Betfair layers.....an opportunity

[sethlad]

There are always opportunities at this time of year on Betfair with Ante Post betting,due to the fact it is an English site.

As we speak,Luca Cumani's horse Purple Moon is around a $21 chance (Centrebet) in the few open markets to win the Melb Cup.
He is the last start Ebor winner.

Now as we all know,backing any horse 2 months prior to the race is risky.
Especially one who has to travel here & settle in & this is without an EI outbreak.

Taking all this into account,what price would you expect him to be on Betfair?
An agency where its expected that the best price for any horse is available 99% of the time

He is currently $12.5 to back & $13.5 to lay in "an all in" market
This price IMO is ridiculous.

Considering PM is hardly rated as a topliner in the UK,I find it unlikely that he could possibly run shorter than his current 20/1,assuming he even gets here & runs in the Great Race.

Just cant see how you can lose laying him?
If he doesnt come,the $$$ are yours.......I admit its a while to wait.
If he does,the choice is yours.........back him at bigger odds for a sure profit or watch him go round at unders........not many have won here.

EG: Lay $100 @ $13.5......Back later65 @ $21 (likely to do much better IMO)
Profit $34 after 5% commission,not a bad %

seth

 

[angus6]

are you sure that is right. it doesnt sound right.
say you put $100 on each.
if he wins you collect $1250
if he gets beat you collect $1350

so either way you make a profit of over $1000.
you cant lose.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

I would imagine you will get better than the $13.50 on the Tote on the day if the worst came to the worst.
I like the thinking Seth, honestly can't lose & really clean up if it doesn't get here.

Might get me one of these Bet Fair accounts.
As they say there's one born everyday.

 

[sethlad]

are you sure that is right. it doesnt sound right.
say you put $100 on each.
if he wins you collect $1250
if he gets beat you collect $1350

This isnt right,if he doesnt arrive or doesnt win,you get the initial amount of the lay bet.....ie $100
If he does win,you pocket the difference between the $100 & the $65,ie $35

Theres $21 at Centrebet as we speak so technically you could lay it & back it today & lock in the profit......albeit you do have to wait to collect.
Personally Id say he'll get out past $21 on Betfair so Ill be waiting.

At the minimum Ive taken the lay price,IMO it can only ease.
If they decide not to come,the $$$ are yours
If you wait to lay it,the price you need may not be there whereas you can always back.

**** Now $13.5 to back & $14.50 to lay,still massive unders but doubt itll last********

seth

 

[Pres]

Out to $16.50 now to lay for $180. Next price $17 for $60.

Probably unders but I'm not about to sit here for two months and risk three and a half grand to win $200.

 

[sethlad]

There was $300 available at $13.5 Friday.
You dont have to give the lay price,current bet price is $12.5...just offer $13.

I guess you either understand that the risk is nil or you dont.
If you dont have the $$$,thats a different issue.

seth

 

[Pres]

You are correct of course - my issue with the strategy probably relates more to your last point. Using your example at the top the amount of punters around here who have a lazy $1300 lying around in their punting accounts to lock away in Betfair for two months to win $34 is probably very few.

 

[sethlad]

All true however it would do most punters a lot of good to have a longer term view of their investments.

Compared to a standard 7% over 12 months before tax,looks ok to me.

seth

 

[johnnyhoward]

Definite value there seth, but why tie up your money for so long for such little return? You're only getting 7%, which is OK compared to other investments, but not when you're punting and have better opportunities.

IMO a better bet would be to chuck $10K on Federer at 1.44 and then lay it off when he gets to the final and is paying 1.30 or less. I suppose he could get injured though Still, it's a 10%+ return in one week which is worth it.

 

[sethlad]

I guess its all about level of risk V guaranteed return?
Worse case is arond 7%,if they decide not to come its considerably higher because you wouldnt need to back it at all.

Fed looks a moral but you're right,he could get injured.
Tennis is looking dodgier by the day on Betfair.

seth

 

[starz]

When i had a look a while after i saw this thread there was only $100 matched around those odds.

I'm wondering why, if it's so good, you didn't/don't snap it up yourself?

Hardly worth it for $20 -$30 if it comes off anyway.

 

[Deej]

i'd be in on something like this if you could bet for much larger amounts, those amounts i just dont think it's worth it given how far away the cup is. If it were running next week, different story.

 

[sethlad]

When i had a look a while after i saw this thread there was only $100 matched around those odds.
I'm wondering why, if it's so good, you didn't/don't snap it up yourself?
Hardly worth it for $20 -$30 if it comes off anyway.

I'll give you a hint Starz as you appear to be a Betfair novice,amongst other things.
Click on the horses name & you will see $1690 matched at $13.
Some of it was mine ok?

You just stick to giving your price assessments ($6 Apache Cat) & leave the serious stuff to those who know what theyre doing.
The fact you say "if it comes off" says it all.

I know this aint for you Deej but everyone should stick with what they're good at.
Imagine how much better off most punters would be if they knew their strengths.

Just letting punters know that theres a big punting world out there,thats all

seth

 

[starz]

It's hardly worth a thread for a few bucks.
Maybe you're getting paid by betfair for all your advertisements or something?
$13-$14 was still there, only more was matched days later.
I Would have thought you'd snap it up and kept it to yourself if it was so good.

Afterall "I'm not giving tips, everyone wants something for nothing"

 

[sethlad]

Thanks for your opinion that guaranteed $$$ are "hardly worth a thread"
Keep the negatives coming,its all you're good for here.

This is a board for sharing information,thats what this thread is about.
Luckily its up to the individual to decide whether its worthwhile for them,not you & your many alter egos.
Pity you cant edit other peoples threads like you do to your own.

All you do is post negative crap,why bother infecting this thread with your petty comments?
You just had to post a negative in the MF thread as well.

Stick with your 3 day old Melb Cup news.Thats your level.

seth

 

[Deej]

I know this aint for you Deej but everyone should stick with what they're good at.

Totally agree with that. I'm lucky in that I know my limitations.

 

[johnnyhoward]

Don't be disheartened seth, just because a few don't understand what you're talking about. It's a good point you've raised and I was certainly interested in it.

BTW the Fed is into 1.31, with a semi against Davydenko to come. In hindsight, Djokovic would have been better - was 8.00 a couple of days ago, now 5.60.

 

[sethlad]

No dramas
Certainly helps not having Nadal there

seth

 

[johnnyhoward]

I actually think Fed has Rafa's measure on hardcourt and would have preferred him in the final to Djokovic. Novak looks to be a genuine threat of winning the title - he beat the Fed in a final recently.

Very off topic now, but what odds do you think Federer will be assuming the above matchup? 1.25 is my guess.

 

[sethlad]

Bit shorter Id guess,he's $1.3 to win the title

seth

 

[sethlad]

PM is again available to lay at $13 for over $700.
He can be backed at Sportingbet @ $21.

seth

 

[johnnyhoward]

Federer laid at 1.22 (hope he doesn't win now or I'll have foregone a bit of profit). That's 17% in a week

 

[johnnyhoward]

What stake did you lay at seth? A hard fought lay with Purple Moon beaten by a head, although I think he was 9.00 to lay before the race (edit: around about 6 actually)

I was reminded of this thread just checking my account...$2K on the place markets, then I saw this:

Selection  	Odds  	Stake (AUD)  	Bid type  	Placed  	Matched (GMT)  	Profit/loss (AUD)
Purple Moon 	14 	10.00 	            Lay 	09-Sep-07 11:48 09-Sep-07 11:48 	10.00

Didn't even realise I had that bet on. It wouldn't have made a difference to me if it won, but as I said, a hard fought lay...

 

[SorryIHammerChicken]

There was $300 available at $13.5 Friday.
You dont have to give the lay price,current bet price is $12.5...just offer $13.

I guess you either understand that the risk is nil or you dont.
If you dont have the $$$,thats a different issue.

seth

"Nil" risk? Lucky for you it came off, but hardly easy money, especially considering you'd have to give up $140 to win $10, like JH did

 

[sethlad]

If you dont understand arbitrage then whats the point of commenting?

Lay a horse at a price
Back it later at a higher price.......... whats so hard to understand?
Risk is nil........luck doesnt come into it as the bet result is decided well before the race

seth