Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremantle?

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

I was just having a long, hard think about some of the current "middle of the road teams". Looking at teams ranked 5th to 10th, there are 5 teams ( everyone bar St Kilda ), who look like they can significantly improve next year. Out of those 5 teams in Carlton, Essendon, Sydney, Fremantle & North Melbourne, I can't help but feel that North Melbourne have the best contingent of players aged 23 and under and the best coach out of those sides I mentioned.

Does anyone else get the feeling that North Melbourne will make massive inroads in 2012 and become a genuine premiership threat? They look like they have good, young talent all over the park.

Thoughts?

 

[Teffy]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

I'm interested in non aligned opinions and I encourage North supporters to stay out of this one, despite the trolling that will inevitably occur.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

I'm interested in non aligned opinions and I encourage North supporters to stay out of this one, despite the trolling that will inevitably occur.

I hope this thread doesn't go to shit, because I think it's an interesting discussion point. North Melbourne seem to fly under the radar, but having watched them closely this year and having attended a number of games, it looks like it's all about to click within the next 18 months for them.

 

[Madblue]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

No they are not.

 

[kd35]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

While I like North's crop of kids I feel a fit Freo have more upside next year than North and Freo should target the top 4.

But from that group with the upside of kids u-23 I think thats pretty spot on North have done a great job of stockpiling kids who at least seem to be able to play at a higher level when they mature.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

They have less holes than some of the sides you mentioned, and their midfield could potentially elevate to being as good as most of those sides. Right now, they are hard at it and willing, but inconsistent. The fact they are lifting for a finals charge is a plus and as players return from injury, they have scope for further improvement. They are certainly not the first of the 8th place contenders that I want to face.

Their midfield should come into their own in a couple of years but they are getting close now and can spring surprises. Still a mile off the top few sides though. They also need Petrie to continue to perform as the rest of their forwards are not near his level.

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

I think they are definitely more dangerous than Essendon (because of their injuries), Sydney & St.Kilda.

Carlton are still above them however.

 

[Underarm]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

well for starters I think Carlton is not a 'middle of the road' team. They are certainly better than Essendon, Sydney fremantle and north melbourne.

Fremantle is tough to asses, what with all there injuries. Who knows how that has affected their chances and how it will affect in the future.

But apart from that, North have a good list with a lot of upside.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

While I like North's crop of kids I feel a fit Freo have more upside next year than North and Freo should target the top 4.

But from that group with the upside of kids u-23 I think thats pretty spot on North have done a great job of stockpiling kids who at least seem to be able to play at a higher level when they mature.

I think Fremantle have a lot of good young kids as well, but it feels like we have been saying this for about 10 years and then something always goes wrong.

You're right, I was looking through the players aged 23 and under and they really have some super talented players in there. I also think Scott is a clever tactician and natural leader of men.

 

[JuddsABlue]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

I have always thought Essendon arent far away from getting a stellar team put together

Out of the 5 mentioned though I think Carlton are 2 or so years ahead of the other teams and have almost peaked their development. We have some players to grow and a gameplan to tweak to become contenders in the next 2 years and I think thats where we will end up, before Essendon/North have a shot

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

No way, half of Freos team were injured and North got them at a good time, they are probably a top 8 team next year, but not closer to a premiership

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

I think they are definitely more dangerous than Essendon (because of their injuries), Sydney & St.Kilda.

Carlton are still above them however.

I think Carlton are above them currently as well no doubt, but I think that the ceiling is higher at North Melbourne in that there is a lot more improvement in North Melbournes list than Carltons list currently. Carlton should be there or thereabouts for a couple of more years, but are just lacking in one or two key areas to be a Top 2 or 3 side. Who knows, they could fix those areas over summer and be a legitimite threat in 2012. But North Melbourne look like they are set for a 5 to 7 year period of sustained success.

They could meet in a final this year!

 

[ManWithNoName]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Can't see it myself. Their midfield is ahead of ours, but not by enough to make up for how far in front we are in terms of young forwards (Hurley, Crameri) and backs (Pears, Hooker).

That said I'm obviously biased here.

 

[Ry009]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

They have less holes than some of the sides you mentioned, and their midfield could potentially elevate to being as good as most of those sides. Right now, they are hard at it and willing, but inconsistent. The fact they are lifting for a finals charge is a plus and as players return from injury, they have scope for further improvement. They are certainly not the first of the 8th place contenders that I want to face.

Their midfield should come into their own in a couple of years but they are getting close now and can spring surprises. Still a mile off the top few sides though. They also need Petrie to continue to perform as the rest of their forwards are not near his level.

Very fair post mate, however Cam Pederson has been a massive find for us. After a stuttered start to the season has been very consistent for us this year.

 

[Slattery_20]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Not sure.
I'm always sceptical about long term predictions - far too many of them go wrong (don't they, HAD? ) over a year, let alone 2-3.
Certainly not ahead of Carlton, let's piss that one off real quick - they are a very good side.

The rest - quite possible. There's massive question marks on all of them; and a couple of wins here or there means 3/5ths of F all - North have fought out the season admirably after a tough start.

They've certainly been the most even of that bunch, but OTOH (without checking stats) the least injured as well.
Plenty to like about their list but I don't see a real edge/what would be termed 'upside'. That might just mean they will be a 'classic' type footy side who destroys teams with honest, hard, efficient football, or it might mean they'll be really easy to stop: I've no idea, it will also depend on which way the game swings tactically.
They certainly rely - heavily - on Wells who is injured/underdone more often than not and Petrie - who's rising 29. Harvey's year to year, Swallow IMHO will be a much better fit as captain.


With Essendon, Freo, (or Melbourne around that mark) you can see what they're trying to do and you can see it stack up briefly against the very best, and just as regularly see the poor, weak games where they are physically and mentally dominated. How much of that character is learnt, how much is natural?

I don't know if Sydney are that much chop, either. Have they won a game without the 30+ contingent - O'Keefe , Goodes, Bolton or Kennelly - dominating?

Now, onto the trolling...

 

[MaddAdam]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

I'm interested in non aligned opinions and I encourage North supporters to stay out of this one, despite the trolling that will inevitably occur.

Cheers for the tip Teffy. Anyway.

To be a genuine contender we need Hansen to step up and become the very good to elite CHB he can. I think the key to this is him being left to play the role for an extended period. Pedo is a far better proposition up forward than Lachie.

We also need one of Pederson or in my view the far more like Aaron Balck to become a genuine second tall forward threat alongside Petrie. If we have Petrie/Black there, we look better.

We also need one of Macmillan/Urqhart/Mullett/as yet undrafted to become the quality ball user off half back all good sides have.

None of these problems are insurmountable and in all cases we have the talent already in the club to fiull the hole.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Not sure.
I'm always sceptical about long term predictions - far too many of them go wrong (don't they, HAD? ) over a year, let alone 2-3.
Certainly not ahead of Carlton, let's piss that one off real quick - they are a very good side.

The rest - quite possible. There's massive question marks on all of them; and a couple of wins here or there means 3/5ths of F all - North have fought out the season admirably after a tough start.

They've certainly been the most even of that bunch, but OTOH (without checking stats) the least injured as well.

Just on the injury bit, we had over 60% of our list miss a month or more of the pre-season leading into this year and guys like Bastinac, Greenwood and Grime still working their way into it. Wonder why we started 2-7?

Anyway, interesting thread.

 

[shintemaster]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Just on the injury bit, we had over 60% of our list miss a month or more of the pre-season leading into this year and guys like Bastinac, Greenwood and Grime still working their way into it. Wonder why we started 2-7?

Anyway, interesting thread.

Don’t want to buy in too much because it will turn this thread bad quicker than it needs to and it’s interesting to see who sees what in other teams. That said, I don’t think we’ve had an easier run injury wise than a lot of teams, it’s just that as said we had ours in the pre season and early – with the obvious impact on performances and the improvements later on with a bit more stability.

 

[Yabba]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Agree about been skeptical on long term predictions, however, until a team is able to finish in the finals I don't think you can say that they are close to been a serious contender. All the other teams mentioned have made the finals recently, Freo last year, Essendon 2009 & likely this year, Carlton & Sydney for the last 3 seasons. For that reason alone I would have them a head of North.

North will probably make the finals next year, but these other teams are getting finals experience which is needed before you are able to really be a serious contender. I do like the look of their list though, probably only lacking a player to stand on the really big forwards.

I would also agree that the senior players are what is helping Sydney remain a strong side, I have question marks over some of their young players.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Just on the injury bit, we had over 60% of our list miss a month or more of the pre-season leading into this year and guys like Bastinac, Greenwood and Grime still working their way into it. Wonder why we started 2-7?

Anyway, interesting thread.

Speaking to a North Melbourne mate this morning, he was of thought that if you didn't cop so many injuries, you probably would have won quite a few of those close ones you lost. If that had of happened, you would be sitting in 6th spot right now and gearing up for a home final against beatable opposition.

 

[Yabba]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Speaking to a North Melbourne mate this morning, he was of thought that if you didn't cop so many injuries, you probably would have won quite a few of those close ones you lost. If that had of happened, you would be sitting in 6th spot right now and gearing up for a home final against beatable opposition.

Hoepfully this doesn't drag the thread down, but everyside gets injuries, Essendon were struggling a few weeks ago, Freo are decimated at the momemnt, the Hawks have their FF, FB & CHB out and are still clear 3rd best side.

Often you are able to throw a blanket over 7 or 8 sides and the key in determining where they end up finishing on the ladder is injuries.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Don’t want to buy in too much because it will turn this thread bad quicker than it needs to and it’s interesting to see who sees what in other teams. That said, I don’t think we’ve had an easier run injury wise than a lot of teams, it’s just that as said we had ours in the pre season and early – with the obvious impact on performances and the improvements later on with a bit more stability.

Yeah shinte, the direct correlation is there for all to see. Freo and Essendon have been pretty much ravaged in this sense too so full credit to the Bombers specifically for continuing to perform reasonably well despite the disadvantages.

I bring it up though because if an interview I heard with Matty Lloyd where he said that when he missed chunks of pre-season that he knew that he was never going to be 100% fit for the whole season and that invariably those guys that stood up on the dias to collect their B&f's or were right up there in the counts were blokes that had really strong pre-seasons. If that is to be believed then that's a lot of guys who are running around somewhat underdone. Funnily enough those that had full pre-seasons were Ziebell, Swallow, Goldstein, Wells and Harvey, arguably 5 of our best 7 this year.

But, as you say, everyone has issues like these, so what effect it has in comparison to any another team is very hard to judge.

 

[MaddAdam]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Speaking to a North Melbourne mate this morning, he was of thought that if you didn't cop so many injuries, you probably would have won quite a few of those close ones you lost. If that had of happened, you would be sitting in 6th spot right now and gearing up for a home final against beatable opposition.

We certainly would have beaten West Coast in Rd1 if we'd had Goldstein. Petrie got suspended for a bullcrap charge in the NAB Challenge and missed that one too.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Speaking to a North Melbourne mate this morning, he was of thought that if you didn't cop so many injuries, you probably would have won quite a few of those close ones you lost. If that had of happened, you would be sitting in 6th spot right now and gearing up for a home final against beatable opposition.

Maybe, but maybe not HAD. It's too hard to say.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Re: Are North Melbourne closer to being a serious contender than Carlton, Essendon, Sydney & Fremant

Very fair post mate, however Cam Pederson has been a massive find for us. After a stuttered start to the season has been very consistent for us this year.

I know you have Pederson and Edwards has also been good this year. I am thinking of that main focal point as Petrie is nearly 29. On that basis, we have to predict Pederson's progression rather than guarantee it. That creates a potential hole, that may or may not be filled to the same level. Petrie has been a colussus this season when I have seen him.