Analysis Bloods' Performance Discussion 2022

[Kapers]

I made a post last week, and I think it'll probably be better to make a thread to talk about how the swans are going separate from the opposition. Mods let me know if this not the right way to open a thread, or if this is unnecessary.

For example, I wanted to talk about this article:

Flaw finally exposed; you guys awake? AFL Three Word Analysis for Round 4

Flaw finally exposed; you guys awake? Every AFL team analysed in just three words

www.foxsports.com.au

Our analysis was "You guys awake?" which I agree with, and wanted to talk about.

We haven't yet won a full 4 quarter game, and I don't think we've played a full 4 quarters yet.
BTW, in case anyone is curious we have won 3/4, 3/4, 2/4, and 2/4 for a total of 10/16 quarters or 62.5%. As a bit of a comparison, Melbourne has won 75% of their quarters.

Even against Geelong and GWS it hasn't felt like we've played our best, there are moments, but that's what they are, moments.

But this leads us to a massive positive. When we have our moments we score.
Even against the bulldogs, in the first half, we scored 9. If you look at similar games (Geelong 2017 finals, GWS 2018 finals, Fremantle 2020) we never recovered or even got worse as the game wore on. We now have a tonne of avenues to goal, with even Bell and Ronke looking better than they have in the past.

So where from here? 2 games against the middle to lower ladder teams into a big game vs Brisbane. What I want to see is us getting into a consistent groove, obviously winning, but to play ourselves into form. Then against Brisbane and I want to see a 4 quarter effort, from minute 1 to the last second. I'm sure that Longmire will be looking at everything to get the most out of the kids early in games.

If we learn how to start games well we'll go far imo.

 

[Kapers]

For what it's worth, I'm probably a lot more optimistic than a few posters here, I think we can 100% win the premiership. If we can get our pressure right and our team cohesively functioning we are as good as Melbourne. The difference is Melbourne is probably 2-3 years older and more experienced than us. They're also probably got the best 2 mids, ruck, and defender. But we've got the best forward line in the game IMO, and a midfield that is building to something special.

 

[SeanM]

If it is purely about winning Premierships. Then it is about making the finals and then winning finals.

There is a bit of luck involved in being injury free, in good form and winning close games at the right time of the season.

Last season we showed we could beat a lot of other top 8 sides during the season. And then lose a close sudden death game.

I think it is hard to plan to be a Premiership side. All you can do is try to play well in the home and away season and be top 4 or top 8. Then take your chances.

It is great to play well and win games early. But sometimes I think there is too much focus on looking like a Premiership winning side in April.

 

[Dan87]

I think Ladhams is going to be a big part of it from now on. Massive 8 weeks for him. Will be fascinating to watch how he integrates now it's all there to grab.

Super curious if Oliie can hit this next level in front of him, where Rowbottom can get his kicking to, what Logan puts up, if Gulden slumps a bit, is Campbell going to be a freak weapon, if Gould gets close etc

We're going to improve if we stay healthy so just exciting to see some of these bit parts add up

 

[Kapers]

I think Ladhams is going to be a big part of it from now on. Massive 8 weeks for him. Will be fascinating to watch how he integrates now it's all there to grab.

Super curious if Oliie can hit this next level in front of him, where Rowbottom can get his kicking to, what Logan puts up, if Gulden slumps a bit, is Campbell going to be a freak weapon, if Gould gets close etc

We're going to improve if we stay healthy so just exciting to see some of these bit parts add up

I feel like Gulden is currently in a slump, as are a few other blokes. It's actually quite remarkable how well we are going with the list of players not playing to their potential.

I am interested to see how Ladhams goes. Looks like he's got until Hickey returns to cement himself.

 

[Kapers]

If it is purely about winning Premierships. Then it is about making the finals and then winning finals.

There is a bit of luck involved in being injury free, in good form and winning close games at the right time of the season.

Last season we showed we could beat a lot of other top 8 sides during the season. And then lose a close sudden death game.

I think it is hard to plan to be a Premiership side. All you can do is try to play well in the home and away season and be top 4 or top 8. Then take your chances.

It is great to play well and win games early. But sometimes I think there is too much focus on looking like a Premiership winning side in April.

Premierships aren't won in April, that's for sure. I don't want to see us be incredible, but be obviously improving game on game.

 

[the hypnotoad]

For what it's worth, I'm probably a lot more optimistic than a few posters here, I think we can 100% win the premiership. If we can get our pressure right and our team cohesively functioning we are as good as Melbourne. The difference is Melbourne is probably 2-3 years older and more experienced than us. They're also probably got the best 2 mids, ruck, and defender. But we've got the best forward line in the game IMO, and a midfield that is building to something special.

absolutely agree and i'm with you on the optimism ... and i have never been that way with the swans (usually expecting the worst)
i'm on record on this board since the beginning of last season as being hugely excited by the potential of this team, and i've seen nothing over those 13-14 months to dim that in the least ... in fact i'm more buoyed
this is arguably the most talented sydney squad in a generation, the performance of hickey, and the additions of pmccartin and ladhams (to back up hickey) have, in my opinion, lifted us from a potential premiership team to a genuine contender, this year and several into the future ... bringing mccartin in seems to have lifted his brother to a new level, it was a master recruiting move
you're right, melbourne are that couple of years ahead but we're getting all the pieces together to be the team that hunts them down and takes their mantle ... and they knew that, and largely acknowledged it, after we gave them just about their hardest test last season ...
i reckon we're definitely better now, assuming hickey and franklin (but certainly hickey longer-term) get back on the field and stay healthy

 

[caesar88]

I'll do a positive, a negative, and a question mark.

Positive - I Believe the Children Are Our Future. What else but the youth? In terms of going to the next level, Warner & Campbell seem the most well-placed to do so. But the scary part is, even though Blakey, McInerney & McCartin already went to that next level last year, they might've found another level entirely. They all look ready to announce themselves to the competition as not just "rising stars" but "star players". I love the contrast between Blakey & McInerney: the manic, frantic and frankly bonkers run of Blakey, vs the smooth-moving, clean run of McInerney. And the best part is both are such good kicks that they are able to finish off their plays. So it is rarely just a highlight; it's a highlight followed by a highlight. And McCartin is absolutely demolishing the second halves of games. That his first halves are often scratchy tells me that he just needs time and experience to settle into his role, and once he settles, he is so formidable. He's nearing 100 games of time and experience, so I think "formidable" will be the new normal for him.

Negative - Rowy I'm Not Angry Anymore (Just Disappointed.) James Rowbottom

8

James Rowbottom

Age

23

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.0

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

2.2

2star

T

4.3

5star

CL

2.0

4star

D

14.6

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.6

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

3.4

4star

CL

2.5

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.2

4star

. Disclaimer: I recently finished rewatching the 2020 season and parts of the 2019 season. This kid is up to his eyeballs in ability. He is literally the exact kind of all-rounder our midfield is crying out for: he has a burst of accelaration away from congestion; he hits every ball and every contest at full pace; he throws his body into the action; he runs and carries; he is a hungry, raging bull for the pill at the coalface; he shows great awareness and vision when he has the ball; he breaks tackles and dances around opponents; he lays brilliant and clever tackles; and he is capable of some outstanding long field kicking. In one of the games Papley is interviewed and said that the then-teenage Rowbottom was such a leader that he was instructing Papley where to position himself. All of the above is not delusion, a myth, or fiction. It is evident in all the games he played and you can go back and watch them online if you don't believe me. So the question is: where the heck has any of those parts of Rowbottom gone? Because right now I genuinely don't think a single part of his game is firing, and he knows it, hence the general flat, uninspired and kinda bordering on demotivated way he's gone about it in recent weeks. It seems a shame that a player who by any measure should be in that conversation in the paragraph above ^^ is currently someone I want to be replaced by a 34 year old.

Question - Will the Real Leadership Group Please Stand Up? Rampe. Parker. JPK. Buddy. Lloyd. Cunningham. Have they been liabilities? Absolutely not. Have they helped us advance from top six side of last year to something better? Well, not yet. There have been some great individual performances in isolation: Parker's bag of five, Cunningham's job on Stengle, Buddy's 1,000th. But I don't believe any have put together a month of meaningful form. The frustrating part is that the two other leaders I haven't mentioned - Heeney & Mills - are doing their job and more. If things keep tracking this way, we might as well call the engraver and put Heeney's name on the Skilton medal already. And yet now that these two highly-rated talents are delivering on their long-awaited promise, their peers haven't come to the party often enough. I'm inclined to give them all a pass - Rampe is getting on, Parker's had murmurings of niggles, JPK's being played in a new and arguably unsuitable position, Lloyd's traditionally a slow-starter, etc etc. So it's not panic stations yet. But we'd be foolish to believe we could have a genuine crack at going deep into finals without this group rising to the level we know they can produce. And I feel like if they do, it will just take the rest - most of whom are already flying - with them.

 

[Kiama Chris]

If it is purely about winning Premierships. Then it is about making the finals and then winning finals.

There is a bit of luck involved in being injury free, in good form and winning close games at the right time of the season.

Last season we showed we could beat a lot of other top 8 sides during the season. And then lose a close sudden death game.

I think it is hard to plan to be a Premiership side. All you can do is try to play well in the home and away season and be top 4 or top 8. Then take your chances.

It is great to play well and win games early. But sometimes I think there is too much focus on looking like a Premiership winning side in April.

I think one (of many) thing that Horse is 100% correct about is to keep working HARD on the process and you'll get your results. Of course talent and good coaching and teamwork are all part of that process. That's what you can plan for.
I think those things get you into finals (luck helps too of course) but premierships seem to need that something extra.

 

[Kapers]

Negative - Rowy I'm Not Angry Anymore (Just Disappointed.) James Rowbottom. Disclaimer: I recently finished rewatching the 2020 season and parts of the 2019 season. This kid is up to his eyeballs in ability. He is literally the exact kind of all-rounder our midfield is crying out for.

I wonder if part of the reason he is being played in bad Form atm is because Horse knows if he hits his stride it'll be such a big bonus.

I would like to see him dropped, similar to McDonald, Blakey, and even Hayward, but I worry that Rowbottom does just enough to stay in the side. He still competes and tackles, but it's frustrating when we know how much more he could be.

I've come to agree that playing in the reserves is in no way a bad thing, and when we still have arguably the best contested ball winner still in the team we can give our young blokes a chance to regain confidence without losing much in the midfield.

 

[caesar88]

I wonder if part of the reason he is being played in bad Form atm is because Horse knows if he hits his stride it'll be such a big bonus.

I would like to see him dropped, similar to McDonald, Blakey, and even Hayward, but I worry that Rowbottom does just enough to stay in the side. He still competes and tackles, but it's frustrating when we know how much more he could be.

I've come to agree that playing in the reserves is in no way a bad thing, and when we still have arguably the best contested ball winner still in the team we can give our young blokes a chance to regain confidence without losing much in the midfield.

I'm not too sure. I thought that we would've moved past the stage where a kid could have a slump and Horse would keep the faith in him. We've got games to win and so he can't have the kind of patience he could have when we were rebuilding heavily in 19/20. We've seen with Stephens, Logan, Amartey... Horse ain't afraid to get ruthless. So it makes me think that Horse is reviewing Rowbottom's performances every week and liking them. And I honestly don't know how that can be the case. Even his tackle count, great as it is, is only so high because he rarely wants the ball more than his opponent these days.

The biggest concern though is just his aura, for lack of better words. He used to be such a tough but cool head. It felt like you were watching a veteran when he was only a teenager. He'd do team lifting things and play with such energy and competitiveness. Now it feels like I'm watching a nervous and frustrated kid. Too often he lets his opponent get to the ball first so he can tackle him instead of just wanting to get his hands on it himself. He approaches contests with too much hesitation instead of just cracking in with no regard for his safety. He runs with his back turned to the ball carrier way too often, like he has no interest in where the ball is going to end up.

It's not someone who is just playing poorly, but it's someone who doesn't even have his head in the game enough, so that's where it's so weird that Horse seems to be OK with him staying in the side. The vibe of lethargy and indifference is the total opposite of everything he was drafted for and, presumably, selected in the team for. So I really must be missing something that he's doing to continue earning Horse's faith each week.

 

[SwansProudly]

My frustration for 2022 is that we long bomb it into the (usually crowded) forward line.
Love to get back to that run and carry, "wave" we had in 2021.

 

[Kapers]

My frustration for 2022 is that we long bomb it into the (usually crowded) forward line.
Love to get back to that run and carry, "wave" we had in 2021.

Will be absolutely torn apart by Melbourne if we even so much as think of bombing it into our forward line.

 

[Punts]

Will be absolutely torn apart by Melbourne if we even so much as think of bombing it into our forward line.

Along with McGovern who is in elite form atm

 

[wills2g]

Almost every team in the league are long bombing it into 50 tbh

 

[Stencorp69]

My 3 word analysis - A young side.

Look at the Geelong game and then look at the bulldogs & Norf games.

1. Inconsistent week to week
2. Amazing energy - despite playing with no rhythm could have one the Bullies game in the last minute.
3. Unmatched young talent - stupid decisions and crazy individual efforts in the same game.
4. Winning games, just, that we should have romped in and winning games comfortably that you wouldn't pick.

The reality of finishing in the finals last year when we lose against bottom teams and beating tops teams is pretty normal with young sides - they have no fear or understanding that they are supposed to win against the top sides.

We could win the premiership this year just as likely as we could finish out of the 8, but I think there is some crazy potential of this group if they can gel and keep the crew together, but pretty much the frustration with the team this year will be down to maturity (or lack of) and it can certainly be hard as a supporter but imagine being the coach as well.

 

[WillHayward]

Almost every team in the league are long bombing it into 50 tbh

It's true
What we call 'bombing' they call it 'deep entries'.

Does annoy me though when it goes deep straight to a defender.

 

[caesar88]

Almost every team in the league are long bombing it into 50 tbh

So much this.

There's not a team in the comp doing much else besides bombing it. They deliver it short when the entry is there but with the way back lines are setting up, those opportunities are few and far between.

Melbourne bomb it as much as anyone and no it doesn't always work. Their difference is they have a midfield that is so strong and dominant that they give themselves so many opportunities that it's inevitable their bombing will pay off and turn into scores.

We have got to fix the midfield. That's where we're struggling to gain any ascendancy and having to rely on Heeney-esque goals out of nothing, rather than consistent entries that will put opposition back lines under pressure.

 

[Daniel B]

For what it's worth, Squiggle says we've gone backwards this year. It also has Melbourne leading, followed by daylight. Still, it's only April.

 

[Kirkswan]

My 3 word analysis - A young side.

Look at the Geelong game and then look at the bulldogs & Norf games.

1. Inconsistent week to week
2. Amazing energy - despite playing with no rhythm could have one the Bullies game in the last minute.
3. Unmatched young talent - stupid decisions and crazy individual efforts in the same game.
4. Winning games, just, that we should have romped in and winning games comfortably that you wouldn't pick.

The reality of finishing in the finals last year when we lose against bottom teams and beating tops teams is pretty normal with young sides - they have no fear or understanding that they are supposed to win against the top sides.

We could win the premiership this year just as likely as we could finish out of the 8, but I think there is some crazy potential of this group if they can gel and keep the crew together, but pretty much the frustration with the team this year will be down to maturity (or lack of) and it can certainly be hard as a supporter but imagine being the coach as well.

100% this... but I'm fairly confident we'll make the finals baring significant injuries, we're at that stage of our development.

Imo, this is going to be a seriously good team and they still have 18 game of development before they play finals. Horse and Co will have them learning every week, and moving forward. They (the players and coaches) have significant belief in this group's ability, and have been saying so since 2019/20.

Hang on to your hats and have faith! It's going to be a roller coaster, but we're going to give it a significant crack this year!!!

 

[Wolftone]

Almost every team in the league are long bombing it into 50 tbh

Just because everybody else is doing it is no excuse for poor game planning. Stop bombing. It is shite and gets picked off more than not.

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[Wolftone]

So much this.

There's not a team in the comp doing much else besides bombing it. They deliver it short when the entry is there but with the way back lines are setting up, those opportunities are few and far between.

Melbourne bomb it as much as anyone and no it doesn't always work. Their difference is they have a midfield that is so strong and dominant that they give themselves so many opportunities that it's inevitable their bombing will pay off and turn into scores.

We have got to fix the midfield. That's where we're struggling to gain any ascendancy and having to rely on Heeney-esque goals out of nothing, rather than consistent entries that will put opposition back lines under pressure.

Dees also have 2 key forwards at any time, a number 3 that is just freaky, in Fritch and two rucks who take big grabs and kick goals. If it comes to ground they have some of the best crumbers in the game.

We miss Paps because he crumbs so well. Benny was doing that in the second half last week. He actually turned the game. Him and Macca.

There is a difference between measured long kicks forward and bombs that just end up a huge scrap or in the hands of a defender. One give the forward a run at the ball the other is useless and should be banned. Those huge bombs are either chaos balls or easy pickings. I love the way Amartey always caresses a long kick and giving the forward a run at the ball. I think Blakey, Gulden, Campbell, Warner, Ollie, Rowie etc do this too. But I have a feeling they are being told to bomb big and long. This is an old style I thought we had gotten rid of. It is a Longmire fav. Last year he had the players setting the ball to the forward's advantange. This year it is a shit fight.

Our mids are not working hard enough bringing it out of defence. They are being picked off and then they just give in and the ball is kicked long. They must provide more run. The backs are also missing opportunities far too often too. So many times there have been players free but the back has either not seen them or ignored them. Maybe it is because they have instructions to kick to one side of the ground. That is often the case I think. But a free player is a free player and if you continue to kick out if defence only on one side it is no wonder we get picked off as we have so often this season. On the SCG they like to bring the ball out one side only from either end. This is a game plan thing and if you are inflexible in this you become totally predictable.

There are several players I would be considering this week to replace either injured players or players not performing.

Amartey: Was too good for Port. Murdered them.

McDonald: Same as Amartey. Between the two of them they kicked 75% of the reserves score.

Gould: He was good. Very good. Had one moment where he fended and got a free against. Crap free, great fend. But I suppose when your fend lifts the opponent 2 metres into the air and 3 metres back the umpires get precious. Controls the backs.

Roberts: He has put together 3 sensational weeks. His effort this week should earn him a spot in the 22.

Players who should be looking over their shoulder

Reid: Wasn't terrible but buggers up too many things. Field kicking to goal kicking to fumbling. He can still take a grab but not that often

Rowie: Yes he has not been his measured self. He was great the first two games. But I think he may be carrying some bruising. This causes you to second guess if you are sore already

Harry: Has had some bad weeks. Not great again. He always starts the season poorly.

Ladhams: His second half was OK. But his first half was abysmal. He gets his hands on the ball but where does it go? That's right, to the opposition. He is rarely touching it around the ground. He let Sherry and Goldie have a free run at everything mainly because he wasn't anywhere near them. Where the hell was he? When he got injured I was not certain it was not for the best. But he did redeem himself somewhat in the second half.

Will: Needs to maintain forward pressure. His forward pressure was poor again last week

Gulden: Two poor games. He is being targeted. Maybe a stint in the reserves to learn how to play a tight defender would be good.

JPK: It is mids or bust for Joey it seems

Honorable mentions, although they will never be dropped. Both Rampe and Lloyd were reasonably poor. They made terrible mistakes and seemed to be running around like chooks with their heads cut off.

The young guys won us the match on the weekend. They came good when needed. Heens and Blakey were quiet in the first 2.5 quarters. But improved the longer the game went. Macca was the star of the show. Mills, was greaf yet again. I think Bell, BF whipping boy blue ribbon was sensational. He did everything that a forward should do. He kicked goals but he defended so well. He won so many hard duels due to his 1% ers.





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[sthmelb_dimmies]

Thread title is triggering my ocd.

Please change to “Swans’”. Unless this whole thread is about one specific singular Swan

 

[Millky95]

Thread title is triggering my ocd.

Please change to “Swans’”. Unless this whole thread is about one specific singular Swan

"Swans'" would be correct

 

[Bonz]

My frustration for 2022 is that we long bomb it into the (usually crowded) forward line.
Love to get back to that run and carry, "wave" we had in 2021.

We do it in parts, issue is opposition are now flooding the corridor on us.