Australia can be trusted with F-22 Raptor, says Robert Gates

[Belnakor]

invasion? pfft

teh reality is it would be cheaper to just buy the resources or the infrastructure they want.

they need food? buy the farms, they need steal? buy the mines.

the cost to invade is terribly expensive and something that most countries can't do.

Indonesia already has a huge standing army. They don't have the money to buy mines, and even if they did i doubt we would be selling our mines to the Indonesian government somehow. Life and People is cheap in Indonesia, never forget that. They would rather spent troops dying then actually buy something.

even the US is struggling to finance its occupation of afghanistan and iraq, both nations with smaller geographic areas that australia and similar population base.

Give me a break, they have lost a couple of thousand troops out of a standing army of over a million in 5 years. If they wanted to invade another country they could do it no problems.

 

[Belnakor]

y. If Indonesia made any movements to suggest invasion, don't be surprised if China launches some "practice military tests" off the coast of Indonesia's islands.

The chinese would protect us? Now i've heard everything.

Basically, the UK, China and the US would have something to say about an Indonesian invasion. One thinks Japan via it's trade links and alliance to the US would move similar also.

The only thing China would have to say would be "we reject the UNs right to be involved in "regional issues""

 

[acker]

If Mushareff was eliminated tommorow in Pakistan our world would be moving faster than we can post on this forum.

 

[dan warna]

Indonesia already has a huge standing army. They don't have the money to buy mines, and even if they did i doubt we would be selling our mines to the Indonesian government somehow. Life and People is cheap in Indonesia, never forget that. They would rather spent troops dying then actually buy something.


Give me a break, they have lost a couple of thousand troops out of a standing army of over a million in 5 years. If they wanted to invade another country they could do it no problems.

the cost of purchasing a mine is far far cheaper than the cost of an invasion and occupation. While life in indonesia may be cheap, Australia won't just surrender to Indonesia and the cost in equipment and material would FAR far outweigh the benifits.

as for selling resources, we are selling massive amounts of resources to other nations, you'd be suprised at who owns what in Australia.

as for the US their budget is is massively in the red after they borrowed tens of billions to maintain an occupation of iraq and afghanistan. the financial trouble currently in the US is predominantly caused by the defence and military budget stretching their economy to breaking point added with ridiculously unaffordable tax cuts.

when bush senior came into power he increased taxes and cut back defence spending, whoever the next president is, unless they want to permanently destroy the US economy will have to massively cut US defence spending and increase taxes as clinton and bush senior did.

 

[Richo83]

From who exactly? PNG airforce?

If Indonesia are doing deals with the PNG airforce, we have little to worry about.

you mean like East Timor?

Yes, an internal war which they tried to quell by violence (with our help). However, ET is not us, and when push came to shove in 1999, Australia dictated the situation. ET shows that Indonesia knows that it has to step carefully when it comes to international military missions.

When was the last time Indonesia participated in military actions that was "stablizing" anything?

Ahh, they've tried to stabilize the borders of Indonesia by keeping dissidents such as Aceh for years now.

 

[Richo83]

The chinese would protect us? Now i've heard everything.

You don't think China has any interests in protecting one of it's major mineral trading nations? And that it doesn't have an interest in keeping middle Pacific nations quiet? Of course it does. All Australia need to say is minerals in danger Indonesia takeover and China would be on the Indonesian coast in no time.

The only thing China would have to say would be "we reject the UNs right to be involved in "regional issues""

Which don't effect them, this done does, Australia is one of China's major trading partners and major mineral trading partners, it needs secure mineral trades to keep it's economy going.

 

[Richo83]

Richo

They are hardly intending on using their airforce to launch a strike on themselves.

Indonesia have for decades now used their military to quell dissident groups, don't think this is any different.

And if they are their are plenty of cheaper jets available than Sukhoi S30's if they were just looking to quell internal seperatist dispute's.

Military equipment isn't always bought with the best rationality, but with Indonesia's size and possible breakup, Indonesia would want something capable to patrol it's borders. Same question could be asked of us, why do we want the F -22?

http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-31572920080124[/URL]

I spoke in a previous post of an unknown threat as seizing power in Indonesia, let's not also forget an ambitious one we do know General Wiranto. This guy as leader in a coalition with the Islamic "Crown and Cresent" party could cause many possible confrontational issues after next years election as well.


http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20080228.H01&irec=0

Indonesia have had military coups for years now, no invasion has happened. I hardly see Indonesia's army invading Australia not resulting in a military response of major powers, Australia could just say ANZUS and UK relations and the US and UK would send something adequate.

 

[Bombermania]

At present I'm not overly worryied about the Indonesians but history has shown that things can change very quickly.

If the Indonesians invaded Australia and it is a big IF, I would image the Americans would respond for one very simple reason.

URANIUM

Would the Americans want a Muslim nation owning one of the largest Uranum mines in the world ripe for export to Pakistan and Iran, I think not.

It's true that Americans mostly don't notice Australia but they mostly know we are on friendly terms therefore if that was to change considering they went to Iraq for upteen reasons (oil this - oil that) I suspect they would respond.

I wouldn't be so dismissive of China responding for our relationship is very strong and again it comes back to Uranium, do the Chinese want a country with one of the worlds largest Uranium supplies behaving or potentially being open to selling it to a range of Countries though out the region.

 

[WA ROO]

You don't think China has any interests in protecting one of it's major mineral trading nations? And that it doesn't have an interest in keeping middle Pacific nations quiet? Of course it does. All Australia need to say is minerals in danger Indonesia takeover and China would be on the Indonesian coast in no time.

Indonesia says minerals cheaper and the only thing China does is send larger ore boats

 

[Bombermania]

Yep, the suggestion that the Chinese will protect us is laughable.

It is, really we need to be able to look after ourselves.

 

[dan warna]

which is the reason we need a suitable detterent.

the idea of a defence is to make an invasion an unacceptable financial loss, and to protect our resources.

the reason guys like the SAS train in counter terrorism is because realistically an enemy would find it of more cost benefit to destabilise our economy, burn a few wheat fields, torch a few power stations, etc.

a realistic invasion would have to ship tens of thousands of troops not only to quell the initial fighting but hold and occupy territory and resources they capture for a sustained period of time.

the cost of invading and holding australia would be in the hundreds of billions.

with a half decent set of gear and ingenious innovative defences as well as well equipped F22s the cost in material lost would be in the billions.

the cost of stationing, equiping and feeding the standing army in a hostile territory, while maintaining Australia's economy so that they can feed on it, would be tremendous.

frankly indonesia doesn't have the capital to mount an invasion, heck they are strugglinig to hold onto aceh, they lost e.timor and w. papua is giving them grief too.

China would probably have the capital and equipment to invade and hold australia, but realistically given we are allowing them investment $$ at every opportunity trade between aus and china enriches BOTH countries, an invasion would tax china's economy, resources and economic boom.

if they do invade chances are we'll blow our gas and oil resources, blast the mine infrastructure and blow our own rail tracks and sabotage our own ports to prevent them using them without a MASSIVE investment of capital.

I think anyone who realistically fears thousands of goosestepping indonesian or chinese troops to be marching down swanston street as part of an occupational force is a paranoid delusional moron.

 

[Contra Mundum]

The best way to achieve that is through a nuclear strike capability.

Your idiosyncratic world view has ceased to be offensive - I now find it quite endearing like a mad old uncle

 

[MrMeaner]

Who do we take out first? My vote is for those good for nothing kiwis.

 

[RUNVS]

Who do we take out first? My vote is for those good for nothing kiwis.

My vote is for Tasmania

 

[Richo83]

Indonesia says minerals cheaper and the only thing China does is send larger ore boats

It would take more than what's available to the Indonesians to first invade, take over and then occupy Australia's mineral deposits then develop a trading route and scheme with China.

By that time I think our US allies would have responded, I repeat the last thing USA wants is a destabilized pacific.

 

[Juddism]

^^ I think the US 36th or carrier wing Atsugi would've wiped Jakarta off the map by then...

 

[1jasonoz]

Who do we take out first? My vote is for those good for nothing kiwis.

we are going to bomb east sydney

 

[1jasonoz]

Indonesia already has a huge standing army. They don't have the money to buy mines, and even if they did i doubt we would be selling our mines to the Indonesian government somehow. Life and People is cheap in Indonesia, never forget that. They would rather spent troops dying then actually buy something.


Give me a break, they have lost a couple of thousand troops out of a standing army of over a million in 5 years. If they wanted to invade another country they could do it no problems.

i have worked extensivly throughout indonesia for close to 20 years. the reason they have such a huge army is their internal political issues; indonesia is riddled with east timors and aceh's wanting to break away from the javenese controlled government.

 

[Still Crowing]

Who do we take out first? My vote is for those good for nothing kiwis.

I agree, shifty eyed sheep fiddlers, can't trust em...can't tell em apart. Tally Ho Boys!!

 

[acker]

It would take more than what's available to the Indonesians to first invade, take over and then occupy Australia's mineral deposits then develop a trading route and scheme with China.

By that time I think our US allies would have responded, I repeat the last thing USA wants is a destabilized pacific.

What if the USA is streched taking care of another issue of concern to them at that time Richo ?

And I can list a myriad of potential ones

Iran blocks straights of Hormuz
North Korea sends a missile into Japan
Multiple category 4 & 5 Hurricanes strike the gulf states.
Civil war breaks out in Panama or terrorists blow up the Panama Canal
Turkey's attack on Iraqi kurds escalate's across the Black Sea nations
Israel does something stupid
House of Saud is overthrown in Arabia
Al-Qaeeda or a similar radical group gain control of 1 or more nuclear missiles in Pakistan or Kazakhstan
After a stocktake of Russias nuclear warheads the discover they are missing 4-5
China attacks a couple of USA military sattelites.

plus many more eg: a corporation shooting down another competitor corporations sattelite or facilities.

 

[dan warna]

What if the USA is streched taking care of another issue of concern to them at that time Richo ?

And I can list a myriad of potential ones

Iran blocks straights of Hormuz
North Korea sends a missile into Japan
Multiple category 4 & 5 Hurricanes strike the gulf states.
Civil war breaks out in Panama or terrorists blow up the Panama Canal
Turkey's attack on Iraqi kurds escalate's across the Black Sea nations
Israel does something stupid
House of Saud is overthrown in Arabia
Al-Qaeeda or a similar radical group gain control of 1 or more nuclear missiles in Pakistan or Kazakhstan
After a stocktake of Russias nuclear warheads the discover they are missing 4-5
China attacks a couple of USA military sattelites.

plus many more eg: a corporation shooting down another competitor corporations sattelite or facilities.

now we have moved past the idiotic concept that indonesia is going march into Aus...

1. Iran still has to sell its oil, the US has continually attacked and attempted to subjugate iran, however the developing democracy post khomeni was pretty much put down by US adventurism in iraq. the slow movement to a more liberal government and a backlash against the post shah government was supressed when the US moved in next door and the conservatives got their excuse to sieze power again. as mad as Amharamalamadingdong is, he is smart enough to play the game to ensure the petro dollars still flow. And frankly every time the US threatens him, the stronger his domestic position becomes.

2. North Korea's economy is hanging on by a thread, they could fight a short tactical war, but any strategic long term fighting capacity will destroy the country. They depend on welfare to keep ticking along. It is a hell state that 1984 the book describes.

3. anything is possible, and katrina showed us that

4. the panama cannal already can't handle the top end of shipping.

5. well the fact that turkey is killing kurds just goes to show you the excuse of invading iraq to protect the kurds is balony and always was, the west doesn't give, and never have given a rats about the kurds.

6. the house of saud has been propped up by western military, petro dollars and the US for the past 30 or 40 years, any attempt to democratise the country has been crushed, and the resistance and opposition to the house of saud has radicalised in the past decade and a half, another mess the US contributed to. if the house of saud falls, then its an internal issue, but should have been headed off 2 decades ago with democracy. Heck if the US hadn't supported the massacre of democracy movement in the philipines during the marcos years, the past few presidents would have been in a much stronger position.

7. Well the west again made the pragmatic decision to support the dictator mushareff ahead of liberal democrats, and now are wearing the consequences of an increasing radicalised opposition. musshareff will fall, and the vacuum created, and the vacuum should have been picked up by the democracy movement and the judiciary, which won't be because the west supported the destruction of these institutions.

8. the russians have no idea

9. if the US military satellites encroach chinese airspace, good on them for vapourising the satellites, heck the russians have been knocking off illegal US spyplanes for ages.

 

[acker]

I would not discount the Indonesians taking the opportunity if they needed to still trying to annex Northern Australia "dan"

The time we need these aircraft is more than likely going to be "if" multiple de-stabilising events occur across the globe

If they at the same stage their internal politics are in turmoil eg: coup, a natural disaster like a "Krakatoa" type eruption or rising sea levels threatens their population, or a loose cannon ex military leader like Wiranto finds his way to office.

Then through opportunity or survival neccesity Indonesia may strike.

At such a time of unstability they may also commit an air-strike for economic reasons such as if they feel they are locked in a military hardware race with us and the cost is hurting them, in the time they do have air superiority they may feel it is worth while striking our radar/survielence facilities so our money gets tied up and cant buy new aircraft.

I think Indonesia is still a threat but I think they will only launch a strike if other world events are occuring at the same time.

Problem is that could be any time. As we found out in World War 2 when we thought the pom's would save us.

 

[dan warna]

well then if we are going to get a decent jet its not going to be the superhornets or the JSF...

it should be the raptor.

same with the heaps of rubbish the liberals left us with under their decade of governance with defence.

which wasn't that much worse than a decade of labor governance in defence.

fitzgibbon sounds better (whether he follows through is another issue) than any defence minister we've had in 25 years IMO.

 

[acker]

well then if we are going to get a decent jet its not going to be the superhornets or the JSF...

it should be the raptor.

same with the heaps of rubbish the liberals left us with under their decade of governance with defense.

which wasn't that much worse than a decade of labor governance in defense.

fitzgibbon sounds better (whether he follows through is another issue) than any defense minister we've had in 25 years IMO.

Good point if I got in their on a knee jerk tomorrow I might threaten to buy the stealthy Sukhoi SU-47's.

As defense ministers go from an outsider looking in I think the only really bad weak one we have had of note was probably Robert Hill, who really tried to justifying the impossible with that Helicopter reequip that was never on, the tanks that were to heavy for our roads and bridges, and the ship based helicopters that were not capable of landing on our ships.

Although I was suspicious of Kim Beasley due to the early problems getting the Collins class submarines up and running, plus the deadline blowout in the over horizon radar system "Jorn" south of Longreach getting up and running. Kim wanted to go local, but unfortunately that was not always in the countries best interest.

Testimony to how big a waste of money "Jorn" is maybe is this 3 billion dollar investment in refitting 737's to become a full on airborne early warning system. Land based "Jorn" around Longreach and 200 kilometres south around Jundah has become a big easy target to take out if we do loose air superiority to our northern neighbour.

Kim's dreaming whilst having a go was bad enough, Hill was totally off with the pixies. Nelson actualy has some cred, Fitzgibon is a bit like Judd hitting the park and may be a future man Rudd just needs to keep an eye on in an ambition with talent sense of the word.

Between the lines I read the U.S secretary of defence Robert Gates has taken a bit of a shine to him

 

[Richo83]

What if the USA is streched taking care of another issue of concern to them at that time Richo ?

What, like the Iraq war, the war they are just about to pull out of? Like their international troops in Japan and Germany which they are withdrawing from? Yes, the US will be very stretched soon.

Iran blocks straights of Hormuz

Who cares? This is the pacific, not the ME we're talking about.

North Korea sends a missile into Japan

I'd like to see them try, anyway, it's irrelevant to this topic. It will never happen anyway.

Multiple category 4 & 5 Hurricanes strike the gulf states.

Oh, so you're relying on the weather for your plan to work now? You just got worse than paranoid. Even so, it doesn't stop the Us from sending troops.

Civil war breaks out in Panama or terrorists blow up the Panama Canal

Terrorists would need a lot of explosives to blow up the Panama. Anyway, most of US trade crosses the pacific so it's irrelevant and would hardly stop a US assault. And anyway, it's unlikely, the Panama Canal has never really been threatened destruction (it's still standing for one) so that scenario is unrealistic.

Turkey's attack on Iraqi kurds escalate's across the Black Sea nations

Why would it? This is a battle with Kurds. Nations without Kurdish populations wouldn't bother.
Israel does something stupid

House of Saud is overthrown in Arabia

Something that would actually hurt the chances of Islamist forces forming, since SA is the heartland of Islamist forces and the SA government is one of their biggest backers.

Al-Qaeeda or a similar radical group gain control of 1 or more nuclear missiles in Pakistan or Kazakhstan

After a stocktake of Russias nuclear warheads the discover they are missing 4-5

Firstly, the Indonesian gov has little if any links with AQ. Secondly, Russia is putting more security into the protection of it's nukes, especially as it doesn't want nukes falling into Islamist hands with ties to Chechen rebels. Thirdly, Russia are yet to lose any nukes.

Fourthly, any nation who uses nukes on Australia is finished, America would, 100% surely launch a military response if Indonesia nuked Australia. It would be suicide for Jakarta.

China attacks a couple of USA military sattelites.

plus many more eg: a corporation shooting down another competitor corporations sattelite or facilities.

Why would they be stupid to do that? Anyway the US can still fight with a few of it's satellites down.

You're clutching at straws acker. Just admit it, you want to paint Indonesia, a mainly Muslim country as some threat to support your theory that Islam threatens Australia.