AFL Round 19

[yamahamoto]

8 of that behinds was in the last quarter when the rain was pouring down. Not a true reflection of the match. They got 13.8 by the end of 3rd quarter. Fairly accurate then

 

[KardiniaPark]

West Coast -15.5 looks the best of the weekend. GC are still fading in games, in the last 5 weeks their opponents have had 20 more scoring shots in Q4. It won't take much for West Coast to open them up over there even if it is tight up until 3/4 time.

 

[chrisdon16]

Looking at Twitter and all the players support of Hirdy, I honestly think the players will come out and play for him on Sunday and have a positive affect, not a negative like the bookies are implying. Just like against Fremantle when the saga started

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think you'd be mad to find a reason to back either of them this week.

 

[Lensen]

collingwood being poo and essendon not so much is a good enough reason to back the dons at $2+ IMO

 

[KardiniaPark]

I understand that, and in a perfect world you would. But the shit storm is too much to ignore imo.

 

[chrisdon16]

$100 on dons @ $2. No more

 

[GROTTO]

The big 3 should win this week, paying $1.75, we are slowly getting to stage though were early bets during the week could come unstuck by Top teams resting players and bottom teams preparing for next year.I think back to 2011 and the Hawks rested all their top stars and almost lost to GC (back when they were less than abysmal) and the Pies allowed themselves to be gang r*ped by the Cats in the last round of the year.

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

Bets for the round:
St Kilda +31.5/West coast -15.5 @ $3.65, plus singles.

Hawthorn
West Coast
Sydney
All win @ $1.90

I really like your St.Kilda bet and have copied it (although I bought 33.5 points on a gut feel).

The 2 biggest drivers for me are that Brisbane's biggest win this year was by 33 points to the GC and that St.Kilda have won the last 4 against Brisbane, with the last 3 all at the GABBA. I admit that goes back to 2009 though...

 

[Willzzz]

I've already gotten on Port Adelaide @ $1.87 (With Luxbet on Tuesday) & Carl/Freo Games Under 170.5 (With Bet365, it's gone even further down to 167.5 now).

I know people look at Freo games and immediately think Under, but the game is played at Etiahd and of the 40-odd games played there this year, only 2 have gone under 170 points.
Also the last time Freo played at Etihad, they beat the Doggies 106-78 (184 Points).
Think it's way too hard to be chipping the ball around at Eithad cause of the shallow pockets that exist and both teams should score 85+.

 

[Lensen]

do you mean over. because if so it's 165.5 at the tab

 

[KardiniaPark]

I've already gotten on Port Adelaide @ $1.87 (With Luxbet on Tuesday) & Carl/Freo Games Under 170.5 (With Bet365, it's gone even further down to 167.5 now).

I know people look at Freo games and immediately think Under, but the game is played at Etiahd and of the 40-odd games played there this year, only 2 have gone under 170 points.
Also the last time Freo played at Etihad, they beat the Doggies 106-78 (184 Points).
Think it's way too hard to be chipping the ball around at Eithad cause of the shallow pockets that exist and both teams should score 85+.

So you mean over 170.5?

 

[Nothing]

Carl/Freo Games Under 170.5 (With Bet365, it's gone even further down to 167.5 now).

I know people look at Freo games and immediately think Under, but the game is played at Etiahd and of the 40-odd games played there this year, only 2 have gone under 170 points.
Also the last time Freo played at Etihad, they beat the Doggies 106-78 (184 Points).
Think it's way too hard to be chipping the ball around at Eithad cause of the shallow pockets that exist and both teams should score 85+.

So you've backed under and you think it will go over. Brilliant.

 

[KardiniaPark]

So you've backed under and you think it will go over. Brilliant.

Fading himself for profit?

 

[DragzLS1]

Essendon may have a positive effect on the playing group. All this talk about stripping points ect would give them more of a reason to take their frustration out.. Stil, prob wont touch this game unless its a cheeky $10 on a 40+ win..

North at the line look value
into west coast at the line
into syney head to head

 

[robertbn]

My algorithm suggests some big bets this week:

29% on the Kangaroos at $3.69 - big boost to their rating after last week's demolition, and a considerable home ground advantage
35% on West Coast at $1.465 - good odds against Gold Coast
12% on Carlton at $1.833 - worth it against a travelling Fremantle
4% on the Bulldogs at $8.36 - worth a cheeky bet
27% on Adelaide at $2.06 - the model has them as favourites in the derby.

All odds from Pinnacle

See http://aflpredictions.wordpress.com for more discussion of the round, tips and bets.

 

[anabac]

Did you say you backed the under and then made a solid argument for the over?

 

[Lensen]

My algorithm suggests some big bets this week:

29% on the Kangaroos at $3.69 - big boost to their rating after last week's demolition, and a considerable home ground advantage
35% on West Coast at $1.465 - good odds against Gold Coast
12% on Carlton at $1.833 - worth it against a travelling Fremantle
4% on the Bulldogs at $8.36 - worth a cheeky bet
27% on Adelaide at $2.06 - the model has them as favourites in the derby.

All odds from Pinnacle

See http://aflpredictions.wordpress.com for more discussion of the round, tips and bets.

what do the percentages relate to? can't be chances of winning as betting on most of those would be dumb. can't be the % of bankroll as it adds up to 107%

 

[chrisdon16]

... Also,

Geelong/Hawthorn/Sydney @ $1.75...

... Geelong/Hawthorne/West Coast/Sydney @ $2.50

 

[KardiniaPark]

what do the percentages relate to? can't be chances of winning as betting on most of those would be dumb. can't be the % of bankroll as it adds up to 107%

It obviously refers to the -----




* I will come back and edit this post when we have the answer so that in 2 years time someone comes back to read the thread and I make lenny look stupid for not knowing. #Winning

 

[Willzzz]

do you mean over. because if so it's 165.5 at the tab

Yep, I meant over. I took it on Bet365 Monday. Would have rather taken the 165.5 but too late now.
Still think the OVER 170.5 will get up though.

EDIT: Sorry, my mistake.
Jeez, seems like you guys are hanging on my every word. 5 minutes after the post and I've already got 4 people correcting me.

Anyways, I also like Melbourne this week. Not sure a team who hasn't won in the past year should be favourites against anyone.
Can't see who else is going to kick a goal for GWS if Cameron is well held.
GWS Under 96 is also worth a look IMO.

 

[robertbn]

what do the percentages relate to? can't be chances of winning as betting on most of those would be dumb. can't be the % of bankroll as it adds up to 107%

Sorry, I didn't want to ramble too much about the details. Each percentage given is the Kelly fraction of the pot (which should be a certain fraction - say, 1/5 - of your total bankroll). It does add up to more than 100% this week because all games are assessed independently, so it happens occasionally.

See http://aflpredictions.wordpress.com/how-to-bet/ for more information.

I hope that makes sense!

 

[yamahamoto]

How does Swallow missing affect the prediction. He is their leading clearance player and very consistent AND he hasn't missed a game in like 3-4 years.

 

[GROTTO]

How does Swallow missing affect the prediction. He is their leading clearance player and very consistent AND he hasn't missed a game in like 3-4 years.

Their number one player in disposals. Number one Tackler

 

[treefingers]

North Melbourne to lead at qtr time and lose - $4. Not bad considering they fall apart after half time each week.