Bluemour Melting Pot XXV

[Aphrodite]

Continued here ...

Bluemour Melting Pot XXVI

As per the Bluemour File OP, this is a thread for discussing Carlton related rumours. http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-file.1085141/ Rumour posters should post their rumours in both threads for those that like just to read rumours and for those that like to have get lost in their...

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[FairKouta]

Pick 5 for trealor get stuffed. I’d do pick 5 and second rounder with collingwoods first rounder coming back to GC

 

[F_therest]

Pick 5 for trealor get stuffed. I’d do pick 5 and second rounder with collingwoods first rounder coming back to GC

If Collingwood are pushing him out for salary cap relief they can't expect much more than a pick in the teens IMO...somewhat similar to when Sydney pushed out Tom Mitchell and got pick 13.

 

[HBF]

So with Treloar maybe up for trade is he worth a look? Injury history worries me, but he can play.

No thanks.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

If it was easy to get great players with late picks everyone would be doing it. There's a reason the average games played drops the later the pick is.

The tables below paints a pretty good picture. Check out the three columns 'Career Average Games', 'Games 100+' and 'Picks Needed To Get A 200 Gamer'.

Early-Mid 2nd rounders (21-30) have an average games of 81.1, a 35% chance of getting to 100 games and statistically you've got to pick 7.6 of them to find a 200 gamer. Jump up one bracket and those numbers change significantly; 119.2, 48% & 3.7.

View attachment 986605

What we shouldn't do is completely abandon the top end of the draft for the next 5 years. Especially as list sizes appear to reduce slightly, we don't want to be taking on 5th rounder speculative picks on 2 year deals, give me quality over quantity.

We'll still trade assets for readymade players, but I'd think a good starting point strategy would be to aim for taking at least 3 top 30 picks every 2 years, with at least one of those being a 1st rounder. Keep topping up the bottom end of the list with talent so as the older players move on we've got the cattle coming through to replace them.

Don't do a Hawthorn/* where they've gone 3+ years without taking any top end kids and now have real bottom end list balance issues. I'm not discrediting Hawthorn for their successful years here at all, but their continued efforts to top up with senior players and neglect rejuvenating the list through the draft is a good part of why they're where they're at now.

I want us to rise up the ladder and be doing enough to stay up without needing to resort to another scorched earth rebuild after this 'run' is over. You want the ability to have one or two 'slightly down years' where you bring in extra kids and move on the most senior players, then return back up to the pointy end as the next wave comes on.

Great post, only thing I’m saying is that statistically if we trade out late firsts every year we are just as likely to get the same amount of games as we are drafting.

Look at Hawthorn or look at Geelong. Geelong did hit the draft early, I think they have taken 10 first rounders in the last 12 years but it is very likely none of those 10 will be playing in the prelim tomorrow night.
A player is a player it’s irrelevant where they come from, as our picks become later which is a simple fact of being a good side the balance changes where going to the draft doesn’t add anywhere near as much as it does when you are poor. As those statistics show even if we don’t trade and take all our first rounders to the draft for the next 5 years we might find 2-3 good players over a five year period. Maybe 1-2 very good players.
I’d much prefer to take 5 good players and get 5 plus years of footy out of them when we are contending then the 2-3 who probably won’t be hugely influential while we are contending but will be around for much longer. This is also assuming we aren’t trading for say 22-24 year olds where you only miss out on a couple of years of good football.
Sooner or later you are going to have to go to the draft (and should) simply because it’s the rules of the AFL but people talking about cores being built from the draft (Richmond, Hawthorn etc) they were done with top end picks. Hitting the draft with picks in the late teens hasn’t been proven successful at all from the best of my knowledge. Do we really think Hawthorn would be better off had they taken a few more picks in the teens with a 50/50 strike rate or do they have to bottom out? Sooner or later you either bottom out or you stay up by trading. I really don’t think it has been done any other way except for Geelong, who funnily enough would’ve been better off trading out of all the first rounds in the draft for over a decade.

 

[Aphrodite]

Treloar - No thanks.

 

[HBF]

Damian Barrett reading Bigfooty posts.

Sliding doors.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

They all do.

 

[Crippablues]

Treloar - No thanks.

If he's going to leave it would be Queensland, nothing to worry about

On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HBF]

Left = Hunter
Middle Hair = Heeney
Middle Face = Mitchell
Right = Merret

Sorted. Done.

Would still take Merrett from that list.

 

[Aphrodite]

If he's going to leave it would be Queensland, nothing to worry about

On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I am not worried.

 

[koutaaa]

I would happily pay next years 1st for saad and 7 for Treloar. We have plenty of young kids coming in, Kemp is essentially our first rounder this year also.
Get it done i say

 

[Doro]

Would still take Merrett from that list.

Eagerly awaiting Dodo's initial asking price for both of Saad and Merrett.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Eagerly awaiting Dodo's initial asking price for both of Saad and Merrett.

They might get 7 for them.

 

[Aphrodite]

I would happily pay next years 1st for saad and 7 for Treloar. We have plenty of young kids coming in, Kemp is essentially our first rounder this year also.
Get it done i say

Can't see it happening.

 

[Wickzki]

I would happily pay next years 1st for saad and 7 for Treloar. We have plenty of young kids coming in, Kemp is essentially our first rounder this year also.
Get it done i say

I have a gut feeling that next year's firsts will be overvalued by clubs.

• Less NGA, father/son, etc. top-end talent
• The kids from VIC and elsewhere are more likely to get an unhindered run than this year's talent

Therefore I think we could do better than Saad with that pick even if clubs feel like we'll be making finals next year.

 

[Premiership Quarter]

I'd be very surprised if we didn't have a serious look.

He is the exact player we need, exact. But the liklihood of a) Collingwood wanting to trade him and b) if they did him not going to Gold Coast would be extremely unlikely. It would be our two first rounders to start with. THis would make the Saad trade difficult but I would take Treloar over Saad anyday. Still think we could get all three but its simply dreaming.

 

[RoyalBlues]

Would still take Merrett from that list.

. . . quite probably, but he has demonstrated genuine interest in Carlton.

 

[DEliades]

Treloar is a jet and would compliment Crippa and Walshy perfectly if we were satisfied with his Hammy. He was a diehard carlton man too

 

[alfo]

. . . quite probably, but he has demonstrated genuine interest in Carlton.

Still the most unlikely to obtain though. Dodo trading Saad and Merrett to us seems almost impossible.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Treloar shaves his legs.
It's a no from me

 

[ferrisb]

If it was easy to get great players with late picks everyone would be doing it. There's a reason the average games played drops the later the pick is.

The tables below paints a pretty good picture. Check out the three columns 'Career Average Games', 'Games 100+' and 'Picks Needed To Get A 200 Gamer'.

Early-Mid 2nd rounders (21-30) have an average games of 81.1, a 35% chance of getting to 100 games and statistically you've got to pick 7.6 of them to find a 200 gamer. Jump up one bracket and those numbers change significantly; 119.2, 48% & 3.7.

View attachment 986605

What we shouldn't do is completely abandon the top end of the draft for the next 5 years. Especially as list sizes appear to reduce slightly, we don't want to be taking on 5th rounder speculative picks on 2 year deals, give me quality over quantity.

We'll still trade assets for readymade players, but I'd think a good starting point strategy would be to aim for taking at least 3 top 30 picks every 2 years, with at least one of those being a 1st rounder. Keep topping up the bottom end of the list with talent so as the older players move on we've got the cattle coming through to replace them.

Don't do a Hawthorn/* where they've gone 3+ years without taking any top end kids and now have real bottom end list balance issues. I'm not discrediting Hawthorn for their successful years here at all, but their continued efforts to top up with senior players and neglect rejuvenating the list through the draft is a good part of why they're where they're at now.

I want us to rise up the ladder and be doing enough to stay up without needing to resort to another scorched earth rebuild after this 'run' is over. You want the ability to have one or two 'slightly down years' where you bring in extra kids and move on the most senior players, then return back up to the pointy end as the next wave comes on.

I love stuff like that! Thanks for posting.

One thing to consider is that the stats for that (DraftGuru?) go back to 1981. The early years drafts were very hit and miss, so the returns from current-day draft picks is probably better than the tables above (I couldn't say by how much, but random guess would be ~20-25%).

 

[RoyalBlues]

Still the most unlikely to obtain though. Dodo trading Saad and Merrett to us seems almost impossible.

True. If it wasn’t the puzzle would just be Merrett, you could argue. He’s deceptively good.

 

[TheBlueCampaigner]

SEN reporting that Treloar is disappointed and feels he’s being pushed out. Apparently only interested in a Vic club if it happens. No interest in going back to GC.

 

[LFTWNG11]

Treloar is a jet and would compliment Crippa and Walshy perfectly if we were satisfied with his Hammy. He was a diehard carlton man too

Can't be that die-hard if he moved to the Pies. Injury-prone, do not want.

 

[BlueTongue]

So with Treloar maybe up for trade is he worth a look? Injury history worries me, but he can play.

I don't think there are many players out there who can regularly rack up 25+ disposals a game, yet hardly be noticed, but he's one. Pass.

 

[RoyalBlues]

Treloar is a jet and would compliment Crippa and Walshy perfectly if we were satisfied with his Hammy. He was a diehard carlton man too

A jet yes, but maybe an A380