Bluemour Melting Pot XXV

[Aphrodite]

Continued here ...

Bluemour Melting Pot XXVI

As per the Bluemour File OP, this is a thread for discussing Carlton related rumours. http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-file.1085141/ Rumour posters should post their rumours in both threads for those that like just to read rumours and for those that like to have get lost in their...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[HBF]

Oh that's a twist.. the AlbertThurgood twitter account doesn't exist now.

Good!
That guy should be utterly ashamed of what he did.

 

[3rd Grade Maggy]

Good!
That guy should be utterly ashamed of what he did.

Being an Essendon supporter? I would.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Pretty surprised to so many dismissing Treloar. He'd instantly be our second best mid, maybe third by the end of next year. Miles ahead of Setters and Co.

 

[big jilm]

SEN reporting that Treloar is disappointed and feels he’s being pushed out. Apparently only interested in a Vic club if it happens. No interest in going back to GC.

I wonder if Treloar to Melbourne could help unlock Clarry for us?
Something like:
Pies get our future 1st & Nev Jetta
Dees get Treloar & Pies future 2nd
We get Oliver

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Cryptic Friday

One amongst this mix of 4 could well be Blues-bound. It wouldn’t be clear until after the GF and trade time and it’s dependent on a key target or two not happening . . .

View attachment 986484

Hmm, no idea who any of them are supposed to be

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Doesn't matter if he loves the pies if they're the ones seeking the trade

There wont be a trade. Treloar and his partner will commute to see each other.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

If it was easy to get great players with late picks everyone would be doing it. There's a reason the average games played drops the later the pick is.

The tables below paints a pretty good picture. Check out the three columns 'Career Average Games', 'Games 100+' and 'Picks Needed To Get A 200 Gamer'.

Early-Mid 2nd rounders (21-30) have an average games of 81.1, a 35% chance of getting to 100 games and statistically you've got to pick 7.6 of them to find a 200 gamer. Jump up one bracket and those numbers change significantly; 119.2, 48% & 3.7.

View attachment 986605

What we shouldn't do is completely abandon the top end of the draft for the next 5 years. Especially as list sizes appear to reduce slightly, we don't want to be taking on 5th rounder speculative picks on 2 year deals, give me quality over quantity.

We'll still trade assets for readymade players, but I'd think a good starting point strategy would be to aim for taking at least 3 top 30 picks every 2 years, with at least one of those being a 1st rounder. Keep topping up the bottom end of the list with talent so as the older players move on we've got the cattle coming through to replace them.

Don't do a Hawthorn/* where they've gone 3+ years without taking any top end kids and now have real bottom end list balance issues. I'm not discrediting Hawthorn for their successful years here at all, but their continued efforts to top up with senior players and neglect rejuvenating the list through the draft is a good part of why they're where they're at now.

I want us to rise up the ladder and be doing enough to stay up without needing to resort to another scorched earth rebuild after this 'run' is over. You want the ability to have one or two 'slightly down years' where you bring in extra kids and move on the most senior players, then return back up to the pointy end as the next wave comes on.

Just in regards to the chances of players playing games v where they are drafted, I did a plot once which showed that the AFL draft points per pick drops off a lot sharper than does the likelihood of games played.
I guess this is due to the AFL points being based on assumed salaries for drafters (which is noted on their table).
So whilst the higher picks are naturally more likely to be better players, if you split X points into two picks you will likely get more total games return from the pair. Even more so if you get more total points value by doing the split.

 

[Blue and Blue]

I see its more and more obvious that everyone wants to join us.

Hence I am drafting a form all players can fill in to register interest and then Austin can filter through all the applications and decide who to accept based on best offers.

Players will be free to meet each other (virtually of course) and make counter offers. Saad for instance says to Merret. I am am telling Carlton I will play for $650k. Merret says ok I am telling Austin 600 so there.....and so on and so on. Hunter tells them both he can beat that .......Oliver even lower......Fyffe says I will pay them to let me play.

Bargaining power is finally there in full for the players.

 

[Mike D]

The incessant maneuvering of the trading period are much akin to a month long chess game. We're gonna lose a few pawns.

 

[BIuebagger]

I find it hard that they are going to let go of someone they have been heavily invested in and saw him as a key part of their midfield nucleus when recruiting him. I think apart from dealing him to GC due to personal reasons & having Pick 5 on the table, they should be keeping him at all costs. When Treloar is on, he is a bloody good player. If the rumour is true, I think the club will ask the question as it seems like we are leaving no stone unturned in regard to midfielders this trade period.

I think he will still be where he is come mid-November.

 

[Fabab]

Treloar can go and get fu**ed ,hope this turns nasty for mcguires mob.

 

[Aphrodite]

Tony 2 Phones ...

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

If Damo Barrett is now running with the Clayton Oliver to Carlton rumour

It means nothing. He is one of the worst, ambulance chasing journos going around

 

[Gethelred]

Pretty surprised to so many dismissing Treloar. He'd instantly be our second best mid, maybe third by the end of next year. Miles ahead of Setters and Co.

I agree.

But...

Treloar is good, but not great. His possessions very frequently are not the difference between winning and losing; he needs 35+ disposals to be a matchwinner. It isn't next year we need him for, either; we need a sophisticated an multifaceted midfield in 2022-26, and we need to not decrease in quality between now and then. Treloar if he was 3 years younger would be more than acceptable, but right now he's a prick of a combination of overpaid, 28 by the start of next season, injury prone, and not really that good.

It depends on cost. If he takes a hit on the contract he took from Collingwood, and he prioritizes a flag before money, then I'd be interested, age and injuries be damned. If he insists on a payday to go with his trade, nope. Go to North, mate.

 

[Matty411]

I mean, if Treloar wants to go - I would have the chat with him no doubt. But Oliver far ahead of him.

It was guesSEN though so not sure how much clout I'd put on the rumour. He may be disappointed that he's had no success at Pies though (after terribly misreading them as being a better shot than Tigers at a flag). Might want to jump ship to a stronger club (I still believe we're closer than Pies and coming hard) to chase one last good contract...

 

[Kramer1]

If we were to go after Treloar...and he's not my first choice...you could package something like 7 and 27 for Treloar and Pies first, and forward it for Saad.

Treloar at 10 or so.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Treloar can go and get fu**ed ,hope this turns nasty for mcguires mob.

Treloar is a good player, but I would hardly think we are a chance given we have our fingers in a lot of other pies.(pun unintended )

Jesus I am now starting to get excited about Clarry in Navy Blue.

 

[The Grover]

I find it hard that they are going to let go of someone they have been heavily invested in and saw him as a key part of their midfield nucleus when recruiting him. I think apart from dealing him to GC due to personal reasons & having Pick 5 on the table, they should be keeping him at all costs. When Treloar is on, he is a bloody good player. If the rumour is true, I think the club will ask the question as it seems like we are leaving no stone unturned in regard to midfielders this trade period.

I think he will still be where he is come mid-November.

Salary cap issues, Treloar back ended contract.

Pies doing the dirty on him, using the Qld wife thing as a smoke screen.

 

[SOSage Mcgovern]

Sydney have just delisted Stoddart, maibaum and rowles amongst a few others. Stoddart and rowles have pace and maibaum could be key defender depth, anyone have more knowledge on these three?

 

[StandByyourMan]

Re Oliver - I'm hearing the terms are the same but we are throwing in a hair straightener.

 

[Kruezing]

If we were to go after Treloar...and he's not my first choice...you could package something like 7 and 27 for Treloar and Pies first, and forward it for Saad.

Treloar at 10 or so.

I’d be using the pies pick for something else or the draft and give the * a future pick of sorts ...

 

[HARKER]

I hope we don't consider Treloar after most likely missing on Merrett/Oliver.
I now he's better than for players after Cripps, Walsh, Williams but once you take on one premium player, it's likely to preclude you from taking something better when it shows up.....even if it happens to be next year.
He'd also be 28 before getting his first game, for us. What does that matter? It can matter plenty when the length of contract has to come into consideration.

It's very brazen of us to be going hard for Oliver and I don't mind the approach because the fit is much better.
I still feel Merrett would make for a better fit still, but that may have to wait one year

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Tony 2 Phones ...

Oh, definitely not getting Oliver then

 

[Matty411]

Treloar is a good player, but I would hardly think we are a chance given we have our fingers in a lot of other pies.(pun unintended )

Jesus I am now starting to get excited about Clarry in Navy Blue.

Holster that hope, Elmer. Still a very low chance to eventuate.

Re Oliver - I'm hearing the terms are the same but we are throwing in a hair straightener.

I hear cars are the sealers these days. Should throw in a new Veloster.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Oooh. The fallout from this will be fun to see how it plays out