Strategy Are we nearing the end? Rebuild 2018?

[FredLeDeux]

Any fan advocating heading to the bottom to get top picks should have a look at Carlton. They have been coming for 10 odd years with early draft picks and still treading water.

Maybe the recruiters should be bypassing players who have a history of injury problems instead of thinking they will be bargains only to find they spend their careers in the medical room.

The strong Victorian teams have strong VFL teams teaching the up and comers but our VFL side has trouble finding any fit senior listed players and a reluctance to play but instead rest players.

Over the last 10 seasons, of the 16 relevant clubs (ie excluding GC/GWS)
- 3 have won premierships with a mainly draft-built model (maybe 4 if you count Hawthorn 2008)
- 2 have won their premierships via a strong emphasis on top-up
- 11, using mainly draft-built models, have failed to win premierships

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

 

[Boxhead_31]

We are in the middle of a rebuild, aren't we?
8 debutants this year, retired a bunch of veterans the last two years with more to go this year.
Only thing we are doing different to the traditional rebuild is we are still being competitive.

 

[Boxhead_31]

All those players in their prime. Why are so many people having difficulty understanding the context? Acquiring players like that was awesome, but we are adding it to an average core list. Most of those players will be finishing or finished in 5 years time.

That's why I have stated 2018 as the year, if we have 2 more harrowing finals campaigns including this year it would be negligent to not consider a full list overhaul from the ground up.

To undertake a traditional rebuild in the 2018 offseason we have to limit this seasons offseasons moves so basically what it comes down to is we have to win it this year and forget about Smith, Hopper and Ablett this offseason, go into 2018 with the list we have now to ensure we have the currency to begin a traditional rebuild in the 2018 offseason.

 

[winty]

How many of those drafted were rated as quality talents? If you bring in a lot of late ND picks and rookie picks, you're unlikely to find quality, long-term players out of the crop. That's the law of averages. Geelong has also not used its early draft picks particularly well recently, or has really failed to develop them.

Top draft picks aren't necessarily the pick of the crop though. Case in point, Mitch Thorp was drafted at pick 7 in the 2006 draft, and Justin Westhoff was picked at pick 71 in the same draft.

 

[cynical]

Need to change our philosophy and put youth ahead of this pretend premiership tilt.

We already have the worst youth in the comp.

Should be retiring some of the oldies (Taylor, Lonergan, maybe Mackie), moving on the soft types like Motlop/Guthrie/Stanley. I'd also be fine getting rid of Menzel and a few others who are always injured.

Expect a long period outside the 8.

 

[you pick one]

Time to loosen up the no dick head policy and increase the size of our draft pool and hopefully add some grunt to this vanilla outfit going forward,no more recruiting geriatrics and cheap injury riddled players.And if you can't kick hand ball and take a contested mark your not wanted we have them in plague proportions already.

 

[you pick one]

I just shake my head at this comment.
I almost don't know where to start. But I'll try.


We don't, and never will have pick 2. And the next pick would be pick 20 at best.
What bloody elite players do you expect us to develop?

How about just developing players into bloody good players.
FFS there's about 20 elite players in the league full stop. Some of you need to get your heads out of your arse and start thinking about what it takes to continually generate $70 million. AND stay relevant.

I've got a feeling there's a few people at Geelong that are way, way ahead of you.

Excuse me for butting in Tony,but what players have we developed into bloody good player even?
In the last 10 years the best I can see are Motlop(fading)Varcoe(gone)Menzel(rooted)Duncan(success)Pods(success)Guthrie(????)Blitz(success)

Cocky Gregson,Ruggles Menengola Bews and McCarthy the new hopefuls.

 

[SydneyMalakellis]

I'm not sure who suggested it but put Rhys Stanley in the backline. He could totally revive his career ala Liam Jones. He's got all the physical skills, but none of the football nous. In the backline he could use his athleticism, and just be lead to the ball.

 

[JackFlash]

Massive re-build required, there is no depth and the only reason the Cats are in the top 8 is because it's been a very weak season. Close, but weak, there is no stand out team. The 6th, 7th and 8th teams could easily play off this year and none of them are certainties to even make the 8! They're all better than us!

 

[Jeff76]

I'm not sure who suggested it but put Rhys Stanley in the backline. He could totally revive his career ala Liam Jones. He's got all the physical skills, but none of the football nous. In the backline he could use his athleticism, and just be lead to the ball.

Not as stupid as it sounds really. Give him to Scarlo as a project, he's done well with Stewart.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I'm not sure who suggested it but put Rhys Stanley in the backline. He could totally revive his career ala Liam Jones. He's got all the physical skills, but none of the football nous. In the backline he could use his athleticism, and just be lead to the ball.

In order to protect the immaculately innocent, I will let you know who suggested this, only when and if it happens and succeeds.

 

[Whit3y]

However one thing I find super frustrating is our inability to produce some real good young talent. If you brush over our drafting since 2007 you can probably say Taylor in 2008 was our last player to go A grade. Perhaps Mitch Duncan unlucky to come into this consideration, but I think we can all agree he will probably never reach that level. Since 2007 I feel we have drafted players who could be considered 'serviceable' Motlop, Varcoe, Guthrie, Menzal, Bews, Murdoch, Blicavs, Thurlow and Kolo for example. While many are still improving some listed have reached a very short ceiling, while recognizing some had adverse circumstances; perhaps Menzal was our new gun before his injury stint.

Time to move wells on and get some fresh ideas?

if you are correct about taylor was our last player to go A grade and he was recruited in 2008 then that is a massive concern and wells position should be looked at

 

[Catman]

What do we rebuild with? We don't finish low enough to have early picks and recruit the elite talent.

Do people expect we trade some big names to get these picks? I'm genuinely curious.

After the aggressive trading period of the past two years and if the rumours are correct, this year too, I can't see them undoing all that work to start again.



On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[year of the cat]

In order to protect the immaculately innocent, I will let you know who suggested this, only when and if it happens and succeeds.

Don't be concerned Fred if you have sudden onset dementia. I think it's highly unlikely you will need to get back to Spiro with the name.

 

[Partridge]

What do we rebuild with? We don't finish low enough to have early picks and recruit the elite talent.

Do people expect we trade some big names to get these picks? I'm genuinely curious.

After the aggressive trading period of the past two years and if the rumours are correct, this year too, I can't see them undoing all that work to start again.

By elite talent do you mean players of the quality of Enright, Milburn, Chapman, Ling, or Johnson? None taken inside the first 20.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

By elite talent do you mean players of the quality of Enright, Milburn, Chapman, Ling, or Johnson? None taken inside the first 20.

You need to move past this.
The quality of recruitment and scouting has improved since these were all drafted and renders this comparison irrelevant.

 

[TheYid]

I think we were in the middle of a rebuild, but white ants set in, and we came crashing down prematurely

I agree with this. Injuries, which are largely (but not entirely) unpredictable have hammered us bad this year. Worst I can remember for ages.

 

[Cezz The Catter]

If we are talking absolutes ... then of course there is a tipping point ,it would be unrealistc to expect a VFL side to win but just when does that have to be recognised as more than a singular one year event of bad luck. What are we..2 from 9 post 2011? So if we lost Danger and Selwood .. id agree its highly unlikely we will win a final ...and Im sure the more forgiving of us will be able to rally a string of reasons that may excuse the club for yet another failure. To me it would go a fair way to unfortunately confirming the acerbic commentary ... that we are too reliant on them. The out I would concede to would be if the lesser knowns played so well and did show the direction you mention.

Anyway I doubt Dangerwood will be missing ..its more likely that both will be playing fit or not.

My main thrust for all of this year has been that finals results are what counts and what a club should be gauged on , so to then give the club an out feels rather inconsistent to me.

Sorry mate couldn't resist this opportunity.

Will reply to a lot of you later on, pleased with the response and discussion though!

 

[Cezz The Catter]

FFS.. In the last two years we have drafted something like 18 players (yes that includes rookies) PLUS 5-7 guys we traded in over the past 3.
We have already rebuilt.

We are in the middle of a rebuild, aren't we?
8 debutants this year, retired a bunch of veterans the last two years with more to go this year.
Only thing we are doing different to the traditional rebuild is we are still being competitive.

Boys i can see you point but i disagree entirely. We're not rebuilding at all, a traditional rebuild would be the method Melbourne, Doggies and Carlton followed bottoming out and building off the back of picks 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round, etc. While I don't think you have to bottom out to rebuild, you definitely back in the draft to develop a core list of players around the same age and make them play together for 5+ years, as opposed to trading. Trading worthy players out in order to receive good picks is obviously an exception, re: Ward (WBD), Menzel (CARL), etc. This way you've got more chance of striking it rich with early selections who have performed well in TAC and combine. Bold decisions have to be made for the latter to work and I sure am glad I'm not making them.

I see our last 2 years as being more of a panic, cutting deadwood and filling the list with players to meet minimal list requirements. At the same time we traded in older players (who are very good mind you) to technically fill an age gap and provide a depth. I don't see many of our picks taken in the last 2 years around the 18-19yo mark making it.

To undertake a traditional rebuild in the 2018 offseason we have to limit this seasons offseasons moves so basically what it comes down to is we have to win it this year and forget about Smith, Hopper and Ablett this offseason, go into 2018 with the list we have now to ensure we have the currency to begin a traditional rebuild in the 2018 offseason.

See I'd make a concession there and I probably haven't communicated it effectively. Smith and Hopper make sense, Smith is proven, he's also young. Hopper looks a talent, while also being young. I don't think I would want us to take on anything over 24 years old until we establish a good core list.

The big names come to clubs to join other big names with the promise of flags. Once Danger, Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor are well and truly on the downward path (in 2-3 years perhaps) who do we have rising through the ranks? It's very important we acquire good young players now through the draft.

 

[Cezz The Catter]

I just shake my head at this comment.
I almost don't know where to start. But I'll try.


We don't, and never will have pick 2. And the next pick would be pick 20 at best.
What bloody elite players do you expect us to develop?

How about just developing players into bloody good players.
FFS there's about 20 elite players in the league full stop. Some of you need to get your heads out of your arse and start thinking about what it takes to continually generate $70 million. AND stay relevant.

I've got a feeling there's a few people at Geelong that are way, way ahead of you.

Unsure on this one, I see where you are coming from.

We have 2 elite players. I respect there probably is around 20 in the comp as well.

Where we need to improve is in the very good player category. When that's thrown in the mix, our list slips away. We have 2 elite players, a few very good players and after that you've got hoards of good and average players.

It would be unrealistic to think that we would acquire elite players with every pick. Maybe 1 in every 5 drafts. But we should be acquiring a whole lot more very good players. The players from 5-20 on a clubs list is where the real grunt work comes from.

 

[Cezz The Catter]

Top draft picks aren't necessarily the pick of the crop though. Case in point, Mitch Thorp was drafted at pick 7 in the 2006 draft, and Justin Westhoff was picked at pick 71 in the same draft.

By elite talent do you mean players of the quality of Enright, Milburn, Chapman, Ling, or Johnson? None taken inside the first 20.

The draft has evolved since then, TAC cup is more highly monitored. The Draft Combine is so much more rigidly assessed.

You only have to look at the last 3 drafts to realise club recruiters seem to have got it pretty worked out on whose going to go big. Perhaps you'll pull the occasional rabbit out of the hat at the back end.

You need to move past this.
The quality of recruitment and scouting has improved since these were all drafted and renders this comparison irrelevant.

 

[Riessy]

Boys i can see you point but i disagree entirely. We're not rebuilding at all, a traditional rebuild would be the method Melbourne, Doggies and Carlton followed bottoming out and building off the back of picks 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round, etc. While I don't think you have to bottom out to rebuild, you definitely back in the draft to develop a core list of players around the same age and make them play together for 5+ years, as opposed to trading. Trading worthy players out in order to receive good picks is obviously an exception, re: Ward (WBD), Menzel (CARL), etc. This way you've got more chance of striking it rich with early selections who have performed well in TAC and combine. Bold decisions have to be made for the latter to work and I sure am glad I'm not making them.

I see our last 2 years as being more of a panic, cutting deadwood and filling the list with players to meet minimal list requirements. At the same time we traded in older players (who are very good mind you) to technically fill an age gap and provide a depth. I don't see many of our picks taken in the last 2 years around the 18-19yo mark making it.



See I'd make a concession there and I probably haven't communicated it effectively. Smith and Hopper make sense, Smith is proven, he's also young. Hopper looks a talent, while also being young. I don't think I would want us to take on anything over 24 years old until we establish a good core list.

The big names come to clubs to join other big names with the promise of flags. Once Danger, Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor are well and truly on the downward path (in 2-3 years perhaps) who do we have rising through the ranks? It's very important we acquire good young players now through the draft.

I can understand why you would be disheartened with some of our performances this year. But to want to be like Melbourne or Carlton is something I would rather our club didn't do.

Liam Jones is the biggest thing to happen to Carlton since Judd and they've had copious number 1 picks with more coming.

As for Melbourne this was their year. Theirs and St. Kilda. And we were supposed to fall out of the 8.

Both those clubs have high draft picks but lack what we have. (and what Sydney have even more so as evidence on Friday night)

 

[cynical]

I can understand why you would be disheartened with some of our performances this year. But to want to be like Melbourne or Carlton is something I would rather our club didn't do.

Liam Jones is the biggest thing to happen to Carlton since Judd and they've had copious number 1 picks with more coming.

As for Melbourne this was their year. Theirs and St. Kilda. And we were supposed to fall out of the 8.

Both those clubs have those high clubs but lack what we have. (and what Sydney have even more so as evidence on Friday night)

We are going to end up like those clubs whether we like it or not. When you keep topping up you get to a point where there is no young talent left.

When we had a heap of talent we should have moved on some of those players to kick start a rebuild, instead we topped up and now we dont have trade-able players with currency.

To win a flag you need a core group around the same age who are above average players. Duncan at 26 is the youngest elite player, everyone younger than Duncan has question marks. What that means in the future is that we are going to end up topping up to make finals or finishing bottom 4 for many years.

 

[nananana catman]

What defines a rebuild? Because I hate the idea of bringing up young, talented players in a losing culture. Further to that it seems about the most ineffective way to win a flag.

I wonder if we'd rebuilt at the end of 2013 only to make a prelim in 2016, and be top 4 in 2017 if there'd be calls for a rebuild? The reliance we have on aging senior players is limited so I'm not exactly sure what it would achieve?

I'm not against the moving on or replacement of underperforming players (e.g. Motlop, Guthrie etc) however that isn't a rebuild, it's smart list management.