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Earls Smother said:
To quote you:

"Last time now, you are still wanting to continue this debate, based on the difference of 1 H&A win, when comparing our predictions"

We are coming off a 50% higher base than Richmond. 12 wins against their 8 in 2016.

There is also an extra game. If they had not won a 16th game in a 23 game season, they would have finished 5th or 6th (3 sides 1 win behind them) and history would be different.
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Surely you are not suggesting progression is linear or the past dictates the future?

We also have different rules, such as 6 6 6, stand rule, etc.

So we differ not only when our prime years start, but also the number of minimum wins we could achieve.

Not many clubs achieve 17 win seasons (minus the extra game)
 
thylacine60 said:
you've plucked some of our fringe players out here but let charlie off the hook.......you are right in your detailing of the horrors of those games but I always struggle to point the finger so specifically - I'm tipping every player made a mistake that resulted in us falling short in the end........melksham, kill me
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I quote below the two points I (tried to make) specifically in reference to TODN's quote...

1. Extremely poor execution in the forward 50 at crucial times- depriving the team of scoreboard pressure - or the killing blows to the opposition; and
2. Extremely poor team discipline and execution when it comes to closing out games in the last few minutes - protecting a lead.

the named players were just examples- Charlie and Harry have both been given smacks in previous posts on the same/similar topic by me- but really Voss has to fix the HFF and wings - they have been the root cause of a lot of issues that opposition have exploited.
 
JustaBattler said:
I quote below the two points I (tried to make) specifically in reference to TODN's quote...

1. Extremely poor execution in the forward 50 at crucial times- depriving the team of scoreboard pressure - or the killing blows to the opposition; and
2. Extremely poor team discipline and execution when it comes to closing out games in the last few minutes - protecting a lead.

the named players were just examples- Charlie and Harry have both been given smacks in previous posts on the same/similar topic by me- but really Voss has to fix the HFF and wings - they have been the root cause of a lot of issues that opposition have exploited.
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Spot on JB.
 

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Sammy Walsh relaxing at home after his 32 possession, 3 goal, BOG performance in the Blues 38 point win over Richmond, Round 1, 2023.

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Earls Smother said:
What, in your opinion is the prime age bracket? I don't want to appear contrary just for the sake of debating ad nauseum, but it is often said 23-28 is the prime years for a footballer. At 23 you are 5 years into your career.

We will have 28 players in that bracket next season (and that excludes Doc and Walsh). That says we are smack bang in the middle of our prime. We have entered the early phase already - it's just that things have gone wrong, causing us to under perform. For comparison, Melbourne had 19 players in that age bracket in 2021. Geelong had just 13 this year, and really must be seen as a bit of an anomaly.

Not many clubs can get 28 players in that 23-28 age grouping. The natural course of drafting, given a few misses, probably gets you 18-20 over that 6 year period. We have done really well with our age demographic, so it comes down to "are they good enough" now.

It is interesting comparing the youth that Dees and Cats added in their flag years. Melbourne had 6 players 21 and under (7 if you count sub Jordon) play in the 2021 GF. Geelong had just 2 this year - SDK and Holmes (picked, but withdrew late). We don't know where we will sit with 21 and unders (only Durdin and Motlop semi established at this stage) but we will likely be somewhere between the two.

I can't see on what basis we are not seriously in contention to win it this year? Finals experience could hurt us at the business end, but everything else points to being a genuine chance to win it. Unless we are simply not good enough, then "prime" or not is irrelevant.
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2022 our team stats were top 4....kudos to Voss for training them hard and it has to be noted their work rate was above average ,much higher than the 9 th place finish

Carlton...could/should have made the 8 this year.....it wont make a huge diff tho

with.Voss/Hansen/Russle driving the main group we could see a similar solid output for 2023...hopefully with some belief and yes luck
Luck with less injuries...better draw,better schedule..better support from fans etc

i think it wont be an easy run and a flag?...more like a top 6 and couple finals wins and attack in 2024 for top 4 and a go at a possible flag

i think the club still has the stigma of the nasty past 20 years of dismal output....it will be brushed away slowly with solid years ...

i actually think Carlton needs a fews years in the top eight and to set up for a long stay...i dont want a quick flag i prefer a competiitive Blues again all of the time and a flag will come...
 
COBALT BLUE said:
2022 our team stats were top 4....kudos to Voss for training them hard and it has to be noted their work rate was above average ,much higher than the 9 th place finish

Carlton...could/should have made the 8 this year.....it wont make a huge diff tho

i actually think Carlton needs a fews years in the top eight and to set up for a long stay...i dont want a quick flag i prefer a competiitive Blues again all of the time and a flag will come...
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People will say that a team needs a finals loss or two to learn from them

R22 and R23 were as good as that finals loss people point to.

If we win a flag in the next year or two it won't have been a quick flag. The nucleus of this team has been started really at the 2015 AFL Draft with pieces being added pretty much every year.

This isn't a Dogs like rise with Bonts winning it in his third year (comparable to Walsh in our build in regards to club stature), Macrae (4th) with Hunter (4th), Libba (6th). Comparatively, Walsh will already be two years more experienced than Bonts in that team and our 2015 draftees two years more than Libba.

This is a team that has endured down years to get to the promised land. Success just hasn't been handed to them on a plate.

Even newcomers over the past couple of years like Ollie Hollands and Adam Cerra (slightly different points or career but I digress) are well aware how hard this road has been just to get to this point.
 
In terms of the mental fragility, I agree it is a big issue. All I would say is that the most difficult trick in the book in the AFL / VFL has always been to overcome a losing culture.

We’ve got numerous examples… Collingwood (1958-1990), Melbourne (1964-2021), Sydney / South Melbourne (1933-2005), North Melbourne (prior to 1977), the Dogs (most of their history), St Kilda (same as the Dogs), Fitzroy never overcame their post-1944 malaise.

Where I was critical of the setup under Teague was that next to nobody (other than Power) had premiership experience - either as a player or as a coach. At least the current coaching panel has a fair bit of it. So hopefully they can impart some of that culture in our squad.

But I think this mental resilience will be the final part of the puzzle, and also the hardest to develop. The good thing is that it only takes finishing on the right side of the ledger in a few crunch games to develop this. We’ll all know the games when they happen. They will be games we previously would have thrown away, but where we scrape and scrap our way to a victory against highly fancied opposition when the odds look stacked against us.
 
Culture: takes a minute to lose it but years to build. Club leadership is the key both on and off field.
I feel we are on the way, but as you can see with us supporters, our previous decade of mental scares, are evident in every thread. Our players are of similar mindset, it will take a few years of finals to believe, and unfortunately last years finish didn’t help, but their strong desire for success is a huge positive step.
I finally have faith with the club setup, we are finally heading in the right direction. I couldn’t say or even felt that previously.
 
That time of the year again

From the end of last year, to this point, nothing has swayed my opinion. Of course based on health of individuals and the list as a whole

  • 13-16 Wins. Similar to last year
  • Fantasia to be our most dangerous small forward
  • O Holland to finish top 10 BnF
  • Harry a better year in front of goals
  • Moir to debut
  • Cerra AA squad
 
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Given, a normal run with injuries
  • We play finals and finish 6th
  • Dekonig assumes number 1 ruck mantle and Mckay is second Ruck
  • Another slow start to the season, where cohesion is lacking but we improve as the season progresses
  • The year ends with a lot of questions around whether our flankers and pocket players are classy enough
  • The absence of 2nd quality Key defender is apparent
  • The club will have a more aggressive trade period with a lot of focus on outside run.
  • Basically, I think the year will reveal as good as we are, the list lacks premiership class
 
We are going to win our 17th cup this year :)

And EHollands will be important to our team as per Acres - what a steal!
 
This is what I said back in August 2022.

No Oppo Supporters - 2022 Season - Season in review

Where are you going? USA to donate DNA to help Scientists who want to resurrect the striped carnivorous marsupial, officially known as a Thylacine, which used to roam the Australian bush.
www.bigfooty.com www.bigfooty.com

Don't want to blow my own horn but TOOT flipping TOOT.

I've been spot on with the ladder positions come end of home/away season over the last 2 years and I'm backing what I said for this year.

You can't change my mind.
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