Society/Culture Australian Property Prices to Crash?

[peetoo]

The supply side of housing is in a world of trouble:

Industry hit by faltering energy transition

Boral is having to regularly wind back production when power prices spike, showing the toll that Australia’s stumbling energy transition is taking on manufacturing.

www.afr.com

'The stuttering energy transition is forcing big industrial companies like Boral to temporarily shut down cement production to avoid peak electricity prices, putting at risk the nation’s build-out of housing and infrastructure stock.

Boral’s electricity price rose by 54 per cent in the 12 months to the second half of last year, and have not retreated, counter to expectations.

He said Boral had about 5500 “blue collar” workers who were being told to stand aside and do nothing for 30 minutes at a time when power prices made it too expensive to operate.'

“At a certain price during the day, when the price goes up [to] a certain level, our manufacturing stops because we’ve worked out economically it’s actually better to have thousands of people waiting idle for the prices to come down then actually do the work,” he said.

“That’s a real issue we are facing every single day on 300 manufacturing sites across the country.'

So our productivity and competitiveness as a nation is weighed down by speculation in property and power, our gifts to the future from the neo cons.

 

[peetoo]

A few things.

Continual price growth for housing isn’t confined to the last 10-15 years, it goes back a lot longer than that.

I will nail my colours to the mast and say that the median prices wont be at those levels.

But what i think will happen and i see it in most suburbs of Melbourne, is the size of the land the house sits, is shrinking, density is rising, so whilst median house prices may stay the same, the cost per sq metre will increase And the number of dwellings will increase.

In nearly every street of my suburb, houses are getting knocked down with two or more built in their place, by completion both houses are selling for the same price as the single dwelling recently sold for.

Living in London which has a median of just over half a million pounds, doesn’t sound vey expensive, but the size of these places is tiny, the land is tiny and what you can get for that money gradually becomes less and less,

For as long as population increases, unless there’s government intervention, house prices will too.

Early on posting actual sale price of our house rose six fold in eleven years 70s 80s

 

[HirdyLannister]

Property prices: Whatever happened to forecasts of 20 per cent falls?

amp.smh.com.au

 

[HirdyLannister]

House prices are not dropping any time soon!

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/rapid-rate-of-rental-disaster-engulfing-australia/news-story/bc935819224616a8aa306a6c3d480ba1

 

[baris]

House prices are not dropping any time soon!

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/rapid-rate-of-rental-disaster-engulfing-australia/news-story/bc935819224616a8aa306a6c3d480ba1

They have definitely gone up around my area.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

People need to realize its going to take more than 10 years to provide enough development to fix the housing crisis. And even then developers will not saturate the market with high density housing unless the government provides incentives. Labor learned this the hard way with neg gearing policy.

Both major parties want growth and will both advocate strong immigration.

Despite the hope and perhaps naivety housing prices will not crash without a major economic recession.

Ive followed the market for 25 years and i cannot possibly purchase my property from scratch. What happens is it takes an increasingly higher income to buy less land. So lower income earners will be pushed out. Now its middle income earners.

Back in 2000, I could have bought a property in the Adelaide Hills overlooking the city for $290k, rented it, paid off by 2015 now its $1.2 millon.

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Seeing more Listing's than ever for the past decade.
Inverloch had maybe 6 properties for sale in the last 3 years .
They are now listing 4 per week

 

[peetoo]

People need to realize its going to take more than 10 years to provide enough development to fix the housing crisis. And even then developers will not saturate the market with high density housing unless the government provides incentives. Labor learned this the hard way with neg gearing policy.

Both major parties want growth and will both advocate strong immigration.

Despite the hope and perhaps naivety housing prices will not crash without a major economic recession.

Ive followed the market for 25 years and i cannot possibly purchase my property from scratch. What happens is it takes an increasingly higher income to buy less land. So lower income earners will be pushed out. Now its middle income earners.

Back in 2000, I could have bought a property in the Adelaide Hills overlooking the city for $290k, rented it, paid off by 2015 now its $1.2 millon.

Yet there are more unoccupied bedrooms than people looking for one

 

[Purple7x08_24]

Yet there are more unoccupied bedrooms than people looking for one

I believe the government needs to address this with more haste.

Big Incentives for boarding rooms. Severely restrict AirBnb.

 

[peetoo]

I believe the government needs to address this with more haste.

Big Incentives for boarding rooms. Severely restrict AirBnb.

Not absolute, but the balance needs to shift

 

[Purple7x08_24]

Not absolute, but the balance needs to shift

I think about the foreign investors who deliberately leave properties vacant. Surely it would cost less to give them some sort of financial incentive than to spend billions on development projects which will take years to address the situation anyway.

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

I'm interested to know what immigrants are doing when they roll into Australia. Like, it's expensive to buy a place and it's hard as hell to secure a rental, so are they coming in flush with cash and making it happen or is it something else?

Does anyone have any ideas about this?

 

[peetoo]

I don’t think you get immigrants with $50 only any more. The govt cost are way more than that

 

[barreness]

I'm interested to know what immigrants are doing when they roll into Australia. Like, it's expensive to buy a place and it's hard as hell to secure a rental, so are they coming in flush with cash and making it happen or is it something else?

Does anyone have any ideas about this?

Been dating a Burmese woman of late. Started with backpackers and retail work, then whatever shitty share house they can manage, sometimes helped by the diaspora. Came on a student visa, so was studying as well. This was pre covid though, has a good permanent position now but whenever the lease ends stresses for weeks and ends up in a shared apartment bedroom for $300 minimum.

 

[Cuzz09]

Lot of them share houses. like sleep in shifts even

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[greyhound punter]

Good to see the housing bulls in fine fettle.

A cursory glance across at NZ sees many banks offering mortage products at 7.5%, even 8%.

Double figure interest rates closer than ever....wowee boy oh boy.

It couldn't happen here could it? Could it?

 

[greyhound punter]

People need to realize its going to take more than 10 years to provide enough development to fix the housing crisis. And even then developers will not saturate the market with high density housing unless the government provides incentives. Labor learned this the hard way with neg gearing policy.

Both major parties want growth and will both advocate strong immigration.

Despite the hope and perhaps naivety housing prices will not crash without a major economic recession.

Ive followed the market for 25 years and i cannot possibly purchase my property from scratch. What happens is it takes an increasingly higher income to buy less land. So lower income earners will be pushed out. Now its middle income earners.

Back in 2000, I could have bought a property in the Adelaide Hills overlooking the city for $290k, rented it, paid off by 2015 now its $1.2 millon.

The issue will be what happens if Australia's economy heads into recession and inflation stays high? Stagflation if you will.

Ireland had a booming economy in the early 00s, immigration through the roof....it all fell off a cliff once the economy turned.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[HirdyLannister]

Good to see the housing bulls in fine fettle.

A cursory glance across at NZ sees many banks offering mortage products at 7.5%, even 8%.

Double figure interest rates closer than ever....wowee boy oh boy.

It couldn't happen here could it? Could it?

You do realise if the market crashes the housing bulls will expand their portfolios.

 

[Frank Grimes]

You do realise if the market crashes the housing bulls will expand their portfolios.

From what we seen in the US during the 2008 financial crisis this is true.

The over extended owner occupiers were selling and cashed up investors (especially institutional investment companies) were purchasing as many as possible at their low prices.

 

[FIGJAM]

Good to see the housing bulls in fine fettle.

Who are being "bulls" exactly?

Citing evidence that there were recent house price falls in the broader market in 2022 and that they are now trending upwards again is not being bullish. It's a statement of fact.

Yes, we're in a perelous position with regards to high levels of housing debt servicing ratios, but we've got plenty of contrasting issues with regards to low (and barely increasing) supply and rapidly rebounding immigration.

I know you're barracking for a GFC-esque crash in Australia that is comparable with that seen in the US in 2008, but it's fair to state that that is unlikely and it doesn't take a "bull" to hold this opinion.

 

[greyhound punter]

Who are being "bulls" exactly?

Citing evidence that there were recent house price falls in the broader market in 2022 and that they are now trending upwards again is not being bullish. It's a statement of fact.

Yes, we're in a perelous position with regards to high levels of housing debt servicing ratios, but we've got plenty of contrasting issues with regards to low (and barely increasing) supply and rapidly rebounding immigration.

I know you're barracking for a GFC-esque crash in Australia that is comparable with that seen in the US in 2008, but it's fair to state that that is unlikely and it doesn't take a "bull" to hold this opinion.

Fair points indeed.

From a technical chartists point of view, the first leg down in any uptrend rarely, if ever, will be the one that breaks a market's back.

I remain bearish housing. Barracking is a fair call.

 

[peetoo]

You do realise if the market crashes the housing bulls will expand their portfolios.

Like the smartarses who bought cbd during lockdowns…..and whinged ever since

Corporate begging if the public purse is an epidemic itself

 

[greyhound punter]

Interest rate rises coming in 1...2......3

 

[peetoo]

Rates now biting…or is it just more property on the market?

Get ready for the "real estate market reset"

Australia’s combined final capital city auction rate collapsed to its lowest level this year last weekend, with just 58% of homes taken to auction clearing. The result points to a sharp slowing in value growth, as illustrated in the chart below: Sydney’s final clearance rate fell 5.5 percentage...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

 

[HirdyLannister]

Rates now biting…or is it just more property on the market?

Get ready for the "real estate market reset"

Australia’s combined final capital city auction rate collapsed to its lowest level this year last weekend, with just 58% of homes taken to auction clearing. The result points to a sharp slowing in value growth, as illustrated in the chart below: Sydney’s final clearance rate fell 5.5 percentage...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

Looking forward to it, will be able to buy my 4th house!!!