Speculation Bailey Smith

[Hamingja]

Yeah, fully acknowledge I am way more excited about this trade than most

If we retain our F1, I would say the contract we pay Smith carries a significant more risk than the actual trade pieces IMO.

I'm not huge on the Smith risk but as long as our F1 stays out of the deal, I would understand the club taking the risk.

 

[Mofra]

When has that worked? In like the entire history of the League?

Luke Ball? Didn’t he end up where he wanted to go anyway?

If a player wants to go somewhere, get what you can. There is not much you can do.

Nick Stevens, Jade Rawlings

 

[Kobe Gryant]

If we retain our F1, I would say the contract we pay Smith carries a significant more risk than the actual trade pieces IMO.

I'm not huge on the Smith risk but as long as our F1 stays out of the deal, I would understand the club taking the risk.

If it's just the one first round pick I really can't see the risk personally.

Smith is turning 24 in December and a consummate professional. Would have the best part of a decade left if he keeps his head on straight.

We're likely picking in the late teens too. We might get a Max Holmes, but the likelihood is you end up with a Cooper Stephens/Deven Robertson.

Top 10 pick and I'm with you, but if it's the teens pick and some steaknives, you'd take Smith every day of the week even with his potential red flags.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

When has that worked? In like the entire history of the League?

Luke Ball? Didn’t he end up where he wanted to go anyway?

If a player wants to go somewhere, get what you can. There is not much you can do.

Just look at Dunkley had the doggies traded him where he chose originally they would have gotten a better deal.

Let’s hope they have learnt from the past and deal with which ever club Bailey chooses.

 

[dazbroncos]

Well who cares, there is never a positive thing said about the Pies from almost all of the industry.
We love to be hated

Im positive im happy when you lose and im thankful to you blokes when it happens.

that nice and positive.

GO Catters

 

[Foxman98]

Just look at Dunkley had the doggies traded him where he chose originally they would have gotten a better deal.

Let’s hope they have learnt from the past and deal with which ever club Bailey chooses.

No we wouldn't have,

Anything we got was getting swallowed up for Ugle-Hagan

 

[mattwa]

Just look at Dunkley had the doggies traded him where he chose originally they would have gotten a better deal.

Let’s hope they have learnt from the past and deal with which ever club Bailey chooses.

We also nearly won the flag because we had Dunkley in 21

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

No we wouldn't have,

Anything we got was getting swallowed up for Ugle-Hagan

I cannot recall if future first were available then. If it was a good starting point.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

When has that worked? In like the entire history of the League?

Luke Ball? Didn’t he end up where he wanted to go anyway?

If a player wants to go somewhere, get what you can. There is not much you can do.

Amazing that it gets said every year and people don't learn. This isn't the NBA.

If Bailey wants to go to Geelong...he's going to Geelong.

Likewise if he wants Hawthorn, there's nothing either club can do.

It doesn't mean you don't have to offer something reasonable, you still do, but the Dogs can't maximize their return like they'd be able to in a perfect world.

Otherwise, we'd all just send our players to bottom 4 clubs to get the absolute best deal like other sports allow.

We know first hand from the Tim Kelly deal that it doesn't work that way.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I cannot recall if future first were available then. If it was a good starting point.

Future firsts were first available in the 2015 trade period. We used one for Lachie Henderson and it's was the first time it had been used.

 

[FootyLad0]

Amazing that it gets said every year and people don't learn. This isn't the NBA.

If Bailey wants to go to Geelong...he's going to Geelong.

Likewise if he wants Hawthorn, there's nothing either club can do.

It doesn't mean you don't have to offer something reasonable, you still do, but the Dogs can't maximize their return like they'd be able to in a perfect world.

Otherwise, we'd all just send our players to bottom 4 clubs to get the absolute best deal like other sports allow.

We know first hand from the Tim Kelly deal that it doesn't work that way.

People like to quote Nick Stevens and Jade Rawlings when

1. Those were over two decades ago when the rules and movement were different LOL

2. Those guys ended up either where they wanted to be and/or out of their original club.
Bottom 4 clubs aren't gonna try snag a guy in Preseason Draft if that guys says he ONLY wants to play somewhere in 2024. It's bad optics, this isn't NBA2k where you can veto everything and do trade overrides.

3. These list managers have to deal with each other on a monthly basis, they aren't gonna get all emotional and pissy if a guy wants to go somewhere. Players have agents now...Do you want to be the club that gets a reputation with an agent? They will steer all their clients away from you. Just look at Freo and Colin Young, ask them how much that guy affects their offseasons.

There's always a little back and forward to see the two clubs can slightly tweak the ideal pieces of a trade but otherwise 99% is bluster. They pretty much always get a deal done. Especially guys who are out of contract. They have nothing tying them to their current club. We've seen this soo many times in the past however many years.

If Bailey says he wants to go to place XYZ, he'll get to XYZ.

 

[THE_GUN]

If cats have #14 that ends up #16 that looks pretty lite on and a F3 really doesnt move the dial a great deal
specially if the points value is gone for 2025.
#14+F2 is looking more like fair value

 

[FootyLad0]

If cats have #14 that ends up #16 that looks pretty lite on and a F3 really doesnt move the dial a great deal
specially if the points value is gone for 2025.
#14+F2 is looking more like fair value

Could see that ending up the deal.

 

[adogsfan5]

Question for WB supporters. If Baz, chooses Geelong, what else would you want from them if their first pick is 12-14? This could realistically be pushed back to 16-20.

Probably gonna need a second rounder somewhere in there I reckon. If 14 ends up 16, it certainly makes it a little uglier.

 

[year of the cat]

If cats have #14 that ends up #16 that looks pretty lite on and a F3 really doesnt move the dial a great deal
specially if the points value is gone for 2025.
#14+F2 is looking more like fair value

For a guy coming off an ACL and two mediocre seasons who couldn’t break into the Dogs starting midfield? I know I’m talking him down but I’m not sure the Dogs can demand too much for him. We’d probably want something back if we gave up a 2nd rounder in addition.

 

[THE_GUN]

For a guy coming off an ACL and two mediocre seasons who couldn’t break into the Dogs starting midfield? I know I’m talking him down but I’m not sure the Dogs can demand too much for him. We’d probably want something back if we gave up a 2nd rounder in addition.

24 year old top 10 talent thats lived up to his draft position

If what you mentioned was a concern then no point taking him but with multiple suiters and chances are on very high salary
the price is pretty much that i would say.

Without these concerns you would be thinking top 5 pick

 

[Klink]

If cats have #14 that ends up #16 that looks pretty lite on and a F3 really doesnt move the dial a great deal
specially if the points value is gone for 2025.
#14+F2 is looking more like fair value

I reckon that's bang on.

On SM-A526B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[CatToTheFuture]

For a guy coming off an ACL and two mediocre seasons who couldn’t break into the Dogs starting midfield? I know I’m talking him down but I’m not sure the Dogs can demand too much for him. We’d probably want something back if we gave up a 2nd rounder in addition.

It's not zero risk but I'd be confident in that trade.

We've drafted so many kids recently, why squabble over a second rounder?

 

[Vindicater]

+1

I'd take Weddle over Smith.

I would also take Weddle over Smith.

But not in the midfield.

 

[TylerDurden]

I would also take Weddle over Smith.

But not in the midfield.

Weddle will end up in the midfield/ wing, down the track.

 

[Vindicater]

Weddle will end up in the midfield/ wing, down the track.

Wing I see. I was more speaking pure midfielder. Think Smith has greater scope there. Weddle though could be an absolute beast of a wingman.

 

[FootyLad0]

It's not zero risk but I'd be confident in that trade.

We've drafted so many kids recently, why squabble over a second rounder?

Yeah if the end deal was say Pick 16 and a F2 for Smith and a F3 i'm doing it.

We've drafted and traded for a buttload of kids. We need guys in the 24-28 year old age bracket.

 

[Bald]

Reckon the trade for Dunkley is a good starting point if we are looking at later 1st round picks.

 

[FootyLad0]

Reckon the trade for Dunkley is a good starting point if we are looking at later 1st round picks.

Just a refresher on Dunkley trade:

The Lions sent Pick 21, their future first-round pick, their future second-round pick and a future fourth (tied to Geelong) while the Lions get Josh Dunkley, a future third-round and fourth-round (tied to Melbourne)

Would you do:

Roughly Pick 16 and a F2 for Smith and a F3?

 

[Bald]

Just a refresher on Dunkley trade:

The Lions sent Pick 21, their future first-round pick, their future second-round pick and a future fourth (tied to Geelong) while the Lions get Josh Dunkley, a future third-round and fourth-round (tied to Melbourne)

Would you do:

Roughly Pick 16 and a F2 for Smith and a F3?

Probably not. We have to assume Geelong finish top 6 or so in 2025, whilst it’s likely we finish in the 8-12 bracket again.

Don’t think 16 and a mid 30s pick for Smith and a mid 40s pick is fair for us.

Would ideally be 16 and something in the early to mid 20s with just Smith going out IMO.