Prediction Bookmarked

[Benaly28]

If people are happy with top 8 this year then then their kidding themselves.

This list is top 4 and THAT should be the benchmark.


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[JustaBattler]

Huge Improvement on the horizon
Carlton to finish 9th or 10th

quite possible

Carlton will lose the first 2 games

quite possible

The Mcgovern/Mcdonald experiment will ultimately fail

no idea what you are saying

A tactical mastermind will replace one of the assistants at season's end and become Voss' 2ic.

BF nuffie thinking ...

Dow gone at years end. O'brien to get 1 more year

Likely

C Curnow's knee to be assessed as degenerative and a worry that limits him to only 2 or 3 seasons, where he never quite hits his former standards

Every athletic footballer has degenerative knees - the AFL ask on player's bodies is OTP

Jack Carrol best 22 by year end, mid field minutes and best 3rd round recruit in Carlton's history.

Would be good if his kicking was AFL quality

We will start to hear whispers of the Miracle of Mirkov after he plays 2 games at the end of season

Has the height to play - now all he needs is everything else.

Kennedy wins B & F and with Owies 28 goal season & Philp establishing himself as a wingman giving the SoS years a poditive perspective

Kennedy will be top10 again - Owies will be lucky to get 15

Andrew Russel replaced at end of season

meh

 

[thylacine60]

If people are happy with top 8 this year then then their kidding themselves.

This list is top 4 and THAT should be the benchmark.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

1. they're
2. no-one could blame carlton supporters for maintaining low expectations after the past decade plus
3. it's never a mannequin

 

[Arr0w]

If people are happy with top 8 this year then then their kidding themselves.

This list is top 4 and THAT should be the benchmark.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

If we win 15 games and finish 5th at the end of the H&A season, would anyone be disappointed?

I think that's a realistic platform beyond next year and anything above that level is a bonus

 

[Aphrodite]

I hope I am and it’ll be bookmarked hey. I just think a lot of sides have improved around us and I suspect we will as well but don’t think it’s nearly a forgone conclusion that we make the 8 like some. Anyway, would be more than happy to be wrong

We won 8 of our 1st 10 games this year & were in the 8 all season until :-

2 minutes left on the clock in Rnd 23, we were 5 points up and then, Jamie ****ing Elliott

 

[Pinnell]

quite possible

quite possible

no idea what you are saying

BF nuffie thinking ...


Likely

Every athletic footballer has degenerative knees - the AFL ask on player's bodies is OTP

Would be good if his kicking was AFL quality


Has the height to play - now all he needs is everything else.

Kennedy will be top10 again - Owies will be lucky to get 15


meh

I think you'd better go back and take a look...... these were his 2022 predictions.

 

[JustaBattler]

I think you'd better go back and take a look...... these were his 2022 predictions.

T@!! - didnt notice- funny how most comments are still relevant though...

I will leave them on so I can shame myself - forever on BF!!

 

[The Bighouse]

Yeah listen it’s obviously one I hope I’m wrong as well and sadly I was too young in out last premiership error to remember it, so I think I’m just a little scarred by it all.

There was nothing wrong with that time (though it only lasted 1 season).

 

[The Dochs in]

There was nothing wrong with that time (though it only lasted 1 season).

I remember as a kid and my first 28 games that I went to live, which would have been over about 4 years (mostly at Optus oval) we didnt lose. Those were the days

 

[Earls Smother]

If we win 15 games and finish 5th at the end of the H&A season, would anyone be disappointed?

I think that's a realistic platform beyond next year and anything above that level is a bonus

15 would be acceptable if we had a poor run with injury.

12 this year was artificially low due to the injury toll. We were really a 14-ish win side. Then you add the extra game next year and 15 would only be very minimal improvement.

We are capable of better than that given an even run of luck. We can't just accept that bad luck is our lot. The list is a year older and a year fitter and we don't need to play youth unless it demands selection. That in itself should make us more robust. More depth should allow us to rotate players better to further mitigate injury concerns.

We can't afford to lose certain players (particularly talls) but all clubs are in the same boat.

 

[Arr0w]

15 would be acceptable if we had a poor run with injury.

12 this year was artificially low due to the injury toll. We were really a 14-ish win side. Then you add the extra game next year and 15 would only be very minimal improvement.

We are capable of better than that given an even run of luck. We can't just accept that bad luck is our lot. The list is a year older and a year fitter and we don't need to play youth unless it demands selection. That in itself should make us more robust. More depth should allow us to rotate players better to further mitigate injury concerns.

We can't afford to lose certain players (particularly talls) but all clubs are in the same boat.

I think 13-15 wins is realistic, especially given it is at the start of our prime years. We have the equal lowest ( along with the Hawks) number of players at 29+ years of age, in 2023

 

[Michael Jezz]

quite possible

quite possible

no idea what you are saying

BF nuffie thinking ...


Likely

Every athletic footballer has degenerative knees - the AFL ask on player's bodies is OTP

Would be good if his kicking was AFL quality


Has the height to play - now all he needs is everything else.

Kennedy will be top10 again - Owies will be lucky to get 15


meh

Big Footy Nuffie thinking applies a critique of a posters prediction for season 2023 to that poster's previous seasons bookmarks

 

[JustaBattler]

Big Footy Nuffie thinking applies a critique of a posters prediction for season 2023 to that poster's previous seasons bookmarks

That wasn't a 'critique' ...but you got the nuffie bit right!

 

[Earls Smother]

I think 13-15 wins is realistic, especially given it is at the start of our prime years. We have the equal lowest ( along with the Hawks) number of players at 29+ years of age, in 2023

I just think it errs on the side of pessimistic.

We will have an average age higher than all of Melbourne's 2021, Dogs 2016 and Pies 2010 premiership teams.

That is across the whole list in our case - the 23 we put on the park would be an even higher average age. We are ready now.

 

[Arr0w]

I just think it errs on the side of pessimistic.

We will have an average age higher than all of Melbourne's 2021, Dogs 2016 and Pies 2010 premiership teams.

That is across the whole list in our case - the 23 we put on the park would be an even higher average age. We are ready now.

Me a pessimist? Far from, nor am I an optimist

Two of those flags were in a different era, one without a 6 6 6 rule, etc

Demons had 9 players 29+, we will have 3 and a couple of them may not be best 22, so pointless using the average age of a total list as a guide. Even the Pies and Dogs had more players in that age range

I am predicting 13-15 wins, while you are predicting 16-17 perhaps? If so, my top end is close to your bottom end range

This clearly is the start of our prime years, making top 4, winning a flag, which is possible, would be a bonus, but I strongly believe that beyond 2023 is when we will be at our strongest

 

[BigBreakfast]

quite possible

quite possible

no idea what you are saying

BF nuffie thinking ...


Likely

Every athletic footballer has degenerative knees - the AFL ask on player's bodies is OTP

Would be good if his kicking was AFL quality


Has the height to play - now all he needs is everything else.

Kennedy will be top10 again - Owies will be lucky to get 15


meh

Pretty accurate for 2022. Well done Michael Jezz No more whiffs than most.

 

[Earls Smother]

Me a pessimist? Far from, nor am I an optimist

Two of those flags were in a different era, one without a 6 6 6 rule, etc

Demons had 9 players 29+, we will have 3 and a couple of them may not be best 22, so pointless using the average age of a total list as a guide. Even the Pies and Dogs had more players in that age range

I am predicting 13-15 wins, while you are predicting 16-17 perhaps? If so, my top end is close to your bottom end range

This clearly is the start of our prime years, making top 4, winning a flag, which is possible, would be a bonus, but I strongly believe that beyond 2023 is when we will be at our strongest

This is very mischievous.

Melbourne's premiership side (which is what I referred to, not the list) had 3 players 29 or older. Gawn and May were 29, while Hibberd was 31.

Dees had 2 28 year olds - we would likely have 5, plus Doc at 29 and maybe Newman at 30.

Melbourne's other older blokes were all either not good enough or bypassed for better (younger) options. Jetta, Vandenberg, Jones, Melksham etc. all didn't get a game when it mattered.

We have had an "old" team win it in 2022, and a ""young" team win it in 2021. Whatever mix we put out will be on average older than that Melbourne premiership side.

 

[Arr0w]

This is very mischievous.

Melbourne's premiership side (which is what I referred to, not the list) had 3 players 29 or older. Gawn and May were 29, while Hibberd was 31.

Dees had 2 28 year olds - we would likely have 5, plus Doc at 29 and maybe Newman at 30.

Melbourne's other older blokes were all either not good enough or bypassed for better (younger) options. Jetta, Vandenberg, Jones, Melksham etc. all didn't get a game when it mattered.

We have had an "old" team win it in 2022, and a ""young" team win it in 2021. Whatever mix we put out will be on average older than that Melbourne premiership side.

Okay, so we have eliminated the Pies, Dogs and focusing on Demons

Demons had players, 29+, that played at least 1 or more games during that year, we have 3 players in total in that age range.

So, there is no way we have the experienced top end players and or cover of the Demons.

Never stated that we can't win more than 15 games, I just believe a realistic output is in that 13-15, based on age maturity and experience

 

[Earls Smother]

Okay, so we have eliminated the Pies, Dogs and focusing on Demons

Demons had players, 29+, that played at least 1 or more games during that year, we have 3 players in total in that age range.

So, there is no way we have the experienced top end players and or cover of the Demons.

Never stated that we can't win more than 15 games, I just believe a realistic output is in that 13-15, based on age maturity and experience

Where did 29 come from though?

We will have 9 players 28 or over. So what if Melbourne had 9 who were 29 or over (and only 2 more who were 28)? Only 3 were good enough to play in the GF.

We also have another 9 who will be 26 or over. Using some imaginary benchmark to downplay our chances is just being pessimistic (in this case, not to say you are a pessimist). Our side every week will be older than Melbourne's premiership team. Why would we use that to aim lower than what they achieved?

 

[Arr0w]

Where did 29 come from though?

We will have 9 players 28 or over. So what if Melbourne had 9 who were 29 or over (and only 2 more who were 28)? Only 3 were good enough to play in the GF.

We also have another 9 who will be 26 or over. Using some imaginary benchmark to downplay our chances is just being pessimistic (in this case, not to say you are a pessimist). Our side every week will be older than Melbourne's premiership team. Why would we use that to aim lower than what they achieved?

Earl I think you need to do better research and not introduce whatifs.

We can use whatever age range you want. At 28+, we will have 9 players, Demons of 2021 had 11.

It is important to have mature backups during the year if you are looking to achieve ceratin win totals. As an example, if we lose Harry or Charlie for a game, we have a newbie in Lemmey. Demons had Mitch Brown to lean on and there are countless examples of this scenario

Be very clear, I am in no way downplaying our list or what can be achieved, nor am i being pessimistic.

Did you or anyone have the Demons winning 17 and half games in 2021, after finishing 9th the previous year? Would you have predicted that rise?

Not to mention you are also cherry picking, that if one side can rise that high, then all sides should, which we know isn't the case

The difference between our predictions is 1 win, does it really need to be debated?

 

[Earls Smother]

Earl I think you need to do better research and not introduce whatifs.

We can use whatever age range you want. At 28+, we will have 9 players, Demons of 2021 had 11.

It is important to have mature backups during the year if you are looking to achieve ceratin win totals. As an example, if we lose Harry or Charlie for a game, we have a newbie in Lemmey. Demons had Mitch Brown to lean on and there are countless examples of this scenario

Be very clear, I am in no way downplaying our list or what can be achieved, nor am i being pessimistic.

Did you or anyone have the Demons winning 17 and half games in 2021, after finishing 9th the previous year? Would you have predicted that rise?

Not to mention you are also cherry picking, that if one side can rise that high, then all sides should, which we know isn't the case

The difference between our predictions is 1 win, does it really need to be debated?

Better research? You have literally just repeated what I said.

We have 9, of which 3 potentially won't figure much (Ed, Newy, Plow). They had 11, but only 5 were significant players. The 3 mentioned plus the 28 year old Ben Brown and Tom McDonald.

I have never said we should rise. We can rise though, and should be aiming to, given an even run of fortune.

You are also cherry picking using Lemmey. We would shuffle other options using Young, Durdin, JSOS, Gov, Mirkov before we are forced to turn to a 19 year old.

It's not so much debating the number of wins, it is the statement that the number of 29-plus year old players matters in the slightest. It doesn't.

 

[Arr0w]

Better research? You have literally just repeated what I said.

We have 9, of which 3 potentially won't figure much (Ed, Newy, Plow). They had 11, but only 5 were significant players. The 3 mentioned plus the 28 year old Ben Brown and Tom McDonald.

I have never said we should rise. We can rise though, and should be aiming to, given an even run of fortune.

You are also cherry picking using Lemmey. We would shuffle other options using Young, Durdin, JSOS, Gov, Mirkov before we are forced to turn to a 19 year old.

It's not so much debating the number of wins, it is the statement that the number of 29-plus year old players matters in the slightest. It doesn't.

You use facts for one part of the debate then assumptions for the 2nd part.

You made a prediction, it's not that dissimilar to mine, but we both see us playing finals.

 

[The Bighouse]

This clearly is the start of our prime years, making top 4, winning a flag, which is possible, would be a bonus, but I strongly believe that beyond 2023 is when we will be at our strongest

Really? I think we’re a little behind schedule, bulk of our quality “youth” are now into their Free Agency/8th year, we’d have projected to have been contending earlier. ‘16 & ‘17 crops also not impactful enough unless from other teams. Only 1 player, but not to be underestimated, if having a fit CC ‘19-21 could have changed our dynamics over this period.
Obv reasons like coaching, development (been/being addressed) & injuries blunting our progress thus far. Injury loads still a concern..
2022 a taste; bitter end to the season but promising signs with some momentary, costly lapses.
Time is now though, seize the moments to keep & grow the solid foundation that we have. Up to the boys to make it a move into consistent, high quality football for a run at the top.

 

[Arr0w]

Really? I think we’re a little behind schedule, bulk of our quality “youth” are now into their Free Agency/8th year, we’d have projected to have been contending earlier. ‘16 & ‘17 crops also not impactful enough unless from other teams. Only 1 player, but not to be underestimated, if having a fit CC ‘19-21 could have changed our dynamics over this period.
Obv reasons like coaching, development (been/being addressed) & injuries blunting our progress thus far. Injury loads still a concern..
2022 a taste; bitter end to the season but promising signs with some momentary, costly lapses.
Time is now though, seize the moments to keep & grow the solid foundation that we have. Up to the boys to make it a move into consistent, high quality football for a run at the top.

Not sure what FA has to do with the readiness of a side to contend, nor who stated we should be contending earlier.

Making finals and contending are completely different

 

[The Bighouse]

Not sure what FA has to do with the readiness of a side to contend, nor who stated we should be contending earlier.

Making finals and contending are completely different

It means that players have been in the system for 8yrs from ‘15 draftees (our main catalyst), that’s how FA relates.

I don’t believe the plan was not to be playing finals before now, we might even have a club document with our objectives somewhere, premiershipS the 1st port of call. We do have 1yr up our sleeve for 2019-2023 planning but you need to be playing finals firstly to be in contention for a premiership/S.