Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[Call Me Cake]

I mean you're the one referencing the saga as if what happened then should influence decisions we make on players now. And I'll say it again - Collingwood pushed out gun players on long contracts who publicly lamented that they didn't want to go. How did that work out for them? Did the remaining players underperform? Did it kill their culture? Did they struggle to attract players from other clubs afterwards?

Basically you're arguing against it from a theoretical standpoint when, while it might be a solid theory, you have a practical example right in front of you that flies directly in its face.

Difference is Collingwood still had gun players who came off a recent Grand Final appearance. It's harder to break a culture if you've already established one (they also had salary cap issues which required some understanding, we don't).

Not to say I agree that gun players shouldn't be traded due to a change of mind but ideally it's best you keep it to a single instance if it isn't forced and also because the requirement of it doesnt apply to us in that we are looking to be competitive in a few years and said players are required for that, especially when weighted in comparison to what will be a more inexperienced (but hopefully more competitive) half of the ground by then. If you had the option to put the most solid players who have played together the most anywhere on the ground for a finals tilt ideally you'd want it in your backline.

 

[P Money]

Menzie had a good 2023 and when you compare his stats to another rookie pick in Papley at the same stage of their careers they're similar. He's also 21. And, reglardless of whether you think a different player would be good enough to break into the side first up or not, small forwards weren't exactly something we had a lot of and not many were banging the door down to break into the side.

Menzie also had 2023 as proof that he could provide. He had shown more recent evidence to warrant faith than many small forwards on the outer (or even others) to warrant belief. Especially for a 1 year contract. Not to mention many players who are far older than him have had down years. He cops a lot of heavily weighted flak compared to anyone his age that it's pretty unbelievable imo. Reckon it's probably because he looks older than he is so people expect more.

He kicked 3 goals in 14 games this year, and it's not like he was providing a whole lot else to make up for it. He doesn't cop heavily weighted flak, he had an absolutely terrible year. By way of comparison, Weideman kicked 15 goals in 16 games in 2023, essentionally 5x the output of Menzie, and the pile on Weid was 10x what Menzie has gotten.

I think the point being made is that there was absolutely no discernible reason to offer him another contract mid-year when we could have waited til the end of the year, gotten another half a season of data on him and kept more flexibility in list spots until the end of the trade period.

We now have Davey x2, Gresham and Menzie as small forwards, and we have Kako incoming and the potential of another small fwd in Rosas. It's a fair question to ask why we didn't wait til the end of the year to make a call on Menzie given the chances of another club trying to pry him from us was surely less than zero.

 

[Bjchan13]

I don't hate the player but does he play in our side?

I don't mean does he have a spot and should he play,

it's will our coaches select him in his proper position.
Or does he play a bulk of VFL and when he does play they stick him on a flank or as sub?

This is Rosa's and Scotts time to prove they are aligned with a list build and moving on from the past. Davies in and playing midfield would be a move in the right direction and show that those in charge can see balance issues and want to fix them.

 

[P Money]

Difference is Collingwood still had gun players who came off a recent Grand Final appearance. It's harder to break a culture if you've already established one (they also had salary cap issues which required some understanding, we don't).

Not to say I agree that gun players shouldn't be traded due to a change of mind but ideally it's best you keep it to a single instance if it isn't forced and also because the requirement of it doesnt apply to us in that we are looking to be competitive in a few years and said players are required for that, especially when weighted in comparison to what will be a more inexperienced (but hopefully more competitive) half of the ground by then. If you had the option to put the most solid players who have played together the most anywhere on the ground for a finals tilt ideally you'd want it in your backline.

FWIW I expect this to become a much more common occurrence, just as players signing long-term deals then wanting out a year or two later is happening more and more.

I don't disagree with most of your points, but I think a decision on what's best for a list in the here and now and for the future shouldn't be hamstrung by decisions (whether good at the time or just plain bad eg McGrath) made 1, 2 or 3 years ago. If it now makes more sense to trade a particular player than to keep him on the list, regardless of contract, then it should be done. I'll caveat that by saying it shouldn't be a common occurrence because that really could cause some issues, but the complexity of trading out a player on a long term deal probably self-polices that from happening too often.

 

[Call Me Cake]

By way of comparison, Weideman kicked 15 goals in 16 games in 2023, essentionally 5x the output of Menzie, and the pile on Weid was 10x what Menzie has gotten.

Bad comparison. Weideman wasn't 21. He also came with more expectation (as he should based on how much time he's had). Menzie also kicked more goals than him (and most others) in the same year and showed more to warrant faith than Weid even if he was Weid's age. When I say cops heavily weighted flak I meant in comparison to other players his age.

Menzie has had a good year and it was in the most recent to pass, yet Hobbs who is basically the same age has never had a year where he's proven anything and people wouldn't cough at a 1 year offered to him, especially in a position we are appearantly more stacked in. Jye is judged more harshly than other players at his stage and that is a fact.

 

[jannissary]

is jack lukosius

12

Jack Lukosius

Age

24

Ht

195cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

369.3

5star

D

14.8

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

3star

MG

369.3

5star

D

13.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

2.4

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

358.0

5star

someone we'd be interested in?

 

[cavalcade]

One good small defender who can deliver rebound from half back..

Saad is our guy

You may be right there.

 

[P Money]

Bad comparison. Weideman wasn't 21. He also came with more expectation (as he should based on how much time he's had). Menzie also kicked more goals than him (and most others) in the same year and showed more to warrant faith than Weid even if he was Weid's age. When I say cops heavily weighted flak I meant in comparison to other players his age.

Menzie has had a good year and it was in the most recent to pass, yet Hobbs who is basically the same age has never had a year where he's proven anything and people wouldn't cough at a 1 year offered to him, especially in a position we are appearantly more stacked in. Jye is judged more harshly than other players at his stage and that is a fact.

He's probably judged in the way that he is because people (including myself) can't see anything in him that screams potential. It's fair to say that Davey Jnr hasn't had the biggest influence on games, but we can all see some flashes of elite traits that makes us think he has something to work with. Menzie is slow, fumbly, makes poor decisions, is an average kick for goal, doesn't tackle or provide significant pressure, and kicked 3 goals from 14 games. It might be harsh but he deserves to be questioned on a footy forum.

Moreso the decision to re-sign him mid-year deserves to be questioned - there was literally no benefit to it. What if he did an ACL after re-signing? What if he was so terrible for the rest of the year that you'd have to question your decision to give him another year? (hint: he absolutely was).

 

[eth-dog]

Well, pursuing Ainsworth seems to me they had clear aspirations of an upgrade. Also a fringe player who repeatedly got dropped on a 1 year deal doesn't exactly scream confidence.

I think it's clear when the ideal replacement re-signs, you go for the back up plan, which Menzie was. Trouble is, we panicked when we could've easily waited.


You haven't really provided any evidence, only just said it was so.

I highlighted that they re-signed him in mid September 2023 after a much better season. A July re-signing after a terrible season makes no season comparatively.

They tried to pursue Ainsworth (a Menzie type but much better), failed, then re-signed Menzie at basically same time?

If Ainsworth said he wanted to join, we would've still signed Menzie right then and there? You can't be serious.


Sorry but why was a contract for 2025 such a lock in your eyes after spitting out a putrid 0.2 goal-a-game season as a fumbly small forward?

He did enough in 2023 for a 1 year deal, sure. But he clearly wasn't re-signed in 2024 on merit, so perhaps connect the dots around our Plan A falling though.

You keep referencing September last year compared to this year as if it means something.

Last year we had more high priority re-signings in the club's mind than this year. You forget that we didn't re-sign our two high profile free agents until August and September last year, not to mention Wright (was pre-season IIRC) and Martin (mid season). So naturally guys on one year deals get pushed back. This year we had McGrath (signed early) and Caldwell (signed like a week after Menzie) so lower priority re-signings get done earlier an usual.

You say do the maths, but look beyond the surface. I'm saying that because they re-signed him early that he was clearly part of their plans for next year regardless of Ainsworth or any other small forward.

 

[Zach Package]

I mean you're the one referencing the saga as if what happened then should influence decisions we make on players now. And I'll say it again - Collingwood pushed out gun players on long contracts who publicly lamented that they didn't want to go. How did that work out for them? Did the remaining players underperform? Did it kill their culture? Did they struggle to attract players from other clubs afterwards?

Basically you're arguing against it from a theoretical standpoint when, while it might be a solid theory, you have a practical example right in front of you that flies directly in its face.

So here is where I would challenge that. You are picking out probably the one thing that Collingwood do really poorly in terms of coaching, development, fitness, etc, and picking on it as an example of what we should be emulating.

By their own admission they haven’t got that right, why would we want to emulate it?

We don’t do anything as well as they do, I would argue we don’t do anything well at all, so if you want to model something, you go out and model the good and not the bad, if you want to model Collingwood you model them on their talent id, fitness, marketing, literally anything else that they have got spot on, not the stuff they buggered up.

Why would we model bad examples?

 

[Call Me Cake]

It's fair to say that Davey Jnr hasn't had the biggest influence on games, but we can all see some flashes of elite traits that makes us think he has something to work with.

Alwyn Jr has never had a year like 2023. Menzie has. The belief in Menzie has some physical evidence behind it to warrant persistence whereas with Jr is it all down to speculation and hope.

Menzie is slow, fumbly, makes poor decisions

So you're saying he's had a down year directly following a good one. Gee, I'm sure that's never happened before.

Moreso the decision to re-sign him mid-year deserves to be questioned

Your basis seems to lie in the notion that you don't think he can regain his form and develop, and that you think if we had waited, even with the hindsight of the NGA rules changing, that he would've been delisted.

What you don't seem to understand is, I think even if we waited for the extra 2 months of "data" (which was not too disimilar to the months earlier), I'd still back the club in to make the same offer. And, I would agee with the club in doing so.

We have kept way more players on the list, many injury prone, who have never had years like 2023 for far longer than 1 year. I think his form in 2023 has shown enough to warrant belief and I think he is judged more harshly than others his age, and the club was merely making a call that was inevitable. Even with the possible inclusions, they're not guaranteed spots in 2025 and are stabs in the dark. If Menzie had 2 years of bad form then I'd agree your point would make more sense, but that isn't the case.

 

[P Money]

So here is where I would challenge that. You are picking out probably the one thing that Collingwood do really poorly in terms of coaching, development, fitness, etc, and picking on it as an example of what we should be emulating.

By their own admission they haven’t got that right, why would we want to emulate it?

We don’t do anything as well as they do, I would argue we don’t do anything well at all, so if you want to model something, you go out and model the good and not the bad, if you want to model Collingwood you model them on their talent id, fitness, marketing, literally anything else that they have got spot on, not the stuff they buggered up.

Why would we model bad examples?

Yeah fair question. I think the mistake they made was their list management decisions prior to moving players on. But what they did right was to not just sit there with their hands tied saying 'oh well we already signed Treloar and Grundy to huge lucrative contracts, I guess we can't improve our list now'. They made hard, unpopular calls, improved their list and won the flag.

So I don't propose we emulate their bad decisions. We have already made bad decisions, or decisions that may have seemed reasonable at the time but perhaps are starting to look like they don't suit us now. I propose we emulate what they did right, which is to bite the bullet and do what was best for the list regardless of the 'optics' or the emotion involved.

 

[P Money]

Alwyn Jr has never had a year like 2023. Menzie has. The belief in Menzie has some physical evidence behind it to warrant persistence whereas with Jr is it all down to speculation and hope.



So you're saying he's had a down year directly following a good one. Gee, I'm sure that's never happened before.



Your basis seems to lie in the notion that you don't think he can regain his form and develop, and that you think if we had waited, even with the hindsight of the NGA rules changing, that he would've been delisted.

What you don't seem to understand is, I think even if we waited for the extra 2 months of "data" (which was not too disimilar to the months earlier), I'd still back the club in to make the same offer. And, I would agee with the club in doing so. We have kept way more players on the list, many injury prone, who have never had years like 2023 for far longer than 1 year. I think his form in 2023 has shown enough to warrant belief and I think he is judged more than others, and the club was merely making a call that was inevitable. Even with the possible inclusions, they're not guaranteed spots in 2025 and are stabs in the dark.

We can agree to disagree on Menzie as a player. You focus a lot on 2023 and more or less disregard 2024 (I would say 'bad' doesn't come close, he was down right terrible), but I probably do the opposite, so we can leave that there.

What you haven't addressed is the decision to sign him mid-year. Please please tell me what advantage that gives us that waiting til the end of the year wouldn't. I cannot think of a single one, but I can think (and have listed) a bunch of reasons why it would be smarter to wait til the end of the year. Whether we always intended on signing him anyway, or it was 'inevitable', why mid year?

 

[Schnitzengruben]

You keep referencing September last year compared to this year as if it means something.

Last year we had more high priority re-signings in the club's mind than this year. You forget that we didn't re-sign our two high profile free agents until August and September last year, not to mention Wright (was pre-season IIRC) and Martin (mid season). So naturally guys on one year deals get pushed back. This year we had McGrath (signed early) and Caldwell (signed like a week after Menzie) so lower priority re-signings get done earlier an usual.

You say do the maths, but look beyond the surface.

Clubs can work on multiple contracts at once Eth. I highly doubt Jye's was complicated.

The point of highlighting September was even though he had a reasonable season, the club was still patient. It made zero sense to go early this year.

I'm saying that because they re-signed him early that he was clearly part of their plans for next year regardless of Ainsworth or any other small forward.

You are not "clearly part of the plan" if the club is publicly shopping around for your replacement and your deal gets done as soon as option A says no.

You are also not "clearly part of the plan" after a disaster season going at 0.2 goals a game.

You are also, also not "clearly part of the plan" if you're a fringe player getting dropped repeatedly.

 

[Call Me Cake]

We can agree to disagree on Menzie as a player.

Yes, which is the crux of your point. You think Menzie can never be a good player and think if we didn't sign him on the 17th of July (more like just over a month to the end of the season) he would've been gone. I say I disagree.

He had 2023 to warrant the benefit of doubt and you're judging him more than other players his age, more than other players who are older that have had down years, and more than other players we've kept for longer who have shown way less or nothing.

You focus a lot on 2023 and more or less disregard 2024

And I could say you focus a lot on 2024 and disregard 2023.

I'd even go as far as to say 2023 Menzie would've been our best small forward in 2024.

What you haven't addressed is the decision to sign him mid-year.

I did, I said he would've been signed on a 1 year deal even now and think it would've been the right call. There is a thing called belief backed by recent evidence and intel on him as a young player in a form slump, not too disimilair to many, in an area we aren't stacked in. A month or so wouldn't have changed that, and I think if just over a month was all it took for us to change our minds that would cause me to be more concerned about our planning.

 

[P Money]

Yes, which is the crux of your point. You think Menzie can never be a good player and think if we didn't sign him on the 17th of July (more like nearing the end of the season) he would've been gone. I say I disagree.

He had 2023 to warrant the benefit of doubt and you're judging him more than other players his age, more than other players who are older that have had down years, and more than other players we've kept for longer who have nothing.



And I could say you focus a lot on 2024 and disregard 2023.



I'd even go as far as to say 2023 Menzie would've been our best small forward in 2024.



I did, I said he would've been signed on a 1 year deal even now and think it would've been the right call. There is a thing called belief backed by recent evidence and intel on him as a young player in a form slump, not too disimilair to many, in an area we aren't stacked in. A month or so wouldn't have changed that, and I think if a few months was all it took for us to change our minds that would cause me to be more concerned about our planning.

RE the bolded - yes I totally accept that. We are both writing off a year each based on our view of him.

We may as well agree to disagree since we are starting to go around in circles here, but I'll finish by saying you still haven't answered what is the whole crux of the conversation - what advantage does signing him mid-year give that waiting til the end of the year doesn't? Fair enough you rate him and you think he would have been signed regardless, but that's not an argument for signing him early.

 

[Beerfish]

RE the bolded - yes I totally accept that. We are both writing off a year each based on our view of him.

We may as well agree to disagree since we are starting to go around in circles here, but I'll finish by saying you still haven't answered what is the whole crux of the conversation - what advantage does signing him mid-year give that waiting til the end of the year doesn't? Fair enough you rate him and you think he would have been signed regardless, but that's not an argument for signing him early.

Maybe they give the player confidence by showing their faith earlier than they needed to.

It's a moot point though really

 

[faible]

You cannot tell me, with a straight face, that re-signing him in July, after a very poor season, within a week~ of Ainsworth turning us down, was just a coincidence.

Going by media reports, Menzie signed before Ainsworth did. July 18th vs July 22nd.

Menzie signs on

Small forward commits for 2025.

www.essendonfc.com.au

Ben Ainsworth re-commits

The Gold Coast SUNS are pleased to announce Ben Ainsworth has signed a four-year contract extension to remain with the Gold Coast SUNS until the end of 2028.

www.goldcoastfc.com.au

I suspect Menzie was happening irrespective, mid-season around the byes is a pretty common time for contracts to start to get sorted.

 

[Call Me Cake]

but I'll finish by saying you still haven't answered what is the whole crux of the conversation - what advantage does signing him mid-year give that waiting til the end of the year doesn't? Fair enough you rate him and you think he would have been signed regardless, but that's not an argument for signing him early.

Well it wasn't mid-year. You're being misleading. In terms of our season we were 5 or so weeks away from the last round. So, your premise is incorrect.

With that in mind it isn't farfetched to see a 1 year chance thrown his way if the club believed he was a young player who was in a form slump and wasn't judging him like he was 26 or as if he's gone 24 months showing nothing at all like many do on here. It was inevitable, and rightly so.

Changing our mind off the back of a month of extra data would've actually been more flippant. I'd like to think we are more professional with more foresight than that. That's the answer. Moving on.

 

[JayJ20]

Whether we panicked or not, I'm not a fan of the decision.

Menzie may have kicked 23 goals last year, but he has never kicked over 2 goals in a game at AFL level. He only kicked 2 goals 7 times in his career and not once this year. In fact, he's only had 3 scoring shots in a game 4 times in the 37 games he played and never had more than 3 scoring shots.

He only kicked 3 goals this year and had only 8 scoring shots. Alwyn Davy Jnr kicked 2 more goals with 4 less games.

That's not enough to extend him for another year.

 

[Schnitzengruben]

Going by media reports, Menzie signed before Ainsworth did. July 18th vs July 22nd.

Menzie signs on

Small forward commits for 2025.

www.essendonfc.com.au

Ben Ainsworth re-commits

The Gold Coast SUNS are pleased to announce Ben Ainsworth has signed a four-year contract extension to remain with the Gold Coast SUNS until the end of 2028.

www.goldcoastfc.com.au

I suspect Menzie was happening irrespective, mid-season around the byes is a pretty common time for contracts to start to get sorted.

They would've known Ainsworth's intention before the public media release. Likewise I'm sure they knew the rough terms of what a Menzies contingency deal would've looked like.

Cal Twomey reported as much on the 19th July. The club probably knew before that.

I'm not buying the 1 day gap as a coincidence especially when you marry it up against his form.

But yeah, think we're splitting hairs here. Moving on.

 

[VelvetSledge]

is jack lukosius someone we'd be interested in?

Yes, but I suspect he's headed back to SA.

 

[Call Me Cake]

never kicked over 2 goals in a game at AFL level.

This is what I mean by unfairly judged in comparison to peers his age. If using "didn't kick more than 2 in a game" for a 20 year old is your measuring stick for potential then a lot more young players wouldn't be on lists.

It's gotten to the point that people will create arbitrary standards to keep the unfair assessment alive.

How about, as a 20 year old, he averaged a goal out of every game of 2023. How many of our 20 to 21 year olds on our current list can you say that about? How many of them have ever had a season like that in the last 2 years let alone 1? Point stands.

 

[faible]

They would've known Ainsworth's intention before the public media release. Likewise I'm sure they knew the rough terms of what a Menzies contingency deal would've looked like.

Cal Twomey reported as much on the 19th July. The club probably knew before that.

I'm not buying the 1 day gap as a coincidence especially when you marry it up against his form.

But yeah, think we're splitting hairs here. Moving on.

If the Menzie renewal was released on the 18th, it would have been negotiated prior to that. They wouldn't have negotiated a deal and just told him to sit tight until they hear back from Ainsworth in the middle of the season, that's an end of season thing. Visentini and Caldwell all signed around the same time, so I suspect it was just a matter of having a few contract negotiations going at once. I assume Menzie would have been pretty easy, but still would have involved his manager and a lawyer acting on his behalf to review the agreement.

If I was to guess, they realised Jayden was still a ways off AFL level and wanted some level of player to throw down there.

 

[VelvetSledge]

Battle off to the Hawkes.

Jeez that's looking like a very strong team next year.

How annoying.