April - Daily Punt

[A11dAtP0w3R]

So, I've decided to also back World Ace in the Doncaster to fill the quinella with Leebaz, more in hope that he has got his shit together this time around.

$17 is well overs if he brings his A game. Dont think a wet track is too much of a worry either.

Probably the only two ill back, nothing much else appeals at the price right now. Pornichet, well unders with me, as is Hallowed Crown.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Sires:

Think Tarquin is and will be the value for sure (may hold out for a better price), really liked that win last start. Picked up very well late, extra distance looks ideal, soft track not a worry.

Would be keener on Ready for Victory if it was a dry track. Just think there are too many question marks now, will he hang out again? (Price putting lugging bit on but no cert it will stop him) last 50m of 1400m? I think form wise Tarquin lines up pretty well with him anyway taking a line through Odyssey Moon. 1/2 length off RFV in the Golden Slipper, beaten 1 and 1/4 lengths by Tarquin the start before on a similar soft track to what we will probably get this weekend.

English looks like a pro, her manners will help her here over the 1400m, just think the GS run may have flattered her a touch, got all the favours but from barrier 9 may have to do some work here. No knock, just think Tarquin is the value. Rageese had every chance to beat Tarquin last start (dont take any notice of the blocked for a run in form guides) Tarquin clearly the stronger going through the line, a good run, but the Godolphin horse clearly has the edge to my eye despite being the same price.

Completely risking Pride of Dubai and Pasedena Girl, Melbourne 2yo form, meh, its yours. Odyssey Moon ill pass on for the 'been to the well too many times' factor. The rest i wouldn't back with your money.

1. Tarquin
2. Ready for Victory
3. English
4. Rageese

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Derby:

I was on Hauraki for a very nice amount last start and it was a very impressive win, call me an idiot but I'm jumping off the gravy train and heading over to one coming out of the same race beaten by 5 lengths, Ruling Dynasty. There is a sense of timing about this bloke and he is a dead set stayer. Love the way he kept coming to the line in the Tulloch. The 2400m will be no problem whatsoever.

I had a tiny something on Prefement last start as well at 50-1 and he gave me a hell of a race. Again, his timing is spot on for this, getting up to his best distance now, obviously a massive chance, I'm just going with the one at the better price, can clearly see him winning though.

Mongolian Khan will run a better race this time i think, did all the donkey work for the field last time, can see him getting a much better run over this trip though, value. Volkstock'n'barrell and Hauraki kind of fit into the same mould with me, would be keener on them in a 2000m race, just think the distance might negate their turn of foot. Omeros is a nicely bred stayer coming through but dont think he will be as strong at RD and P at the end of 2400m either, had the perfect soft run with Hauraki last start but was blown away 100m out, think it may well be a bit all too soon, maybe next prep.

Pass on the remainder.

1. Ruling Dynasty
2. Preferment
3. Mongolian Khan
4. Volstock'n'barrell

 

[iluvparis]

Rosehill - R7 - 5.Stevie Boy


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[rideclutch]

I was on Hauraki for a very nice amount last start and it was a very impressive win, call me an idiot but I'm jumping off the gravy train and heading over to one coming out of the same race beaten by 5 lengths, Ruling Dynasty. There is a sense of timing about this bloke and he is a dead set stayer. Love the way he kept coming to the line in the Tulloch. The 2400m will be no problem whatsoever.

Australian Derby hopeful Ruling Dynasty is suffering from a foot abscess four days out from the Classic at Randwick.

Trained by Bart and James Cummings, Ruling Dynasty is an $11 chance in Saturday's Derby.

James Cummings told stewards on Tuesday afternoon a poultice had been applied to the gelding's off-fore hoof and he would be monitored by the stable over the next few days.

He will also be inspected by the Racing NSW vet before he starts in the Derby.

 

[rideclutch]

Rosehill - R4 Tinsley Green

Might be ready to do something today at EW odds, 3rd up and out to 1400 the ticks and has won in the heavy too. He's no star, but it's a typical NMW race and a lot of his rivals will be a query at the distance or in the going. EW play.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Yea, much like Arabian Gold.

No all in market here, if scratched money back

 

[Cuzz09]

Sandown Race 8 no13 Clairvaux

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Start doing some heavy form if you haven't people, Randwick's going to turn into its usual swamp again:

http://www.racenet.com.au/news/110332/Randwick-gets-more-rain-and-the-rating-slides

 

[Cuzz09]

Sacred Falls 3 in a row in the mud?

 

[bombers21]

Sandown

R8- Kareeming

 

[iluvparis]

Rosehill - R7 - 5.Stevie Boy

Love it when you get overs on a well backed fave who folds quicker then ASADA while the 2nd-3rd and 4th faves run the tri

 

[Cuzz09]

Sandown Race 8 no13 Clairvaux

Just got home.... YOU BEAUTY!!!!

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Love it when you get overs on a well backed fave who folds quicker then ASADA while the 2nd-3rd and 4th faves run the tri

Ill feel exactly the same if Leebaz runs unplaced this weekend.

Just replace Special Fried Bryths with Jack Wattsth

 

[iluvparis]

LOL at the Gosford GUINEAS being a 1200m race.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Forecast worsened overnight could be heavy 10 Saturday. 90% chance of 10mm, expecting 25 though. Could depend on when they get it, but small amount of rain tomorrow will hurt.

Expecting Terravista to get through it best in TJ.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Forecast worsened overnight could be heavy 10 Saturday. 90% chance of 10mm, expecting 25 though. Could depend on when they get it, but small amount of rain tomorrow will hurt.

Expecting Terravista to get through it best in TJ.

Going to be a lot of horses running just because its a big day with no hope in the swamp.

People bag Melbourne's whether , my god Sydney's stinks at this time of year. The Championswamps.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Sooboog finally back at the races this Saturday in R1, been wondering where he's been. Mass money for it on debut against Vancouver and ran very well sitting outside him into a head wind that day. Would have to be ultra hard to beat on that form.

Problem though, Snitzerland, a full sister, couldn't go a yard on a heavy track. Tread very cautiously.

 

[Main Man]

With the forecast I'm warming to Royal Descent, I hadn't even realized that the Magic Man was on until this morning (shows how much emphasis I put on jockeys) & if anyone can snap her run of outs it is him.

I actually have her going better this time in then she was prior to the Epsom last year, her rating there is good enough to win this race, she progresses beautifully into it, will be in the right spot coming wide on the turn as the leaders fold on the biased track, handles wet, will run a strong 1600M and has the right man steering her.

Kermadec a huge chance if he runs, progresses well, nice weight and another who will be in the right spot, late sectionals suggest a strong run 1600M is no issue, to be honest though I'm hoping he doesn't run as he is the best of the day in the Carbine, again with the magic man on.

Hooked another good chance, has the Royal Descent Epsom form, comes out the of right race in the Ryder, a good weight and will be another getting wide on the turn, ran 2nd to Criterion this day last year on a bog over 2400M, strong run 1600M no issue, and he didn't hit peak from until 3rd of 4th run last time, here to peak.

Other hopes, Arabian Gold (barrier a concern), Sacred Falls (is he going well enough), Pornichet (not convinced he is good enough), & It's Somewhat.

The Japanese I'm going to have to risk in the conditions, as I said I think Real Impact was very very hard to beat on a good surface and a fair track but leading on a bog it is going to be nearly impossible for him to win.

 

[Main Man]

Other than that is looks a very thin day betting wise for me with the conditions, as I said hoping Kermadec runs in the Carbine as I think he will be winning that.

Have to stay out of the TJ Smith now, questions on the big 3 leading in, are they going as well as they can & the wet track just adds another dimension of uncertainty, leave me out.

Rest of the races very even.

Same can be said for Caulfield, Telopea interests me in the last but she is short enough and has to get a run.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Carn The Hipster, I'm on today.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I think this whore of a horse is costing me more than my old man pays in training and stable fees.

 

[iluvparis]

Going to be a lot of horses running just because its a big day with no hope in the swamp.

People bag Melbourne's whether , my god Sydney's stinks at this time of year. The Championswamps.

Underrated post.

 

[Aussie Assault]

There's some pretty ordinary fields / races at Randwick on Saturday. **** the rain.

 

[iluvparis]

Just looking at the BMW replay again and the greatest foreign horse to ever run in Australia put in a great Sydney Cup trial. If he gets a fair track and an even tempo I can't see much beating him (assuming all the classy horses go to the QE).