Society/Culture Australian Property Prices to Crash?

[CatToTheFuture]

People need to realize its going to take more than 10 years to provide enough development to fix the housing crisis. And even then developers will not saturate the market with high density housing unless the government provides incentives. Labor learned this the hard way with neg gearing policy.

Both major parties want growth and will both advocate strong immigration.

Despite the hope and perhaps naivety housing prices will not crash without a major economic recession.

Ive followed the market for 25 years and i cannot possibly purchase my property from scratch. What happens is it takes an increasingly higher income to buy less land. So lower income earners will be pushed out. Now its middle income earners.

Back in 2000, I could have bought a property in the Adelaide Hills overlooking the city for $290k, rented it, paid off by 2015 now its $1.2 millon.

The hockey stick in Adelaide is just nuts. My house earned more than I did last year and I have a great job.

How did we so thoroughly destroy this country?

 

[Purple7x08_24]

The hockey stick in Adelaide is just nuts. My house earned more than I did last year and I have a great job.

How did we so thoroughly destroy this country?

RN For anyone living with family I would recommend saving hard for a minimum deposit to speed things up and buy the most affordable property anywhere with stability to Max borrowing potential with land and future development potential.

4% of 500k is 20k. You can't beat saving against minimal growth

 

[greyhound punter]

RN For anyone living with family I would recommend saving hard for a minimum deposit to speed things up and buy the most affordable property anywhere with stability to Max borrowing potential with land and future development potential.

4% of 500k is 20k. You can't beat saving against minimal growth

Madness to even consider buying at the top of one of the biggest housing bubbles of all time.

Markets are forward looking. The current prices are because the masses are betting on the gov cutting interest rates to rock bottom again, as they have done since 2000.

The issue at the moment is inflation. We are undergoing a systemic change from a low inflation environment to a high inflation environment. It is nothing new.

Once the market realizes that those interest rate cuts aren't coming......well, investors will wish their mothers never met their fathers.

Every financial crisis has, at heart, the same cause. People look at what has happened over the recent past, and assume that it will keep happening into the future, even while the ground is shifting beneath their feet.

 

[Number37]

Every financial crisis has, at heart, the same cause. People look at what has happened over the recent past, and assume that it will keep happening into the future, even while the ground is shifting beneath their feet.

The GFC was caused by an inverted credit pyramid.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

Madness to even consider buying at the top of one of the biggest housing bubbles of all time.

Markets are forward looking. The current prices are because the masses are betting on the gov cutting interest rates to rock bottom again, as they have done since 2000.

The issue at the moment is inflation. We are undergoing a systemic change from a low inflation environment to a high inflation environment. It is nothing new.

Once the market realizes that those interest rate cuts aren't coming......well, investors will wish their mothers never met their fathers.

Every financial crisis has, at heart, the same cause. People look at what has happened over the recent past, and assume that it will keep happening into the future, even while the ground is shifting beneath their feet.

You're forgetting demand and that both governments are pro growth. There will be investors snapping up properties to cash in on the rental demand.

I've been hearing your argument since 2000. Property has always remained resilient.

 

[greyhound punter]

You're forgetting demand and that both governments are pro growth. There will be investors snapping up properties to cash in on the rental demand.

I've been hearing your argument since 2000. Property has always remained resilient.

As I said, people assuming the past will continue into the future is at the heart of every financial crisis.

Before the stock market crash of 1987, the largest single day fall was 10%. The crash that day in 1987 was 23%. Using the past to predict the future eventually leads to ruin.

You only need one black swan to disprove the idea that all swans were white.

Despite the current rental demands, many investment properties are yielding less than savings accounts. It is a clear signal of a bubble and an overvalued market.

Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't. Just needs to happen once.

 

[greyhound punter]

The GFC was caused by an inverted credit pyramid.

The gfc was called by poor risk management. The assumption was made that American property would never fall. Until it did.

 

[greyhound punter]

You're forgetting demand and that both governments are pro growth. There will be investors snapping up properties to cash in on the rental demand.

I've been hearing your argument since 2000. Property has always remained resilient.

I mean, why hasn't any government ever thought of this before during any property bubble and subsequent bust in history?

I'm not forgetting anything. The lessons of history are there for all of you want to see them. Of course, if you have leveraged to the hilt to get that 2.5% yield, the lessons of history will fall silent.

 

[yodellinhank]

I mean, why hasn't any government ever thought of this before during any property bubble and subsequent bust in history?

I'm not forgetting anything. The lessons of history are there for all of you want to see them. Of course, if you have leveraged to the hilt to get that 2.5% yield, the lessons of history will fall silent.

You keep looking back on history and assume the past will continue.

 

[greyhound punter]

You keep looking back on history and assume the past will continue.

How so?

 

[Purple7x08_24]

You keep looking back on history and assume the past will continue.

Not at all. I'm looking at the situation.

High Demand, Low vacancy rates, both governments advocate growth, we have an ageing population which means we need strong migration.

Capital cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and also Newcastle might see people sell their homes as they're already doing but someone, with more money will buy it.

The housing market will not crash in this situation.

 

[peetoo]

Madness to even consider buying at the top of one of the biggest housing bubbles of all time.

Markets are forward looking. The current prices are because the masses are betting on the gov cutting interest rates to rock bottom again, as they have done since 2000.

The issue at the moment is inflation. We are undergoing a systemic change from a low inflation environment to a high inflation environment. It is nothing new.

Once the market realizes that those interest rate cuts aren't coming......well, investors will wish their mothers never met their fathers.

Every financial crisis has, at heart, the same cause. People look at what has happened over the recent past, and assume that it will keep happening into the future, even while the ground is shifting beneath their feet.

Sounds great, but this prediction is probably 2 decades old. It’s time we stopped using the bubble term. If anything the direction is anti bubble

 

[peetoo]

As I said, people assuming the past will continue into the future is at the heart of every financial crisis.

Before the stock market crash of 1987, the largest single day fall was 10%. The crash that day in 1987 was 23%. Using the past to predict the future eventually leads to ruin.

You only need one black swan to disprove the idea that all swans were white.

Despite the current rental demands, many investment properties are yielding less than savings accounts. It is a clear signal of a bubble and an overvalued market.

Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't. Just needs to happen once.

The best time to retire if you had investments was the early eighties. It’s been generally been on and up

 

[Frank Grimes]

Madness to even consider buying at the top of one of the biggest housing bubbles of all time.

Markets are forward looking. The current prices are because the masses are betting on the gov cutting interest rates to rock bottom again, as they have done since 2000.

The issue at the moment is inflation. We are undergoing a systemic change from a low inflation environment to a high inflation environment. It is nothing new.

Once the market realizes that those interest rate cuts aren't coming......well, investors will wish their mothers never met their fathers.

Every financial crisis has, at heart, the same cause. People look at what has happened over the recent past, and assume that it will keep happening into the future, even while the ground is shifting beneath their feet.

There is a possibility you are right this time. A broken clock is always right twice a day after all. But I have been hearing "the market is about to crash" or the "bubble is going to pop" for the last 20 years.

One thing I learned about the market is nobody can reliably predict it.

 

[Frank Grimes]

The GFC was caused by an inverted credit pyramid.

From America's point of view the GFC just allowed cashed up investors ( especially institutional ones such as Blackstone) to buy property on the cheap.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

RN For anyone living with family I would recommend saving hard for a minimum deposit to speed things up and buy the most affordable property anywhere with stability to Max borrowing potential with land and future development potential.

4% of 500k is 20k. You can't beat saving against minimal growth

My recommendation is try finding somewhere else to live your life

 

[Purple7x08_24]

My recommendation is try finding somewhere else to live your life

I'm lost on your point.

 

[peetoo]

As I said, people assuming the past will continue into the future is at the heart of every financial crisis.

Before the stock market crash of 1987, the largest single day fall was 10%. The crash that day in 1987 was 23%. Using the past to predict the future eventually leads to ruin.

You only need one black swan to disprove the idea that all swans were white.

Despite the current rental demands, many investment properties are yielding less than savings accounts. It is a clear signal of a bubble and an overvalued market.

Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't. Just needs to happen once.

My house went up in value 6x in 11 years in the eighties. Between actual sales. Lived there 30 years and it’s probably gone up 10x in that time.
Of course there’s a lot more noughts on the end of the price now
Market is warm not red hot

 

[barreness]

Not at all. I'm looking at the situation.

High Demand, Low vacancy rates, both governments advocate growth, we have an ageing population which means we need strong migration.

Capital cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and also Newcastle might see people sell their homes as they're already doing but someone, with more money will buy it.

The housing market will not crash in this situation.

Yes unfortunately. Would need to see rents fall(as if), or at least stabilise and get inflated down, before you can even entertain dreams of a housing crash. Negative gearing and CGT discount(the biggie imo) lost an opposition a drovers dog election, nothing is drastically changing here or in immigration

Bird flu or nuclear war, then we'll start talking

 

[Gavin Excell]

My house went up in value 6x in 11 years in the eighties. Between actual sales. Lived there 30 years and it’s probably gone up 10x in that time.
Of course there’s a lot more noughts on the end of the price now
Market is warm not red hot

Reality is you really only have 2 options
Rent or buy.

 

[greyhound punter]

Not at all. I'm looking at the situation.

High Demand, Low vacancy rates, both governments advocate growth, we have an ageing population which means we need strong migration.

Capital cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and also Newcastle might see people sell their homes as they're already doing but someone, with more money will buy it.

The housing market will not crash in this situation.

My argument is that the Australian housing market is vulnerable to a black swan event. I have no doubt the unprecedented immigration rate we have experienced is solely to prop up the housing market.

This should tell you how vulnerable the market is.

New arrivals will break for the border when the economy tanks.

Yes unfortunately. Would need to see rents fall(as if), or at least stabilise and get inflated down, before you can even entertain dreams of a housing crash. Negative gearing and CGT discount(the biggie imo) lost an opposition a drovers dog election, nothing is drastically changing here or in immigration

Bird flu or nuclear war, then we'll start talking

Higher interest rates will crash the market.

People still think we are going back to 0.1

 

[peetoo]

My argument is that the Australian housing market is vulnerable to a black swan event. I have no doubt the unprecedented immigration rate we have experienced is solely to prop up the housing market.

This should tell you how vulnerable the market is.

New arrivals will break for the border when the economy tanks.


Higher interest rates will crash the market.

People still think we are going back to 0.1

Prices must have crashed in lockdowns then?

 

[darcytiger]

My argument is that the Australian housing market is vulnerable to a black swan event. I have no doubt the unprecedented immigration rate we have experienced is solely to prop up the housing market.

This should tell you how vulnerable the market is.

New arrivals will break for the border when the economy tanks.


Higher interest rates will crash the market.

People still think we are going back to 0.1

How privileged we are to be in your presence nostrodamus.

 

[greyhound punter]

How privileged we are to be in your presence nostrodamus.

It is simple maths mate.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

Prices must have crashed in lockdowns then?

100s of 1,000s returned home to Australia during this period.