Betting strategies and banking/betting methods for sports punting?

[Oaksnaf]

In fact i say always start small, if you lose, who cares, you've lost nothing! I have applied the same strategy to poker, online iv'e never deposited anything ever unless i had to deposit to withdraw. You can turn 1 dollar into thousands easily but if you lose, does it really matter?

Gambling is risk to reward. You start tiny, the risk is neglible but the reward is enourmous. That's called smart punting imo!

Nobody needs to start with a 5,000 bank or some stupid shit! You're just asking to get your arse handed to you!

But if you are continually losing 'nothing' then it soon adds up. Although many of us punt for different reasons and many don't care about the approach.

The size of your bank is irrelevant to me. Mainly because everything for me is based on %'s.

I remember thinking that because I had a good bank, I should be winning a lot more. Not the case.

There is nothing wrong with targetting $50 a week profit with a 5k bank. Because if you keep that up. You should turn 5k into 7.5k. 50% POT.

By any margin, that is a bloody good effort. But when you look at the bank size, and see the bank only growing by $50 over a 7 day period it can become.... frustrating.

10k bank. Target betting of $20 profit a day.

50% POT. 25% POT. It's all good news to me.

All you need to realise is what works well for you in a mental manner, because at what point do you stop on a losing streak? You just need to understand yourself and work on it.

 

[pacemaker]

hmm i wish i read this thread before i did my $500 bet into Geelong and Carlton this week as i thought they will both win. chasing the $200 i lost last week which pretty much bought me back on even terms, i went on chasing to get that money back by doing $500 in to 1.35 for Geelong and Carlton which would of got $175 of the $200 back

Ii have two options now, let the money go or slowly chip away to get it back, it may take a month or 2. but punting in AFL was hard for most this weekend

 

[rossi]

I'm just a rookie better and am currently still using the winnings from my $100 free bet on sportingbet. Some very good advice in here. I had a multi of North, Freo and Melbourne paying $45 (lol I only had $1 on it). I put 40 on West Coast at 1.22 after the first 2 legs came through so I was guaranteed a profit (made about $8). Is that the best thing I could have done in this situation or should I play it differently next time a multi on the outsiders is looking good? I did like the idea of backing the outsider at the line if your last leg is the favourite but I couldn't really do that in this situation.

 

[pacemaker]

well I wouldn't be taking advice from me going by the last two weeks, but i believe selecting line bets on outsiders are a good way to go. I was very close in doing this. Essendon are usually value for money in line betting and i was going to do the line of essendon and melbourne which would of paid a decent amount, depending on what you put on it.
that kang, freo and melb mulit was close i guess putting a $1 or $2 on those wont hurt as long as your putting your money on serious bets that week and winning.

 

[Kahuna]

Nothing wrong with betting outsiders, last leg of a multi thought you might be better of going for the hedge.

Infact if you put money on each individual game in the AFL this year betting for the under-dog you would be infront.

This week - Essendon $5. Freo $4. would get you infront.

 

[sherrin_footy]

i dont understand what line betting is..

like when it says st kilida with the line of - 14.5
:S

 

[GoodesStuff]

i dont understand what line betting is..

like when it says st kilida with the line of - 14.5
:S

That's it mate.

 

[Gift]

i dont understand what line betting is..

like when it says st kilida with the line of - 14.5
:S

Whenever i see these posts I assume the poster is underage and can't place bets anyway, but ill answer your question.

Means saints to win by 15pts or more. I dont get how people can't understand it.

 

[Daytripper]

I'm just a rookie better and am currently still using the winnings from my $100 free bet on sportingbet. Some very good advice in here. I had a multi of North, Freo and Melbourne paying $45 (lol I only had $1 on it). I put 40 on West Coast at 1.22 after the first 2 legs came through so I was guaranteed a profit (made about $8). Is that the best thing I could have done in this situation or should I play it differently next time a multi on the outsiders is looking good? I did like the idea of backing the outsider at the line if your last leg is the favourite but I couldn't really do that in this situation.

Hmmm - thats a tricky one.

What about if you took the West Coast half time full time double ?
You would have at least got better odds than $1.22.

Then if Melbourne are leading at half time - you can re-assess your position then.
Does have a couple of negatives though.
1. It could be level at 1/2 time.
2. Melb could only have a small lead (Eagles to win might be $1.50 or so in that situation) and West Coast come over the top of them

 

[Kahuna]

Its mean you take the 15.5 point from St. Kildas final score and if they still win minus the 15.5 then you win.

Example.

End score tonight is Collingwood 84 St.Kilda 111

Take the 15.5 away from St. Kilda making their new score. 96

Saints still win so you win.

 

[pacemaker]

while we are on the topic then i assume a points start bet 15.5+, i believe its called a handicap bet with sports bet does that just mean the team gets a head start?

eg: if st kilda win by 14 points, and i put a points start of 15.5 of collingwood i still win due to the points start. Is that how it works?

I didnt believe it worked that way as the TAB, or sportsbet can loose out in both. As if both have a 15.5 point head start what happens if st kilda win by 9, and both have a 15.5 head start doesn't the agent have the payout both of the bets? I have always been clear with the line bet but unsure about this one

 

[Daytripper]

while we are on the topic then i assume a points start bet 15.5+, i believe its called a handicap bet with sports bet does that just mean the team gets a head start?

eg: if st kilda win by 14 points, and i put a points start of 15.5 of collingwood i still win due to the points start. Is that how it works?

I didnt believe it worked that way as the TAB, or sportsbet can loose out in both. As if both have a 15.5 point head start what happens if st kilda win by 9, and both have a 15.5 head start doesn't the agent have the payout both of the bets? I have always been clear with the line bet but unsure about this one

My head hurts reading that.

Its simple.

Example 1
You back St Kilda @ -15.5
The scores are SK 100, Coll 80.
You win the bet as SK won by more than 15.5 points

Example 2
You back St Kilda @ -15.5
The scores are SK 100, Coll 90
You lose the bet as SK did not win by morte than 15.5 points

Example 3
You back Coll @ +15.5
The scores are SK 100, Coll 80
You lose the bet as Coll lost by more than 15.5 points

Example 4
You back Coll @ +15.5
The scores are SK 100, Coll 90
You win the bet as Coll lost by less than 15.5 points

 

[Kahuna]

You are talking about this bet aren't you Pacemaker?

"Selection must win or lose by no more than the nominated points."

Ie. tonights game of 15.5 points?

 

[dr nick]

if both have a 15.5 point head start what happens if st kilda win by 9, and both have a 15.5 head start doesn't the agent have the payout both of the bets? I have always been clear with the line bet but unsure about this one

Normally the TAB don't give both sides a 15.5 head start. One will be +15.5 and the other -15.5

I know betfair sometimes has the option of taking Collingwood +15.5 and St Kilda +15.5 but the odds on the pies will be around $2 and the odds you'll get on St Kilda would be about $1.35

So if st kilda won by 9, then you'd be paid out both bets. If St Kilda won by more than 15.5 you'd lose your Collingwood bet but pick up the small winnings from your st kilda bet.

 

[SirJimi05]

Guys what do you reckon about tonights game?

I have had a pretty bad weekend due to the Bombers getting up (well good in the way that i follow the dones) but i am alive in one more multi bet.

I got the first 2 legs which were Western Bulldogs and Man Utd. In the last leg i have the Saints at the line.

This multi is set to pay $267 which will give me a profit of just under $50 for the weekend which i would be wrapt with considering the hit i took.

On the other hand if i dont lay off and i lose i will be down by $200 odd for the weekend.

Any ideas of how i can maximise my profits here. Obviously i dont want to spend too much cash on laying off but i also dont want to be down $200 for the weekend.

Any ideas?

 

[dr nick]

Guys what do you reckon about tonights game?

I have had a pretty bad weekend due to the Bombers getting up (well good in the way that i follow the dones) but i am alive in one more multi bet.

I got the first 2 legs which were Western Bulldogs and Man Utd. In the last leg i have the Saints at the line.

This multi is set to pay $267 which will give me a profit of just under $50 for the weekend which i would be wrapt with considering the hit i took.

On the other hand if i dont lay off and i lose i will be down by $200 odd for the weekend.

Any ideas of how i can maximise my profits here. Obviously i dont want to spend too much cash on laying off but i also dont want to be down $200 for the weekend.

Any ideas?

well jimmeh you can back Collingwood at the line for $125 totally insulating yourself, so you'll be down this weekend about $75 no matter what the result.

If you put $50 on Collingwood +15.5 youll break even if St Kilda win but only lose $150 for the weekend if the pies win.

If it was me i wouldn't lay off. I don't agree with all these people saying you should lay the last leg of a multi. If you didn't want the last leg you should have cut your multi a leg short in the first place and not pay the vig both ways.

 

[SirJimi05]

well jimmeh you can back Collingwood at the line for $125 totally insulating yourself, so you'll be down this weekend about $75 no matter what the result.

If you put $50 on Collingwood +15.5 youll break even if St Kilda win but only lose $150 for the weekend if the pies win.

If it was me i wouldn't lay off. I don't agree with all these people saying you should lay the last leg of a multi. If you didn't want the last leg you should have cut your multi a leg short in the first place and not pay the vig both ways.

Yeah im thinking the same thing at this stage. If i had of taken St kilda straight out i probably could have taken the Pies with a margin and pulled off both bets but i am restricted by having the Saints at the line.

I am very confident the Saint will win comfortably but i though the same about the Hawkers so i guess it has made me a little defensive. lol

 

[Daytripper]

well jimmeh you can back Collingwood at the line for $125 totally insulating yourself, so you'll be down this weekend about $75 no matter what the result.

If you put $50 on Collingwood +15.5 youll break even if St Kilda win but only lose $150 for the weekend if the pies win.

If it was me i wouldn't lay off. I don't agree with all these people saying you should lay the last leg of a multi. If you didn't want the last leg you should have cut your multi a leg short in the first place and not pay the vig both ways.

a) What line have you got St Kilda at ?
b) Forget about your other losing bets. Concentrate how to maximise this one.

 

[SirJimi05]

a) What line have you got St Kilda at ?
b) Forget about your other losing bets. Concentrate how to maximise this one.

I have them at -17.5 . What are your thoughts?

 

[Daytripper]

I have them at -17.5 . What are your thoughts?

Collingwood are +18.5 at IAS, Sportsbet and Canbet. You never know they might even get to +19.5 as the match gets closer to start time (the favourites are generally well backed in the last hour or so).

Anyway back Cwood at the +18.5 (or +19.5 if you're lucky). Maybe have $100 on it if you like.

You have at least covered yourself and if St Kilda win by 18 (or 19) then its happy days as you collect on both.

 

[SirJimi05]

medhurst and davis ate both late exclusions so reckon I won't bother laying off.

Honestly can't see where the goals will come from for the pies.

No didak, Davis, medhurst and Anthony.

 

[pacemaker]

cheers dr nick, yeah TAB do have a points start bet, to the others yes i understand the line bet 100%

So i was right about the points start bet I just thought the points start bet must of had a catch to it as both could win.

 

[Danger Mouse]

But if you are continually losing 'nothing' then it soon adds up. Although many of us punt for different reasons and many don't care about the approach.

The size of your bank is irrelevant to me. Mainly because everything for me is based on %'s.

I remember thinking that because I had a good bank, I should be winning a lot more. Not the case.

There is nothing wrong with targetting $50 a week profit with a 5k bank. Because if you keep that up. You should turn 5k into 7.5k. 50% POT.

By any margin, that is a bloody good effort. But when you look at the bank size, and see the bank only growing by $50 over a 7 day period it can become.... frustrating.

10k bank. Target betting of $20 profit a day.

50% POT. 25% POT. It's all good news to me.

All you need to realise is what works well for you in a mental manner, because at what point do you stop on a losing streak? You just need to understand yourself and work on it.

I think that you think to small! Making 50% of your bank to me is pathetic! Seriously, why can you not turn 5k into 50k in a week? Think of it like this, say you had 5 dollars, could you not turn that into 50 pretty darned easy? It's all mental! People see 5 bucks, pfft nothing, people see say 5 grand and omg, lot of money, play scared, look for 1.05 Manchester United! but 5 dollars and they'll go for it! Anyways look how many odds on shots go down every day in horse racing and greyhound racing, easy money!

Still if your a winner, your a winner! People should do what makes them happy, agree? If your happy winning a tiny % on your investment then who is anyone to say that's wrong anyway!

I think at the end of the day, people never change, they always look for the so called good things, one eventually loses and everyone goes bust. I think 90% of people are like this.

 

[Oaksnaf]

I think that you think to small! Making 50% of your bank to me is pathetic! Seriously, why can you not turn 5k into 50k in a week? Think of it like this, say you had 5 dollars, could you not turn that into 50 pretty darned easy? It's all mental! People see 5 bucks, pfft nothing, people see say 5 grand and omg, lot of money, play scared, look for 1.05 Manchester United! but 5 dollars and they'll go for it! Anyways look how many odds on shots go down every day in horse racing and greyhound racing, easy money!

Still if your a winner, your a winner! People should do what makes them happy, agree? If your happy winning a tiny % on your investment then who is anyone to say that's wrong anyway!

I think at the end of the day, people never change, they always look for the so called good things, one eventually loses and everyone goes bust. I think 90% of people are like this.

Well that's it isn't it. Boring V Exciting punting. Which one do you like and which one works for you.

 

[danielz_23]

Well that's it isn't it. Boring V Exciting punting. Which one do you like and which one works for you.

Hopefully you're not one that needs large amounts to be excited but can't afford it