Bluemour Melting Pot XXVI

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As per the Bluemour File OP, this is a thread for discussing Carlton related rumours.
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-file.1085141/

Rumour posters should post their rumours in both threads for those that like just to read rumours and for those that like to have get lost in their rumour files.

Remember ... #Bluemour





Continued from here ...

Bluemour Melting Pot XXV

Continued here ... https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-melting-pot-xxvi.1250444/
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Continued here:

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Bluemour Melting Pot XXVII

As per the Bluemour File OP, this is a thread for discussing Carlton related rumours. http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-file.1085141/ Rumour posters should post their rumours in both threads for those that like just to read rumours and for those that like to have get lost in their...
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carlton_99 said:
Why don't we wait and see if somethings coming back with 8. Future 2nd and I think it would be a pretty good deal
Click to expand...

I also think Pick 8 + a Second coming back seems reasonable. I also would prefer EFC's 2nd next year than this year 2nd pick as I think they could finish even lower. A seconds not going to be that exciting with when they'll have 6,7 & 8.

Its a great year for them to get lots of first round picks as the draft is more a lottery this year than ever. Be a shame if they picked 3 duds
 
FWIW I agree that 8 going to * (even with something coming back) just doesn’t sit right.
I am aware that we need to pay a fair price, but splitting 8 into 2 picks in the teens and using one of them just feels fair for all.
I agree with others that if we cave and pay 8 to * we will be seen as a pushover.
I want Saad at the club, but there’s a point where you call * on their bluff. Cannot let Dodo treat us like idiots.
 

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So...

8 and 50

For Saad and future 2nd.

We can then shop that around to see what we can sort.

Clubs do like next year's draft a LOT more

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Austin should arrive at his very first meeting with DontDoro on Wednesday with a National Draft Application form signed by Saad, and then say "we'll be waiting for you to bring an offer that's worth us NOT using this document". And then walk out.
 
Funny thing is pick8 & player was never realistic from their end a complete smokescreen for getting what they truely wanted was pick8 all along, for me that’s too high for him directly even with a later pick coming back always thought his value was about pick15 would be great if we could manage too split the pick somehow, interesting what we end up doing...
 
I kinda see where forty3 is coming from. If we can get a 2nd coming back in the saad deal and package that and another 2nd for 14 then we could combine that with a future first and maybe a player for oliver (If dees are willing to move him on).
 
I actually take my hat off to Essendone - they have calculated the AFL's interest brilliantly in working with Brisbane to get the compensation pick they required for Daniher. For all the criticism of Essendone - they have halved their 'losses' for Daniher and are now busy mucking around with Carlton ( again) whilst I am sure going about their business with players ( and their managers) who actually dont give a toss about Esendone's so called bad faith reputation.

So much for 'needing' to do the right thing by players nominating - what a load of crapola.

All the hallmarks of sanctioned trade tampering AFL looks after Brisbane and Essendone wins because of this - we could learn a few lessons from Essendone.

I hope Carlton is using pick8 as part of a bigger deal for other needs - best response to Essendone is to carry on with other business.
 
Forty3 said:
There has been a lot of work done by Carlton, Saad and his management team to talk sense into the Saad deal. They’ve talked it down from 8 + (one of our under 22 year old first rounders) to working around us getting some change from Pick 8.
It’s at a tricky impasse at the moment. Daniher getting band 1 compo means any offer we make to split our pick 8 with Geelong or Brisbane can now be trumped by Essendon. The club is acutely aware of how negotiations went with Papley and Martin last year, and there is growing sentiment that when you convince a player to come, you need to make sure it happens smoothly, otherwise there are fears players and managers won’t want to work with us in the future.
As it stands the deal will have pick 8 going to the bombers with change yet to be agreed upon.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info 43

The way I see it, the worst case scenario for us, is we pick up Saad via the National Draft. We could use pick 8 if absolutely necessary, but there will be opportunities for us to slide back for change or improve our second rounder via live trading on the night. This is not really a bad outcome for us at all.

On the other side of the coin, the risk for * is far greater. They would get ZERO compensation if we walk Saad through the draft. Their only leverage is to threaten re-drafting him with pick 6 or 7, which is hardly likely. Plus they desperately need picks to satisfy GWS and Bulldogs.

So for mine, the pressure is all on *, not us.
 
* can take what we deem a reasonable offer.

Otherwise, old mate PSD, and they get the GCS treatment.

Front end his contract....there’s no way in hell * would match it, re drafting him would put him in the highest paid players, which would go down like a tepid cup of rat pooh.
 
Forty3 said:
Seems to be a bit of misunderstanding of my previous comment. The club had no intention of getting ‘bent over’. The conversations surround what is a break even point from our perspective that we are happy with the levels we’ve paid. Obviously there is a massive discrepancy on here as to what Saads worth is. Most people internally rate him as a mid-late first rounder. Our pick 8 will be minimum pick 10, potentially 11 come draft night. If we split with Brisbane, pick 17 will be mid 20s. No matter what we think here, this will not get the deal done. So it comes down to at what point are you jeopardizing the improvement of the team, to win the trade.
If we pay 8 and third rounder for Saad and a 2nd, that is good value, as the second is a pick we can use in trade or draft.
If we don’t want to pay more than 8 and get Saad and a 3rd. Are we likely to use the 3rd round pick or will we be able to trade it for good return? With list sizes likely dropping by 2 and an incredibly compromised draft, probably not.
We can threaten the PSD or ND all we want, but realistically, trading in such poor faith hurts our brand more than many imagine. The worst part of this is the weeks and weeks of subconsciously devaluing Saad by many of our supporter base who are transfixed on winning a trade battle with Dodo rather than improving our side.
As I said at the start, the clubs not just going to get bent over for the sake of it, but we will not be walking away from the trade.
Click to expand...
Don’t really care that pick 8 might be closer to 11 after matched bids, we were not getting those players anyway. It is still the 8th live bid in the draft for players that are actually available. Bidding only forces clubs to pay a reasonable price, doesn’t effect who we can get unless they don’t match a bid.

Would rather we swap a couple of seconds for a late first and offer that to *

There is better value for us losing two seconds and keeping our first. Almost no value in losing pick 8 and getting a third rounder back.
 

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Own The Future said:
FWIW I agree that 8 going to * (even with something coming back) just doesn’t sit right.
I am aware that we need to pay a fair price, but splitting 8 into 2 picks in the teens and using one of them just feels fair for all.
I agree with others that if we cave and pay 8 to * we will be seen as a pushover.
I want Saad at the club, but there’s a point where you call * on their bluff. Cannot let Dodo treat us like idiots.
Click to expand...
Which is better for us, pick 18 (Geelong’s) in this draft or Essendon’s second pick next year? I think I’d prefer next years draft.
 
Forty3 said:
Seems to be a bit of misunderstanding of my previous comment. The club had no intention of getting ‘bent over’. The conversations surround what is a break even point from our perspective that we are happy with the levels we’ve paid. Obviously there is a massive discrepancy on here as to what Saads worth is. Most people internally rate him as a mid-late first rounder. Our pick 8 will be minimum pick 10, potentially 11 come draft night. If we split with Brisbane, pick 17 will be mid 20s. No matter what we think here, this will not get the deal done. So it comes down to at what point are you jeopardizing the improvement of the team, to win the trade.
If we pay 8 and third rounder for Saad and a 2nd, that is good value, as the second is a pick we can use in trade or draft.
If we don’t want to pay more than 8 and get Saad and a 3rd. Are we likely to use the 3rd round pick or will we be able to trade it for good return? With list sizes likely dropping by 2 and an incredibly compromised draft, probably not.
We can threaten the PSD or ND all we want, but realistically, trading in such poor faith hurts our brand more than many imagine. The worst part of this is the weeks and weeks of subconsciously devaluing Saad by many of our supporter base who are transfixed on winning a trade battle with Dodo rather than improving our side.
As I said at the start, the clubs not just going to get bent over for the sake of it, but we will not be walking away from the trade.
Click to expand...

There’s a point where you are getting bent over and reading above that’s absolutely what is happening for an out of contract hbf’er

Just a reminder, 3 years ago, he was contracted and traded into the bombers for a “future” second rounder which ended up being pick 35. When you factor in it’s a future pick it automatically devalues straight away.

Statistically, he’s only slightly better than he was then playing in a shitter team. He’s now 3 years older, been playing a key position in a bombers team that absolutely was used as a main part of their game plan before this year...fast transition play from the backline. It’s not something he wasn’t doing at GC but it wasn’t a key underlined part of their game plan.
What was SOS’s ceiling at the time? Clearly not close enough to go back with a better offer..

If the club does what you’re suggesting then we’ve folded and been bent over and I for one will be livid.


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If we're happily handing over our biggest trade assets for out of contract players (who probably weren't worth that much when contracted) just to look nice, then we're ****ing screwed.

It's both hilarious and sad that while we sit by hoping everyone likes us, the top clubs will continue making 'ruthless but fair' deals without incident. I guarantee that this trade period while we pat ourselves on the back for being "good to do business with" other clubs will be making deals that will have our jaws dropping.

It cracks me up that it's automatically assumed that if we stood our ground and ended up missing out that we'd be the laughing stock, and not * for making unreasonable, pigheaded demands and losing one of their best players for nothing. It's as much a reflection of our club's demure attitude as it is of da predetermined meedya narrative, and now it's infecting our supporters.

How about WE control the ****ing narrative for once?? We deal in good faith, but won't bow down to insulting demands, and aren't afraid to cut our losses if need be. WTF is wrong with that??

Gold Coast last year weren't reasonable and wouldn't accept our fair offer for an uncontracted player, but in the interests of the football club we had to hope he would be available to us in the PSD. Yet we've allowed that to become "Carlton low-balled Gold Coast and are trying to do it again".

Case in point, St Kilda last year. Peter Bell was making stupid demands re: Hill, and instead of bowing to it they made other deals to give Bell less floor to stand on, ultimately winning out for far less than what was demanded. Were they criticised for being unreasonable? **** no, they were praised to high heaven, and other clubs know not to **** around when dealing with them.

But no, let's let everyone walk all over us because like moths to the flame, it will attract others to deal with us and do the very same.
 
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Everyone in the media is touting pick 8 is fair value and should be traded but watch the 180 turn they take when it happens and all of a sudden we over paid. My guess is within 30 minutes of paying it the article will be written. I reckon within 5 minutes Kane cornes will be talking shit.
 
Forty3 said:
As I said at the start, the clubs not just going to get bent over for the sake of it, but we will not be walking away from the trade.
Click to expand...

This is really alarming tbh.

I can imagine the pressure on Austin, trying to broker his first deal for his old man's former club after replacing a club legend as list manager.

The safe thing to do is to take Saad and a future second for Pick 8. The right thing to do is trade Pick 8 and find a replacement selection which properly matches Saad's value, and have another strategy if things go pear shaped.

The players we will be targeting next year (Merrett, Kelly) will be FA's, who wont require a trade so there's far less impact if nothing comes of this trade. We also know the Papley and Martin deals last year didn't come about through any wrongdoing on our part, so we need to have the courage of convictions once again and tell Dodoro to GAGF.
 
BoundbyKreuze said:
Everyone in the media is touting pick 8 is fair value and should be traded but watch the 180 turn they take when it happens and all of a sudden we over paid. My guess is within 30 minutes of paying it the article will be written. I reckon within 5 minutes Kane cornes will be talking sh*t.
Click to expand...

Haha, no doubt. You can see it now.

“Carlton C+ Overpaid for both Williams and Saad, their two primary targets that make them tons faster and more dangerous.“
 
Forty3 said:
Seems to be a bit of misunderstanding of my previous comment. The club had no intention of getting ‘bent over’. The conversations surround what is a break even point from our perspective that we are happy with the levels we’ve paid. Obviously there is a massive discrepancy on here as to what Saads worth is. Most people internally rate him as a mid-late first rounder. Our pick 8 will be minimum pick 10, potentially 11 come draft night. If we split with Brisbane, pick 17 will be mid 20s. No matter what we think here, this will not get the deal done. So it comes down to at what point are you jeopardizing the improvement of the team, to win the trade.
If we pay 8 and third rounder for Saad and a 2nd, that is good value, as the second is a pick we can use in trade or draft.
If we don’t want to pay more than 8 and get Saad and a 3rd. Are we likely to use the 3rd round pick or will we be able to trade it for good return? With list sizes likely dropping by 2 and an incredibly compromised draft, probably not.
We can threaten the PSD or ND all we want, but realistically, trading in such poor faith hurts our brand more than many imagine. The worst part of this is the weeks and weeks of subconsciously devaluing Saad by many of our supporter base who are transfixed on winning a trade battle with Dodo rather than improving our side.
As I said at the start, the clubs not just going to get bent over for the sake of it, but we will not be walking away from the trade.
Click to expand...
And I would say most of our forum members here also rate him a mid-late first rounder and would be ok to let him go for that equivalent.
 
Forty3 said:
Seems to be a bit of misunderstanding of my previous comment. The club had no intention of getting ‘bent over’. The conversations surround what is a break even point from our perspective that we are happy with the levels we’ve paid. Obviously there is a massive discrepancy on here as to what Saads worth is. Most people internally rate him as a mid-late first rounder. Our pick 8 will be minimum pick 10, potentially 11 come draft night. If we split with Brisbane, pick 17 will be mid 20s. No matter what we think here, this will not get the deal done. So it comes down to at what point are you jeopardizing the improvement of the team, to win the trade.
If we pay 8 and third rounder for Saad and a 2nd, that is good value, as the second is a pick we can use in trade or draft.
If we don’t want to pay more than 8 and get Saad and a 3rd. Are we likely to use the 3rd round pick or will we be able to trade it for good return? With list sizes likely dropping by 2 and an incredibly compromised draft, probably not.
We can threaten the PSD or ND all we want, but realistically, trading in such poor faith hurts our brand more than many imagine. The worst part of this is the weeks and weeks of subconsciously devaluing Saad by many of our supporter base who are transfixed on winning a trade battle with Dodo rather than improving our side.
As I said at the start, the clubs not just going to get bent over for the sake of it, but we will not be walking away from the trade.
Click to expand...
of course we shouldn’t and won’t walk away from the trade but handing over pick 8 is being bent over. Surely if we received a second back we wouldn’t also be handing over a 3rd rounder.
 
Forty3 said:
Seems to be a bit of misunderstanding of my previous comment. The club had no intention of getting ‘bent over’. The conversations surround what is a break even point from our perspective that we are happy with the levels we’ve paid. Obviously there is a massive discrepancy on here as to what Saads worth is. Most people internally rate him as a mid-late first rounder. Our pick 8 will be minimum pick 10, potentially 11 come draft night. If we split with Brisbane, pick 17 will be mid 20s. No matter what we think here, this will not get the deal done. So it comes down to at what point are you jeopardizing the improvement of the team, to win the trade.
If we pay 8 and third rounder for Saad and a 2nd, that is good value, as the second is a pick we can use in trade or draft.
If we don’t want to pay more than 8 and get Saad and a 3rd. Are we likely to use the 3rd round pick or will we be able to trade it for good return? With list sizes likely dropping by 2 and an incredibly compromised draft, probably not.
We can threaten the PSD or ND all we want, but realistically, trading in such poor faith hurts our brand more than many imagine. The worst part of this is the weeks and weeks of subconsciously devaluing Saad by many of our supporter base who are transfixed on winning a trade battle with Dodo rather than improving our side.
As I said at the start, the clubs not just going to get bent over for the sake of it, but we will not be walking away from the trade.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info and agree totally. But just considering this movement of pick 8 - does it mean it will likely just be Saad and Williams this period?
 
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