April - Daily Punt

[Lockyer24]

Is the track drying up or something..why is The Offer drifting? I think it's more likely to win than Lucia Valentina (I'm backing both again though).

In other news I have well and truly missed any decent odds on Synthetic at Caulfield..

 

[Main Man]

I think IADD did beat the 2nd string 2yo's, I thought Proisir was a good prospect but remember he was midfield in the Cox Plate, Sacred Falls is a good horse now but was no where near his best when clashing with IADD whereas he was at the peak of his powers.

I don't think he was a champion 3yo, he was beaten by Super Cool in the Vase and both 5.5star and Super Cool in the Vic Derby and convincingly, before that he had fallen in 2 times at the midweeks. Mean while Pierro, All Too Hard and Epaulette were competing against the older horse in the best races Australia has to offer.

Yes he did what he did in the Autumn and you have to be good to do what he has done but he is no champion as far as I'm concerned, a good horse whose reputation precedes him.

I agree with the size comments holding him back but I also think his racing pattern has cost him further success, easy enough to come from the back against the weaker horses but good luck against the quality animals, unless everything falls into place it is going to be difficult to win consistently, if he had the ability to race on speed without losing his sprint then he may well have been a champion.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Are the hard working folk at the TAB's open today, going out later to a venue with a TAB outlet and wouldn't mind getting some gambling in on the NRL games later today.

 

[Next Waiting]

Super Cool was an early August foal and Five and a Half Star an early September foal. IADD a mid November foal. This can make a difference to spring 3yrolds especially towards the end of a solid campaign when physical maturity can play a part. Things can start to even out a bit in Autumn. SYT also a November foal which makes him all the more remarkable and a notch or two above any of the former when his NH deeds are also considered. If IADD wins the QE, then it's a tremendous training achievement I believe as throughout his racing career he's been placed to make the most of what he's got. He's competed at the top level against very good horses this Autumn without prevailing but with signs of improvement each time. He was set for this race specifically quite some time ago. If I owned him, with 5 group 1's on the wall and in the bank already, and then left this carnival with 3 group 1 placings and a $4m group 1 win I'd be rapt.

 

[Aussie Assault]

I see there's an early quaddie tomorrow at Randwick with the tab. Do they get decent pools in these?

 

[rideclutch]

I agree with the size comments holding him back but I also think his racing pattern has cost him further success, easy enough to come from the back against the weaker horses but good luck against the quality animals, unless everything falls into place it is going to be difficult to win consistently, if he had the ability to race on speed without losing his sprint then he may well have been a champion.

Randwick Guineas, Underwood; sat close both times. Was over the top by the Derby, not that he would've won it because 5.5 and SC were probably superior horses.

Suppose each person defines 'champion' differently. For me, it's longevity at the top level.

 

[Main Man]

He sat close in those events as the pace of the race allowed him too, that is also why I have question marks on him as his best performances have come when sprinting off slow tempo's, the champion horses are able to sprint off strong tempo's which is something he has never been able to achieve.

 

[yaco55]

IAD - Key is that he peaks 3rd and 4th run. Don't touch him at his fifth run. Has been a touch disappointing but I always wonder about wet track form.

 

[rideclutch]

He sat close in those events as the pace of the race allowed him too, that is also why I have question marks on him as his best performances have come when sprinting off slow tempo's, the champion horses are able to sprint off strong tempo's which is something he has never been able to achieve.

Geez mate, not many middle-distance horses can sprint off sitting on strong tempos. Not in this country, anyway.

I think you're rating him harshly and in comparison to two champion sprinter/milers Pierro and ATH. He met the former once (?) for a fast finishing 4th on a heavy track, 1400m.

 

[Main Man]

So You Think, Might and Power and Northerly all raced on pace and kept going off very strong tempos.

This is my point, he seems to have the superstar status within the racing community yet in comparison to the previous champions/superstars he really does not compare.

 

[iluvparis]

It would be extremely hard to argue that a horse that wins the 3yo triple crown (with 2 of the legs by 6+ lengths) is not a champion 3yo.

Feel free to bump this post next time the feat is achieved. I think you'll be waiting awhile.

Pierro was also beaten in arguably the 3 biggest races he ran in.

 

[Jugada]

It would be extremely hard to argue that a horse that wins the 3yo triple crown (with 2 of the legs by 6+ lengths) is not a champion 3yo.

Feel free to bump this post next time the feat is achieved. I think you'll be waiting awhile.

Pierro was also beaten in arguably the 3 biggest races he ran in.

It reads nice on the CV but in reality its not that impressive given the line up. 5.5* had a better Autumn than him imo

Would you call Shamus Award a champion 3yo?

 

[rideclutch]

So You Think, Might and Power and Northerly all raced on pace and kept going off very strong tempos.

This is my point, he seems to have the superstar status within the racing community yet in comparison to the previous champions/superstars he really does not compare.

Ok, I see where we're differing here. Those were all-time greats, 2 of those are in the Hall of Fame, SYT will not be long off in there.

I think you can still be a champion (and we're only suggesting IADD was a 3YO champion) without being a legend of the turf. Plenty of excellent horses won't make HOF status.

 

[rideclutch]

It reads nice on the CV but in reality its not that impressive given the line up. 5.5* had a better Autumn than him imo

Hard to say 5.5 isn't at least the equal or better than IADD, but he himself was rolled 4 times (twice as fave) before he won the BMW.

Could also argue 5.5 was against slightly inferior opposition whilst having a 3YO weight pull that IADD doesn't have. I'm with iluveurosnob here, harshly rated.

 

[Jugada]

Hard to say 5.5 isn't at least the equal or better than IADD, but he himself was rolled 4 times (twice as fave) before he won the BMW.

Could also argue 5.5 was against slightly inferior opposition whilst having a 3YO weight pull that IADD doesn't have. I'm with iluveurosnob here, harshly rated.

IAD beat Phillipi and Kingdoms in the ATC Derby
5.5* beat Silent Achiever in the BMW

In no world was 5.5* taking on inferior opposition
His 2 losses prior were 2nds in G1 WFA races

 

[Main Man]

5.5star was also a good thing beaten in the Ranvet thanks to Peter Robl's inability to switch the whip into the left hand, lost 2 lengths running out the entire length of the straight, if Bowman was on there then he wins that also.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Would you call Shamus Award a champion 3yo?

Tough question. I guess you have to as it's won the biggest WFA in the land. And the Australian Guineas to somewhat back up its spring.

 

[RobbyRoy]

Keep going back and forth in the Queen of the Turf. Solicit and Gypsy Diamond provide decent challengers, but I still see it as a two horse race. Which of those two horse though, has me stuck. Red Tracer disappointed in the George Ryder, but Nash back on and up against the girls...

 

[rideclutch]

IAD beat Phillipi and Kingdoms in the ATC Derby
5.5* beat Silent Achiever in the BMW

In no world was 5.5* taking on inferior opposition
His 2 losses prior were 2nds in G1 WFA races

Sorry, I was comparing IADD's record against open company compared with 5.5's, not their 3YO careers. (Kellini/Mawingo/Maluckyday/Sangster vs Fiorente/Carlton House/Silent Achiever). IADD might've stacked up well with the weight pull, we'll never know. It's a different argument though.

Can't tell me SA hasn't found 2 lengths this time around either.

 

[Jade's]

Sale - Race 7 #9 Cracked

Will go to the front or sit 2nd and go for home 600m out.

Nice tip flog. Another SCC special. Off to the dog food factory

 

[iluvparis]

It reads nice on the CV but in reality its not that impressive given the line up. 5.5* had a better Autumn than him imo

Would you call Shamus Award a champion 3yo?

No. I just don't rate the form out of his wins.

Also look at the field 5.5* beat in the BMW. Take out silent achiever and they were basically 2 mile handicappers.

Beating a two time Doncaster winner by 6 is more than impressive enough for me.

 

[PureFooty]

Regular posters will know I'm completely bias towards IAD. I've mentioned his excuses in particular races and have backed him heavily a couple of times this campaign and have been burnt. I should have learnt after the first up run, where he looked well below par fitness wise, that he was probably a bit behind meaning he is just targeted for the big dance. I was just happy to watch him go round in the BMW, and the run was great. I think he'll be beating the best field the race has ever produced, and has potential to win this well. You could have gotten a phenomenal price about him earlier in the week. A profit for level stakes Each-way, for a horse of his standards, I thought was too good to be true and just can't see myself losing on the race. I think Silent Achiever has peaked, and owners will be ecstatic with what it has done this prep. Royal Descent and Green Moon are my dangers at decent prices, but at the 200m I think we'll witness something special with IAD, who from all the horses looks like it's ready to explode.

 

[Jugada]

No. I just don't rate the form out of his wins.

Also look at the field 5.5* beat in the BMW. Take out silent achiever and they were basically 2 mile handicappers.

Beating a two time Doncaster winner by 6 is more than impressive enough for me.

Take out Silent Achiever? Take out Sacred Falls and who did IAD beat?
You dont rate the horses Shamus beat but you do rate who IAD beat?

Shamus beat 12 G1 winners as a 3yo including Melbourne Cup, Aus Cup, Derby and Guineas winners
Outside Sacred Falls IAD was beating home Tatra and Kingdoms

 

[Gavin Excell]

Regular posters will know I'm completely bias towards IAD. I've mentioned his excuses in particular races and have backed him heavily a couple of times this campaign and have been burnt. I should have learnt after the first up run, where he looked well below par fitness wise, that he was probably a bit behind meaning he is just targeted for the big dance. I was just happy to watch him go round in the BMW, and the run was great. I think he'll be beating the best field the race has ever produced, and has potential to win this well. You could have gotten a phenomenal price about him earlier in the week. A profit for level stakes Each-way, for a horse of his standards, I thought was too good to be true and just can't see myself losing on the race. I think Silent Achiever has peaked, and owners will be ecstatic with what it has done this prep. Royal Descent and Green Moon are my dangers at decent prices, but at the 200m I think we'll witness something special with IAD, who from all the horses looks like it's ready to explode.

Silent Achiever has had its measure last two times - really see nothing to suggest it will be any different on Saturday

 

[iluvparis]

Take out Silent Achiever? Take out Sacred Falls and who did IAD beat?
You dont rate the horses Shamus beat but you do rate who IAD beat?

Shamus beat 12 G1 winners as a 3yo including Melbourne Cup, Aus Cup, Derby and Guineas winners
Outside Sacred Falls IAD was beating home Tatra and Kingdoms

I said I didn't rate the from, not that I didn't rate the horses he beat. That is not the same thing.

But as I said. If you don't think winning the triple crown is enough to be considered a champion 3yo then we are at an irreconcilable difference