Anyone genuinely made money betting on sport

[Purple7x08_24]

Bookmakers profit because they have a mathematical edge, making it long term virtually impossible for them to lose.
E.g. when there's a dead even match, Sportsbet will offer

Team A: $1.90
Team B: $1.90

With long term variance, it is almost impossible for them not to profit long term, when they are offering $1.90 on a coin toss.

I wonde4 how many people l9st money on Harley for the rising star

 

[juss]

I wonde4 how many people l9st money on Harley for the rising star

Only time I bet on futures is for teams to make deep runs at tournaments or in seasons, e.g. bet them at the preseason and cash out when their odds shorten on Betfair.

Exhibit A I backed Tottenham for the EPL knowing full well they wouldn't win it, but cashed out on them when they were sitting on top early and made a profit.

I do this a lot in Grand Slam Tennis too, back someone at big odds and cash out a few rounds in or at the quarters.

I'd never bet on something like the RS because I don't feel there's an advantage there for me.

 

[juss]

View attachment 1987605

That's a great ROI over 9 weeks, if you keep that up for the year which judging by your week to week results it looks like you've found something that works for you, you'll have a great result by end of season...

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

That's a great ROI over 9 weeks, if you keep that up for the year which judging by your week to week results it looks like you've found something that works for you, you'll have a great result by end of season...

After two red weeks had my best week this season and finally hit the 10k profit mark

 

[juss]

For the month of May I am down $21.60, after being up $52.12 in April, so yeh basically break even for the year so far, just can't seem to get ahead this year, and that's a much larger total turnover, it's just hovering around the break even mark.

 

[Waca Jr]

That definitely used to be the case 5-7 years ago. Not sure so much today.

Not going go lie has gotten harder 100 percent. Market percentage and poc tax is killing it

 

[Footy Form Guide Podcast]

Time for a maths lesson on multis.


Let's assume the vig on an average bet is 5%. That is generous for the punter, it would be closer to ten and much more for exotic things like first goal scorer. But let's assume 5%

So on any given single bet, your expected return for 1 dollar is 95 cents. On average, random betting will give you that return. Good betting could overcome that and get you a profit.

On a double, this becomes .95 squared, or .9025.

On a ten leg multi, it is .95^10, which is just under 0.6.

So long term, on random 10 leg multis, you can expect 60 cents back on every dollar wagered. And that's assuming pretty sharp prices.

Multis are fun. But they are not profitable.

This is where you should only have multis where you are multiplying an edge


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[Footy Form Guide Podcast]

This is where you should only have multis where you are multiplying an edge


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

My advice for anyone who wants to make money money consistently betting AFL.

Avoid multis unless you can find a contingency that is giving you an edge.

Stick the the principle of making value bets

Use a modified Kelly staking plan and be disciplined

Take the time to study and do not listen to the media


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[Jugada]

This is where you should only have multis where you are multiplying an edge


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This is why that logic behind multi bets doesn’t hold up. You aren’t getting any better value by multi betting +ev bets.

Multi bets are complete shit but they are a staking issue and nothing more. You don’t lose or gain any edge by the amount you are betting

 

[Footy Form Guide Podcast]

This is why that logic behind multi bets doesn’t hold up. You aren’t getting any better value by multi betting +ev bets.

Multi bets are complete shit but they are a staking issue and nothing more. You don’t lose or gain any edge by the amount you are betting

There needs to be some sort of contingency at play to elevate the value. If x happens then y should be a better chance.


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[Jugada]

There needs to be some sort of contingency at play to elevate the value. If x happens then y should be a better chance.


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Sure there are spot plays that may be available where related outcomes aren’t juiced but just in general the perceived value doesn’t change based on whether you multi or single a of couple bets

 

[TheUnicorn]

My roommate back at uni use to survive from betting on soccer instead of working. He did this pretty successfully for like 2 years.

I can’t really elaborate further than this because I don’t know the details.

 

[clappedpunter]

Just stumbled accross this thread, anyone that actually thinks people don't have strategies and methods to exploit edges from sportsbooks is delusional. My sole income right now is from sportsbetting, i am obviously not going to reveal my strategies and edges however i have been banned from roughly 50 of the 80+ sportsbooks within Australia.

 

[targett]

I usually ignore anything less than $2 odds (unless I'm getting $1.90 for something that should be $1.10). Current average odds per winning bet for the season stand at $5.05

WD finding av odds of 5/1 on singles and 80 bets pw

 

[Geeves Train]

After two red weeks had my best week this season and finally hit the 10k profit mark

View attachment 2011476

Your a wizard Leeroy

 

[juss]

Just stumbled accross this thread, anyone that actually thinks people don't have strategies and methods to exploit edges from sportsbooks is delusional. My sole income right now is from sportsbetting, i am obviously not going to reveal my strategies and edges however i have been banned from roughly 50 of the 80+ sportsbooks within Australia.

Without posting your specific tips, it's easy to give more info without giving too much away.

 

[metalpiggy]

I keep track of every single bet that I make on a spreadsheet. For the 2024 AFL season so far, (I have posted 95% of my bets in the weekly threads) I have the following:

Wagers: $76,673.84
Profit: $10,988.22
Return: 14%

I have posted my bets in terms of units each week and for me this year in AFL 1u = $200.

I have made a profit betting AFL for the last 4 years. Certainly doable.

You and Leeroy Brown 15 talk about postive EV betting, Every time I look at the odds to place a bet there is never any EV vaule to be made. So I am wondering if you using a oddsmonkey or the like

And if you are, could you tell us if they are worthwhile, is it worth spending 100 a month on a memebership

​

 

[Jugada]

You and Leeroy Brown 15 talk about postive EV betting, Every time I look at the odds to place a bet there is never any EV vaule to be made. So I am wondering if you using a oddsmonkey or the like

And if you are, could you tell us if they are worthwhile, is it worth spending 100 a month on a memebership

​

If you can’t even find perceived +EV bets then just give it away or be happy with it being a form of entertainment you are spending money on. Investing further money on a paid service is just going to be a waste of money

You need a pretty solid baseline of knowledge on probability, statistical analysis, market percentags etc before you even start putting in the hours of work required to actually be able to identify +EV or perceived+EV bets. Spending time on that would be far more beneficial than paying someone to find 1% edges that won’t last anyway as every other sub is on the same thing

 

[pacemaker]

Dan Curtin $41

 

[5 Bucks]

I used to make a packet betting on AFL Fantasy lines a few years ago when the bookies offered a lot more markets. Nick Haynes

19

Nick Haynes

Age

32

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.4

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

6.2

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

326.8

4star

D

17.4

4star

K

13.9

5star

HB

3.5

2star

M

8.0

5star

T

1.5

2star

MG

326.8

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

averaged a ****ton of marks for a few years and I would fade him every time it was raining and generally there wasn't much more analysis than that involved in a lot of these bets. Pregame interviews with the coaches declaring a player was going to play mid or forward or whatever were a goldmine too. Was putting 5 units on individual bets, but not many of them per round. Now I just lose money on NBA that seems to be rigged but I'm a degen and will never stop.

 

[5 Bucks]

One strategy that I employed was to recalibrate unit sizes after every round. If I started the year with a $10,000 bankroll and had a $100 unit size but I won $700 for round 1 then one unit became $107. If you're consistently making a profit then this is the way to go.

Hypothetically if you are making on average 4 units profit every weekend, after 10 weeks you'll have made 40 units profit. Excellent. However if you rolled it over every week it would be 48 units. After 20 weeks its 80 units vs 119 and that's what I did in my profitable years.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I'm skeptical of anyone with a long term and consistent strategy. I ran historical data from 2023 AFL season.

I selected Home teams with odds of less than $1.20

33 teams were filtered. Here were the results

7/33 were losses (21%).
2 were close wins under a goal

From $1.21 - $1.50 the home team won 38/54 (30% loss)

From $1.70 - $2.10 Home team won 21/39 (Near 50%)

Best case scenario below for double or nothing you make $1545

It seems to me like the statistics just don't add up to the value of the odds given the outcomes.

STatistically, I'm interested to see how other ranges fair but I think it will be more of the same.

And for anyone saying you could selectively pick those. Who would have been able to accurately pick say 20 consecutive legs? That would be about 5.5K




View attachment 1975439

I have but one would say it’s been essentially because of 2 bets that I’m up overall

I posted the WC one back a number of years ago

It was something like $5k on Sydney v WC h2h at $2.20 ish and $500 on Sydney 40+ at $12

Also won $25k on the Brownlow the year that BK took TAB to the cleaners on here

Those 2 plus a good run during the US open one year where I ended up about $10k means I’m up overall. Not by a huge amount though which is telling

 

[Pistol Night]

If you still have an online betting account and haven’t been banned you’re a losing punter. Like me

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Thought I'd update this thread with how I ended up going the second half of the season to close out the AFL home and away season. After hitting 10k profit I had some pretty poor weeks following and started to battle, couldn't buy a winner. Trusted the process, rode out the negative variance and was rewarded with some of the best weeks of the season. To close out the season, had my worst week of the year last round and was strongly considering giving the last round a miss as it's been a lot harder to find good stuff this time of year but stuck at it and finished strongly. All results based on a $50 unit size and will strongly consider ramping up operations next year.



Overall very happy with the results, now on to Brownlow betting.

 

[pacemaker]

Thought I'd update this thread with how I ended up going the second half of the season to close out the AFL home and away season. After hitting 10k profit I had some pretty poor weeks following and started to battle, couldn't buy a winner. Trusted the process, rode out the negative variance and was rewarded with some of the best weeks of the season. To close out the season, had my worst week of the year last round and was strongly considering giving the last round a miss as it's been a lot harder to find good stuff this time of year but stuck at it and finished strongly. All results based on a $50 unit size and will strongly consider ramping up operations next year.

View attachment 2093031

Overall very happy with the results, now on to Brownlow betting.

Great data.

What were the average losses odds?? I don't question the data but also difficult to understand you can be up 27% profit with a 24% win rate.