Preview QF2 Geelong v Port Adelaide Thursday Sept 5 2024 @ AO 7:40 pm

[standupand]

You omitted one of my favourite matches ever.

2011 GF. Were we slight underdogs going in to that match?

 

[BigCat1]

not the point though when the team was 100 up at half time! Whether we took the foot off, or the depleted bench, that game was virtually meaningless other than some % gain, and the 4 points, which is always nice.

Except in reality it wasn’t. Freo were favourites and a 120 point win could have reshaped the finals.

 

[Play it Sam]

I don't care what Kenny says about the past, I like looking at their last five weeks, irrespective of personnel- right up until Houston suspended and Farrell injured and Dixon don't know (being a dix?) 2 home games got them:

W Freo 20
W Adelaide 22
W Melbs 2
W Swans 112
W Carlton 14

So beside the anomaly of mincemeating the Swans, who were slumped and lost their previous games, the other wins don't exactly scream cream of the crop - even if winning form is good form. We might be the underdogs, but we're underestimated if they only beat these others by 2-4 goals, and we lost to them by 6 points.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Ridiculous decision really.

Leaving Rohan out is also just as bad. He is about the only player that puts both pressure on and most importantly competes in the air. An absolute must in finals. There is not one player outside of Danger that brings the ball to ground. They will intercept all night.

As soon as sides ramp up the pressure to a finals like tempo we can’t go with them. The last three weeks have been just as bad as any patches of good in those games. Our backline is like Swiss cheese when we drop off up the ground. Esp if Stewy is playing sweeper at contests.

I know the team isn’t good enough but this is so 2012-2019. Like a reoccurring nightmare. Just play the best 22 and when we are not good enough at least we can all live with it. I’ll be physically ill if Charlotte Dixon kicks 3 or 4.

Did you watch rohan in the vfl on the weekend? That was a cooked performance..no way you could pick him over henry or mannagh based on that.

The key back sdk issue is more nuanced because hes clearly best 22 but i expect he is a late in anyway.

This is all on our MF to break even and then our ball use. If guys like miers and mannagh get enough of it between the arcs we wont bomb it in and will bypass their interceptors. And one on one their defenders are very gettable.

 

[And_ROOS]

We're tempting fate, one of Dixon or Sav will be BOG.

Not because they're any good, it's just the way we roll. After all the talk of Butters, Rozee, & JHF, it'll be a spud that decides the game. It's the Geelong way.

Call it 'the Dennis Armfield effect'

Port have had the same issue though and some of my Port mates are worried Neale is going to become the next Hawkins and kicks 5 and sets up 5, or Humphries does an Andrew McLeod and has 32 off half back, sets up 15 goals and has a ridiculous game.

I love that both sets of supporters worry someone is due a break out game.

I honestly think this game screams Cameron kicking 7. Ports defense is in trouble.

 

[Vdubs]

Except in reality it wasn’t. Freo were favourites and a 120 point win could have reshaped the finals.

And with the 2 off, we were a bit short of that. Anyway, we have to repay Port for beating us in Geelong...last time that happened and we played them again, it was in a final, and that ended up really well for us...119.

 

[TheCattery2007]

I’m extremely optimistic.

None of Sav, Evans and Narkle would be best 22 for the Cats. They’ve lost Houston, a quality player.

Our midfield is unrecognisable to the one that lost to them by 6 points. We had C. Guthrie, Mullin, Blitz, Parf, J. Clark, Duncan and MOC going through the midfield. None of those players will play midfield tomorrow.

Bring it on!


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Vdubs]

Does anyone have the stats on our THURSDAY night performances historically?
Might be a big sample, but I'd guess we are very good, even away, even in SA, but who knows?
Anything positive is good value.

 

[Play it Sam]

Port have had the same issue though and some of my Port mates are worried Neale is going to become the next Hawkins and kicks 5 and sets up 5, or Humphries does an Andrew McLeod and has 32 off half back, sets up 15 goals and has a ridiculous game.

I love that both sets of supporters worry someone is due a break out game.

I honestly think this game screams Cameron kicking 7. Ports defense is in trouble.

Let's face it, it's all gut feelings and supposition, confirmation bias etc. Even the old supposed never walk alone crowd advantage can have a reverse effect on visitors motivation. So while we are guessing- I feel it in my waters that Bruhn will kill them, he's building. And Mannagh the fighter, for the stealth of he's unknown to them.
Cameron, Danger, all systems go. Hope we can both be right.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Port have had the same issue though and some of my Port mates are worried Neale is going to become the next Hawkins and kicks 5 and sets up 5, or Humphries does an Andrew McLeod and has 32 off half back, sets up 15 goals and has a ridiculous game.

I love that both sets of supporters worry someone is due a break out game.

I honestly think this game screams Cameron kicking 7. Ports defense is in trouble.

Our issue is their midfield.

Theirs is cameron and our small forwards who are in elite form.

Whoever can cover their weak area better and get the game on their terms will win it.

 

[CHAWKTS]

No change - SDK travelled but named emergency.

Just catching up with news now. Not surprised as I thought the decision was between Stanley and SDK. Late change I hope to be honest

 

[Play it Sam]

Our issue is their midfield.

Theirs is cameron and our small forwards who are in elite form.

Whoever can cover their weak area better and get the game on their terms will win it.

Can do it with contested ball- if I see them standing back on the outside while Port waltzes it out, I'm off to JB for a new TV on Friday. Give me chaos, in tight, hustle, get over the ball, out then fair delivery inside 50, you good things.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Plenty of people writing Geelong off this year. They do it at their peril.

Port's demolition of the Swans is a bit of a false dawn, I reckon.

I'm more worried about their demolition of the dogs.

 

[ClintEastwood]

Port have had the same issue though and some of my Port mates are worried Neale is going to become the next Hawkins and kicks 5 and sets up 5, or Humphries does an Andrew McLeod and has 32 off half back, sets up 15 goals and has a ridiculous game.

I love that both sets of supporters worry someone is due a break out game.

I honestly think this game screams Cameron kicking 7. Ports defense is in trouble.

Who knows ... Cameron could kick a bag, it's possible. I'm not sure why it's screaming to you though.
This is Port's defensive profile over the last 8 rounds, as shown on 360 the other night:

Port's Defensive Profile
Round 16-24

Points Against: #1
Opposition Goal per inside 50%: #1
Inside 50s conceded: #3
Opposition half back to inside 50%: #3

Also not sure why our pulverizing of the Swans is "an anomaly", just because it suits your narrative. Noone else seems to have managed that anomaly.

That said though, good luck for tomorrow.

 

[Finknottle]

who is more badass - JHF or Tom Atkins?

who is more capable of doing a Mark Bos at opening bounce... god i miss the 1980s footy

In what way? Atkins is hard working and tackling is his thing but he won't hurt you in other ways. Horne-Francis is a gun midfielder, both inside and outside, covers the ground well and goes forward and kicks goals. That's why he was in the All Australian team. Both are tough but fair players. Other than that there is no comparison.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

In what way? Atkins is hard working and tackling is his thing but he won't hurt you in other ways. Horne-Francis is a gun midfielder, both inside and outside, covers the ground well and goes forward and kicks goals. That's why he was in the All Australian team. Both are tough but fair players. Other than that there is no comparison.

 

[Cataholic]

Who knows ... Cameron could kick a bag, it's possible. I'm not sure why it's screaming to you though.
This is Port's defensive profile over the last 8 rounds, as shown on 360 the other night:

Port's Defensive Profile
Round 16-24

Points Against: #1
Opposition Goal per inside 50%: #1
Inside 50s conceded: #3
Opposition half back to inside 50%: #3

Also not sure why our pulverizing of the Swans is "an anomaly", just because it suits your narrative. Noone else seems to have managed that anomaly.

That said though, good luck for tomorrow.

An anomaly because you didn't do that to anyone else. No narrative, just a fact.

 

[Finknottle]

Yeah 15 goal win, terribly disappointing

Geelong beat WC by 15 goals, Hawthorn beat NM by over 20 goals. I think that says more about WC and NM.
Ollie Henry kicked a swag of goals against WC after doing bugger all for several weeks. Does that mean he has turned the corner? I hope so.

 

[nohairandfair]

Houston and Farrell have been their best two running defenders, both with penetrating and damaging kicks… we’ve got very lucky with those two out.

Expecting SDK to be a late in. It’s going to be dry and warm with just a zephyr, it should be a belter with plenty of highlights.

Quietly optimistic.

 

[ClintEastwood]

An anomaly because you didn't do that to anyone else. No narrative, just a fact.

Yeah nice try. We may not have beaten anyone else by over 100 this season, but to suggest they were all close games is not right. Here are some margins:

Sydney 112
Essendon 69
North 59
WC 50
Bulldogs 48
Richmond 41


On the other hand, of Sydney's mere 6 losses, none of the other margins even cracked the 40:

Port 112
WB 39
Richmond 5
Brisbane 2
St Kilda 2
Freo 1

Anomaly? Narrative.

Source: AFL Tables

 

[Finknottle]

View attachment 2100781

Woops, Horne-Francis was in the squad but not the final 22. Zak Butters made the team but I think JHF is a better player. He's the player I would tag and maybe that's a good use of Atkins.

 

[Seeds]

Scott couldnt drop his favourite blicavs so now one of our young guns sdk is missing in a critical final.

Just drop blicavs already. He no longer has a role to play. Madness to think he is a better defender then sdk.

 

[Seeds]

And bews farwell game has turned into a 4 game farewell tour which includes a final.

 

[Seeds]

No late change, Bews the sub

I didnt thin subs get chosen until tomorrow.

 

[catsfootyfan89]

Scott couldnt drop his favourite blicavs so now one of our young guns sdk is missing in a critical final.

Just drop blicavs already. He no longer has a role to play. Madness to think he is a better defender then sdk.

Not sure I can fully agree here, but I know where you're coming from.

SDK hasn't been the same player since he got his face caved in. He just isn't the same. He doesn't affect games in the same way. His first season was absolutely stellar. I couldn't remember the last time a first-season player looked so good in the blue and white. Impacted contests, took contested marks in high-pressure situations, stayed cool under pressure, and sometimes even snuck forward to produce offense too.

Post face-injury, he is just 25% off his game. Doesn't pop up as often, doesn't go for those hail-Mary one-on-ones as much, doesn't put himself in harm's way as much. He's been a lot more likely to play 'nothing' games where he's just not really involved in a key way.

Blicavs, for all of his flaws, (in my opinion) is a safe bet. And because he's so positionally versatile, it just makes him a swisse army knife you can't leave the house without. If he's having a great game, you can slot him into the role where the team needs him most. And if he's a little off his tucker, you can put him somewhere out of harm's way where he wont be a liability.

You see the same thing in the workplace sometimes. You can be more valuable as a jack-of-all trades even if you're not an expert in anything. I have to believe the club has more knowledge than us, and this likely leverages their decisions.