Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency IX

[Lore]

Spoiler: 2021 Key Dates

AFL TRADE, DRAFT AND FREE AGENCY DATES 2021

Grand Final
Saturday September 25

Draft Combine – Vic Country
Friday October 1

Restricted and Unrestricted Free Agency Window
Friday October 1 – Friday October 8

Delisted Free Agency Window 1
Wednesday October 3 - Monday October 15

Trade Period (picks and players)
Monday October 4 (9am) – Wednesday October 13 (7.30pm)

Draft Combines (States and Regions)
VM: Saturday October 9 (tbc)
Qld: Sunday October 10
Tas: Monday October 11
SA: Saturday October 16
WA: Sunday October 17
NSW&ACT: tbc
NT: will join SA or Qld

Trade Period (picks only)
Monday October 18 – Monday November 15

List Lodgement 1
Friday October 29

Delisted Free Agency Window 1
Wednesday November 3 (9am) – Tuesday November 9 (5pm)

List Lodgement 2 (Final date for primary list delistings)
Wednesday November 10 (2pm)

Delisted Free Agency Window 2
Thursday November 11 (9am) – Monday November 15 (5pm)

Draft Nominations Due
Wednesday November 17 (3pm)

Pre-Season Commences (First to fourth year players)
Monday November 22

National Draft
Round 1: Wednesday November 24 (7pm)
Round 2–end: Thursday November 25 (7pm)

Rookie Upgrade Period
Thursday November 25 (10pm) - Thursday November 25 (11pm)

Delisted Free Agency Window 3
Thursday November 25 (10pm) - Thursday November 25 (11pm)

Pre-Selected Rookie Nominations Due (Includes Academy, Father/Son)
Friday November 26 (12pm) - Friday November 26 (12.30pm)

Preseason Draft
Friday November 26 (3pm)

Pre-Selected Rookie Notification
Friday November 26 (3.15pm)

Rookie Draft
Friday November 26 (3.20pm)

Final List Lodgement
Monday November 29 (4pm)

Pre-Season Commences (All other players)
Monday December 6

Pre-Season Supplemental Selection Period (SSP)
December - March (tbc)

Current Contract Status
2021 Draft Watch
Father/Son and NGA
Adrian Dodoro

 

[Lore]

It should be. One guy was a fixture in a side who made finals 4 or 5 times since his debut, the other couldn't get a game in his side.

I don't see how the fact he went to Gold Coast being relevant in all honesty.

If you told me at any point this year according to the AFL's Free Agency formula that Mabior Chol was being valued at the same level as George Hewett I would have laughed in your face. They're worlds apart as players, hell, Jake Kelly should be getting a better compensation pick than Chol.

The formula is obviously too restrictive and formulaic, there needs to be more nuance in it.

You can't quantify that, and you can't really want the AA selectors to work it out? Or perhaps the Player Ratings on the AFL website? Only mids get Band 1?

If you include games as a metric then you have Zaharakis getting band 1 compensation because he played 200 games.

 

[eth-dog]

You can't quantify that, and you can't really want the AA selectors to work it out? Or perhaps the Player Ratings on the AFL website? Only mids get Band 1?

If you include games as a metric then you have Zaharakis getting band 1 compensation because he played 200 games.

Any football follower worth their salt knows that Hewett and Kelly are better players than Chol. The pair were fixtures in their senior side for the better part of 6 years. Chol is inconsistent as all hell, struggled to get a game on a regular basis (played less than 50% of the games in every single season) and because a team decided to overpay him he's all of a sudden worth the same as Hewett? And more than Kelly?

The formula is clearly broken if this is the case.

 

[Lore]

If you want to fix it, make more bands with smaller ranges. Split each round of the draft in half, and put compensation in reverse ladder order amongst the existing picks in that half.

e.g. If the bottom six teams lost a band 1 FA each, the top 10 would look like:

1. Original pick 1: 18th
2. Compensation pick 1: 18th
3. Compensation pick 2: 17th
4. Original pick 2: 17th
5. Compensation pick 3: 16th
6. Compensation pick 4: 15th
7. Original pick 3: 16th
8. Compensation pick 5: 14th
9. Compensation pick 6: 13th
10. Original pick 2: 15th

Continue the pattern throughout the draft.

Could possibly give two picks as comp for band 1/3/5 as well, like a Band 1 and a Band 2 pick for the Band 1 FA.

Clear as mud

 

[Lore]

Any football follower worth their salt knows that Hewett and Kelly are better players than Chol. The pair were fixtures in their senior side for the better part of 6 years. Chol is inconsistent as all hell, struggled to get a game on a regular basis (played less than 50% of the games in every single season) and because a team decided to overpay him he's all of a sudden worth the same as Hewett? And more than Kelly?

The formula is clearly broken if this is the case.

Any football follower worth their salt probably hasn't watched either of them play

Commentators are garbage but the vast majority of football followers know even less than Jonathon Brown. And judging from the trade board, have no ****ing idea what players are worth anyway.

 

[eth-dog]

If you want to fix it, make more bands with smaller ranges. Split each round of the draft in half, and put compensation in reverse ladder order amongst the existing picks in that half.

e.g. If the bottom six teams lost a band 1 FA each, the top 10 would look like:

1. Original pick 1: 18th
2. Compensation pick 1: 18th
3. Compensation pick 2: 17th
4. Original pick 2: 17th
5. Compensation pick 3: 16th
6. Compensation pick 4: 15th
7. Original pick 3: 16th
8. Compensation pick 5: 14th
9. Compensation pick 6: 13th
10. Original pick 2: 15th

Continue the pattern throughout the draft.

Could possibly give two picks as comp for band 1/3/5 as well, like a Band 1 and a Band 2 pick for the Band 1 FA.

Clear as mud

I think the way they do the bands is fine, it's just bizarre seeing someone like Chol being valued at the same rate as Hewett.

 

[Keystone agony]

Also Sydney didn't want Hewett

Richmond did want Chol and offered him a 2 year deal

Chol should've probably been band 5 but Hewett will go down as the most over rated player on this board

 

[Call Me Cake]

Welcome aboard

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Any football follower worth their salt knows that Hewett and Kelly are better players than Chol. The pair were fixtures in their senior side for the better part of 6 years. Chol is inconsistent as all hell, struggled to get a game on a regular basis (played less than 50% of the games in every single season) and because a team decided to overpay him he's all of a sudden worth the same as Hewett? And more than Kelly?

The formula is clearly broken if this is the case.

There’s no formula.

 

[Lore]

I think the way they do the bands is fine, it's just bizarre seeing someone like Chol being valued at the same rate as Hewett.

He's not. He could be (and likely is) significantly different and he's in the same band. That's not the formula being ****ed (though it could be a bit skewed, it's not as bad as other metrics).

We've got a formula telling us one guy is in the top 30% and one is barely in the top 50% and the band results in giving the former a worse pick than the latter.

There are 351 players currently aged 25 and over.

That means:

Band 1 (0-5%)

= Top 17​

= Pick after their own original pick in the first round​

Band 2 (5-15%)

= Top 18-52​

= Pick after the first round (in reverse ladder order among other end-of-first-round picks)​

Band 3 (15-30%)

= Top 52-105​

= Pick after their own original pick in the second round​

Band 4 (30-50%)

= Top 105-175​

= Pick after the second round (in reverse ladder order among other end-of-first-round picks)​

Band 5 (50-?%)

= Top 175-?​

= Pick after their own original pick in the third round​

(? - 100%)

= ?-351​

= No compensation​

​

​

Formula says 105 = Band 4 says Pick 39
Formula says 175 = Band 4 says Pick 38

 

[Lore]

There’s no formula.

If there wasn't a formula then what was the point of getting Joe's contract restructured to hit Band 1? There is a formula and it can be gamed to produce particular results.

 

[rumply]

View attachment 1251457

Welcome aboard

 

[Call Me Cake]

 

[Godzke]

I think Mahoney is operating Dodoro's smoke machine. Smells too much of "don't force players out of the club, but throw out some chum to see which clubs circle".

If the club doesn't like what comes in, then we stay quiet during trade week and then put Rutten back in front of the camera saying "nah, like i said earlier, our focus was always developing from within"

 

[Foxx]

Play the ball not the man.

Trade next years picks and get more top picks this year. Together with last year's kids, we'll get a group of kids all coming through together.
It also means we'd have a chance to pinch a flag within the next 3-4 years while Merrett and Co are still young enough.

I'd like 3 picks inside 25 this year. How that happens i don't know.

 

[JT_the_Man]

I wouldn’t go trading next years first until next year. Who is to say that the Davey twins don’t fall down the draft board, or we don’t plummet down the ladder? Better to be safe than sorry.

 

[David C]

Any football follower worth their salt knows that Hewett and Kelly are better players than Chol. The pair were fixtures in their senior side for the better part of 6 years. Chol is inconsistent as all hell, struggled to get a game on a regular basis (played less than 50% of the games in every single season) and because a team decided to overpay him he's all of a sudden worth the same as Hewett? And more than Kelly?

The formula is clearly broken if this is the case.

Mate if you look at the Adelaide boards you'll see they wanted to get rid of kelly. You value him. Hewitt is a solid player for mine but nothing special. Chol, who knows, he could be anything or nothing. Salt? Kelly is a good fit for you as you need defenders but don't overrate him.

 

[Lore]

Mate if you look at the Adelaide boards you'll see they wanted to get rid of kelly. You value him. Hewitt is a solid player for mine but nothing special. Chol, who knows, he could be anything or nothing. Salt? Kelly is a good fit for you as you need defenders but don't overrate him.

We were talking about Tim Kelly in the context of how people value players who haven't played many games.

Absolutely nothing to do with Jake Kelly.

 

[eth-dog]

Mate if you look at the Adelaide boards you'll see they wanted to get rid of kelly. You value him. Hewitt is a solid player for mine but nothing special. Chol, who knows, he could be anything or nothing. Salt? Kelly is a good fit for you as you need defenders but don't overrate him.

Mate, Mabior Chol is a massive spud. I'm not overrating him at all, unlike your clear overrating of Mabior Chol who, as I said, is a massive spud.

 

[Zach Package]

Seems like the Swans didn’t even expect getting that much back.

Would suggest whether the club makes an effort to keep the player needs to be a factor in comp as well.

 

[Keystone agony]

It's mainly contract terms and age isn't it?

I think it's almost as fair as your going to get it

One thing I'd like introduced is if you've been delisted than your compensation is less

 

[Lore]

It's mainly contract terms and age isn't it?

I think it's almost as fair as your going to get it

One thing I'd like introduced is if you've been delisted than your compensation is less

Yeah. If you go to the FAQs thread on the trade board, there’s an entire post about free agency & compensation bands with all of the past FAs and what band they got, and another whole post analysing the formula. They’re threadmarked for convenience.

 

[cAsEy_18]

Seems like the Swans didn’t even expect getting that much back.

Would suggest whether the club makes an effort to keep the player needs to be a factor in comp as well.

Well, that would definitely lead to as many 'Oh we were trying to keep him" attempts as those that punch the ball 17x whilst being tackled to try and demonstrate that they're "making a genuine attempt" to get rid of it.

 

[ghostdog]

View attachment 1251457

Welcome aboard

Well, it's more realistic than Bigfoot I suppose

 

[The Donners]

Any football follower worth their salt knows that Hewett and Kelly are better players than Chol. The pair were fixtures in their senior side for the better part of 6 years. Chol is inconsistent as all hell, struggled to get a game on a regular basis (played less than 50% of the games in every single season) and because a team decided to overpay him he's all of a sudden worth the same as Hewett? And more than Kelly?

The formula is clearly broken if this is the case.

I think it’s more about GC. I think Chol has something but you’re right that Kelly and Hewett should net more than Chol to the reasons you gave.

 

[boncer34]

Mate if you look at the Adelaide boards you'll see they wanted to get rid of kelly. You value him. Hewitt is a solid player for mine but nothing special. Chol, who knows, he could be anything or nothing. Salt? Kelly is a good fit for you as you need defenders but don't overrate him.

Lore can you organise a head slap react