Preview AFL Round 20 - Geelong v Fremantle, Simonds Stadium, 7:40PM Saturday 9 August

[Pure_Ownage]

AFL Round 20
Geelong V Fremantle​

--------- V ---------

________________________________________________________​

Saturday August 9
Simonds Stadium 7:40 PM (Local Time)
Geelong Forecast Geelong Radar​

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Big game, huge game.

Ladder wise will probably decide our top 2 chances but also a big test of form leading into the finals against a side that has had it over us recently.

Ins and outs and all other preview discussion here.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

We'll win the 2014 premiership.

 

[Glassjaw]

I want to beat the campaigners in Perth in a final.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I want to beat the campaigners in Perth in a final.

Won't happen. They'll be facing Sydney up north.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

More or less confident about this one. I'd be surprised if Freo knock us over twice in a row at home. If tonight is anything to go by, our form is improving at the right time, and we have best 22 on the park for the first time this season. If Pavlich misses from concussion, then I like our chances even better. That said, Scott will have to tweak the game plan, as ours clearly doesn't match up well against Freo. I assume he and the coaching staff will try to address this - they must be aware of the problem.

Possibly Simpson in for this one, to try and nullify Sandilands. Which would see Blitz out for the week. No other change. Murdoch has been the weak link for me, but he played well tonight and should absolutely keep his spot. So no other change to consider, bar injury.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Some key things for me.

1. Firstly, must win clearances. The last few games they have always beaten us in the midfield, particularly when the game has been close. We wee much better in the midfield tonight and it gives me confidence, but it must continue next week.

2. Tactically, we must play different. Apart from the midfield issues (and past ruck issues) we lose to Freo because we bomb the ball in to a defence they have flooded, nullifying Hawkins advantage and allowing them to hit us with small quick forwards on the counter attack. This is why clearances are important because we must be getting the ball in before their spare defenders get back. Of the last couple of years we have built our play against rebound from the back 50, which against most sides makes sense as we have the best defence in comp and some very good decision makes back there who open space upfield. But this doesnt work as well against Freo as it gives them time to flood their back half. If we get quick ball in we can and will win the game. Dawson is average, and McPharlin while he is a champion player who I respect a lot, his body is done and he is about as finished as Mooney was in 2011 and Scarlett in 2012. Hawkins will kick a bag on them both but he must get quick ball for 1 on 1s. Johnson and Duffield are very good zonal defenders, they excel at reading the play and picking off intercept ball and attacking back forward, but separate them from the others and in 1 on 1s they are very vulnerable.

3. There can be no 'middle speed' play this game. We must play very fast, or very slow, at all times. When we win clearances, as fast as possible to a 6 on 6 forward line. Otherwise no kicking at the wall, kick sideways, switch play to opposite sides, own posession and force the spare defenders to move out of the space to cover players as we move the ball aound, opening up space in behind. Carlton did this very well, we should take note.

4. Freo often seem to beat us with goals from stoppages. When we play a +1 player it always seems to be across half back. Against Freo I would scrap that, and if we want to play a +1 player, play him on the defensive side of stoppages, particularly at throw ins, as their rucks excel at hitting a moving player from throw ins who is moving into space behind the stoppage.

5. Matchup wise Guthrie goes with Fyfe everywhere (fortunately Guthrie is used to playing on the last line so if Fyfe drags him deep he won't be worried), Kelly or Enright to the hobbit. The biggest risk, apart from losing the game, is SJ losing his cool and belting someone and getting suspended o giving away crucial frees. Freo know his propensity to do this hence why they always tag him rather than Selwood. Firstly, the coaches need to get him to keep his cool. But they should consider when he is tagged sending hum to full forward so Crowley has to defend. Either that or we play a reverse tag in that when Crowley goes to Johnson, another player, be it Selwood or Kelly o Stokes needs to go to Crowley and try and reverse tag him. This will create 4 players at the stoppage instead of 2, meaning more possibility of the extra Geelong player blocking to create space for Johnson.
Rucks are interesting for me. Hopefully HMac is fit as he has clearly been our best ruck all year and is needed. I wonder if they will consider playing all three rucks as a one off to try and win the game. I am not a big fan of it normally but I think it may be the best way to beat Freo given the quality of their rucks and how they score goals from it. Hamish and Dawson are our best two rucks so maybe play all three, although this would be risky in that either Kersten isn't retained (hopefully he stays) or Blitz would need to start as the sub.

We can win this game, for me a lot of it will be decided in the coaches box so hopefully our coaches have brushed up on why Freo keep beating us and have changed some tactics, and hopefully the players have their A game and A grade intensity ready. Of the five games after the bye I always felt this was the one we were most likely to lose, but the reward is there, win it and top 2 is a huge possibility.

 

[Bobby_]

with the current form of Duncan, Motlop, Guthrie and Christensen through midfield at the moment, I wonder if Johnson may be better utilized forward in this game and push Bartel into the middle?
I think he's a better forward than Jimmy and slightly tougher to match up for one of Duffield or Mzungu due to his goal sense in the deep pockets of Kardinia.
It could mean no retaliations against Ballantyne or Crowley as we will need to be at the top of our game the following week (6 day turnaround again) versus Carlton so can't afford to lose Johnson through suspension.

 

[Teriyakicat]

More or less confident about this one. I'd be surprised if Freo knock us over twice in a row at home. If tonight is anything to go by, our form is improving at the right time, and we have best 22 on the park for the first time this season. If Pavlich misses from concussion, then I like our chances even better. That said, Scott will have to tweak the game plan, as ours clearly doesn't match up well against Freo. I assume he and the coaching staff will try to address this - they must be aware of the problem.

Possibly Simpson in for this one, to try and nullify Sandilands. Which would see Blitz out for the week. No other change. Murdoch has been the weak link for me, but he played well tonight and should absolutely keep his spot. So no other change to consider, bar injury.

Not Blicavs out- no. Never!
We'll have to wait and see how Simpson and HMac pull up during the week. Would love to have all 3 available but not sure how to work it. Blics as sub, maybe?
SJ might get a shake of the head from the MRP for another knee in the chest- which will put the Crowley blowtorch on Selwood and I don't think he handles Crowley any better than SJ does. Plus we need to keep Selwood's MRP record clean for the Brownlow eligibility. I'd be happy if we have SJ a week off, regardless, if protecting the skipper wasn't so important.

 

[Teriyakicat]

with the current form of Duncan, Motlop, Guthrie and Christensen through midfield at the moment, I wonder if Johnson may be better utilized forward in this game and push Bartel into the middle?
I think he's a better forward than Jimmy and slightly tougher to match up for one of Duffield or Mzungu due to his goal sense in the deep pockets of Kardinia.
It could mean no retaliations against Ballantyne or Crowley as we will need to be at the top of our game the following week (6 day turnaround again) versus Carlton so can't afford to lose Johnson through suspension.

That worked well when Scott pushed Selwood up forward early in the season and forced his tagger to match up elsewhere, didn't it? It's certainly something worth thinking about, Bobby.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Some key things for me.

1. Firstly, must win clearances. The last few games they have always beaten us in the midfield, particularly when the game has been close. We wee much better in the midfield tonight and it gives me confidence, but it must continue next week.

2. Tactically, we must play different. Apart from the midfield issues (and past ruck issues) we lose to Freo because we bomb the ball in to a defence they have flooded, nullifying Hawkins advantage and allowing them to hit us with small quick forwards on the counter attack. This is why clearances are important because we must be getting the ball in before their spare defenders get back. Of the last couple of years we have built our play against rebound from the back 50, which against most sides makes sense as we have the best defence in comp and some very good decision makes back there who open space upfield. But this doesnt work as well against Freo as it gives them time to flood their back half. If we get quick ball in we can and will win the game. Dawson is average, and McPharlin while he is a champion player who I respect a lot, his body is done and he is about as finished as Mooney was in 2011 and Scarlett in 2012. Hawkins will kick a bag on them both but he must get quick ball for 1 on 1s. Johnson and Duffield are very good zonal defenders, they excel at reading the play and picking off intercept ball and attacking back forward, but separate them from the others and in 1 on 1s they are very vulnerable.

3. There can be no 'middle speed' play this game. We must play very fast, or very slow, at all times. When we win clearances, as fast as possible to a 6 on 6 forward line. Otherwise no kicking at the wall, kick sideways, switch play to opposite sides, own posession and force the spare defenders to move out of the space to cover players as we move the ball aound, opening up space in behind. Carlton did this very well, we should take note.

4. Freo often seem to beat us with goals from stoppages. When we play a +1 player it always seems to be across half back. Against Freo I would scrap that, and if we want to play a +1 player, play him on the defensive side of stoppages, particularly at throw ins, as their rucks excel at hitting a moving player from throw ins who is moving into space behind the stoppage.

5. Matchup wise Guthrie goes with Fyfe everywhere (fortunately Guthrie is used to playing on the last line so if Fyfe drags him deep he won't be worried), Kelly or Enright to the hobbit. The biggest risk, apart from losing the game, is SJ losing his cool and belting someone and getting suspended o giving away crucial frees. Freo know his propensity to do this hence why they always tag him rather than Selwood. Firstly, the coaches need to get him to keep his cool. But they should consider when he is tagged sending hum to full forward so Crowley has to defend. Either that or we play a reverse tag in that when Crowley goes to Johnson, another player, be it Selwood or Kelly o Stokes needs to go to Crowley and try and reverse tag him. This will create 4 players at the stoppage instead of 2, meaning more possibility of the extra Geelong player blocking to create space for Johnson.
Rucks are interesting for me. Hopefully HMac is fit as he has clearly been our best ruck all year and is needed. I wonder if they will consider playing all three rucks as a one off to try and win the game. I am not a big fan of it normally but I think it may be the best way to beat Freo given the quality of their rucks and how they score goals from it. Hamish and Dawson are our best two rucks so maybe play all three, although this would be risky in that either Kersten isn't retained (hopefully he stays) or Blitz would need to start as the sub.

We can win this game, for me a lot of it will be decided in the coaches box so hopefully our coaches have brushed up on why Freo keep beating us and have changed some tactics, and hopefully the players have their A game and A grade intensity ready. Of the five games after the bye I always felt this was the one we were most likely to lose, but the reward is there, win it and top 2 is a huge possibility.

Ripper post, PO. Very calculating and tactically very clever. I hope Scotty reads stuff like this

 

[DardySingh360]

Well, the next instalment huh? Bloody hell this is just about as big as it gets in H&A games, good luck, I fear you guys might do a number on us here.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

4Rucks are interesting for me. Hopefully HMac is fit as he has clearly been our best ruck all year and is needed. I wonder if they will consider playing all three rucks as a one off to try and win the game. I am not a big fan of it normally but I think it may be the best way to beat Freo given the quality of their rucks and how they score goals from it. Hamish and Dawson are our best two rucks so maybe play all three, although this would be risky in that either Kersten isn't retained (hopefully he stays) or Blitz would need to start as the sub.

.

Awesome post.Who would come out of the side if we played both simpson and HMac ? horlin smith out and varcoe as the sub ?

Bicavs can play on the wing so hes no issue for me

I also think if we only play one of them against Freo it should be Simpson

 

[Teriyakicat]

Awesome post.Who would come out of the side if we played both simpson and HMac ? horlin smith out and varcoe as the sub ?

Bicavs can play on the wing so hes no issue for me

I also think if we only play one of them against Freo it should be Simpson

That's a tough one, geelong crazy. Firstly, I don't think Varcoe would make a good sub. Perhaps, as someone mentioned earlier today, Stokesy- the Super Sub

As for the ruck- while Hamish DOES offer more around the ground, he gets a licking from Sandilands in the ruck and the Freo mids get first choice of the ball on a silver platter- so we have to decide whether we want Simpson in to attempt to nullify Sandi's hitouts plus Hamish to rest Simmo- or if we're brave enough to throw Blitz to the wolves ...errr... make that "wolf" and try to run with Sandi around the ground and leave Hamish to just ruck with Simpson dropped or vice versa. Sandilands is a pretty mean machine when he gets his wheels on but if Blitz can run with him and drop in the hole in front of him, he could prevent Sandilands taking those marks in defence or up in the forward line- wherever he runs for a rest. So we might be better off with a Simpson/Blicavs combination, I think- rather than a Hamish/Blicavs.

Who knows? The MC may just decide on all 3! Let's hope the choice hasn't been made for us via the ankle injury to Hamish.

 

[FredLeDeux]

That's a tough one, geelong crazy. Firstly, I don't think Varcoe would make a good sub. Perhaps, as someone mentioned earlier today, Stokesy- the Super Sub

As for the ruck- while Hamish DOES offer more around the ground, he gets a licking from Sandilands in the ruck and the Freo mids get first choice of the ball on a silver platter- so we have to decide whether we want Simpson in to attempt to nullify Sandi's hitouts plus Hamish to rest Simmo- or if we're brave enough to throw Blitz to the wolves ...errr... make that "wolf" and try to run with Sandi around the ground and leave Hamish to just ruck with Simpson dropped or vice versa. Sandilands is a pretty mean machine when he gets his wheels on but if Blitz can run with him and drop in the hole in front of him, he could prevent Sandilands taking those marks in defence or up in the forward line- wherever he runs for a rest. So we might be better off with a Simpson/Blicavs combination, I think- rather than a Hamish/Blicavs.

Who knows? The MC may just decide on all 3! Let's hope the choice hasn't been made for us via the ankle injury to Hamish.

Didn't happen earlier this year, they broke even in the ruck and around the ground. The problem then was Clarke rolling Simpson/Blicavs.

 

[cynical]

Blicavs out, he is a huge liability against a decent ruck, 6 hitouts against Daw and Goldie is woeful. Surely the fanbois have to agree his game against North wasn't good enough as a ruck.

Simpson was poor early but when Goldie slowed a bit he did well in the ruck.

I'd also swap Kersten with Brown. Kersten is just running out of gas, his best is better than Browns but Brown has more preseasons and I think his good form in the VFL should get him at least 2 weeks.

Varcoe was good last week but he was back to being poor, still craps himself too much. That handball to Simpson in the first quarter was pathetic.

Ins HMac, Brown
Outs Blicavs, Kersten
sub Varcoe

 

[bulletproof]

I'd consider Brown for Kersten and Bews in for a key defender, but I think there will be no change.

 

[catempire]

I'd consider Brown for Kersten and Bews in for a key defender, but I think there will be no change.

HMac mate.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Didn't happen earlier this year, they broke even in the ruck and around the ground. The problem then was Clarke rolling Simpson/Blicavs.

Thanks Fred- guess I should check my stats better, hey?

 

[catempire]

No chance Kersten will be dropped, but equally, there'd be no chance Brown or Walker would be forgiven a 5 possession, 1 mark, 1 goal AFL match. Just shows how hard it is for a young key forward to find consistency at AFL level.

 

[bulletproof]

HMac mate.

Forgot him! Any word on why he missed?

Simpson battled on gamely last night but I think Mcintosh is ahead of him.

 

[Hoffy95]

God I hope we blow them off the park.

 

[Turbocat]

I cant deny we have a winning side that wins more than loses but not enjoying it. Our footwork , our skills seemed rusty V North but good thing was we did win coming of the bye.

Im not overly happy with our forwardline.

Kersten is the future but atm he is not involved enough , so when he gets a shot even he , with his good foot , looks under pressure. "Better get this I don't have that many shots"

Im concerned Jimmy has lost his spring and really using every bit football nous and experience to get by. Is he as good over head as he once was ? I don't think so and as a consequence we do not have enough marking option's and are to Hawkins centric...which Freo will love.

The converse to this is we are getting more goals out of Duncan , Caddy is starting to look a forward option , Bundys foot will get better. We do look like there is up side on the small front. Stokes? Has he lost form or carrying an injury?

Freos form has been rubbish too yet would anyone be surprised if they turn up and on to play us? Pavlich Out?

I guess this game still gets back to what most have said . Control the ruck even if you can t win it. Simpson took one good mark last night. Do it more and he looks like a player . But when he he gets in the middle of players I dread an error that will be "wood" like , its not his role. Neutralize Sandilands and Freo lose a big goal advantage V us. How many times have they setup from a stopage and kicked goals.

Our young mids are progressing , and I do like that they are taking the burden of SJ and Sel. I just wish we has another couple locked in and experienced. Bews looks the only one who may come in if required.

I think we can beat Freo this week. Will be convincing or have a big impact on Sept? Yet to be shown

 

[FredLeDeux]

Stokes? Has he lost form or carrying an injury?

Neither. Two excellent games since he returned, and crucial feed/link-up work with our runners last night in the absence of Varcoe.

 

[winty]

Changes between last night's side and the last time we played Freo:

In: Caddy Christensen Stokes Kersten
Out: Hunt Bews Sheringham McIntosh.

Motlop was playing his 2nd game of the year too.

Some pretty handy inclusions there.