Are Essendon the real deal?

[Dan26]

Who do they edge out?

We have Sydney, Melbourne, Roos, Carlton (yeah.), and even Port who could finish in the middle order. I think roughly it'll end up being C'wood, Cats, Saints, Dogs, Hawks, Adelaide, Dockers who make up the top 7, so who gets the 8th spot out of those remaining 5-6? I think the only true 'locks' for bottom four are Richmond, GCFC, Brisbane and West Coast (will fade hard).

All my opinion though, however I think they will be very, VERY, close.

I don't like getting too much into these opinion pieces because time will tell. But there is not a snowflakes chance in hell that the top-4 as you have listed will be the same as last year. That would be the same top-4 three years running.

I made a thread a while back that showed that for 14 consecutive years (1995-2008) at least one team who missed the finals completely made the top FOUR the next season.

For fourteen years in a row.

Then in 2009, the streak ended and all the top-4 made the finals the year before.

And in 2010, not only did the top 4 all make the finals the year before but they all made the top-4 the year before!

Now, with the AFL's equalisation policies there has to be a breaking point. There is no way it will happen three years in a row. It just won't. It's against everything the AFL sets up their league to be.

Don't be surprised if there are a couple of really big sliders this year. I reckon at least one and maybe two top-4 teams from last year will slump to be 50-50 sides, which will put them on the fringe of, or just outside the eight.

 

[Godzke]

If Essendon don't finish 1st I'll take a dump out of a 20 storey building. How's that sound?

>.>

preseason expectation: 9th-12th
current expecation: 8th-12th

We'll have a fairly good idea after ANZAC Day. WBD, Syd (a), StK, Carl and Coll is about the toughest start out of any of the Vic teams.

 

[citizen-erased]

preseason everyone spoke of our early draw and how getting 2/5 would be very handy for us.
Starting 1/0 has obviously helped that but now a lot of people seem to be scrambling for a new way to knock the dons.

Rd 2 trip to sydney hasnt been a pleasant one in the past (or any trip for that matter).

Rd 3 against Saints has been one we have played a bogey team in over recent times. A win there could easily be tampered with the line that we have the wood over them

Rd 4 Carlton. Much the same as the saints. This has been the clash where we upset them. BLues turned it around on us last time

Rd 5 Anzac Day - site of the losing of Knight imo. Reigning premiers and league standard bearer. Anything less than a 10 goal thumping would be seen as a decent effort

Rd 6 Gold Coast. New kids. this was one of the wins pencilled in

Rd 7 Eagles in melbourne. Lost it twice last year. Eagles not tipped to have a big year. probably the other win pencilled in.

First 7 weeks tell our story
2/5 is par.
a win over saints, blues and/or swans are not out of question given what was seen over the weekend.
Come to round 5 and most teams are settling in. Loss to Pies and if we produce against the Suns and Eagles, could be 3/4, 4/3, 5/2 or 6/1 assuming the pies win.

Realistically, the win over the dogs has set up a very good season already if we can win the ones we should against the suns and eagles in melbourne.
Next up is Lions, Tigers, Bye & Dees.
We dont really step back out of our depth until Rd 12 taking Freo at home.

 

[Reckoner Tiger]

Still just too early to tell. This high they're riding could well implode, and quickly. However, they are looking very impressive.

They have four more really challenging games coming up against the Sydney away, St Kilda, Carlton and Collingwood. If they go 3-2 going into their Gold Coast game they have to be likely finalists, but until then, wait and see.

 

[rainman06]

I think if we can be 3-2 after ANZAC Day we should be very happy. Even 2-3 wouldn't be a disaster. From there on it is a marathon, anything can happen. Personally, I havent changed my prediction of anywhere between 6th-12th (Pretty big bracket I know).

 

[centrelink1]

I honestly couldn't care less if Essendon make the 8 this year. I want us to be top 4 contenders next year, though.

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

I don't know, we've only had one round.

This..

 

[Jesse Custer]

Can I get a Hell Yes?
Of course they'll make the 8

They're modelling their game on the premiers and they have talent oozing out of every orifice.

Lock it in.

lol, interesting way of putting it.

No, we're not ready yet. We'll hit a flatspot soon, it will be interesting to see if we can limit the goals during this period. We couldn't under Knights. Next year should see us start pushing up the ladder.

 

[damuzzdu]

What is it with Essendon supporters starting threads...

"Can we make the 8 or make the top 4, or we are premiership contenders can we go top etc etc"

This must be the at least 5th thread that has been created with the extact same theme in the past 3 weeks...FFS

PS - Too early to tell it is Rd1, but good start. Wait until at least Rd6-7 then you will know.

I think Dan26 can probably prove that if your team is in the eight @ Rd7 chances are that you will play in September.

In last 4 years there has only been one change in the make up of the eight to what teams eventually played the finals series that year.

 

[Jesse Custer]

What is it with Essendon supporters starting threads...

"Can we make the 8 or make the top 4, or we are premiership contenders can we go top etc etc"

This must be the at least 5th thread that has been created with the extact same theme in the past 3 weeks...FFS

PS - Too early to tell it is Rd1, but good start. Wait until at least Rd6-7 then you will know.

I think Dan26 can probably prove that if your team is in the eight @ Rd7 chances are that you will play in September.

In last 4 years there has only been one change in the make up of the eight to what teams eventually played the finals series that year.

Yeah ffs, only this time an Essendon supporter didn't start the thread....

 

[WN123]

In RD 1. 2008 with Mathew Knights at the helm for the very first time, Essendon flogged North Melbourne by just under 10 goals but they ended up finishing 12th that year.

True but in that game we lost our best player at that time (Scott Lucas - B & F from the previous year) to long term injury. Then in round 4 when we were 2 wins to 1 and leading the bulldogs late in the third we also lost McVeigh, who at the time was our next best player, to a long term injury - McVeigh got three brownlow votes in both those wins and was dominating against the Bulldogs (23 disposals well before 3/4 time) before he was injured - Bulldogs ran over us easliy after that.
Not many sides can cover the loss of their two best players - and we certainly didn't have the quality to.

 

[Slattery_20]

Will be pretty lucky to do any damage in finals. Get there? Line ball.

The only concern I have with them is their ability to physically impose themselves on a midfield that is willing to shut them down and play hard relentless contested football against them. I'm not only talking about teams employing negative tactics however, I'm thinking the type of football Geelong played between 2007-2009 where they monstered opposition midfields and tore them to pieces with better skill in close. Essendon weren't exposed to that on the weekend, in fact, they were given free reign to do what they pleased.

We've got guys who can physically cop any hit, we've got guys with the skill to get rid of it effectively: we've got precious few (really Watson, and IMHo Hocking's getting there) with both.

should finish between 6th and 8th, depending on when they burn out, because i dont think they have the players to play that way consistently all season.

I think that's what'll happen too: start 7-4 or so the first half of the year, and finish on about 11-13 wins.
Had a lot of fadeouts over seasons.

 

[Ricmel]

Yes I think they are. And it has surprised me, I thought they would be 2- 4 years away from being a real force again but looking at the team, they have,

• great big men - Hille, Ryder, Bellchamber
• A couple of potentially very good KPFs
• A fast midfield with a lot of run and a lot of players who can play through there
• Jobe Watson - one of the most under rated players in the AFL. Should not have been out of the top 30 players last 2 years and will be easily top 20 by year end
• An exciting coaching group.

I think they are genuine and next year will be real contenders for a flag.

 

[Slattery_20]

If Essendon don't finish 1st I'll take a dump out of a 20 storey building. How's that sound?

>.>

LOL, good.

 

[damuzzdu]

Yeah ffs, only this time an Essendon supporter didn't start the thread....

Ohhh shit Oops. Next time read the OP better .

Goes and hides under the table...

Despite that there seems to a lot of threads around the same theme in last 3 weeks.

 

[Jesse Custer]

Ohhh shit Oops. Next time read the OP better .

Goes and hides under the table...

Despite that there seems to a lot of threads around the same theme in last 3 weeks.

lol who cares mate.

You're right though. I hate this crap. But what do you do. We're only human.

 

[Oscarman]

I wonder how long they can keep it going, as they have been up since some time in January. Of course, if the W/L record after 12 rounds was 10-2 then even an occasional win after that would be enough to make the 8. Maybe this is Hird's plan - blitz early.

 

[Slattery_20]

Difficult to tell with Dogs missing 3 of their best defenders.

Slightly concerning all the same!!

Difference between a 6-7 goal result a 9 goal result; but we were racking up the clearances at will and stopping their run. Game was not won in our forward line.

Lake et al would have stopped a couple & rebounded but not that much. 2nd ruck would've been handy. Dunno where Gilbee sits these days.

 

[Yabba]

It's to early to tell, however if they can get an intestate win this weekend against a good side in Sydney it will go some way to showing me that we are a top 8 side.

What pleases me is the way that the side is playing, you can see clear structures that they are trying to use and everyone knows what their role in the side is. Whether that means finals are on the cards I am not sure, but so far so good.

 

[damuzzdu]

It's to early to tell, however if they can get an intestate win this weekend against a good side in Sydney it will go some way to showing me that we are a top 8 side.

What pleases me is the way that the side is playing, you can see clear structures that they are trying to use and everyone knows what their role in the side is. Whether that means finals are on the cards I am not sure, but so far so good.

Good post. My faith in Essendon supporters is now restored.

Until some 'Dons supporter starts a thread next week after winning..

"Can we go top 2 ? LOOOL

 

[Bomberman86]

I disagree. I think the top 4 will consist of Collingwood, St. Kilda, Western Bulldogs and Carlton actually. But only time will tell...

That is rubbish (for lack of a better word)

For what its worth, Essendon will NOT make the top 4 and anybody suggesting so has taken far too many shrooms over the weekend. IF in the unlikely event Essendon did make Top 4, it would be because of absolutely nothing we saw at this present point in time and due to an even more substantial improvement throughout the Season (Hence, not happening)

But, Carlton are rubbish im sorry. The difference between their top 5 players (A+) to their last 4 or 5 that round up the 22 is just unbelievable.

Neither are even close to top 4 at this present time, expecting finished between 6-12 for both (with Carlton more likely to get to the top end of that, and Essendon floating around 8-11 I would think)

 

[Bomberman86]

I wonder how long they can keep it going, as they have been up since some time in January. Of course, if the W/L record after 12 rounds was 10-2 then even an occasional win after that would be enough to make the 8. Maybe this is Hird's plan - blitz early.

It adds to the theory that Round 2 is already our biggest game for the first half of the year. It may not seem it, but its already quite substantial in the grand scheme of things. I think Essendon would back themselves comfortably against St Kilda & Carlton (going on recent history and form), and I think if we can get 4-1 after Anzac Day, we have a patch soon after of 4 or 5 teams that I reckon wed start favourites against.

Substantial chunk taken of your finals campaign if you can get off to a good start (and, even peak when your playing the good teams early)

Roll the dice, start the clock, time will tell

 

[Sin City]

How far away is Tayte Pears from playing?

 

[Jesse Custer]

How far away is Tayte Pears from playing?

Probably rd 5 and after.

 

[OB1]

How far away is Tayte Pears from playing?

1-15 weeks