Game Day AFL Round 4 - Matchday Discussion Collingwood@Adelaide(Adelaide Oval – 7:50PM EST)

[jmac70]

It's hammer time.

Pitty we're the nail


These are the games when Mick would pull something out of his ass, love him or hate him he deserves massive credit as a coach for that.

We'll fight but we'll lose by 6 goals.

Oh man, please no more Mick!

 

[jmac70]

Adelaide has always scared me.

It seems one power failure away from tourists being salted and stored in a vault for future consumption.

Collingwood by 17 points.

That’s been happening for decades...

 

[Maggie5]

Well I am ready, going to Airport, park car, catch plane. Fingers crossed I keep my trips to Adelaide with the Pies winning intact.

Go Pies!

 

[jonbe54]

Oh man, please no more Mick!

Couldn't agree more, Mick was a great coach at Wet Toast - but he had his pick of the country's elite talent thanks to the AFL.
He was a good coach at Collingwood but was facing the sack before Ed stepped in and saved his bacon, then he decided he better abandon his belief that rucks weren't important and drafted Jolly.

 

[Deleted member 133504]

Well I am ready, going to Airport, park car, catch plane. Fingers crossed I keep my trips to Adelaide with the Pies winning intact.

Go Pies!

What were the other games you went to? Almost went to the 2002 qualifying final as a kid, but the grandfather had a crook shoulder and couldnt travel.

 

[Maggie5]

What were the other games you went to? Almost went to the 2002 qualifying final as a kid, but the grandfather had a crook shoulder and couldnt travel.

Just normal games at the old ground. First time for me at new ground.
Last one was some time ago when they still had the dancers.

 

[jmac70]

Well I am ready, going to Airport, park car, catch plane. Fingers crossed I keep my trips to Adelaide with the Pies winning intact.

Go Pies!

Have a great trip Maggie. Give those Crows fans hell!

 

[DinoSoar]

Well I am ready, going to Airport, park car, catch plane. Fingers crossed I keep my trips to Adelaide with the Pies winning intact.

Go Pies!

Have a good trip and hopefully you’ll remain our good luck charm! I’m just looking forward to a cohesive, team performance against a quality side to assess structure and progression, irrespective of the result (unless we get smashed, then I take no responsibility for my posting ).

Go Pies!!

 

[BPikkers]

Crows have already lost it at the selection table. Going in way too ‘big’. The pies new found speed to run it out of defence easily

 

[Scodog10]

Without Elliott and Fasolo in it's going ot make it that much harder, but it would be VERY Collingwood of us to turn around and win this match.

The line looks good value in this one given the weather conditions and the strength of the Crows midfield. I think they’ll get the job done simply because they’re a good team and that’s what good teams do, but I doubt it’ll be a blowout.

For me in this one my area to watch is the midfield battle and specifically who Pendles goes to. With a full compliment Adelaide’s midfield is top drawer, but without the Crouch’s it’s vulnerable. They have Sloane and Gibbs as reliable 25+ possession ball winners. The rest can get there on a good day and for the most part play roles so it’s very much a case like Carlton last week in that if you nullify one of the big 2 it throws a lot of pressure on the rest to step up.

The obvious one for Pendles to go to is Gibbs. The guys a jet and a huge piece of the puzzle for them, however there is a second option, Greenwood. His contested ball numbers overall this season are flattered by his massive game v Richmond and for his career they make for interesting reading. At home he averages 12cp per game and away from home that drops to 7. Who do you do send our guy too? The individual you might keep to 20 possessions, who can still have an impact with that many, or to the guy that you can keep below 15 who generally averages almost that many in the contest alone? His effective disposal usually sits at just shy of 13 so if you keep that below 7 or 8 that’s a big dent. The wildcard there is obviously the weather.

For mine the structure that allowed us to be so strong forward of the ball was based on our lesser lights having an impact through the middle and Pendles job on Cripps. If we’re to kick a winning score tonight, 80-90 IMO, I think that’s again how we’ll do it so I’m all in on Pendles to Greenwood. If we can then work the others over in the conditions by throwing them to ground in tackles and bodying them whenever possible we’ll eventually be in a position to overrun them. Because they’ll be another mid down on an already depleted group and the ball winning will be left to too few. Don’t expect much from Atkins, Mackay and Seedsman tonight so they lose drive leaving Laird to do a lot of the heavy lifting. With the match conditions and their injuries it’s a good time to catch Adelaide!

Key player, WHE. His run last week was phenomenal! He Blue them away with his work rate which resulted in his goals. IMO, he doesn’t need to be too involved defensively tonight as long as he sticks to structure and plays with width.

FWIW there’s been some speculation on here about Cox out and whoever in, no. The key to tonight is not allowing them clean ball out of the back half because that’s how they’ll get their running game going. Even in the wet they’ll get on the outside because they spread that much better than us. We want the ball on the ground as often as possible to put pressure on the likes of Talia, Hartigan, Kelly and Doedee at ground level. The best way to manufacturer that is to be contesting as many high balls entering F50 as possible. Even if they’re outmarked as long as we get a contest we’re a chance.

Verdict. Pendles to Sloane for a quarter or two then in typical Collingwood fashion he reverts to the status quo ala Maynard v Oliver this won’t even be a semi-permanent role shift, IMO, Brown to WHE and Laird to run amok. Adelaide by 15 points.

 

[CFC2010]

Well I am ready, going to Airport, park car, catch plane. Fingers crossed I keep my trips to Adelaide with the Pies winning intact.

Go Pies!

Have fun Maggie5.......remember no violence

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Expecting us to bring the effort and make it a good contest. But the differential in class will give Adelaide a 5 goal win in the end.

 

[yOssarianLives]

Think we might be in for a bit of a shock here.

Adelaide are not Carlton. We really need to step up even on last week.

Fasolo and Elliott still not playing will hurt us. Don't know why they're not?! Stupid. They should be automatically locked in if fit. Can change games on the back of their own boot meanwhile we have persisted with Stephenson (6 touches last week?) And I don't think we can afford cox in the wet. But Blair might come in for him? Hmmmm... No no no no. I hope not!

Adelaide by 32 points is what my head says.

Heart says Collingwood by 10 goals.

I understand the lack of confidence - a trip to Adelaide's home deck is certainly putting us against the odds. Let's try and be objective it no optimistic. For example, Fasolo is not a automatic selection. Of late, he has had mental and physical issues, seemingly culminating in form not warranting him replacing someone else in the current side. Can't really argue dropping someone from last weeks effort.

On that point, you list Stephenson. Perhaps you are right - however, it could be that his confidence and overall development will benefit from a regular run (up until he needs a rest)?

I am sure you meant someone else other than Elliot as the other lock, given he is injured.

As I say, let's try and be objective whenever we can't be blindly optimistic. I hope to be equal parts both but probably a natural born optimist!

Go Pies!

 

[Kirby]

Well I am ready, going to Airport, park car, catch plane. Fingers crossed I keep my trips to Adelaide with the Pies winning intact.

Go Pies!

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Surely Maynard goes to one of Gibbs or Sloan?

 

[Hardas]

I'm done with pretending to be balanced and cautious and sensible...

I think we are starting to click. Sidey is playing like a superstar this year - and I never use that word! The players love having Murray in the team. Aish and Schaz are starting to look like confident mature footballers. Grundy is smashing all and sundry. And JDG is bursting to play.

I think we'll win this.

I think it's possible...(that's the best I can manage for now).

 

[Didstar]

The line looks good value in this one given the weather conditions and the strength of the Crows midfield. I think they’ll get the job done simply because they’re a good team and that’s what good teams do, but I doubt it’ll be a blowout.

For me in this one my area to watch is the midfield battle and specifically who Pendles goes to. With a full compliment Adelaide’s midfield is top drawer, but without the Crouch’s it’s vulnerable. They have Sloane and Gibbs as reliable 25+ possession ball winners. The rest can get there on a good day and for the most part play roles so it’s very much a case like Carlton last week in that if you nullify one of the big 2 it throws a lot of pressure on the rest to step up.

The obvious one for Pendles to go to is Gibbs. The guys a jet and a huge piece of the puzzle for them, however there is a second option, Greenwood. His contested ball numbers overall this season are flattered by his massive game v Richmond and for his career they make for interesting reading. At home he averages 12cp per game and away from home that drops to 7. Who do you do send our guy too? The individual you might keep to 20 possessions, who can still have an impact with that many, or to the guy that you can keep below 15 who generally averages almost that many in the contest alone? His effective disposal usually sits at just shy of 13 so if you keep that below 7 or 8 that’s a big dent. The wildcard there is obviously the weather.

For mine the structure that allowed us to be so strong forward of the ball was based on our lesser lights having an impact through the middle and Pendles job on Cripps. If we’re to kick a winning score tonight, 80-90 IMO, I think that’s again how we’ll do it so I’m all in on Pendles to Greenwood. If we can then work the others over in the conditions by throwing them to ground in tackles and bodying them whenever possible we’ll eventually be in a position to overrun them. Because they’ll be another mid down on an already depleted group and the ball winning will be left to too few. Don’t expect much from Atkins, Mackay and Seedsman tonight so they lose drive leaving Laird to do a lot of the heavy lifting. With the match conditions and their injuries it’s a good time to catch Adelaide!

Key player, WHE. His run last week was phenomenal! He Blue them away with his work rate which resulted in his goals. IMO, he doesn’t need to be too involved defensively tonight as long as he sticks to structure and plays with width.

FWIW there’s been some speculation on here about Cox out and whoever in, no. The key to tonight is not allowing them clean ball out of the back half because that’s how they’ll get their running game going. Even in the wet they’ll get on the outside because they spread that much better than us. We want the ball on the ground as often as possible to put pressure on the likes of Talia, Hartigan, Kelly and Doedee at ground level. The best way to manufacturer that is to be contesting as many high balls entering F50 as possible. Even if they’re outmarked as long as we get a contest we’re a chance.

Verdict. Pendles to Sloane for a quarter or two then in typical Collingwood fashion he reverts to the status quo ala Maynard v Oliver this won’t even be a semi-permanent role shift, IMO, Brown to WHE and Laird to run amok. Adelaide by 15 points.

Really see a lot of merit in Pendles on Greenwood. Gibbs at this stage, unlike Cripps has a more well rounded inside-outside game, so it will be difficult to limit his influence unless Pendles plays a very hard tag, which is unlikely. Limiting Greenwood will impact their contested ball numbers and force him to play a more accountable role to ensure Pendles doesn't influence the result going the other way. Midfield depth is one area we can expose them with the Crouch brothers out and Sloane looking proppy. Would expect Grundy to also provide more at ground level then Jacobs due to his mobility.

 

[ROOINYOU]

in the wet I think it will be a good game. the Crouch bros missing will help the Pies but Adelaide should get up by a couple goals.
Grundy to school Jacobs around the ground.

 

[STAR_SHARROD]

At the airport waiting to board, looking forward to the game tonight. I’m with a few on here, maybe blind faith, but I’m confident we can win this!

 

[good4footy]

Wish i had the positive view on this match as some others. If we played this match 10 times with teams as selected, i suggest we may win twice. That is the level of confidence i have for a win tonight.

 

[JB1975]

Also, if we can get a few forward entries in the first ten minutes of the game, and a few goals to settle my nerves, that'd be much appreciated. Ta Pies.

 

[Finnishpie]

Another 'honorable' 16 point loss I'm thinking.

I’m thinking about 26

 

[Chrispiesssss]

$100 on Collingwood at $5. Who’s with me?

 

[Brad Goodman]

This is one of those games where a strong effort resulting in a loss of 4 goals or fewer is acceptable to me. I know others might not be so forgiving but it is what it is.

 

[DaVe86]

Crows have already lost it at the selection table. Going in way too ‘big’. The pies new found speed to run it out of defence easily

I agree they are too tall. Possibly late change?

We have a short defence, so if the Crows get on top in the midfield and move the ball with their typical precision, then our defence is going to be really stretched.