Betting strategies and banking/betting methods for sports punting?

[SirJimi05]

I get into a bit of sports punting for fun and have found myself in front over the last 1.5years but i have no system or rules inthe way i bet.

I generally put on atleast one multi every week, often only using the AFL or sometimes throwing in some other sports such as EPL if i am having trouble finding any value in the AFL.

Last weekend i won 2 multis returning me approx $1400 but i might now go the next 6-7 weeks (or longer) without getting a sniff. Generally i place at least $50 per multi but most times i bet $100.

I tend to be pretty good at picking winners but have no idea about banking/betting systems and stuff like that.

I would like to take a more mechanical approach if possible and try and see if i can start to see more consistant profits.

I am interested to those who are good at Maths some ideas they may have for this sort of thing. Example - should i be betting a certain amount with a starting bankroll? Should i increase my bets after every loss? Should i have a minimum payout requirement for my multis depending on what my bankroll and bet is?

Look forward to hearing any advice or tips you guys might have to offer.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Don't chase.
Don't have a minimum payout.

Be truthful.

Be systematic.

Find out what area best suits you. Find your own personal cons and pro's in your betting. Find reasons as to why they exist.

Try and find a way to destroy the cons. And start betting.

Never mix 'fun' bets and 'mechanical' bets together in results. It may blind you.

 

[SirJimi05]

Don't chase.
Don't have a minimum payout.


Be truthful.

Be systematic.

Find out what area best suits you. Find your own personal cons and pro's in your betting. Find reasons as to why they exist.

Try and find a way to destroy the cons. And start betting.

Never mix 'fun' bets and 'mechanical' bets together in results. It may blind you.

This is what i am trying to achieve.

In the last year or so i have pretty much ironed out alot of my mistakes and now i want to be more systematic in my sports betting. Should i start with a set bankroll and then only bet a certain % of this for each bet?

 

[Oaksnaf]

This is what i am trying to achieve.

In the last year or so i have pretty much ironed out alot of my mistakes and now i want to be more systematic in my sports betting. Should i start with a set bankroll and then only bet a certain % of this for each bet?

Personally I would start with 3 banks.

Bank A 1%
Bank B 2%
Bank C 5%

That is 1,2,5% of your starting bank. Not progressive.

When you have reached a profit of 50% of your starting bank.

IE: Start $1000.
Profit $500.

Bet 5% of $1500.

When back to $1000 go back to 5% of $1000.

The different banks will show you what sort of bets and selections work well for you. It will also give you a chance to understand your 'boldness' limits.

 

[adii_7]

just put it all on us to get flogged by hawthorn and liverpool to kill west ham

you sir will be a happy man

lol

 

[dr nick]

Don't chase.

when i first started betting i used to always chase. Figured I could always double up if i lost then double up again and i'd eventually win.

once at the roulette wheel we put this method to the test, always betting on red..
Bet $10 on red... lost.
upped it to $20... came up black
upped it to $40... came up black
then $80, green
upped to $160... black again
upped to $320... black wtf!
upped to $640... RED!! finally.. was shitting bricks though, would probably have been my last bet if it came up black. all that to get $10 to pay for a drink for me and a mate.

never chase

 

[dr nick]

I get into a bit of sports punting for fun and have found myself in front over the last 1.5years but i have no system or rules inthe way i bet.

I generally put on atleast one multi every week, often only using the AFL or sometimes throwing in some other sports such as EPL if i am having trouble finding any value in the AFL.

Last weekend i won 2 multis returning me approx $1400 but i might now go the next 6-7 weeks (or longer) without getting a sniff. Generally i place at least $50 per multi but most times i bet $100.

I tend to be pretty good at picking winners but have no idea about banking/betting systems and stuff like that.

I would like to take a more mechanical approach if possible and try and see if i can start to see more consistant profits.

I am interested to those who are good at Maths some ideas they may have for this sort of thing. Example - should i be betting a certain amount with a starting bankroll? Should i increase my bets after every loss? Should i have a minimum payout requirement for my multis depending on what my bankroll and bet is?

Look forward to hearing any advice or tips you guys might have to offer.

Last year i started with $100 and bet 10% of my bank on every NRL game, so if i got up to $150 that'd be a $15 bet. if i got down to $60 i could only put $6 on.

The trouble with those betting systems is your committed to betting on every game rather than just being very selective and only ever betting on value.

Also when you start betting big bucks its very hard to back the outsiders even if you think their odds are inflated. I tend to win more betting smaller because i go for the long shots which represent value.

 

[johnnyhoward]

There are a number of staking systems out there, but to keep it simple and effective, betting 1%-2% of your bankroll per bet as a rule is pretty sound. It insures you against long losing runs (which will happen), but can be pretty boring if you are punting for thrills only and requires patience. Regardless, you should only bet if you have an edge over the odds offered, don't bet on every game.

It also depends on the size of your bank. If you have $100 and can earn that back pretty quickly if you lose, then betting $1 per bet may be a little low and losing 10% of your bank in one bet might not hurt you that much. If, however, you have $10K as your bank and lose 10% of that on one bet, then it will obviously cause you some distress.

So IMO the 1%-2% rule is pretty solid - your bet size goes up as your bank increases and goes down as your bank decreases but you are never at any stage in danger of losing your bankroll (assuming you are betting on teams with a 30%+ chance of winning; betting on $50/1 horses as a strategy will require an even lower % per bet)

 

[timmeh]

Been betting the NFL, college football, nba and college basketball over the past six months. Am up a very decent amount after getting into a nice rythym.

I split my units as 100% overall. 1 unit = 1% of my betting account.

Bet no more than 10% in a day of my account. Aparat from today where i plonked 50% on rajhasthan when they were pretty much guarenteed with live betting.

Recent trends (current season/preseason) are much more easier to use than super dooper long historical stats. Unless offcourse a team absolutely OWNS another team.

If its a new season, you'll find generally that the two teams that finish last in the the previous season have inflated +points for spreads throughout the new season. Generally find some decent buys (spesh in the NBA) - early draft picks make a HUGE difference.

Oh yeah, as the other guys mentioned. Don't chase. Although the John Morrision NBA system was decent last season, works better filtered and hit very high. (had a separate account for that!)

That's all I can think of right now, but if anything else comes up will add to the list!

 

[Subaru Impreza]

I dont personally go for multiple bets.

Im more of a trader, prefer swings and turns in a game to change positions. For eg Twenty20 cricket, NBA, tennis there are many fluctuations, bet against people's emotions and always trade out of bets by laying at 1.0X's.

 

[Ill Chicken]

when i first started betting i used to always chase. Figured I could always double up if i lost then double up again and i'd eventually win.

once at the roulette wheel we put this method to the test, always betting on red..
Bet $10 on red... lost.
upped it to $20... came up black
upped it to $40... came up black
then $80, green
upped to $160... black again
upped to $320... black wtf!
upped to $640... RED!! finally.. was shitting bricks though, would probably have been my last bet if it came up black. all that to get $10 to pay for a drink for me and a mate.

never chase

House wins.

 

[SirJimi05]

There are a number of staking systems out there, but to keep it simple and effective, betting 1%-2% of your bankroll per bet as a rule is pretty sound. It insures you against long losing runs (which will happen), but can be pretty boring if you are punting for thrills only and requires patience. Regardless, you should only bet if you have an edge over the odds offered, don't bet on every game.

It also depends on the size of your bank. If you have $100 and can earn that back pretty quickly if you lose, then betting $1 per bet may be a little low and losing 10% of your bank in one bet might not hurt you that much. If, however, you have $10K as your bank and lose 10% of that on one bet, then it will obviously cause you some distress.

So IMO the 1%-2% rule is pretty solid - your bet size goes up as your bank increases and goes down as your bank decreases but you are never at any stage in danger of losing your bankroll (assuming you are betting on teams with a 30%+ chance of winning; betting on $50/1 horses as a strategy will require an even lower % per bet)

Thanks for the input. Let me clarify a couple of things and then see what you think.

1. My starting bank will be $1000-$1500. Basically i am going to be using my winnings from last week to start more seriously so hopefully i will never be playing with my own hard earned cash.

2. I tend to onlybet on multiples. Last year when i started doing them i would bet $100 on one bet each round of the AFL and i would tend to try and chase big returns of $20+. I got to about $1800 down but hit a nice mutli in round 19 of last season which ended up giving me an overall profilt for the season even though i missed in rounds 20-22. This season i have changed tact and i just come up with th multio i am most confident with regardless of what it is paying anf this has been working well. I have started including other sports such as EPL, tennis etc when i am sure of a winner.

3. TBH i wouldnt want to go under 5% of my bankroll per bet. What do you think?

4. I will most likely be betting up to 3 multi's max per week with the occasional single bet thrown in when i see fit.

5. My bankroll will never be used on horses, dogs etc. Only the sports i know well.

Doesanything change taking the above nto account?

Oh and i would have no problem betting 5% of my bank even if my bankroll grew significantly andf i dont think it would alter my thinking in the bets i place.

 

[Ill Chicken]

I'm looking at a strategy for next season's NBA. US sports are excellent due to the no tie/draw and the amount of games they play in a regular season.

 

[Deledio2Conca]

HAHA funny you start a thread like this Jimi, as over the past week I myself have been looking for betting strategies and way to manage my bankroll.

I've ended up betting 10% of whatever my current bankroll at the time is, I'm hovering around the $50 mark, which was the amount I deposited.

Also, any chance you could post up your multis you have been doing? Woulsn't might following

Thanks mate.

 

[SirJimi05]

HAHA funny you start a thread like this Jimi, as over the past week I myself have been looking for betting strategies and way to manage my bankroll.

I've ended up betting 10% of whatever my current bankroll at the time is, I'm hovering around the $50 mark, which was the amount I deposited.

Also, any chance you could post up your multis you have been doing? Woulsn't might following

Thanks mate.

no worries mate.

My multi bets from last week were:

$100 on collingwood, Australia vs Pakistan 4th odi, Man utd EPL, Sydney

Paid $681

$50 on stkilda, nadal vs djokovic total games 21-26, west tigers/bulldogs under.

Paid $480

I had a third multi which i just missed out on and to be honest t was just my heart that cost me the win and it is something i need to not do again. One leg i tipped Essendon +39.5 points when i should have just tipped Brisbane for the win. Silly mistake but hopefully i learn from it. The losing multi was:

$50 on Hawthorn, Fremantle, Essendon +39.5

It would have paid $291.

I have one running at the moment lready landed the first leg. It is:

$100 on Man Utd to draw or win champions league game, Australia vs NZ test, Hawthorn, Carlton.

To win $291.15.

I will put on another one tonight with 3 legs involving the other champions laegue game. Will post it once settled.

 

[Daytripper]

Fiirst thing you need to do is open up accounts at as many betting outlets as you can.

Personally I have accounts at Centrebet, Flemsportsbet, IAS, Sportingbet, Sportsbet, Luxbet, Betfair and the TAB.

Winning on sports (or anything for that matter) is difficult and you MUST (I repeat MUST) take the best odds available. If you cop unders then you are basically ripping up money you otherwise could have won. Most betting outlets offer credit these days so there is no need to have money parked at every place. Just make sure you settle every week and be disciplined about it.

With multis always lay off on the last leg if you are still alive. But be smart about it. If you have the favourite going in the last leg then back the other side at the start to lay off.
For example if the last leg of an alive multi in an AFL game is $1.50 don't rush in and back the other side at $2.25. Instead back the other side at the start at say +10.5. That way if the favourite wins you collect your multi but if the favourite wins by less than 10.5 then you collect on both sides. And of course if the outsider wins you chop out.
Think about how you lay off and try and have one result (even if its a 2 point gap) going as a big winner for you. Sometimes I can ponder/strategise for an hour or so on the best way to make my bet work for me.

Keep records and study your betting trends. What is working for you. What isn't. For instance I love betting on golf - its probably my favourite sport in the world to bet on - but a year long analysis of it showed that it just wasn't profitable. Now I just content myself to having small interest bets on golf. IN short bet large on what you are good at and have small interest bets on those that you aren't. And don't kid yourself that you are doing better at something that you aren't. Its important to be truthful with yourself.

 

[Oaksnaf]

With multis always lay off on the last leg if you are still alive. But be smart about it. If you have the favourite going in the last leg then back the other side at the start to lay off.
For example if the last leg of an alive multi in an AFL game is $1.50 don't rush in and back the other side at $2.25. Instead back the other side at the start at say +10.5. That way if the favourite wins you collect your multi but if the favourite wins by less than 10.5 then you collect on both sides. And of course if the outsider wins you chop out.
Think about how you lay off and try and have one result (even if its a 2 point gap) going as a big winner for you. Sometimes I can ponder/strategise for an hour or so on the best way to make my bet work for me.

Those people that place their bet and then stare at the ticket looking at the 'payout' amount never think about laying off. They only find an excuse as to why the bet lost.

Oh I should have gone with my head, but I went with my heart. I would have won last week. Yawn Yawn Yawn.



There is NO right or wrong way to make a selection. There is only a right or wrong way to back them!


Many, many fall into the trap of constantly adding selections into a multi because "oh they will win". $1.01 Australia lost to Bangladesh. And there are many more. Don't include a multi selection just because "oh they should win". Be serious!

It is just like centrebets AFL line. It makes punters slip into the "oh this is easy" state and all of a sudden, they are having 6 legs to return $2.50 and wham, they cop a loss. Because they didn't seriously consider the bet. Just like flexi betting. It is meant to be seen as easy pickings because now you can have many more selections in a bet.

What about those 'free bets'. How quickly are they used by most accounts and they tend to be 'fun' bets. Don't treat it as a free bet.

On betfair you can often get better prices for an outsider, by laying the favourite, rather than backing the outsider straight out.

You have to also consider the amount of time that you invest in your gambling, when and where you place your bets. How and when you analyse your selections.

A frustrating day at work, can lead to hasty decisions to 'save time'. A personal drama may cause a wondering mind. You have to consider your mental state. Which is underestimated. Are you tired? Have you over-analysed?

If your confused. HAVE A BREAK. You don't have to bet everyday, every week. Heck you can go 3 months in a year without having a bet, just to get yourself back on track.

A few losses can get you thinking "it is time to win big". A few more.... who knows. Out of control and bank busted.

Personally. I don't bet aggresively on any mutli's, exotics.



I find it strange to read that you were $1800 down on AFL multi's, then hit a big one to put you in profit for the year. When now you are only looking at having a $1000-$1500 bank which encorporates bets outside AFL aswell.

$100 is 10% of $1000. Multi's..... And you want your bank to last how long?

What happens when you blow your bank? Do you simply just start again with a new one? What happens when you blow that one? Start again?

There has to be a point where you understand the difference between failure and ego. Your ego will want another bank as soon as the other one has been blown. Failure, you haven't failed. You just need more time.

Think real.

Be real.


All this macho business "I haven't deposited any money in my account since XXXX".

Personally I deposit money into my account every week.


BUT

I must say. Most seem concerned about managing their winnings..... Whats the best way for me to continue winning. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. If your winning....whats the problem?

Why does it always have to be about winning money STRAIGHT AWAY. Why can't punters just learn the long hard road of $100 bank. 1% level stakes betting. Just see how long you can control yourself for with 5 bets a week.

Do it for a year. And maybe you might go well at $1000 1%. Then the next year. $2000 at 1%. The next $3000 at 1%. The amount will soon become irrelevant. It will all become %'s.

Think about learning. Don't think about winning. The more you think about winning, the more concentrated you are on your bank balance, and you start selecting bets and placing bets that you wouldn't normally take, all because you are looking at the balance.

Your bank rises, your bets rise, your bank lowers, your bets stay the same as you want to recover. You increase your bets. You add an extra leg. You become too concentrated on the amount. You become obessive compulsive and you cannot stop betting until your account is on 'even' money, just so it is easier to analyse. $350..... could have been $359. But you had to spend that $9 on a random bet.




3 multi's MAX per week. Already have two multi's. It's Wednesday. So one more multi for the rest of the week.

Don't set rules you know you can't follow.

BE PATIENT DISCIPLINED TRUTHFUL ​

I suppose that is enough from little random rantings.

GOOD LUCK for your punting in 09 and beyond!

 

[dr nick]

$1.01 Australia lost to Bangladesh. And there are many more.

funny you should mention that game. I got on Bangladesh.

True story.

 

[Ferris_rules]

funny you should mention that game. I got on Bangladesh.

True story.

Hmmm we all make stupid choices, but as long as it doesnt affect the bank permanently then all is good.

You MUST NEVER EVER have a $1.01 event in any multis or in any outright bets.

Risk versus reward !

I made 3 banks bets last year, although all three saluted the stress before and during cannot be measured ! Only one of those results was a given after 1/qtr time. Note that this is poor money management, I have learnt this without any hard lessons.

Almost backed the bank for the cats to win the 08 flag, hmmmmm !

There is some good advice in this thread.

No more than 5% of your bank on any particular outcome.

There is no certainty in sport.

I learnt this when SA mowed down Australia's total of 434 in an ODI.

To be a good sports punter you need to:

1) do your homework/reasearch on the event;
2) identify value;
3) have a bank;
4) bet 5% max on any particular event;
5) not get swayed by your heart when betting on your team.

 

[Dutchy10]

some excellent posts here.

I also work on 1-5% of my bankroll as my bets but rarely go above 3%.

Some other points -

- Always keep records of every punt you have
- work out what you are good at and what you arent
- effort in = effort out
- never stop learning

Some say on here "Dont chase" which is true but I use some chase systems for low stakes that are very profitable, particularly on US sports like NHL, NBA & MLB which have games every day

If you want to boost your bankroll Id suggest some bonus whoring, very easy.

I have also started to dabble in some services, some bad some good, all part of the experience. There are some excellent free tips around the place also, particularly US sports

Most of all enjoy it

 

[johnnyhoward]

Some say on here "Dont chase" which is true but I use some chase systems for low stakes that are very profitable, particularly on US sports like NHL, NBA & MLB which have games every day

That sounds like controlled chasing, where you up the ante from 0.5% of the bank to a max of 5% of the bank, nothing wrong with that. Most people go from 10% to 50% and lose the lot quickly

 

[timmeh]

Some say on here "Dont chase" which is true but I use some chase systems for low stakes that are very profitable, particularly on US sports like NHL, NBA & MLB which have games every day

Defo agree.

Awesome, awesome strike rate with John Morrision NBA betting system this season. Although you need to buy 3 points in each series. And it does require you to martingale up to three games!

If anyone wants a copy of the John Morrision system PM and I'll get ya onto it so you don't have to pay the stupid $197. The guy who's selling the system isn't even John Morrision!

 

[Ferris_rules]

That sounds like controlled chasing, where you up the ante from 0.5% of the bank to a max of 5% of the bank, nothing wrong with that. Most people go from 10% to 50% and lose the lot quickly

I chased last weekend on Sunday arvo backed the Swans at the line 17.5 pts at $1.90 I thought was good value and felt justified with the selection before the match.

Hmmmm seeing Barry Hall slot that goal at the end, allowed me to enjoy the rest of my arvo at the bar, but geez I hate making money that way!

Not sure about other punters in here rather the team i backed lead by over 10 goals then to have a tight close finish, some punters may like to live on the edge and the adrenalin rush. Not me.

Instead of chasing try dividing your bets as follows in multi's

FRI/SAT (about 5 games to choose from)

SAT/SUN (7 games)

SUN (3 games)

Ive been screwed a few times having all multis on an "easy" Friday match only to have the bet fried at about 11pm that night !

 

[mercurial]

With multis always lay off on the last leg if you are still alive. But be smart about it. If you have the favourite going in the last leg then back the other side at the start to lay off.
For example if the last leg of an alive multi in an AFL game is $1.50 don't rush in and back the other side at $2.25. Instead back the other side at the start at say +10.5. That way if the favourite wins you collect your multi but if the favourite wins by less than 10.5 then you collect on both sides. And of course if the outsider wins you chop out.
Think about how you lay off and try and have one result (even if its a 2 point gap) going as a big winner for you. Sometimes I can ponder/strategise for an hour or so on the best way to make my bet work for me.

Sorry, but this is wrong. Sure, from time to time you've had a futures bet a double-figure odds and you'd like to guarantee yourself some cash, or thrown some money on a "for the hell of it" parlay which you didn't think would get close, and, again, you'd like to see a bit of that cash.

But saying "always hedge on the last leg of a parlay" is using flawed logic. You are effectively paying vig on both sides of the wager.

Using a basic example. So you've taken a four team parlay with an Australian corporate this weekend, taking four teams at the line, for $100.00.

So at 1.91 x 1.91 x 1.91 x1.91 you get odds of 13.31. $100.00 x 13.31 = $1331.00.

Your last leg of the parlay is St. Kilda -17.5 (wrong side IMO, but that isn't the point ). So you decide to hedge on Collingwood +17.5. S you bet $697 on Collingwood +17.5, guaranteeing yourself a payout of $1331 for an outlay of $797.00, ie. a guaranteed profit of $534.

Now if you'd completely left out the MNF game and taken just the first three legs, you'd have gotten a payout of $697.00 from $100.00, a profit of $597.00.

As I said before, there is going to be the occasional situation when it is probably a good idea to guarantee yourself some dollars. Or, if the outcome of your parlay has had its probability altered (injuries, weather etc.) and the odds/line has dramatically changed. But saying to always lay off is wrong. What you have effectively done is reduced the odds of each leg from 1.91 to 1.85 (1.85 x 1.85 x 1.85 = 6.34), which, as you correctly pointed out in the paragraph earlier, is not good betting practice.

If you know you are not willing to take on the risk in the final leg of the parlay before you bet the parlay, then simple. Do not bet the final leg.

 

[Danger Mouse]

I like what the guys have done in the other thread with the 20 dollar challenge. That from my personal experience is by far the best strategy! Say you have a bank of 100 dollars! Put 90 away, grab 10 and keep rolling the dice on your good bets! Iv'e done that a few times in the past with some huge results!

Once i went broke on betfair right, only put in like 50 bucks to mess around, only church money! Anyway i had 16c left, lol in like no time, funnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnny!

You know what though, you can manipulate the system to still get on a lay bet. That worked it's way up to 6,000 dollars, put 2k back then withdrew simpily cos i wanted bragging rights for my acomplishment. Bought a high end computer that i'm typing with right now.

I really think there's serious edge there in starting small, waiting for the good bets and unloading the entire lot on, bet after bet.... if you get on a roll 10 bucks could be 10 grand in no time.

In fact i say always start small, if you lose, who cares, you've lost nothing! I have applied the same strategy to poker, online iv'e never deposited anything ever unless i had to deposit to withdraw. You can turn 1 dollar into thousands easily but if you lose, does it really matter?

Gambling is risk to reward. You start tiny, the risk is neglible but the reward is enourmous. That's called smart punting imo!

Nobody needs to start with a 5,000 bank or some stupid shit! You're just asking to get your arse handed to you!