Trade Requested Bailey Smith

[CatToTheFuture]

Is your belief that we'll slide to the bottom half of the ladder based mainly on us receiving a significantly more difficult fixture next year, or on a decline you foresee in the output of older guys like Danger? Not necessarily disagreeing with your contention btw, just curious to know your reasoning. If it's the latter reason I think we're actually doing an alright job managing the transition of the senior guys out of the side. The likes of Tuohy, Duncan, Bews, and Blicavs may still be in the side but they're all way less important to us than they used to be, so I feel we can cover their departure or decline.

Likely Round 1 team next year if Smith arrives (age as of Round 1 2025 in brackets):

B: Kolodjashnij (29) J.Henry (26) Zuthrie (26)
HB: Humphries (22) Blicavs (33) Stewart (31)
C: Dempsey (22) Holmes (22) Miers (25)
HF: Close (26) Cameron (31) Mannagh (27)
F: Stengle (26) Neale (22) O.Henry (22)
R: SDK (24) Dangerfield (34) Smith (24)
Int: Atkins (29) Bowes (27) Bruhn (22) Mullin (25)
Sub: Duncan (33)

This team is similar to the one that finished 3rd this year, with only Tuohy, Stanley and Bews out of the side. Note that there's only 5 players over the age of 30.

The age profile and quality of this teams looks okay to me. Nothing here screams "definite fall down the ladder" imo.

Even if you say those guys we lose are depth that's still a hell of a lot of depth to lose.

Back of the napkin mid season calcs I had us losing more combined games experience than North did with their 2016 cull.

 

[SSSSSS]

When do the Dogs hold their exit meetings?

Should hear pretty shortly as to where Baz wants to go.

 

[Trent the flight Steward]

When do the Dogs hold their exit meetings?

Should hear pretty shortly as to where Baz wants to go.

This week it will be, they won't say where as the cats are still playing

 

[SSSSSS]

This week it will be, they won't say where as the cats are still playing

Never know. Battle and Barrass announced quite early.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Never know. Battle and Barrass announced quite early.

Yeah and GWS spilled the beans only days before we went into a grand final.

Could still announce Hawks too, dunno

 

[SSSSSS]

Yeah and GWS spilled the beans only days before we went into a grand final.

Could still announce Hawks too, dunno

I would be extremely surprised if he went with us.

Pretty sure we've cooled off and prioritised B1 and B2. But who knows maybe we are still in with a sniff for B3.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Is your belief that we'll slide to the bottom half of the ladder based mainly on us receiving a significantly more difficult fixture next year, or on a decline you foresee in the output of older guys like Danger? Not necessarily disagreeing with your contention btw, just curious to know your reasoning. If it's the latter reason I think we're actually doing an alright job managing the transition of the senior guys out of the side. The likes of Tuohy, Duncan, Bews, and Blicavs may still be in the side but they're all way less important to us than they used to be, so I feel we can cover their departure or decline.

Likely Round 1 team next year if Smith arrives (age as of Round 1 2025 in brackets):

B: Kolodjashnij (29) J.Henry (26) Zuthrie (26)
HB: Humphries (22) Blicavs (33) Stewart (31)
C: Dempsey (22) Holmes (22) Miers (25)
HF: Close (26) Cameron (31) Mannagh (27)
F: Stengle (26) Neale (22) O.Henry (22)
R: SDK (24) Dangerfield (34) Smith (24)
Int: Atkins (29) Bowes (27) Bruhn (22) Mullin (25)
Sub: Duncan (33)

This team is similar to the one that finished 3rd this year, with only Tuohy, Stanley and Bews out of the side. Note that there's only 5 players over the age of 30.

The age profile and quality of this teams looks okay to me. Nothing here screams "definite fall down the ladder" imo.

The expected more difficult fixture is a consideration, though I think it's going to be a bit of a transition year in general across the competition: lots of teams around the 7th-13th range on this year's ladder expected to rise to potentially being contenders next year.

But mainly, while I'm very excited about our under 24 crop and what they've shown, it's a huge step for them to carry the side week-in/week-out. They've had that responsibility to some extent in 2024 and that's partly why we've been inconsistent.

Plus, as mentioned, there's the question of depth and what we do if there's a significant injury list and/or long-term injuries. Next up to come into that team is Conway as ruck (a huge question mark with his own availability), C. Guthrie (ditto), O'Connor, Knevitt, Clohesy, Clark.

That's it, for players who've played senior football for us, off the top of my head (probably forgetting someone). And Clark is the third most experienced of that group, as far as AFL games. Suggests to me that we're going to be a pretty raw group, unless we have a charmed run with injuries. And there'll be the natural ups and downs during the season because of that.

 

[Bulldogs85]

When do the Dogs hold their exit meetings?

Should hear pretty shortly as to where Baz wants to go.

Some players will have their exit meeting others won’t since our VFL side is still playing

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Pretty sure he's is still tied to the Dogs regardless of contract status as he's not a free agent.

He's not a player you can shuffle through the PSD if a deal isn't struck. Every other VIC team would pick him in the draft or PSD without hesitation.

This comes up every year and almost never happens.
If it got to the PSD (which it wouldnt) he would simply put a huge price on his head for 2 years amd other clubs wont touch him if he refuses to meet with them etc.

If on the other hand hes happy to go to say a couple of other clubs then its different. But if he wants only geelong and is adamant he will get there even if the picks are unders (same as dunkley did).

Fwiw i dont agree and i think clubs should be able to trade players without consent but thats not how the system is.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Which best 22 player would the cats be prepared to trade out to get their 1st rounder to pick #12-#14 range

None.

Best 22 players like holmes sdk humphries mannagh etc etc wont be traded under any circumstances.

Parfitt will go (although i doubt we get compo better than band 5 at best) and guys like knevitt clohesy would be the ones that might be gettable for good offers and i can see clubs looking at oconnor. But guys like osullivan are too essential because of blicavs age and clark is very happy here.

We wont need to push our r1 up the order anyway.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Totally understand you not wanting to overpay, but the reality is if you win the flag, your talk of your 1st this year and and F2 equals a pick in the early 20s and a pick in the 30s. Thats not close to his value even with his ACL in consideration.

What brisbane traded for dunkley wasnt value either. Basically 2 picks in the 20s for a player that didnt have the injury risk smith does. I feel sorry for the bulldogs but this is the system the aflpa has been allowed to create.

Our current 1st and 2 2nds (say 18 38 and future 30) is about the best we can and will offer and the dogs wont get better than that from us.

 

[Baudolino]

Plus, as mentioned, there's the question of depth and what we do if there's a significant injury list and/or long-term injuries. Next up to come into that team is Conway as ruck (a huge question mark with his own availability), C. Guthrie (ditto), O'Connor, Knevitt, Clohesy, Clark.

That's it, for players who've played senior football for us, off the top of my head (probably forgetting someone). And Clark is the third most experienced of that group, as far as AFL games. Suggests to me that we're going to be a pretty raw group, unless we have a charmed run with injuries. And there'll be the natural ups and downs during the season because of that.

Just on this: I'm starting to wonder if maybe the club ends up keeping Bews on as small defender depth for another year to help alleviate the experience loss going into 2025? I'd been considering it more or less a given that he wouldn't be offered a new contract, what with him being out of the side most of the year and all, but given how many other retirees there are likely to be (Tuohy, Stanley and Hawkins for sure, and possibly Rohan too, with Parfitt likely to move on to another club), perhaps the clubs desire to avoid a mass exodus helps Bews out? Plus, he's back in our finals side now so it would be a bit of mixed messages to suddenly delist him after so recently bringing him back into the side.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Is your belief that we'll slide to the bottom half of the ladder based mainly on us receiving a significantly more difficult fixture next year, or on a decline you foresee in the output of older guys like Danger? Not necessarily disagreeing with your contention btw, just curious to know your reasoning. If it's the latter reason I think we're actually doing an alright job managing the transition of the senior guys out of the side. The likes of Tuohy, Duncan, Bews, and Blicavs may still be in the side but they're all way less important to us than they used to be, so I feel we can cover their departure or decline.

Likely Round 1 team next year if Smith arrives (age as of Round 1 2025 in brackets):

B: Kolodjashnij (29) J.Henry (26) Zuthrie (26)
HB: Humphries (22) Blicavs (33) Stewart (31)
C: Dempsey (22) Holmes (22) Miers (25)
HF: Close (26) Cameron (31) Mannagh (27)
F: Stengle (26) Neale (22) O.Henry (22)
R: SDK (24) Dangerfield (34) Smith (24)
Int: Atkins (29) Bowes (27) Bruhn (22) Mullin (25)
Sub: Duncan (33)

This team is similar to the one that finished 3rd this year, with only Tuohy, Stanley and Bews out of the side. Note that there's only 5 players over the age of 30.

The age profile and quality of this teams looks okay to me. Nothing here screams "definite fall down the ladder" imo.

Look if we win the flag even more older guys might retire (except blicavs bc contracted). Our young talent under 24 is very good but our 24-28yo bracket (mannagh does help here i admit) isnt full of quality players to replace the older ones. It will also hit our depth as if we get injuries we will have 1st and 2nd yr players filling in not experienced ones, unless we draft 2 or 3 mature age at the back end of the draft again. Collingwood has shown the risk of trading a future 1st with an ageing list-i dont see us risking it.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

This comes up every year and almost never happens.
If it got to the PSD (which it wouldnt) he would simply put a huge price on his head for 2 years amd other clubs wont touch him if he refuses to meet with them etc.

If on the other hand hes happy to go to say a couple of other clubs then its different. But if he wants only geelong and is adamant he will get there even if the picks are unders (same as dunkley did).

Fwiw i dont agree and i think clubs should be able to trade players without consent but thats not how the system is.

Smith or his manager has made it fairly clear through the media he's weighing up multiple offers from clubs.

Geelong, Hawks, Pies

If Geelong don't want to pay fair price he won't make it through the PSD past those teams.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Smith or his manager has made it fairly clear through the media he's weighing up multiple offers from clubs.

Geelong, Hawks, Pies

If Geelong don't want to pay fair price he won't make it through the PSD past those teams.

Hes weighing up offers.

But eventually he will choose one and the dogs have to trade with them alone-same as happened with dunkley even though other clubs have better picks.

What you are suggesting is that he would pick 3 clubs which is unprecedented.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Hes weighing up offers.

But eventually he will choose one and the dogs have to trade with them alone-same as happened with dunkley even though other clubs have better picks.

What you are suggesting is that he would pick 3 clubs which is unprecedented.

Difference is Cats fans are talking about trading a pick that will likely be in the 20s for him... Brisbane eventually had to stump up something close to fair price.

Cats will have to do the same

 

[Ka Norkers]

well, he ain't going to Hawthorn. He wants midfield time, and last night the Hawks won comfortably without Day and Mackenzie, so realistically Smith would be a long way back in the queue for a spot in there.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Difference is Cats fans are talking about trading a pick that will likely be in the 20s for him... Brisbane eventually had to stump up something close to fair price.

Cats will have to do the same

Brisbane traded 2 picks in the 20s for dunkley who was a star and hadnt done an acl.
Geelong will be offering a late teens/early 20s pick plus a future 2nd and maybe some change (not a future 1st) which is close enough to the brisbane offer considering the risk. They arent getting a future 1st out of us.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Just on this: I'm starting to wonder if maybe the club ends up keeping Bews on as small defender depth for another year to help alleviate the experience loss going into 2025? I'd been considering it more or less a given that he wouldn't be offered a new contract, what with him being out of the side most of the year and all, but given how many other retirees there are likely to be (Tuohy, Stanley and Hawkins for sure, and possibly Rohan too, with Parfitt likely to move on to another club), perhaps the clubs desire to avoid a mass exodus helps Bews out? Plus, he's back in our finals side now so it would be a bit of mixed messages to suddenly delist him after so recently bringing him back into the side.

100%. He's in the side and playing well enough that he'd at least be in the conversation to hold his spot for the preliminary final. He hasn't been a malcontent despite being a fixture in the VFL for most of the season, great team man. Plus Gary Rohan (another guy who, by all accounts is a very positive influence whenever he's been demoted to the VFL) seems to have fallen off a cliff in terms of his form in recent weeks. They're not exactly like-for-like (if anything, small defender depth is a more obvious need), but if their names were on the whiteboard and the brains trust were figuring out which oldies to chop and which to keep, Bews has potentially edged ahead of Rohan over the past month.

He could still be a regular senior player at a lot of clubs and we may not be able to offer that to him, but if he's happy to stay, I think it's worth discussing. It's really about whether he's hindering someone else's development as Bews will almost certainly produce more than whoever we take with a late pick to fill his list spot. And given how 2024 has unfolded, I think it's pretty clear that Mullin and perhaps Clohesy will be given every opportunity to make a role that Bews formerly held in the senior team as their own. But I wouldn't be against Bews sticking around at this stage in case that doesn't work out, or as injury coverage.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Brisbane traded 2 picks in the 20s for dunkley who was a star and hadnt done an acl.
Geelong will be offering a late teens/early 20s pick plus a future 2nd and maybe some change (not a future 1st) which is close enough to the brisbane offer considering the risk. They arent getting a future 1st out of us.

And if the Dogs rightfully tell the cats to gagf?

Dogs have the leverage here not the Cats

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

And if the Dogs rightfully tell the cats to gagf?

Dogs have the leverage here not the Cats

Then we go "Oh no, rotten old Dogs, making us keep our draft picks" and walk away.

It almost never plays out this way, but we shouldn't be that desperate to get Bailey Smith at any cost. There's no reason for us to be.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

And if the Dogs rightfully tell the cats to gagf?

Dogs have the leverage here not the Cats

Ill say it again. If smith isnt willing to be traded to another club besides geelong they have no leverage.

Either way geelong isnt offering an fr1.

 

[FootyLad0]

And if the Dogs rightfully tell the cats to gagf?

Dogs have the leverage here not the Cats

No they don't lol?

Out of Contract players have the leverage, in other words Bailey does.

If Dogs try to play hardball they piss off Bailey, his agent (Colin Young and Freo situation happens where agent steers players away from clubs who actively cause issues and are difficult to deal with), Player's Union will be pissed which is a big no no.

Being ****wits at the trade table over a guy you have no leverage over isn't a good result long term.
Sam Power if he's smart wouldn't **** up any future recruiting for his club by doing that, he can haggle for a bit but in the end they'll work it out.

Lets wait until Baz requests a trade first. That hasn't even happened yet.

 

[Hamingja]

100%. He's in the side and playing well enough that he'd at least be in the conversation to hold his spot for the preliminary final. He hasn't been a malcontent despite being a fixture in the VFL for most of the season, great team man. Plus Gary Rohan (another guy who, by all accounts is a very positive influence whenever he's been demoted to the VFL) seems to have fallen off a cliff in terms of his form in recent weeks. They're not exactly like-for-like (if anything, small defender depth is a more obvious need), but if their names were on the whiteboard and the brains trust were figuring out which oldies to chop and which to keep, Bews has potentially edged ahead of Rohan over the past month.

He could still be a regular senior player at a lot of clubs and we may not be able to offer that to him, but if he's happy to stay, I think it's worth discussing. It's really about whether he's hindering someone else's development as Bews will almost certainly produce more than whoever we take with a late pick to fill his list spot. And given how 2024 has unfolded, I think it's pretty clear that Mullin and perhaps Clohesy will be given every opportunity to make a role that Bews formerly held in the senior team as their own. But I wouldn't be against Bews sticking around at this stage in case that doesn't work out, or as injury coverage.

A month ago I would have kept Rohan for next year. His last couple of outings however have been atrocious. It will be a decision that the club knows a lot more about than us. It might end up a decision between say Rohan and Willis for example. Willis has shown AFL level traits sporadically but on overall actual output hasn't done enough in the VFL. The club will know what Willis is like professionally as far as prep etc goes or if Rohan is playing though a debilitating injury that will heal up with a break over summer, and that sort of info could swing it either way.

I think Bews has done enough to stay if he wants to. He would need to be happy to do the same role as this year. Expect a fair bit of VFL time and be available for break glass in emergency situation. I expect MOC will bounce back from his knee injury next year and in H&A matches you are going to put time into Mullin.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Being ****wits at the trade table over a guy you have no leverage over isn't a good result long term.
Sam Power if he's smart wouldn't **** up any future recruiting for his club by doing that, he can haggle for a bit but in the end they'll work it out.

The irony is at mind melting levels