Speculation Bailey Smith

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Bald said:
Probably not. We have to assume Geelong finish top 6 or so in 2025, whilst it’s likely we finish in the 8-12 bracket again.

Don’t think 16 and a mid 30s pick for Smith and a mid 40s pick is fair for us.

Would ideally be 16 and something in the early to mid 20s with just Smith going out IMO.
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I wouldn't be so bold to assume we finish top 6 next year. We'll have a harder draw and the depth kids will be playing a significant role with about 7 significant retirements. I think you can rule out top 4 and bottom 4 but everything else is on the table
 
Bald said:
Probably not. We have to assume Geelong finish top 6 or so in 2025, whilst it’s likely we finish in the 8-12 bracket again.

Don’t think 16 and a mid 30s pick for Smith and a mid 40s pick is fair for us.

Would ideally be 16 and something in the early to mid 20s with just Smith going out IMO.
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I wouldn't be assuming that at all. We have potentially 5/6 blokes looking at retirement at the end of this season.
We are going to be a much younger and much more inexperienced best 23 in 2025 with a much harder schedule than this year. There's a much higher likelihood that our future picks (like that Future 2nd i was referring to) are much much more valuable and therefore the Cats won't want to trade those for just anything.

2024 is kind of a "lets have a last run at it while we have transition the key roles to the younger guys year"
We currently have these blokes at 33 years old or older.

Tom Hawkins: 35 (will retire end of season)
Zach Tuohy: 34 (likely to retire end of season)
Patrick Dangerfield: 34 (one more year then retire)
Rhys Stanley: 33 (will retire end of season)
Mark Blicavs: 33 (few years left then retire)
Gary Rohan: 33 (last year or so, potential retire end of season)
Mitch Duncan: 33 (probably 1 more year then retire)

Cam Guthrie is 31 and has barely played in the last year and a half due to long term injuries, he's on the verge of hanging it up as well, could even be end of this season.

Dogs need picks this year, Cats need picks 2025 and beyond. Cats will be happy to give up a first this year as last years draft they took 7 picks (guys like O'Sullivan, Mannagh, Humphries etc).
The need now is to fill the gaps in the 24-28 year old age bracket. That's a guy like Bailey Smith. Big role and he'll get what he wants if he goes to Geelong.
 
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if it was 16 and this years second with our F3 going back I'd probably take that deal. Just putting a premium on current picks over future speculation. an area in which we've not done great, i think the club might be risk adverse and rather just get picks in now

That would leave us with 3 fairly solid picks to use this year, and Geelong would have SMith ad just speculative late stuff to use for 2024. Not sure if that sounds realistic or not

From a Dogs point of view I think this also works for us a lot as we'd have a decent shot of trading up if we wanted. Some clubs will be trading out for points and armed with a first and a couple seconds we'd be in a good spot to make a move up if we were inclined to.
 
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Bald said:
Probably not. We have to assume Geelong finish top 6 or so in 2025, whilst it’s likely we finish in the 8-12 bracket again.

Don’t think 16 and a mid 30s pick for Smith and a mid 40s pick is fair for us.

Would ideally be 16 and something in the early to mid 20s with just Smith going out IMO.
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Same as CTTF, I wouldn't be betting on top 6. Not even taking the piss.

We'll bounce back up again in '26 or '27 IMO, but '25 could be a rougher year getting even more games into the kids, and our depth will be even more youth.

On face value we might have the same or even a better list next year, but several veterans/depth players will be gone, so things could get ugly if we have a bad year with injuries.

We were unlucky with them last year, and lucky this year. Every chance that reverts again next year as these things tend to do.
 
The smart clubs work to create fair trades, because it creates goodwill, which you need in this business. Bulldogs have always had good trading relations with West Coast, Saints, Adelaide amongst others.

Essendon as an example, has shot itself in the foot with a reputation for being unrealistic and difficult, possibly part of the reason Bulldogs refused to trade Dunks to them, played them at their own game demanding two firsts. (The carry on from Essendon when Crameri wanted to come to us was just petulant).

Brisbane trading out their first pick when they wanted Dunks was low, but they did have two father sons they had to get points together for, but they won’t get any favours from the Bulldogs in the future, and one day they will want a favour from us so it will eventually cost them.

Power is a very good negotiator, so if Baz does choose Geelong, I don’t think you will get him bargain cheap, and it wouldn’t be hard to persuade him to consider the club he supported all his life in Hawthorn if you don’t offer genuine trade and draft options. Most players want to ensure there previous club is fairly recompensed for them. Dunks perhaps an exception because his father is very bitter towards the AFL and wants his kids to focus on accumulating money while they can (wouldn’t surprise me if he goes to another club who offers more money at the end of his contract).

The problem I see is that Hawthorn has draft picks and or some good young players who could be steak knives, whereas I don’t see any young players of interest at Geelong, as we need midfielders too, and your cupboard is bare. Your draft picks too are not attractive for a player we paid pick 7 for, and is a proven big game player.
 
Dogs_r_barking said:
The smart clubs work to create fair trades, because it creates goodwill, which you need in this business. Bulldogs have always had good trading relations with West Coast, Saints, Adelaide amongst others.

Essendon as an example, has shot itself in the foot with a reputation for being unrealistic and difficult, possibly part of the reason Bulldogs refused to trade Dunks to them, played them at their own game demanding two firsts. (The carry on from Essendon when Crameri wanted to come to us was just petulant).

Brisbane trading out their first pick when they wanted Dunks was low, but they did have two father sons they had to get points together for, but they won’t get any favours from the Bulldogs in the future, and one day they will want a favour from us so it will eventually cost them.

Power is a very good negotiator, so if Baz does choose Geelong, I don’t think you will get him bargain cheap, and it wouldn’t be hard to persuade him to consider the club he supported all his life in Hawthorn if you don’t offer genuine trade and draft options. Most players want to ensure there previous club is fairly recompensed for them. Dunks perhaps an exception because his father is very bitter towards the AFL and wants his kids to focus on accumulating money while they can (wouldn’t surprise me if he goes to another club who offers more money at the end of his contract).

The problem I see is that Hawthorn has draft picks and or some good young players who could be steak knives, whereas I don’t see any young players of interest at Geelong, as we need midfielders too, and your cupboard is bare. Your draft picks too are not attractive for a player we paid pick 7 for, and is a proven big game player.
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With respect though, you had a choice with Dunkley. Whether or not you trade him to us or Hawks is his choice not yours.
 
Foxman98 said:
Well it does because you aren't getting the 6th best player you are getting the 8th,

If the top 10 were all academy picks is pick 1 really pick 1?
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You’ve kinda refuted the first part of your post for me.
The pick number is irrelevant and really only a mind game people confuse themselves with.
Let’s pretend there were 10 academy players all potentially going to clubs other than yours.
We get to draft night, all the discounts/pick swaps are sorted and all those players end up at those clubs.
If that occurs in JUH’s draft year, would you care if he’s pick 11 instead of 1?
You’ve still got the best player available to you at the time and used your first pick.
 
CatToTheFuture said:
I wouldn't be so bold to assume we finish top 6 next year. We'll have a harder draw and the depth kids will be playing a significant role with about 7 significant retirements. I think you can rule out top 4 and bottom 4 but everything else is on the table
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Oh I realise there are reasons why you likely won't finish top 6 next year but when trading for future picks you just simply have to assume a club is going to finish around or at where they finished the year of the trade. Even more so when you're talking about a club as consistent as Geelong.
 
Bald said:
Oh I realise there are reasons why you likely won't finish top 6 next year but when trading for future picks you just simply have to assume a club is going to finish around or at where they finished the year of the trade. Even more so when you're talking about a club as consistent as Geelong.
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Either way we're not talking a massive gap in perceived trade value.

I think they'd basically have a trade sorted out. They would pretend to have a stand off. Last day trade radio has a melt down. Trade goes through after the deadline for what is a pretty reasonable trade.
 
CatToTheFuture said:
Either way we're not talking a massive gap in perceived trade value.

I think they'd basically have a trade sorted out. They would pretend to have a stand off. Last day trade radio has a melt down. Trade goes through after the deadline for what is a pretty reasonable trade.
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I agree - but at the same time I think asking for Bailey and a 4th for a late 1st and a 3rd is a bit of a stretch haha.
 
CatToTheFuture said:
Either way we're not talking a massive gap in perceived trade value.

I think they'd basically have a trade sorted out. They would pretend to have a stand off. Last day trade radio has a melt down. Trade goes through after the deadline for what is a pretty reasonable trade.
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The trade period is much more like WWE than we'd like to admit.

90% of it is already sorted, and held back for dramatic effect.

Exception is those salary dump deals that happen late in the piece like Treloar for instance.
 

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CatToTheFuture said:
With respect though, you had a choice with Dunkley. Whether or not you trade him to us or Hawks is his choice not yours.
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My point is that you might not come out a winner if you play hardball and don’t offer fair compensation, these things can bite you back down the track.
 
Kobe Gryant said:
The trade period is much more like WWE than we'd like to admit.

90% of it is already sorted, and held back for dramatic effect.

Exception is those salary dump deals that happen late in the piece like Treloar for instance.
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I really, really want Mackie, who has moved on to a management role, to come in during the last few minutes of the trade period, tag in and start hitting people with fold up chairs
 
Jon Ralph on Fox minutes ago - Bailey Smith linked to both Collingwood and Geelong, Collingwood not out of the race for him.

Interesting Hawthorn not mentioned.
 
tmpies01 said:
Jon Ralph on Fox minutes ago - Bailey Smith linked to both Collingwood and Geelong, Collingwood not out of the race for him.
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Not that interesting. He said last week Collingwood were 0% chance of luring him. It all points to Ralphy having NFI where Baz will end up.
 
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Speculation Bailey Smith

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