Best Brownlow bets

[Dunn - Well Done]

What are the best brownlow bets on the TAB at the moment. This can include head to heads, group, quinella, top 5, each way or to win or anyhting.

I have $20 and want to bet on some roughie type bets so i can earn myself some cash. Last year $20 on jimmy paid off and i won $200.

I am thinking
Judd top 3 $4.25
S.Thompson top 5 $15
Swan top 5 (may not do this if i do didak one)
Black to lead first 11 rounds $4

and also maybe Didak most votes for pies at $14

any other suggestions appreciated

 

[King_Mallee]

Reckon Ablett is a monty to lead after 11 rounds

 

[demon_fanatic]

nah ablett had a burst from rounds 9-13 where he went nuts so basically round 11 only covers 2 of those games... black had his burst from round 8-11 where he could get four BOGS in a row.... black is great value along with cooney for that bet... take black

 

[RU486]

I put $5 today on Thompson to be leading at Rd 11, paying at $71 to $1 so some good value there.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

yeah not bad that S.Thompson one wish there was a top 3 after round 11 and he was like 20 to 1.

Also Cooney is dropping in price he could poll very well i think the umpires will love him. Not many vote stellers at dogs and he is a red head goal kicking midfielder. Doggies also won alot of games where he should poll in most of them. hes now at $15 and Craig O'Donoghue did the analysis of the brownlow and thinks he will win it.

 

[Moo]

Scott Thompson is $1.88 head to head against Chance Bateman on SB.

This is the only bet I have taken.

 

[demon_fanatic]

ok some more bets proved too tempting for me to let go, so now all my multis leading club player bets are basically just cover or a sweetener as i have plumped bigtime on bartel, gone over his games and think he has ablett covered by 5-7 votes and will finish around 27-31 votes....

$100 bartel to win 3.50

$50 Black to lead after round 11 $4.00 ( i have black 18, Cooney 16,
Ablett 16)

$100 multi of Harvey most kangas, black most lions, thompson most ade $1.90

$50 Bartel to poll 25-26 votes $5.50
$50 Bartel 27-28 votes $6.50
$50 Bartel 29 + votes $9

Now i did bartels count normally not in a positive frame of mind before i backed him and have come up with 29... i think he definately goes over 25 so i love these bets i have put on... you get less value backing the market "winnners total votes" but i am very confident on bartel i instead selected "bartels amount of votes" to boost the odds to 5.50-9.00 prices instead of the 3.75-6.00 odds offered for basically the same choices...

Can't see how Ablett leads black after round 11 those odds of 1.65 are crazy everyone should be throwing 100 on Black and Cooney, sure ablett may take the lead after round 13 but not round 11... black started hot last year this will continue i think... cooney the main danger but he isnt a proven poller yet...

snap up the 2.10 or watever for bartel to beat ablett... id say it's nearly a moral...

Lets go Jimmy B.. i had him 11 votes at round 11... 29 at round 22

 

[gnostic]

ok some more bets proved too tempting for me to let go, so now all my multis leading club player bets are basically just cover or a sweetener as i have plumped bigtime on bartel, gone over his games and think he has ablett covered by 5-7 votes and will finish around 27-31 votes....

$100 bartel to win 3.50

$50 Black to lead after round 11 $4.00 ( i have black 18, Cooney 16,
Ablett 16)

$100 multi of Harvey most kangas, black most lions, thompson most ade $1.90

$50 Bartel to poll 25-26 votes $5.50
$50 Bartel 27-28 votes $6.50
$50 Bartel 29 + votes $9

Now i did bartels count normally not in a positive frame of mind before i backed him and have come up with 29... i think he definately goes over 25 so i love these bets i have put on... you get less value backing the market "winnners total votes" but i am very confident on bartel i instead selected "bartels amount of votes" to boost the odds to 5.50-9.00 prices instead of the 3.75-6.00 odds offered for basically the same choices...

Can't see how Ablett leads black after round 11 those odds of 1.65 are crazy everyone should be throwing 100 on Black and Cooney, sure ablett may take the lead after round 13 but not round 11... black started hot last year this will continue i think... cooney the main danger but he isnt a proven poller yet...

snap up the 2.10 or watever for bartel to beat ablett... id say it's nearly a moral...

Lets go Jimmy B.. i had him 11 votes at round 11... 29 at round 22

Got to agree with comments regarding Black leading after round 11. In my spreadsheet analysis (to which everybody is welcome to look at. Just send me your email address...), you can see clearly that Cooney and Black dominate. $4 seems like juicy odds to me.

 

[Trailblazer]

Got to agree with comments regarding Black leading after round 11. In my spreadsheet analysis (to which everybody is welcome to look at. Just send me your email address...), you can see clearly that Cooney and Black dominate. $4 seems like juicy odds to me.

Wouldn't mind a look gnostic: djcaulfield at bigpond dot com

THanks in advance....

 

[Danger Mouse]

Judd and Simon Black are my only interests although in all reality, i'm just guessing. Haven't put any work into it at all unlike some!

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I reckon Jimmy will win it but think Cooney could give it a really good shake. He dominated everytime the doggies won (early in the season) and he has 3 of his last 4 games where he could poll which could win it for him.

Also S.Thompson is paying massive to be leading at the half way mark. He has 2 BOG's in round 10 and 11 which gets him 6 votes.

Round 2 he gets 25 posses and a goal (win)
Round 3 he gets 27 posses (win)
Round 6 he gets 33 posses (BOG) (win) - no one looks like stealing the votes
Round 7 28 posses (win) - should get 2 or 1 most likely 1
Round 10 - 3 votes
Roud 11 - 3 votes

in my mind he should at least be on 10 or 11 without including rounds 2 and 3 where he could get some minor votes, only thing is that Cooney,Black and Ablett also dominate first half but thompson is paying 71 to 1

 

[the_big_sav]

richo to lead at half way? i reakon he will poll 80-90% of his votes then and i reakon he will poll high teens all up

 

[gnostic]

Wouldn't mind a look gnostic: djcaulfield at bigpond dot com

THanks in advance....

Thanks to all that have provided feedback for the Needham analysis spreadsheet. I've been telling people that it was basically up to them to interpret the spreadsheet, but I've done a quick assessment based upon the approximate weighting I'd give. The results were as follows:

Harvey 26
Pavlich 25
Cooney 24
Bartel 23
Ablett 23
Black 21
Corey 21
Riewoldt 20
Richardson 20
Selwood 18
Swan 17
Stevens 16
Kirk 15
Bateman 14
Foley 14
Judd 14
Murphy 12
Thompson 12
O'Keefe 10
Cox 6

Please note that these were the only players I considered worthy of assessing. The assessment spreadsheet is also now available for those that want it.

 

[murph#3]

is deledio the best value bet at $201?

and fev at $501 isn't to bad either.

 

[blue_boys]

Thanks to all that have provided feedback for the Needham analysis spreadsheet. I've been telling people that it was basically up to them to interpret the spreadsheet, but I've done a quick assessment based upon the approximate weighting I'd give. The results were as follows:

Harvey 26
Pavlich 25
Cooney 24
Bartel 23
Ablett 23
Black 21
Corey 21
Riewoldt 20
Richardson 20
Selwood 18
Swan 17
Stevens 16
Kirk 15
Bateman 14
Foley 14
Judd 14
Murphy 12
Thompson 12
O'Keefe 10
Cox 6

Please note that these were the only players I considered worthy of assessing. The assessment spreadsheet is also now available for those that want it.

are you serious

Pavlich will get no where near 25, let alone about half of that!! Freo only won 6 games and he isn't guaranteed to poll in all of those.

Also how could you have Stevens on that many votes (and to beat Judd)

 

[blue_boys]

is deledio the best value bet at $201?

and fev at $501 isn't to bad either.

they are at those odds for a reason................ they have no chance

people have to remember the winner, in recent history has always been one of the favourites. And by that I mean at least in the top 10 favourites.

 

[hess]

I've done my own analysis and had a look at Neeham's spreadheet which is terrific (thanks a lot gnostic)

My count is as follows (only referring to players on Neeham's spreadsheet):
Bartel 28
Harvey 26
Ablett 24-25
Cooney 24-25 (leading at round 11)
Pavlich 23 (could drop down due to not enough wins)
Riewoldt 23
Corey 22
Richardson 19
Simon Black 18
Dane Swan 18
Scott Thompson 17
Chris Judd 16
Joel Selwood 15
Brett Kirk 15
Chance Bateman 14
Ryan O'Keefe 12
Nick Stevens 12
Nathan Foley 12
Marc Murphy 9
Dean Cox 6

My initial thought is to bet around a few trifecta bets with Ablett to miss or come in third with the top 5.

I like Cooney to lead at round 11, Black to beat Selwood and Corey to beat Judd.
Harvey and Bartel both dominate the second half of the year but I think Bartel will have a few votes up on him in the 1st half.

 

[Funkalicous]

If people are gonna put Black as leading after round 11 then you may as well multi it with Bartel to win outright. If Ablett doesn't open a big lead after the first half than Bartel has him covered easily.

 

[hess]

richo to lead at half way? i reakon he will poll 80-90% of his votes then and i reakon he will poll high teens all up

I think he'll be on around 10 at round 11.
Ablett somewhere between 11-15, my guess would be 14.
Black and Cooney both between 14-17 which should see one of them ahead of Ablett and considering the value they are both great bets.

Bartel has a much better second half but could still poll as much as 12-14 votes in the first half.
Round 2 he was terrific.
Rounds 3-5 he should poll, 30 possessions in 2 and 27 and 2 goals the other.
Round 7 Ablett missed and he had 27 disposals and 2 goals.
He's a chance in round 8 with 22 possessions and 7 tackles.
I see him getting at least 15 votes in the second half so if he can be over 10 at half way he'll be hard to beat.

 

[thegreenmachine]

When I went to the TOTE yesterday they had the odds of a Hawthorn player winning it was 101-1. I put $5 on that bet for a potential return of $505.

 

[hess]

Anyone know how Corey usually polls?

Having another look through he could be a smoky, I know Bartel and Ablett will take the majority of the BOG's but he was ultra consistant and as they win 21 games there'll be plenty of votes available.

Rd 1: 30 disposals, neither Ablett or Bartel dominant.
Rd 2: 30 disposals, 2 goals. Ablett and Bartel both very good but may get 1.
Rd 3: 34 disposals, 9 tackles. 2-3 votes.
Rd 4: 29 disposals. Bartel 31, in the mix for votes again.
Rd 6: 35 disposals. Neither Ablett or Bartel dominant.
Rd 7: 31 disposals. Bartel good as well, Ablett missed.
Rd 10: 34 disposals. Ablett very good.
Rd 12: 34 disposals. Ablett and Selwood very good.
Rd 14: 30 disposals. Bartel and Selwood very good.
Rd 15: 35 disposals. Bartel and Selwood good again.
Rd 16-21 he averages 30 disposals... Bartel gets plenty though.

Very consistant all year with a few chances at BOG. He's a hard one to predict but definatley in the mix for a top 5 finish.

 

[Pklz]

http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/1819/brownlowoddskd5.gif

 

[the_big_sav]

ive heard geelong ppl say corey was better last year and he only polled 9-10 votes so usually hasnt been a strong poller

 

[Trailblazer]

Any hope McVeigh for Sydney's highest vote-getter? Around $12.00.

 

[The Grover]

richo to lead at half way? i reakon he will poll 80-90% of his votes then and i reakon he will poll high teens all up

No he's relying on too many loss games for votes, may only get 1's or 2's.