Fixture Are we better off finishing second

[Finnishpie]

Statistically I think that’s true. More premiers come from 2nd. I forget the reasoning.

 

[Albert Parker]

I hear where you're coming from and think an MCG qualifying final against Port or Brisbane might seem a little easier.

But when the Dees beat us
- we had Jordy, Sidey, McStay missing and I think the Daicos brothers and others were flu affected.

They'll get Oliver back, but I'm backing us in to win against them.

Let's keep winning and finish top.

 

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

If we finish 9th we don’t need to play any of them.

Sorry - reserved for Richmond or Carlton

 

[gerryg400]

Statistically I think that’s true. More premiers come from 2nd. I forget the reasoning.

No actually most win it from first. The following table shows that from 1st position, 66 won the flag and 43 were runners up. In other words more than half the flags have been worn by the minor premier.

First column is ladder position, 2nd column is number of flags with number of runners up in brackets.
1: 66 (43 ru)
2: 35 (39 ru)
3: 15 (17 ru)
4: 7 (21 ru)
5: 1 (3 ru)
6: 1 (3 ru)
7: 1 (0 ru)


For the Pies it's
1: 9 (8 ru) from 19 minor premierships
2: 6 (8 ru) from 21 2nd on ladder
3: 0 (4 ru) from 17 3rds
4: 0 (6 ru) from 20 4ths
5: 0 (1 ru) from 4 5ths


We've never made the gf from outside 5 and never won it from outside the top 2.

*** Hopefully no errors in this...

 

[Prexm]

The last time we won all our finals was 1953

That’s ok . That’s the last time there was a Coronation before this year

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Nope. Win as many as we can and put our girls in the best possible position to win the McLelland Trophy

 

[sideswipe]

No actually most win it from first. The following table shows that from 1st position, 66 won the flag and 43 were runners up. In other words more than half the flags have been worn by the minor premier.

First column is ladder position, 2nd column is number of flags with number of runners up in brackets.
1: 66 (43 ru)
2: 35 (39 ru)
3: 15 (17 ru)
4: 7 (21 ru)
5: 1 (3 ru)
6: 1 (3 ru)
7: 1 (0 ru)


For the Pies it's
1: 9 (8 ru) from 19 minor premierships
2: 6 (8 ru) from 21 2nd on ladder
3: 0 (4 ru) from 17 3rds
4: 0 (6 ru) from 20 4ths
5: 0 (1 ru) from 4 5ths


We've never made the gf from outside 5 and never won it from outside the top 2.

*** Hopefully no errors in this...

Only relevant data is that from the final 8 era and even then, probably only since the pre-finals bye has been introduced in 17. Exclude 2020 & 21 for weirdness gives 4 seasons of data. Not enough to make any conclusions but Gone Critical will already be antsy about the bye followed by a qualifying final win.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[sideswipe]

Nope. Win as many as we can and put our girls in the best possible position to win the McLelland Trophy

Winning club gets $1m. That is not insignificant!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Kes1984]

1st plays a team that's qualified 4th instead of 3rd, so should be a lesser opposition. 1st or 2nd ok with me. Home MCG final week one is all I care about.

 

[Finnishpie]

No actually most win it from first. The following table shows that from 1st position, 66 won the flag and 43 were runners up. In other words more than half the flags have been worn by the minor premier.

First column is ladder position, 2nd column is number of flags with number of runners up in brackets.
1: 66 (43 ru)
2: 35 (39 ru)
3: 15 (17 ru)
4: 7 (21 ru)
5: 1 (3 ru)
6: 1 (3 ru)
7: 1 (0 ru)


For the Pies it's
1: 9 (8 ru) from 19 minor premierships
2: 6 (8 ru) from 21 2nd on ladder
3: 0 (4 ru) from 17 3rds
4: 0 (6 ru) from 20 4ths
5: 0 (1 ru) from 4 5ths


We've never made the gf from outside 5 and never won it from outside the top 2.

*** Hopefully no errors in this...

Thanks G. I’m sure I heard an argument - maybe in sen - that finishing second was better statistically, but maybe they were including the possibility of travel in there or something. Anyway, cheers.

 

[Vicky Park]

Our collective anxiety is on display in this thread, born of decades of disappointment. I get it that some are worried about the makeup of the final four/eight, who we might play and where, and the different ways it can go.

But we fans can’t control any of this so just enjoy the ride! Embrace the fact that we are the top team ‘for a reason’ (to misquote Bruzzy) and right now we deserve top spot. Let the other teams worry about playing us at the G. They should be terrified.

 

[YouBeauty]

Our collective anxiety is on display in this thread, born of decades of disappointment. I get it that some are worried about the makeup of the final four/eight, who we might play and where, and the different ways it can go.

But we fans can’t control any of this so just enjoy the ride! Embrace the fact that we are the top team ‘for a reason’ (to misquote Bruzzy) and right now we deserve top spot. Let the other teams worry about playing us at the G. They should be terrified.

Agree its a cultural thing so ingrained in us.

 

[Gilbert_Grape]

Our collective anxiety is on display in this thread, born of decades of disappointment. I get it that some are worried about the makeup of the final four/eight, who we might play and where, and the different ways it can go.

But we fans can’t control any of this so just enjoy the ride! Embrace the fact that we are the top team ‘for a reason’ (to misquote Bruzzy) and right now we deserve top spot. Let the other teams worry about playing us at the G. They should be terrified.

Yep, home ground advantage is huge this year so the winner of a Coll v Melb QF should be in the box seat.

In the games between the top 4, all are 2 wins, 2 losses.
But home team has won 7 & away team has won 1. (Melb was the nominal home team v Coll)

Full season:


Coll & Bris haven't lost at "home" (though Coll lost to Melb at the 'G). Bris is 0-2 at the 'G.
Melb 8-2 "home" (but includes L v GWS in Alice Springs. Only lost to Freo at the 'G)
Port 8-2 home (but includes L v Adel), 2-1 at the 'G (only loss to Coll)

(Melb & Coll both 9-1 just in games at the 'G)

So on face value a huge home advantage.

But all have lost plenty of home finals v interstate opponents in recent years.
Bris - QF, SF 2019, PF 2020, SF 2021
Port - PF 2020, PF 2021
Melb - QF & SF 2022
Coll - 2019 PF

Maybe they'll learn from those losses. But I have more confidence in McRae over Hinkley or Fagan for mental prep, just on a hunch (Ken's attempt at mind games last week reeked of insecurity, Fagan looks more panicked than my mum in close games - surely that spreads).

Not concerned about prior losses at all - Bris was away with no ruck, Melb was no DeGoey (or Oliver in fairness). & both before Daicos moved full time mid.

Last year we might have pinched it all if we'd held on v Geelong in the QF.
But hopefully we're on the right side this time.
& at least there is no 'dynasty' team this year to overcome (or if it turns out there is one in hindsight, hopefully that's us!)

 

[Vicky Park]

& at least there is no 'dynasty' team this year to overcome (or if it turns out there is one in hindsight, hopefully that's us!)

This! Geelong holds no fear for me, and nor does Melbourne. Brisbane I see as our main challenger (at this stage).

 

[OniAu]

Dont over think it.

We have the best coach going around currently to downplay any nervous tendencies come finals time.

If we can go in with a great healthy list. I feel we have a chance to beat anyone , anywhere. Brisbane at Gabba included.

 

[thebaldfacts]

Don't want us to lose another game this year.

Clubs should be worried about playing us and not the other way around.

 

[Chameleon75]

If we’re good enough we win, if we don’t we’re not. The who, where when are just details.

 

[cityslick1]

have been thinking this for a while... and why I wouldnt have been upset if we lost to Port. Bris in Melb would be a lot easier match than Melb. No diff to finishing 4th and Melb first

 

[nahnah]

Our only job is to win our next game

 

[Gone Critical]

Only relevant data is that from the final 8 era and even then, probably only since the pre-finals bye has been introduced in 17. Exclude 2020 & 21 for weirdness gives 4 seasons of data. Not enough to make any conclusions but Gone Critical will already be antsy about the bye followed by a qualifying final win.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Sidey you are right about me. AFLs concept of a balanced sporting fixture left the house years ago and what we have left with is a compromised system bent towards maximising entertainment and dollars at the expense of fairness.

The final 8 is a terrible system overall and the 4 top teams being even statistically at the start of the finals has quite dramatically altered the benefits of finishing 1st on the ladder compared to the vastly superior final 4 and 5 systems.

Basic result is finishing on top doesnt really confer any advantage and the best way to win the flag is to be the team in form heading into the finals not be the best team all year. This is even more so after the finals bye has distorted things even more.

My view on 2023 is the top 4 is pretty even and given the system doesnt reward top place to any significant extent its a pretty even go between Pies, Lions, Power and Dees. I would have us mild favs out of the four. Any data you ask ? Yep


Value of finishing high on the ladder to winning the flag

Top 4 system (last 20 years was all I looked at) 1st 11 flags, 2nd 7 flags, 3rd no flags, 4th 2 flags
Top 5 system (lasted 19 seasons) 1st 10 flags, 2nd 5 flags, 3rd 4 flags, 4th no flags
Top 6/8 system between 91-99 a mismash and crap 1st 3 flags, 2nd 3 flags, 4th 2 flags, 5th 1 flag (only system where 5th team could lose 1st final and survive, a farce)

Current top 8 system (23 flags) 1st 8 flags, 2nd 7 flags, 3rd 7 flags, 7th 1 flag ( Dogs flag a result of getting a finals bye, almost certainly dont win without it)


Put simply compare the 39 seasons of final 4/5 (I only went back that far) to the 23 seasons of the currnt top 8

1st 21 flags v 8 flags
2nd 12 flags v 7 flags
3rd 4 flags v 7 flags
4th 2 flags v 0 flags

leaving 1 7th placed flag as the biggest exception.

The final 4/5 clearly gave benefit for finishing on top. Thats as it should be. Team on top should be the best team and should win an advantage over the teams below it for finishing on top. Therefore any good system would have the top team clearly winning the biggest number of flags

Unfortunately at AFL house that pretty simple, fair concept went out the window years ago and we may be the fall guy in 2023.

Top 5 clearly the best system as top team gets a clear reward which is a little diluted with the top 4.

Longterm solution. Get a 20th licence, have two conferences of 10 each with a final 5 and then the two conference champs play off in a Grand Final. Now that would be a good fair system.

 

[windchimes]

Sidey you are right about me. AFLs concept of a balanced sporting fixture left the house years ago and what we have left with is a compromised system bent towards maximising entertainment and dollars at the expense of fairness.

The final 8 is a terrible system overall and the 4 top teams being even statistically at the start of the finals has quite dramatically altered the benefits of finishing 1st on the ladder compared to the vastly superior final 4 and 5 systems.

Basic result is finishing on top doesnt really confer any advantage and the best way to win the flag is to be the team in form heading into the finals not be the best team all year. This is even more so after the finals bye has distorted things even more.

My view on 2023 is the top 4 is pretty even and given the system doesnt reward top place to any significant extent its a pretty even go between Pies, Lions, Power and Dees. I would have us mild favs out of the four. Any data you ask ? Yep


Value of finishing high on the ladder to winning the flag

Top 4 system (last 20 years was all I looked at) 1st 11 flags, 2nd 7 flags, 3rd no flags, 4th 2 flags
Top 5 system (lasted 19 seasons) 1st 10 flags, 2nd 5 flags, 3rd 4 flags, 4th no flags
Top 6/8 system between 91-99 a mismash and crap 1st 3 flags, 2nd 3 flags, 4th 2 flags, 5th 1 flag (only system where 5th team could lose 1st final and survive, a farce)

Current top 8 system (23 flags) 1st 8 flags, 2nd 7 flags, 3rd 7 flags, 7th 1 flag ( Dogs flag a result of getting a finals bye, almost certainly dont win without it)


Put simply compare the 39 seasons of final 4/5 (I only went back that far) to the 23 seasons of the currnt top 8

1st 21 flags v 8 flags
2nd 12 flags v 7 flags
3rd 4 flags v 7 flags
4th 2 flags v 0 flags

leaving 1 7th placed flag as the biggest exception.

The final 4/5 clearly gave benefit for finishing on top. Thats as it should be. Team on top should be the best team and should win an advantage over the teams below it for finishing on top. Therefore any good system would have the top team clearly winning the biggest number of flags

Unfortunately at AFL house that pretty simple, fair concept went out the window years ago and we may be the fall guy in 2023.

Top 5 clearly the best system as top team gets a clear reward which is a little diluted with the top 4.

Longterm solution. Get a 20th licence, have two conferences of 10 each with a final 5 and then the two conference champs play off in a Grand Final. Now that would be a good fair system.

The upside of this would be the catharsis of never having to hear the term 'Vic Bias' uttered again by salty Power and Eagles supporters.

 

[sideswipe]

Sidey you are right about me. AFLs concept of a balanced sporting fixture left the house years ago and what we have left with is a compromised system bent towards maximising entertainment and dollars at the expense of fairness.

The final 8 is a terrible system overall and the 4 top teams being even statistically at the start of the finals has quite dramatically altered the benefits of finishing 1st on the ladder compared to the vastly superior final 4 and 5 systems.

Basic result is finishing on top doesnt really confer any advantage and the best way to win the flag is to be the team in form heading into the finals not be the best team all year. This is even more so after the finals bye has distorted things even more.

My view on 2023 is the top 4 is pretty even and given the system doesnt reward top place to any significant extent its a pretty even go between Pies, Lions, Power and Dees. I would have us mild favs out of the four. Any data you ask ? Yep


Value of finishing high on the ladder to winning the flag

Top 4 system (last 20 years was all I looked at) 1st 11 flags, 2nd 7 flags, 3rd no flags, 4th 2 flags
Top 5 system (lasted 19 seasons) 1st 10 flags, 2nd 5 flags, 3rd 4 flags, 4th no flags
Top 6/8 system between 91-99 a mismash and crap 1st 3 flags, 2nd 3 flags, 4th 2 flags, 5th 1 flag (only system where 5th team could lose 1st final and survive, a farce)

Current top 8 system (23 flags) 1st 8 flags, 2nd 7 flags, 3rd 7 flags, 7th 1 flag ( Dogs flag a result of getting a finals bye, almost certainly dont win without it)


Put simply compare the 39 seasons of final 4/5 (I only went back that far) to the 23 seasons of the currnt top 8

1st 21 flags v 8 flags
2nd 12 flags v 7 flags
3rd 4 flags v 7 flags
4th 2 flags v 0 flags

leaving 1 7th placed flag as the biggest exception.

The final 4/5 clearly gave benefit for finishing on top. Thats as it should be. Team on top should be the best team and should win an advantage over the teams below it for finishing on top. Therefore any good system would have the top team clearly winning the biggest number of flags

Unfortunately at AFL house that pretty simple, fair concept went out the window years ago and we may be the fall guy in 2023.

Top 5 clearly the best system as top team gets a clear reward which is a little diluted with the top 4.

Longterm solution. Get a 20th licence, have two conferences of 10 each with a final 5 and then the two conference champs play off in a Grand Final. Now that would be a good fair system.

Fixturing has rarely been "even". The 12 team VFL was introduced in 1925 and stuck around until 1990. Any idea when the 22 round season was introduced?

 

[Gilbert_Grape]

No actually most win it from first. The following table shows that from 1st position, 66 won the flag and 43 were runners up. In other words more than half the flags have been worn by the minor premier.

First column is ladder position, 2nd column is number of flags with number of runners up in brackets.
1: 66 (43 ru)
2: 35 (39 ru)
3: 15 (17 ru)
4: 7 (21 ru)
5: 1 (3 ru)
6: 1 (3 ru)
7: 1 (0 ru)


For the Pies it's
1: 9 (8 ru) from 19 minor premierships
2: 6 (8 ru) from 21 2nd on ladder
3: 0 (4 ru) from 17 3rds
4: 0 (6 ru) from 20 4ths
5: 0 (1 ru) from 4 5ths


We've never made the gf from outside 5 and never won it from outside the top 2.

*** Hopefully no errors in this...

Or since 2000 (final 8):
1: 8 wins
2: 7 wins
3: 7 wins (3x Rich, Bris x 1, Haw x 1 = 5 'dynasty teams' + Syd x 2)
4: 0 wins (Not looking so good for Melb!)
7: 1 win (WB)


Since 2016 (pre-finals bye) small sample but:
5 premiers won their QF (bye week 2)
Only 1 premier lost week 1 (Rich 2020).
Only 1 came from outside top 4 (won week 1 but no bye week 2).

Most likely path is still to finish top 4 (ideally top 2 unless you're a dynasty team) + win QF.

 

[Harry O]

Reckon Port might finish 4th anyway

They put everything in to beating us - resting players , tried to paint us as arrogant etc, but still came up short

Doubt they beat Geelong at the cattery . Every chance they lose one of showdown , Richmond or Giants games

In that scenario both Brisbane and Melbourne could finish above them

And Port week 1 at the G I would be happy with

 

[sideswipe]

Sidey you are right about me. AFLs concept of a balanced sporting fixture left the house years ago and what we have left with is a compromised system bent towards maximising entertainment and dollars at the expense of fairness.

The final 8 is a terrible system overall and the 4 top teams being even statistically at the start of the finals has quite dramatically altered the benefits of finishing 1st on the ladder compared to the vastly superior final 4 and 5 systems.

Basic result is finishing on top doesnt really confer any advantage and the best way to win the flag is to be the team in form heading into the finals not be the best team all year. This is even more so after the finals bye has distorted things even more.

My view on 2023 is the top 4 is pretty even and given the system doesnt reward top place to any significant extent its a pretty even go between Pies, Lions, Power and Dees. I would have us mild favs out of the four. Any data you ask ? Yep


Value of finishing high on the ladder to winning the flag

Top 4 system (last 20 years was all I looked at) 1st 11 flags, 2nd 7 flags, 3rd no flags, 4th 2 flags
Top 5 system (lasted 19 seasons) 1st 10 flags, 2nd 5 flags, 3rd 4 flags, 4th no flags
Top 6/8 system between 91-99 a mismash and crap 1st 3 flags, 2nd 3 flags, 4th 2 flags, 5th 1 flag (only system where 5th team could lose 1st final and survive, a farce)

Current top 8 system (23 flags) 1st 8 flags, 2nd 7 flags, 3rd 7 flags, 7th 1 flag ( Dogs flag a result of getting a finals bye, almost certainly dont win without it)


Put simply compare the 39 seasons of final 4/5 (I only went back that far) to the 23 seasons of the currnt top 8

1st 21 flags v 8 flags
2nd 12 flags v 7 flags
3rd 4 flags v 7 flags
4th 2 flags v 0 flags

leaving 1 7th placed flag as the biggest exception.

The final 4/5 clearly gave benefit for finishing on top. Thats as it should be. Team on top should be the best team and should win an advantage over the teams below it for finishing on top. Therefore any good system would have the top team clearly winning the biggest number of flags

Unfortunately at AFL house that pretty simple, fair concept went out the window years ago and we may be the fall guy in 2023.

Top 5 clearly the best system as top team gets a clear reward which is a little diluted with the top 4.

Longterm solution. Get a 20th licence, have two conferences of 10 each with a final 5 and then the two conference champs play off in a Grand Final. Now that would be a good fair system.

Also, conferences suck. Are you suggesting an 18 round season where you play only within your conference twice? Or a 19 round season where you play everyone, and the conferences are just some arbitrary split used only during finals?

Both of those options are horrendous.

Either way, the players(and the execs and the game) would take a massive hair cut from 4 or so less H&A games, and we would see less footy.