Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[Mercurial89]

You dont have to give up draft capital for some of the best players in the game and we probably have the greatest access to cap space in the comp

Rayner
LDU
Brayshaw
Ed Richards
Fogarty
Starcevich

ect

Eh, I don't believe in just grabbing a FA because we could, has to be the right player targeted as part of a greater list strategy.

If the list strategy involved walking the enigma ruckman in FA for comp picks to inject talent into the list as part of a designated core I don't mind not bringing anyone in if it works.
Your posting of us "having" to bring someone in just doesn't sit right.

Do we think Scott will go with a youth movement or just pick the best side available despite age?

I think he has every right to pick any player on the list if he thinks it’s gonna be more chance of winning the game.

If tsatas and Hobbs are playing vfl with Shiel and setterfield in the side are we going to blame Scott for that?

My opinion is, Rosa sets the direction with the list and Scott try’s to win games.

That's why losing Hep, Stringer are positive moves and it's a shame we couldn't ditch a few more.
If the coach is wedded to certain players that don't help the long term future of the club then ship them out and force him to adjust.
I've seen it work, it's not a reflection on the ability of the coach to lead to success, but sometimes even the best coaches need to be saved from themselves for the good of the team.

 

[jdstorm]

Right. More important to have someone maybe qualify for FS than win a flag.

i think one of those outcomes is within reach next season and it’s not “win a flag”

Untangling the mid mix is probably Rosa’s trickiest job. Be interesting to see how he goes.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

It shows that stats need to be looked at deeper

I guess it also depends how you determine a strong midfield or not? What stats do you use?

Geelong also rotate more through there and have less secondary positions for some of their mids

Hobbs should be in the team all of next year, we need to find out about him, hes been ready to go since day 1 and just hasnt been able to find a spot. Hopefully 30-40% CBAs and 30-50% starting fwd

But what Bruhn is doing in 60% TOG is impressive

I looked at the stats late in the year when they were high up for total clearance wins, but it was only because they had a lot of stoppages in their games. They were near last for clearance wins vs opponents, it was like -4.6 per game or something similar.

Hobbs hasn't been in because football has in a lot of ways moved past that type of player. Neale is an outlier and you really have to be special to make it in that role. Hobbs needs like another 4kgs on his quads while improving his aerobic output. Doable but until he does that, he's going to be behind all the others.

 

[Keystone agony]

Eh, I don't believe in just grabbing a FA because we could, has to be the right player targeted as part of a greater list strategy.

If the list strategy involved walking the enigma ruckman in FA for comp picks to inject talent into the list as part of a designated core I don't mind not bringing anyone in if it works.
Your posting of us "having" to bring someone in just doesn't sit right.

The other option is to sit at the bottom for the next 4-5 years (which is what North are doing)

Free agents are crucial. You get known products for 7 years and dont have to trade a top 10 pick for them

So you get the 10th best kid in the draft and a 7 year gun, just by paying a pretty penny

Sure you dont want another ruck FA if youve already got a ruck. Or an immobile KPD if youve already got 2 immobile KPDs

 

[eth-dog]

i think one of those outcomes is within reach next season and it’s not “win a flag”

Untangling the mid mix is probably Rosa’s trickiest job. Be interesting to see how he goes.

You said you'd rather trade Caldwell than Shiel.

 

[Keystone agony]

I looked at the stats late in the year when they were high up for total clearance wins, but it was only because they had a lot of stoppages in their games. They were near last for clearance wins vs opponents, it was like -4.6 per game or something similar.

Hobbs hasn't been in because football has in a lot of ways moved past that type of player. Neale is an outlier and you really have to be special to make it in that role. Hobbs needs like another 4kgs on his quads while improving his aerobic output. Doable but until he does that, he's going to be behind all the others.

I know clubs dont just look purely at the differentials in clearances ect

Lets say your coaching a team and im coaching against you, at every stoppage you have 5 players, but i have 8. Then theoretically i should win clearances pretty convincingly, but may still lose the game more often than not

From memory clearance is a great metric compared to other stats for outcome

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I know clubs dont just look purely at the differentials in clearances ect

Lets say your coaching a team and im coaching against you, at every stoppage you have 5 players, but i have 8. Then theoretically i should win clearances pretty convincingly, but may still lose the game more often than not

From memory clearance is a great metric compared to other stats for outcome

Which means they don't value the clearance, which is fair enough, I don't really either. As long as you defend it well. I think the majority of the last 15 or so premiership winners weren't top 4 for clearance in the comp. Hawks maybe 1 year of their reign. Brisbane last year. A few others. It's all about not being damaged from it. On average the difference in scores from clearance between the best and worst hasn't been much, it's transition and turnover where the best kill you.

But if your not impacting there, not impacting on the outside, you aren't anything to desire. I'd prefer probably 350 players in the AFL currently to Tanner Bruhn.

 

[Keystone agony]

Which means they don't value the clearance, which is fair enough, I don't really either. As long as you defend it well. I think the majority of the last 15 or so premiership winners weren't top 4 for clearance in the comp. Hawks maybe 1 year of their reign. Brisbane last year. A few others. It's all about not being damaged from it. On average the difference in scores from clearance between the best and worst hasn't been much, it's transition and turnover where the best kill you.

But if your not impacting there, not impacting on the outside, you aren't anything to desire. I'd prefer probably 350 players in the AFL currently to Tanner Bruhn.

Thats 19 players from each team

He avg 5.7 clearances from 60% TOG, no one else is doing that, hes very good on the inside

Anyway this was all about the weak 2020 draft and without looking i came up with 3 names post pick 10 in a sarcastic comment that Dodoro shouldve picked (2 wernt even anywhere near that spot in the draft)

 

[faible]

Which means they don't value the clearance, which is fair enough, I don't really either. As long as you defend it well. I think the majority of the last 15 or so premiership winners weren't top 4 for clearance in the comp. Hawks maybe 1 year of their reign. Brisbane last year. A few others. It's all about not being damaged from it. On average the difference in scores from clearance between the best and worst hasn't been much, it's transition and turnover where the best kill you.

But if your not impacting there, not impacting on the outside, you aren't anything to desire. I'd prefer probably 350 players in the AFL currently to Tanner Bruhn.

I’d be intrigued whether hardball gets has a strong correlation to winning football matches.

Clearances and contested possession is a bit of a mish-mash thing where you can have a guy like Parish who excels at reading ruck taps or loose balls get good numbers, but would you put him up against a Petracca or Dangerfield in a must-win stoppage in a GF and expect him to be able to extract it?

We don’t really have a player that can generate those hardball gets that I’d say by eye are pretty crucial in big games.

 

[jdstorm]

You said you'd rather trade Caldwell than Shiel.

I like Jye as a player and probably wouldn’t trade him

Purely from a value standpoint Caldwell is just as redundant as Sheil/Parish/Hobbs but has significantly more trade value

As a value play it does make sense.

 

[faible]

I like Jye as a player and probably wouldn’t trade him

Purely from a value standpoint Caldwell is just as redundant as Sheil/Parish/Hobbs but has significantly more trade value

As a value play it does make sense.

I’d trade Parish of that lot if we’re trading a midfielder with currency.

Caldwell’s age profile suits the bulk of the list, and he’s got a combative edge and more natural willingness to be defensive.

Parish is a good AFL player, but our midfield mix is a bit off and doesn’t necessarily allow us to get both the best out of Parish and the best out of the midfield.

 

[doug85]

Id throw a juicy offer to Starcevic as a FA

 

[FootyGuru]

I like Jye as a player and probably wouldn’t trade him

Purely from a value standpoint Caldwell is just as redundant as Sheil/Parish/Hobbs but has significantly more trade value

As a value play it does make sense.

Caldwell is the toughest out of the 4, and has the most ability to go forward if required. Hobbs and Caldwell take the tackle and get their hands free, Merrett parish and Shiel play hot potato and get rid of the ball before the physical pressure comes. They are a terrible combination.

Parish has to go, soft, doesn’t tackle, and runs one way. Isn’t overly damaging per possession either but boy he can find it. He’s also very handy in cb

 

[jdstorm]

I’d trade Parish of that lot if we’re trading a midfielder with currency.

Caldwell’s age profile suits the bulk of the list, and he’s got a combative edge and more natural willingness to be defensive.

Parish is a good AFL player, but our midfield mix is a bit off and doesn’t necessarily allow us to get both the best out of Parish and the best out of the midfield.

In terms of what suits our needs you’d rather trade Parish + Sheil.

But also they have far less trade value. Sheil as a free agent next summer and Parish on a large long contract that teams might be less willing to take on.

But also like you said Parish(also Sheil) is a good player that the mid mix doesn’t help.

So if you traded a higher trade value player and you could get significantly more in return including enough to rebalance the mid mix and and get some help elsewhere. That helps parish and now you’ve further enhanced the positive value of the trade beyond the initial return.

 

[bombersim]

I looked at the stats late in the year when they were high up for total clearance wins, but it was only because they had a lot of stoppages in their games. They were near last for clearance wins vs opponents, it was like -4.6 per game or something similar.

Hobbs hasn't been in because football has in a lot of ways moved past that type of player. Neale is an outlier and you really have to be special to make it in that role. Hobbs needs like another 4kgs on his quads while improving his aerobic output. Doable but until he does that, he's going to be behind all the others.

One of Hobbs’ biggest problems is that he compounds being physically slow with being mentally slow. It’s unlikely he will get any faster (nigh impossible), so he needs to make faster decisions. My bugbear is when he gets the ball and instead of moving it quickly he craps himself and turtles the ball, inevitably getting pinned for HTB.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Caldwell is just as redundant as

Please don't post while sitting next to a microwave.

 

[eth-dog]

I like Jye as a player and probably wouldn’t trade him

Purely from a value standpoint Caldwell is just as redundant as Sheil/Parish/Hobbs but has significantly more trade value

As a value play it does make sense.

That is one of the dumbest statements of the year. He's more valuable on the trade table because he's better than them.

 

[Keystone agony]

The Shiel/Zerrett/Parish debate

I think there is a different path to, just trade Parish to fix 'the mix'

Think you can move Zerrett in the twilight if his career to a different position, cough half back and Shiel should not be playing at his age whilst Hobbs or Tsatas are fit

Parish can be the 4th mid on less TOG, say 70%

The size and toughness of Durham, Caldwell, Hobbs, Tsatas should be assessed as combination

 

[jdstorm]

That is one of the dumbest statements of the year. He's more valuable on the trade table because he's better than them.

No shit.

But even though he’s better they largely have the same flaws/issues being small

Say Caldwell’s on field value is 9/10 player and his trade value is 8/10 (Essendon tax)

Meanwhile on field Sheils a 7/10 but off field his trade value is 1/10 (generous)

In this hypothetical Sheil is in the VFL part of the depth chart. So really he’s representing 0/10 on field AFLs value

Trade Caldwell (9 ) for a haul (8/10) and replace him as a starter with Sheil (7) and your + 6 football value on the transaction total value to AFL list (+15)

Vs trading sheil (say 1 value) and keeping Caldwell (9) with a total value of +10 added to the AFL side

Now Sports more than just cold math. (And much more involved math at that)

you have to play the hand your delt. If you’re trying to maximise your list quality giving away talented players with little trade value normally hurts more then it helps

At this point Rosa is just building depth and will
Likely ask Scott to trial guys at other positions to maximise on field talent and hopefully it all works out

 

[Yoda_]

More likely to work the other way. Clubs picking early may not want Kako but they know we’ll match so no harm in putting in a bid and making us pay maximum.

History suggests that academy and father sons mostly fall further than they are initially expected to go


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[Yoda_]

Classic kelvin post.

It’s not wrong though


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[TheGreatBarryB]

History suggests that academy and father sons mostly fall further than they are initially expected to go


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As another poster said we may want to look at a deal with Tigers to swap their pick 10 or 11 for f1, so for that we’d hope Kako has already been bid on and taken. So in a way could be in other clubs best interest not to bid early so then we can’t trade back into the first round too early

 

[IriDiuM]

As another poster said we may want to look at a deal with Tigers to swap their pick 10 or 11 for f1, so for that we’d hope Kako has already been bid on and taken. So in a way could be in other clubs best interest not to bid early so then we can’t trade back into the first round too early

Not necessarily. Even if Kako hasn't been taken, we can live trade to get one of those picks just as they're about to be made. Then still match a bid that comes afterwards.

 

[Vindicater]

We have one trade period where Dodork is not the centre of attention and we lose our minds.

 

[eth-dog]

No shit.

But even though he’s better they largely have the same flaws/issues being small

Say Caldwell’s on field value is 9/10 player and his trade value is 8/10 (Essendon tax)

Meanwhile on field Sheils a 7/10 but off field his trade value is 1/10 (generous)

In this hypothetical Sheil is in the VFL part of the depth chart. So really he’s representing 0/10 on field AFLs value

Trade Caldwell (9 ) for a haul (8/10) and replace him as a starter with Sheil (7) and your + 6 football value on the transaction total value to AFL list (+15)

Vs trading sheil (say 1 value) and keeping Caldwell (9) with a total value of +10 added to the AFL side

Now Sports more than just cold math. (And much more involved math at that)

you have to play the hand your delt. If you’re trying to maximise your list quality giving away talented players with little trade value normally hurts more then it helps

At this point Rosa is just building depth and will
Likely ask Scott to trial guys at other positions to maximise on field talent and hopefully it all works out

That is really really stupid.

Them being small doesn't mean they have the same issues. Not to mention the fact that he's also the tallest.and heaviest of the group you're mentioning.

Parish's issues are the fact that he isn't overly damaging and is poor defensively on transition and at 27 isn't really a leader nor is he likely to be part of our next premiership side.

Hobbs' issues stem from the fact that he's very slow and therefore not great on the spread and lacks versatility to play multiple positions, so a question mark on where he fits in the side.

Shiel's main issues are the fact that he doesn't have the same speed from stoppage that he used to have and we all know about his kicking issues, and the fact that he too turns 32 next year and unlikely to be in our next premiership side.

Caldwell's main issue is that he's a low production midfielder unlike Shiel and Parish. However he covers the ground better defensively than both, he's more damaging than both and he's also a good leader with captaincy possibilities in the future. Is he worth more than Parish on the trade table? Maybe, but I doubt it. Is he worth more to us over the next 5 years? Absolutely.

Stop looking at their heights and just saying because they're similar that they have the same issues. It's shallow and not as smart as you think it is.