Bluemour Melting Pot XXV

[Aphrodite]

Continued here ...

Bluemour Melting Pot XXVI

As per the Bluemour File OP, this is a thread for discussing Carlton related rumours. http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-file.1085141/ Rumour posters should post their rumours in both threads for those that like just to read rumours and for those that like to have get lost in their...

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[Gavstar]

Agree - but I think there's going to be a range of opinions on what would constitute a pass.

He doesn't need to blow the competition open and poll Brownlow votes every game. He does need to make sure he's ticking the effort box every week...as long as he's doing that the development will continue organically.

I'd be happy if he reaches an Ed Curnow level rather than a Judd-like level and plays 150+ games for us. Ed took 4 years to get to the level didn't he?

 

[Just Kreuzing]

What is "defensive running" though? How much running you do when the opposition has the ball?

It's a nice enough number to look at, but the context is what seals it. There's a big difference between chasing down an opponent, doggedly sticking with your man to prevent him being used in transition...and running from one end to the other while the opposition dance their merry way through the middle.

I'd suggest that if Dow was dropped after two games with good "defensive running stats", then perhaps he was doing a lot of Option C, and not enough of Option A or B.

Problem is when a young player like Dow is in the midfield mix with notoriously poor defensive minded players such as Murphy, Cripps etc he is expected to cover for those players deficiencies which can be bloody tough.

If Dow can develop his skill set so he can hurt more the other way he will improve his opportunities at senior level.

 

[katmanblue]

I can't see Betts in our best 22.

Nor in our best 40

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[Macca43]

Yep - this far out there's a lot of options. I'm hoping preseason answers a few...but not too many. Would be fantastic to genuinely have 30+ blokes vying for senior spots on merit.

The other consideration for the forward/ruck mix is whether we give Pittonet decent ruck minutes, and then potentially run TDK as the third forward/relief ruck. I'm not sure he'll be able to play out the year as the main ruckman, so it might be a good compromise. On that subject, Pittonet might not be able to hold his form for a full season either.

Pitt taking the main ruck duties in 2/3 of games, with TDK forward. When Pitt gets rested, TDK steps up for main duties. and Harry provides the chop out.

If we do that though, I don't think we can play Gov OR Levi forward except in the games where Pittonet is out.

I was a bit underwhelmed with TDK forward this year TBH, another pre-season should help him get stringer and better hold his marks but he seemed to look better when we was given the number 1 ruck role, it seemed to suit his athletic gifts more and gave him a bit more freedom.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Dow puts the jets on

Carlton's Paddy Dow breaks away from the pack to slot a classy goal on the run

www.afl.com.au

I think we can all agree that even though some of us might seem harsh on Dow ultimately we all just want to see him out there doing more of this.

Hope he remains at the club, Hublife environment would be pretty tough on injured and out of form players, especially for young players who may just need their family & friends around at times when feeling down or low on confidence.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

I'd be happy if he reaches an Ed Curnow level rather than a Judd-like level and plays 150+ games for us. Ed took 4 years to get to the level didn't he?

Ed took about 4 clubs.....
Geelong Falcons, Adelaide Crows, Box Hill Hawks and Carlton.....

 

[skadoosh]

Generally the case, but there will always be exceptions.

Christian Petracca probably isn't a bad comparison - has taken 6 years to build up the tank to dominate in the midfield. Benefit for him was he was a semi-capable forward during that apprenticeship. Dow doesn't have that versatility.

Dangerfield was about Year 5 of his career as well. Same story as Petracca, he had the ability to play as a forward during that time.

My issues with Dow have nothing to do with ability. He's shown ability, that shouldn't be questioned. The sticking point is his willingness and ability to bust a gut for his team, not just on the rare occasion he gets a clean run with the ball.

Hard to judge why he looked so flat when he played this year. Maybe it was related to his injury issues? If so, he shouldn't have been selected. From a very simplistic outside perspective though - he didn't look like he was playing for the jumper, for his teammates, or for his spot in the side. I don't care which of the three is greater motivation for him, but he needs to find out which one and channel it.

Don't care if he makes the odd mistake, or fluffs the odd kick - every player does. I just want to feel that, when the final siren has gone, he wasn't a passenger.

Not calling you out specifically, but would like to address the general notion to call out Dangerfield as as poor midfield kick, Petracca as someone who has only just showed he has it after years in the system. We need to remember these 1-2 names who are always brought up are 1 or 2 out of 600-odd AFL players. These guys are the outliers, not the standard, average AFL player you can compare them too. Yes, there's a chance they may end up like x, y or z player, but the odds are that they won't.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

Far from convinced about Dow .... but 2021 should be his last chance

For example, Trent Sporn was on our list for years.
I think Dow has him covered in talent by a country mile and then some.
In the past we have tended to hold onto some players probably far too long due being below average on so many facets of being a successful AFL club.
If we don't use Dow for part of a BIG trade we need to give him all the time we can.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

For example, Trent Sporn was on our list for years.
I think Dow has him covered in talent by a country mile and then some.
In the past we have tended to hold onto some players probably far too long due being below average on so many facets of being a successful AFL club.
If we don't use Dow for part of a BIG trade we need to give him all the time we can.

Well look at someone like Luke Livingston as well, we gave him 5 seasons on the list, simply because he was a Pick 4. In that time only played 46 games, Dow is almost at that number having only been on the list 3 years (and despite playing very few this year).

 

[HBF]

Still can't believe people are calling Dow a bust

Progress does not equal linear

He just doesn't do the basics well.
There are so many issues with his game which I have said in here previously.

 

[Coona Blues]

I am happy with our trade haul to date and do not believe we are in need of another bull midfielder as so many seem to think. We have Crippa,
a 3/4 developed Setterfield, a seemingly ceilingless Walsh, Ed Curnow who just makes us a better team with his two way running and work rate
(I am often astounded at the disdain many show for his disposal, the bloke is an absolute freak at getting the ball to hand or particularly foot, his
core strength is something to behold), then we are adding the pace and precision of Williams, the very thing we are lacking. That is five "front line"
mids, three or four who will clearly rotate significantly through a wing. Murphy still in the mix for at least cameos (although we must move past his poor defensive effort). The cohesiveness of our midfield needs work, but like many, I believe this
to be a structural/coaching issue, more than personnel.

Dow is so bloody confusing and certainly splits this board. His potential is very high, however there are too many flaws which don't seem to be on
the improve judging by our limited exposure this year. I would be afraid of what I could do elsewhere, but would have no issue if our list management
team "cashed him in" if a suitor was prepared to pay apparent overs on exposed form. I remain bullish on Stocker, but would love some clarity on his
absence from the team and subsequently the hub. Combative, tough, dual sided high end disposal, a footballer, I am having trouble reading his absence
from the 22. Then we have Kemp, who projects as a star. (those wanting us to trade up big need to consider he will be out of contract soon and if plays
to potential will require a decent upgrade) Philp and Ramsay are both highly promising young midfielders. Kennedy is a proven mid when given opportunity,
SPS consigned to another role, but certainly has midfield credentials if he improves his tank and gets his body to hold up. Martin is better than a pinch hitter and we have JSOS, almost untapped in the midfield. Why do so many want to max out our player payments for the best available high profile mid?

If we are to look at another acquisition surely it is a forward type. Richmond would seem to be the most obvious source. Higgins, Aarts and Stack is a good
group to choose from. Higgins can go in to the midfield, but has sufficient X factor around the big sticks to be a worthy target. Aarts is not a star by any
means, but high pressure type who can hit the scoreboard. We have some decent forward options with Fisher, Gibbons and Cuningham, but all three are
questionable as to their long term suitability as dedicated forwards. Stack is the big "if" (I could use an old saying involving a woodpile, which springs to mind, but I am from another era and would be scorned on here). He showed when given the opportunity forward that he is well up to the role, as well as being able
to play small defence, wing or even in the guts. As to his indiscretions, those I am aware of wreak of immaturity, we have perhaps the best indigenous mentor
in the league. Stack reveres Eddie, isn't this right up his alley and surely worth a gamble. Stack's work ethic (in season) is beyond question. If available, I
would be in favour of taking him on.

I am not big on trading out any of our talent, particularly young ones. Dow reportedly has had interest from Richmond and Kennedy and JSOS reportedly have
suitors. I would not push any out the door as have regard for all, but if they are not in the front of Teague's forward planning, it would be best for all if they
moved on. They are too bloody good to languish in the twos. Unlike some, I support the players as well as the club.

 

[Benaly28]

I’d say Devin Smith might be next to leave bombers.Once again another bullet dodged.


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[Weiterbot23]

I feel like Dows inability to kick has shattered his confidence, to the point where he subconsciously doesn't want the ball.

There was a play were he had the ball in the middle of the ground and he decelerated and just did this careful chip straight to the opposition.

The pressure and expectation of being a pick 3 at a big club like Carlton would not be good for your mindset, plus you have guys like Cotrell getting games above you.

Like a poor performing stock I don't think we will get good value on him at the moment, best to pop him in the bottom drawer and let him develop and rediscover some confidence in the VFL next year. Hopefully we will be winning so there will be no external pressure on him or the club. Pretty sure he has signed to the end of 2022, so has time to give himself the best chance at a good career.

The problem is that I believe he needs to be a starting on baller or not in the team at all.

 

[Metalcrusher]

I feel like Dows inability to kick has shattered his confidence, to the point where he subconsciously doesn't want the ball.

There was a play were he had the ball in the middle of the ground and he decelerated and just did this careful chip straight to the opposition.

The pressure and expectation of being a pick 3 at a big club like Carlton would not be good for your mindset, plus you have guys like Cotrell getting games above you.

Like a poor performing stock I don't think we will get good value on him at the moment, best to pop him in the bottom drawer and let him develop and rediscover some confidence in the VFL next year. Hopefully we will be winning so there will be no external pressure on him or the club. Pretty sure he has signed to the end of 2022, so has time to give himself the best chance at a good career.

The problem is that I believe he needs to be a starting on baller or not in the team at all.

I don't think Dow is a write off just yet, the lack of reserves this year has not helped LOB/Dow etc at all.

 

[agro]

I didn’t seem to worry TDK.

 

[Weiterbot23]

I don't think Dow is a write off just yet, the lack of reserves this year has not helped LOB/Dow etc at all.

Starting to cop it from annoying St Kilda supporters at work about Dow over Hunter Clark

 

[mjonc43]

Starting to cop it from annoying St Kilda supporters at work about Dow over Hunter Clark

Was Clark injured all of 2020? Dow was, the couple of games he played he carried injury too, hence missed the rest of the year.


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[Aphrodite]

Dud

You asked the question, I gave an example.

Name a big fish thats went to another club and won a flag. It doesn't always eventuate

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

On Dow, I think he is a failed selection only due to LDU and Cerra coming in behind him. We are crying out for that type of mid, classy inside and out and very productive. Cerra in particular screams Carlton.

I do not think he’s a bust at this stage and I think he projects as a decent B grade type. Someone compared him to Nathan Foley a few months ago and I think that fits. Not keen to write him off yet but if we are being honest with ourselves he’s not going to be the elite A grader we originally had in mind. It is what it is, TDK will make up for it quite easily anyway.

 

[ctwenty1]

Starting to cop it from annoying St Kilda supporters at work about Dow over Hunter Clark

Remind them they could have had two of Judd, hodge or ball if they had played their cards right in the prior season. You may then get accused of being a typical Carlton “tanker” but your rebuttal should be that with two of those in their side they would have won multiple premierships to add to the ONE they have now.That should shut them up.

 

[Arr0w]

I can't believe you were saying Jaidyn Stephenson is no good and not worth chasing because teams have "worked him out", (70 goals from 45 games), yet somehow Dow is not a bust because progress does not equal linear?

Pretty funny

Why have I said Stephenson is a bust?

Do you judge the long term projection of a player based on what he did as a draftee and or first couple of years in the system?

What would you have said of Lewis Taylor after his Rising Star, or Weitering when he had some teething issues?

Yet you are calling Dow a bust

 

[Arr0w]

He just doesn't do the basics well.
There are so many issues with his game which I have said in here previously.

And many of us have shared reasons for his current situation

 

[Matty411]

Yeah I loved Cerra in his draft year, too. But we can't change the past and #DowIsStillOurMan

He's still only 20 and has a huge rocket up him to get cracking in the offseason, otherwise he would have to know his time in Navy Blue would be on borrowed time. Double time for LOB.

Let's see how he tracks over the offseason and in 2021 before casting aspersions on him being a 'bust'.

 

[ferrisb]

There aren't very many Cyrils.

But there are lots of Riolis...

Or in Dean's case, holy moly that's a lot of Rioli...

 

[All Australian]

100% this.

Like I said in an earlier post, I look forward to McGovern proving people on this forum wrong next season and having a great year. When all groups are able to train together and get some kind of continuity in their work we will see quite a few different looking players next season.

People also seem to neglect the fact that no club has 44 best 22 players. Dow, O'Brien etc are capable but didn't get any real work in over 2020. Let's see how 2021 treats us. Where will you all be when McGovern kicks 3 and has 15 touches in a final next year?

I’ll be excited that the Northern Blues made the finals