Moved Thread And so Essendon's inevitable slide begins.....

[PezaHawk]

they haven't beaten anyone except carlto, who are also on the downside at the moment. they only just beat gold coast and port adelaide as well

At the start of the year I got ridiculed by essendon fans by saying they were the weakest 3-0 side ever. I knew sooner or later they would show their true colours. They are simply cracking under some fantastic pressure by Sydney. I and others tried to tell them but they wouldn't listen. But after last week and tonight they have to face that truth. They are going to be one of the worst top 4 sides we've seen. Expect them to limp into the top 4 and get thrashed in the finals.

This is the kind of pressure they will have to face in finals. They are a long way off it.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

they haven't beaten anyone except carlto, who are also on the downside at the moment. they only just beat gold coast and port adelaide as well

Thrashed West Coast too, but that is a touch irrelevant, I agree.

 

[PezaHawk]

yeh true, but the eagles had like, their whole starting forward line up out

Thrashed West Coast too, but that is a touch irrelevant, I agree.

 

[pazza]

Hehehe. Laughing all the way.

Here is what we do know.

By the time August rolls around, Essendon's injury list would be described as minimal at best.

The club has already confrimed the scheduledreturn to playing of Winderlich and Prismall, both to happen within the next 4 weeks. With Zaharakis, Hibberd, Hille and McVeigh coming through in that time as well.

What it means is that aside from Davis and O'Brien, 2 youngsters, Essendon is going to have close enough to a full list to pick from for both it's senior side and players at Bendigo. This will create competition for selection, a great dilemma to have for the match committee and place the team in a great position as we head towards the finals.

We sit 8-3.

This is how I see the remaining rounds going.

Freo (away) - 50/50 (every chance of winning)
Dogs (home) - win
Saints (away) - win
Port (away) - 50/50 (every chance of winning)
Geelong (away) - 50/50
Hawthorn (home) - 50/50
Adelaide (away) - loss
North (home) - win
Carlton (home) - win
Richmond (away) - 50/50
Collingwood (home) - 50/50

So counting the definite wins/losses that makes it 12/4. Splitting the 50/50's makes it 15/7 and either inside the top 4 or in 5th/6th. 4 win improvement on last year.

 

[Necromancer Beth]

Hehehe. Laughing all the way.

Here is what we do know.

By the time August rolls around, Essendon's injury list would be described as minimal at best.

The club has already confrimed the scheduledreturn to playing of Winderlich and Prismall, both to happen within the next 4 weeks. With Zaharakis, Hibberd, Hille and McVeigh coming through in that time as well.

What it means is that aside from Davis and O'Brien, 2 youngsters, Essendon is going to have close enough to a full list to pick from for both it's senior side and players at Bendigo. This will create competition for selection, a great dilemma to have for the match committee and place the team in a great position as we head towards the finals.

We sit 8-3.

This is how I see the remaining rounds going.

Freo (away) - 50/50 (every chance of winning)
Dogs (home) - win
Saints (away) - win
Port (away) - 50/50 (every chance of winning)
Geelong (away) - 50/50
Hawthorn (home) - 50/50
Adelaide (away) - loss
North (home) - win
Carlton (home) - win
Richmond (away) - 50/50
Collingwood (home) - 50/50

So counting the definite wins/losses that makes it 12/4. Splitting the 50/50's makes it 15/7 and either inside the top 4 or in 5th/6th. 4 win improvement on last year.

Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood & Geelong are not 50/50s. All those teams will be favourites against you. Carlton & St Kilda are far from guaranteed wins as well.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

yeh true, but the eagles had like, their whole starting forward line up out

Which naturally explains why they got smashed for I50s, contested possessions, et cetera.

 

[DVD Player]

Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood & Geelong are not 50/50s. All those teams will be favourites against you. Carlton & St Kilda are far from guaranteed wins as well.

Adelaide is a loss, you would think, as is Collingwood. Geelong is a genuine 50/50 imo and the Hawthorn game is helped somewhat due to being at Etihad, and whilst still not a 50/50, probably isn't a definite loss either.

 

[Jesse Custer]

Predicting wins and losses against teams is a waste of time. Our last two weeks is ample proof of this. But people will never learn.

 

[syl]

No game is a definite win or definite loss. Every team can win any match when they come out to play.

 

[The Dustbin]

The dons forward line is really dysfunctional. Get a lot of ball down there but don't have the cattle up forward IMO

This sums it up.

 

[pazza]

Hawthorn, Adelaide, Collingwood & Geelong are not 50/50s. All those teams will be favourites against you. Carlton & St Kilda are far from guaranteed wins as well.

Already had Adelaide asa clear loss with Port Adelaide being the 50/50. Carlton's fitness and form is the issue with them and Saints haven't beaten Essendon for some time, so you can understand why i would be confident about both.

Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond and Collingwood are legitimate 50/50s. MCG is still a concern for us, so I'm expecting those 2 games to be very close. We match up well against Geelong now and Hawthorn at Etihad makes it a challenge for the Hawks to beat us there - if that game was atthe MCG, Hawks win easy.

 

[The Dustbin]

tallest witches hat in the AFL.

Robbie Warnock?

 

[mufassa]

Hehehe. Laughing all the way.

Here is what we do know.

By the time August rolls around, Essendon's injury list would be described as minimal at best.

The club has already confrimed the scheduledreturn to playing of Winderlich and Prismall, both to happen within the next 4 weeks. With Zaharakis, Hibberd, Hille and McVeigh coming through in that time as well.

What it means is that aside from Davis and O'Brien, 2 youngsters, Essendon is going to have close enough to a full list to pick from for both it's senior side and players at Bendigo. This will create competition for selection, a great dilemma to have for the match committee and place the team in a great position as we head towards the finals.

We sit 8-3.

This is how I see the remaining rounds going.

Freo (away) - 50/50 (every chance of winning)
Dogs (home) - win
Saints (away) - win
Port (away) - 50/50 (every chance of winning)
Geelong (away) - 50/50
Hawthorn (home) - 50/50
Adelaide (away) - loss
North (home) - win
Carlton (home) - win
Richmond (away) - 50/50
Collingwood (home) - 50/50

So counting the definite wins/losses that makes it 12/4. Splitting the 50/50's makes it 15/7 and either inside the top 4 or in 5th/6th. 4 win improvement on last year.

How can you say you will have "minimal injuries at best" - you cannot say that your injury list will automatically reduce? You could have 5 hammy's go ping in the coming weeks.

Your list above is as bias as you can get. Hawks and Pies will start at least $1.50 favs. You have lost 9 of your last 10 in WA - shocking record and Freo are favourite to win. Saints and Blues are no where near a lock in for a win. You are way over estimating the easy start you have had to the year and your prediction of a third placed finish is wishful thinking.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

H
By the time August rolls around, Essendon's injury list would be described as minimal at best.
.

Yeh cause no team ever gets injuries in the second half of the year. I didn't catch the second half of the 2011 season, Collingwood went through untouched?

 

[mufassa]

A large part of this thread has been supporters from other clubs excited by the opportunity to cut down the (growing) tallish poppy only to be rebutted by the EFC supporters and some more reasonable fans out there. I suppose I won't really be adding anything by posting this, but here is goes anyway...

We can take solace in the fact that our three losses combined total less than two kicks. For an EFC fan this stat borders on the amazing. In the last 4 years we have been routinely blown out of the water by opposition teams both excellent and horrible as soon as our opponents have the run-on. Our new found ability to fight out games that have not been going our way is significant and makes us much more dangerous than we have ever been. It will also give us an extra 3 or 4 games a year as a rule (seriously look at some of the performances we have turned in against the likes of Melbourne, Richmond, North and Port between 07 and 11).

On this measure alone the season completed to the half-way point is a success.

Despite the problems we had against Melbourne and Sydney we had no trouble winning the ball and getting it inside 50. It is a little bit ridiculous to suggest that we have been found out when it has been good ol’ pressure and hard running that has taken full advantage of us “falling asleep at the wheel” (have a look at the difference between the first and second halves of EFC vs RFC). Pressure and hard running are hardly new concepts and, equally, are not tactical meaning that it is not as though our game plan and structure have been exposed (as Carlton’s appears to have been). If clubs are thinking to themselves “all we need to do is be fanatical in our pressure and bust our lungs running” I am not concerned in slightest.

There is no doubting that our forward 50 entries of late have been, due to a combination of poor disposal and confusion, largely useless. This has unfairly placed Hurley in the spotlight who, but for some uncharacteristically pathetic goal kicking, has been doing more than enough as a 21 year old KPF. There is no doubting that his reputation does not match his deeds, and that we want him to close the gap, but this does not mean that he has not been playing a valuable role. The fact that we cannot seem to get Hurley and Crameri fit and together on the park means that we are lacking the dual lead up targets whose presences will ultimately aid in structured/controlled entries into the forward 50.

I’m quite convinced that, as indicators of intent aside, contested possession and clearance stats are a little misleading. The pressure we have been placed under and poor disposal can certainly create higher numbers of contested possessions and we are better in the clearances around the ground where there is less space and greater numbers around the contest (we are not as good at centre clearances).

What you cannot doubt is that we are winning the ball, getting the ball into scoring areas and hitting the scoreboard more often than our opponents are. These are the fundamentals of football, success in which results in more wins than losses.

The issue is whether we have run out of steam and whether we will be able to recover the manic forward pressure that saw us rip a few good sides apart this year. The first half against Fremantle will tell the story.

There have also been some posts querying our recent recruiting and describing us as one of the worst top 4 sides in history. To you guys I’d say have the intellect to watch the games and make up your own minds. Just because our host of young and (still) inexperienced players, around which we have rebuilt ¾ of our side (these guys were drafted between 2006 and 2009), have been largely ignored by the media does not mean that they are not good players and will not be stars.

Our list suffers from the perception created by years of having only 1 or 2 proven gun players. In the true spirit of the reactionary imbeciles that make up the “experts” in the media this perception has resulted in this view that we don’t have any potential champions. They will sit and wait, as they usually do, to acknowledge that we have a number of very good players in our side.

This last point is emphasised by the fact that our structure is almost complete. We are basically waiting for the icing on the cake (the icing being the evolution of a few highly talented midfielder into mature professionals and the development of chemistry between the forward options we do have).

Our backline is as good as we suspected it was in about round 12 last year. Hooker has been as good a KPD as there has been this year; Carlisle has made it near impossible for Pears to recover his position in the side (until Fletcher retires); and Hardingham and Hibberd are as good a pair of negating small defenders (who also happen to be able to play on mid-sized opponents) as exist in the game. The blend of Dyson, Dempsey and Heppell has very successfully provide the run and creativity from half back. We don’t need to discuss Fletcher.

In the middle we have Watson and Stanton who are complimented with proven inside ball winning ability of Hocking, Howlett and Lonergan. This as a core of our midfield is not enough to win a flag but it is still a work in progress. Zaharakis has continued his dramatic improvement from year to year and, based on his performances since ANZAC day, is on the verge of A grade status. Seriously, underestimate his ability to win the ball, spread and deliver with precision at your own peril.

While we have problems working out how to best use Bellchambers and Ryder in the one side they are 10 year options in the ruck (it is not a bad problem to have).

Up forward Hurley, Crameri and Ryder have been very destructive in tandem with each other (the first half vs Richmond would be the blueprint). Davey and Jetta have had good seasons to date and have scored a lot of goals in addition to adding considerable forward pressure.

There are other role players that I cannot be bothered touching on. I’ll leave it with a similar view to that of Rohan Connell in today’s Age. Rather than hanging my hopes on a player that nobody at the club seems to love (Reimers) and a a guy who will not have played any game for 20 months (Winderlich) I'll draw your attention to a few (maligned) highish first round picks who are yet to hit their straps but who we have up our sleaves for the remainder of the season (in addition to the rest of the depth). What you will see is that they are exactly what we need to include to fill out the small holes in our structure.

David Myers played a half of football against Sydney that reflects his true worth as a gifted and destructive ball winner. He will probably replace Lonergan in the side and will add more speed and a new dimension to our inside midfield department. Melksham is the second high draft pick that may be added into our midfield for the second half of this season (if not this season then it will be next) and who will add speed and considerable class if he gets it going. He has struggled with new size but is being persisted with so there is expectation that he will turn it on sooner rather than later. Finally there is Gumbleton who has played his third match in a row at Bendigo and appears to have finally gotten on top of his injury problems. If you listen to Hird there is real expectation that he will be given his opportunity. It will not depend on the functioning of the forward line if Gumby continues to show glimpses he has been showing (he is potentially a very special inclusion).

This is all basically the same thing I would have posted at the start of the year. At the start of the year we questioned why a side with the existing form (finishing 8th) built around a young and improving core of player was so widely tipped to fall out of the top 8 in favour of sides without complete structures of KPPs and roles players like Richmond and North. We are now asking why a team with runs on the board and proven form against the better sides in the competition (or at least Carlton when it was inform) to the half-way point of the season is being tipped to fall in a heap.

Our characteristic inability to belittle weak opponents and some bad conversion aside there really isn’t too much to say that we are in anything more than a small flat patch. You can hang your hopes of our capitulation on our list of players if you like. It won’t happen.

David Myers played a half of football against Sydney that reflects his true worth as a gifted and destructive ball winner.

Wow - not sure how you could think of Myers as a destructive ball winner - this is how I would descibe Dangerfield not Myers. The entire post is the glass is half full stuff while and ignoring that the glass is also half empty.

 

[Air_Chester]

How can you say you will have "minimal injuries at best" - you cannot say that your injury list will automatically reduce? You could have 5 hammy's go ping in the coming weeks.

Your list above is as bias as you can get. Hawks and Pies will start at least $1.50 favs. You have lost 9 of your last 10 in WA - shocking record and Freo are favourite to win. Saints and Blues are no where near a lock in for a win. You are way over estimating the easy start you have had to the year and your prediction of a third placed finish is wishful thinking.

Essendon - $1.77
Freo - $2.00

 

[BrunoV]

David Myers played a half of football against Sydney that reflects his true worth as a gifted and destructive ball winner.

Wow - not sure how you could think of Myers as a destructive ball winner - this is how I would descibe Dangerfield not Myers. The entire post is the glass is half full stuff while and ignoring that the glass is also half empty.

May have gone overboard on Myers. Point is that he is every chance of developing into one of the best clearance winners in the game. He has more weapons than Jobe does. Only time will tell whether he gets there.

Otherwise thanks for your contribution. I know it has changed my view of what is essentially a fact piece (some hyperbole about a player or two aside). I would like you to tell me whether anything I have referred to has happened. Like, did we destroy a West Coast that was about as undermanned as we were? Or did it happen when we win comfortably against the then rampant Carlton? Does the win/loss ratio lie? Maybe it does like it did last year. Did any of it happen or have I made it all up?

You are in a trap that the wider football community often falls into. You are ignoring form in favour of preconceived perceptions about players and clubs.

 

[Pweter]

David Myers played a half of football against Sydney that reflects his true worth as a gifted and destructive ball winner.

Wow - not sure how you could think of Myers as a destructive ball winner - this is how I would descibe Dangerfield not Myers. The entire post is the glass is half full stuff while and ignoring that the glass is also half empty.

Of course it is taking a glass half full approach, this season to date has proven we are on the right track and building on the foundation of last season.

No blowout losses, more scoring shots in 2 of our 3 losses, not lying down in any game until the final siren, obvious strength and fitness gains, depth players are generally making an impact and not making up the numbers etc. We've had all of this with a significant amount of injuries to key players throughout the season when our depth has been ridiculed by all and sundry in recent seasons.

No sane Essendon supporter would be satisfied with where we're at given the nature of the last 2 games, but the fact we've lead most the key stats at the end of the game shows we are heading in the right direction.

 

[mufassa]

Essendon - $1.77
Freo - $2.00

TAB - Freo $1.85 Ess $1.95.

 

[Pweter]

Breaking news - different betting agencies have differing odds in a 50/50 2 horse race.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Essendon being favourites at Subiaco would be the height of lunacy.

 

[mufassa]

Of course it is taking a glass half full approach, this season to date has proven we are on the right track and building on the foundation of last season.

No blowout losses, more scoring shots in 2 of our 3 losses, not lying down in any game until the final siren, obvious strength and fitness gains, depth players are generally making an impact and not making up the numbers etc. We've had all of this with a significant amount of injuries to key players throughout the season when our depth has been ridiculed by all and sundry in recent seasons.

No sane Essendon supporter would be satisfied with where we're at given the nature of the last 2 games, but the fact we've lead most the key stats at the end of the game shows we are heading in the right direction.

You lost to Melbourne.

How sure that history is not repeating? Start well fade during the middle of the year, limp into finals and get smashed in your one and only final? Looking very similar to last year.

Is it because of Myers destructive midfield super powers that will now be able stop this?

 

[Pweter]

And how sure are you history is repeating? If it does not repeat you will crawl into a hole never to resurface, if it does you'll be beating your chest and big noting yourself. You seem to be taking a "this is Essendon for eternity" approach where until proven wrong you'll bleat the same message.

My comment was based on your "The entire post is the glass is half full stuff while and ignoring that the glass is also half empty" comment, nothing to do with Myers playing a half.

If you can't see a difference between the last few seasons and this season then I can't help that.

 

[bombermick]

Freo outsiders? Wow, may have to put some on them and hope I lose. Classic win-win.

Why would you bother trying to convince Mufassa of Essendon's bona-fides?

 

[Mercurial89]

I think we are exactly where we all thought we would be at the start of the year. We are seeing improvement and that's the best thing about it. The idea that some people seem to have in their heads that we felt we would fly into top four easily and were locks is false.

Reading through this thread it is filled with people who have listened to media "experts" about our chances (the same experts who will line up to pot us at the first opportunity) and people who can't see past their own personal hatred of our club to admit that our list is beginning to take shape and we actually do have depth.