Trade Requested Bailey Smith

[THE_GUN]

Not sure he would get to the cats in the ND.

Cats would be happy to keep their first round pick and try to collect Smith via the PSD. Would help there rebuild on the run. Either way it’s a risk

No chance he gets to the cats in the PSD

only option via draft is november draft

 

[Libbaaaa]

Would the Dogs accept F1 alone?

I know the Cats would be reluctant to give it up, but if the Dogs expect Geelong to fall next season, I wonder if they'd be willing to gamble/death-ride that it's a top ten pick - which would be close to doing the business on its own.

I'd probably take it but I can understand the Dogs not wanting to strengthen Geelong and death ride a pick while having nothing come back the other way in the meantime.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Would love this deal to get done early because the back forth posturing from all sides is going to be nauseating. Cats camp wanting him for nothing as he is OOC and done a knee while Dogs camp wanting two good 1st round picks.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I'd probably take it but I can understand the Dogs not wanting to strengthen Geelong and death ride a pick while having nothing come back the other way in the meantime.

Man, there's talk of Kangas trying to do their future 1st for pick 9. This would be a horrible deal, worse than 15 straight up, basically regardless of where Geelong finish next year.

 

[STPer18]

Would love this deal to get done early because the back forth posturing from all sides is going to be nauseating. Cats camp wanting him for nothing as he is OOC and done a knee while Dogs camp wanting two good 1st round picks.

If you believe in the AFL holding certain trades back until deadline for the 'drama' then there's nothing surer than this one being one of those.

 

[Pencil case]

15 and a future 2nd id say with some other meaningless late pick swaps in the dogs favour.

I think this trade is going to involve another club

 

[Claythesmiths]

You'll deliberately harm yourselves by losing Smith for nothing, just to spite Geelong.

Makes enormous sense to me.

With any player who is out of contract, you either take what's offered, or lose them for free. But it's all about where the line is drawn, isn't it?

If we think Smith is worth Pick 10, and Geelong offer pick 40, do we accept, even if the alternative is getting nothing? Probably not, because you can't let another team take advantage of you like that. What about Pick 30? Pick 20? Pick 15? The line is always drawn somewhere. If you think the other club is offering unders and taking advantage, you must reject the offer and demand more compensation otherwise you will never receive fair value for your departing players.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

You'll deliberately harm yourselves by losing Smith for nothing, just to spite Geelong.

Makes enormous sense to me.

Geelong wouldn't be front of mind here, hard as that would be for level headed Cats supporters to believe.

More returning serve to Baz, actually.

...and protecting ourselves against future "unders".

 

[TiAn_]

What's it matter where the pick ends up we will still have access to the same players.

Because in real terms the pick would only give us access to the 19th or 20th ranked player in the entire draft pool. That’s its actual value.

 

[Robroy22]

You'll deliberately harm yourselves by losing Smith for nothing, just to spite Geelong.

Makes enormous sense to me.

(insert the name Ollie Henry, Jeremy Cameron)

Haven't we heard this comment before, funny how it always seems to be Geelong on the other end of the stick???

 

[STPer18]

(insert the name Ollie Henry, Jeremy Cameron)

Haven't we heard this comment before, funny how it always seems to be Geelong on the other end of the stick???

Oi Vai....

But Geelong gave THREE FIRST ROUND PICKS for Cameron, or so I've heard.

 

[MisterMarcus]

(insert the name Ollie Henry, Jeremy Cameron)

Haven't we heard this comment before, funny how it always seems to be Geelong on the other end of the stick???

Oi Vai....

It reminds me a lot of Henry.

More than a few Pies supporters were huffing and puffing about "Pick 7 or we'll send him to the draft!" and in the end Collingwood accepted Pick 25.

If a player is out of contract and determined to leave, their existing club is in a weak position. That's not some nuffie Geelong conspiracy, that's just the facts.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

With any player who is out of contract, you either take what's offered, or lose them for free. But it's all about where the line is drawn, isn't it?

If we think Smith is worth Pick 10, and Geelong offer pick 40, do we accept, even if the alternative is getting nothing? Probably not, because you can't let another team take advantage of you like that. What about Pick 30? Pick 20? Pick 15? The line is always drawn somewhere. If you think the other club is offering unders and taking advantage, you must reject the offer and demand more compensation otherwise you will never receive fair value for your departing players.

Geelong's idea of "fair value" is whatever they feel like offering.

#catsentitlement

 

[MisterMarcus]

With any player who is out of contract, you either take what's offered, or lose them for free. But it's all about where the line is drawn, isn't it?

If we think Smith is worth Pick 10, and Geelong offer pick 40, do we accept, even if the alternative is getting nothing? Probably not, because you can't let another team take advantage of you like that. What about Pick 30? Pick 20? Pick 15? The line is always drawn somewhere. If you think the other club is offering unders and taking advantage, you must reject the offer and demand more compensation otherwise you will never receive fair value for your departing players.

Geelong aren't offering "Pick 40" or "Pick 30" or even "Pick 20" so it's a moot point.

The majority of Cats fans are proposing Pick 15 + a future second. It would unquestionably be unders for a fully fit and firing Smith under contract. It might even be unders for an uncontracted out-the-door Smith coming off an ACL. But to argue it's some sort of insulting 'nothing' pick is a bit silly.

 

[Mofra]

You'll deliberately harm yourselves by losing Smith for nothing, just to spite Geelong.

Makes enormous sense to me.

Not if we save ourselves from unders-trades in future years.
And we're strengthening a Prelim-quality side with Baz. Richmond have the picks/cap space to get him in.

It's all moot - players walking is rare and in this case I suspect a deal gets done late as I'm guessing a third party gets involved.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

Geelong aren't offering "Pick 40" or "Pick 30" or even "Pick 20" so it's a moot point.

The majority of Cats fans are proposing Pick 15 + a future second. It would unquestionably be unders for a fully fit and firing Smith under contract. It might even be unders for an uncontracted out-the-door Smith coming off an ACL. But to argue it's some sort of insulting 'nothing' pick is a bit silly.

#15 will be #20 on draft night, so yeah, "Pick 20" is the offer.

 

[Libbaaaa]

It reminds me a lot of Henry.

More than a few Pies supporters were huffing and puffing about "Pick 7 or we'll send him to the draft!" and in the end Collingwood accepted Pick 25.

If a player is out of contract and determined to leave, their existing club is in a weak position. That's not some nuffie Geelong conspiracy, that's just the facts.

It does weaken the existing club, but comparing Henry to Smith (even coming off an ACL) is hardly like for like in terms of player value. Even Bruhn went for pick 18, and again post-ACL Smith is still a more valuable asset than he was.

 

[MisterMarcus]

#15 will be #20 on draft night, so yeah, "Pick 20" is the offer.

Plus a F2.

So even if you want to play the old "Push Out The Offered Pick As Much As Possible To Look Worse" game, it's still more than 'Pick 20'

 

[threenewpadlocks]

You'll deliberately harm yourselves by losing Smith for nothing, just to spite Geelong.

Makes enormous sense to me.

It's not to spite Geelong, It's simple logical game theory - you have to reject trades and sincerely let players go through the pre-season draft over a repeated basis across all trades, otherwise the other club will know that they will bend over and they won't be the first team to give and offer more as part of negotiations. If they don't think that you would ever let them go through the PSD, they can offer as little as possible.

Just using numerical values, if they're offering 6 and they may upgrade to 8, it's equivalent value to let every fourth player walk to the PSD (for a total value of 3*8) than it is just to accept an offer of 6 every time (4*6). This is no different with Smith.

This isn't a matter of being acrimonious, it's a matter of setting a principle to both the current and all future trades that the Dogs are happy to send players to PSD, in order to maximise trade return in the long run.

 

[sydney_gws]

What will end up a live pick 19-20 just isn’t close to enough for Smith. He’s proven he’s worth significantly more than that.

The Cats having themselves drafted a vanilla low ceiling mid in Jhye Clark at pick 8 just a couple of years ago would fully appreciate the bird in the hand benefit with an established gun like Smith over speculative late first round draft picks.

Has the potential to end up a bit of a mess if the Cats are silly about it.

Would the Bulldogs consider a Smith for Clarke swap in the unlikely event Jyhe Clarke thinks a move away from Geelong would help him.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

Plus a F2.

So even if you want to play the old "Push Out The Offered Pick As Much As Possible To Look Worse" game, it's still more than 'Pick 20'

Would Geelong take that today if Smith was their player?

Looking for a level headed answer here...

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think this trade is going to involve another club

Thats possible thats what unlocked the henry trade and this might be similar re the problem and solution (3 club deal).

 

[Pencil case]

With any player who is out of contract, you either take what's offered, or lose them for free. But it's all about where the line is drawn, isn't it?

If we think Smith is worth Pick 10, and Geelong offer pick 40, do we accept, even if the alternative is getting nothing? Probably not, because you can't let another team take advantage of you like that. What about Pick 30? Pick 20? Pick 15? The line is always drawn somewhere. If you think the other club is offering unders and taking advantage, you must reject the offer and demand more compensation otherwise you will never receive fair value for your departing players.

I think the line is a good second and pick 15

 

[Pure_Ownage]

It's not to spite Geelong, It's simple logical game theory - you have to reject trades and sincerely let players go through the pre-season draft over a repeated basis across all trades, otherwise the other club will know that they will bend over and they won't be the first team to give and offer more as part of negotiations. If they don't think that you would ever let them go through the PSD, they can offer as little as possible.

Just using numerical values, if they're offering 6 and they may upgrade to 8, it's equivalent value to let every fourth player walk to the PSD (for a total value of 3*8) than it is just to accept an offer of 6 every time (4*6). This is no different with Smith.

This isn't a matter of being acrimonious, it's a matter of setting a principle to both the current and all future trades that the Dogs are happy to send players to PSD, in order to maximise trade return in the long run.

I get that and i would have no problem if the bulldogs did it but past history says this happens very rarely so its not likely now.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Would Geelong take that today if Smith was their player?

Looking for a level headed answer here...

If he was uncontracted and already had both feet out the door, we wouldn't have a lot of choice.

I doubt we'd LIKE it......but we may well have to take it.

Just speaking personally as a supporter, I'd certainly prefer getting the "80c in the dollar" if it had to be that, than to get absolutely nothing.