Prediction Bookmarked

[Arr0w]

It means that players have been in the system for 8yrs from ‘15 draftees (our main catalyst), that’s how FA relates.

We are taking about a core, not half the list, some of which were delisted, rookie, elevated, just like Kennedy

I don’t believe the plan was not to be playing finals before now, we might even have a club document with our objectives somewhere, premiershipS the 1st port of call. We do have 1yr up our sleeve for 2019-2023 planning but you need to be playing finals firstly to be in contention for a premiership/S.

Most clubs would nominate finals/flags as an objective. How long did it take the Cats, before winning in 2007, Hawks in 2008 with little finals experience, Dogs

2021, GWS and * won 11 games to make finals, then dropped off.

So yes, IMHO, next year we enter our prime years

 

[jezzatigerbrent]

I remember as a kid and my first 28 games that I went to live, which would have been over about 4 years (mostly at Optus oval) we didnt lose. Those were the days

became a member in 1966 and we used to see a premiership from Carlton every second year.... And I saw 6 premierships in my first 14 years as a Carlton member .... As a supporter of Carlton I grew up absolutely spoilt when we had all the champions and expected to win each and every week

 

[katmanblue]

Is this a discussion thread? I thought it wasn't.

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[thylacine60]

I have nothing but disgust for everything discussed.........

 

[Michael Jezz]

1. Carlton will win 15 games after losing the first 2 of the season and win 1 final

2. If Carlton reach the last 2 weeks of the season it will be largely due to Jack Martin reaching his potential or another high half forward embracing the role and kicking 30+ goals.

3. Mckay to have a great year and wins B & F De Konig to have a breakout year including a few 3 goal games.

4. Voss although a good coach will continue to be questioned for his lack of in game management.

5. Fogarty, Dow, E Curnow, plowman gone at years end. O'brien and Owies just hanging on.

6. Carrol, Motlop, Cowans to be best 22 by years end but Kemp will be the biggest revelation and become our mr. fixit fwd and back.

7. Carlton Reserves play in the vfl grandfinal

 

[Earls Smother]

We are taking about a core, not half the list, some of which were delisted, rookie, elevated, just like Kennedy



Most clubs would nominate finals/flags as an objective. How long did it take the Cats, before winning in 2007, Hawks in 2008 with little finals experience, Dogs

2021, GWS and * won 11 games to make finals, then dropped off.

So yes, IMHO, next year we enter our prime years

What, in your opinion is the prime age bracket? I don't want to appear contrary just for the sake of debating ad nauseum, but it is often said 23-28 is the prime years for a footballer. At 23 you are 5 years into your career.

We will have 28 players in that bracket next season (and that excludes Doc and Walsh). That says we are smack bang in the middle of our prime. We have entered the early phase already - it's just that things have gone wrong, causing us to under perform. For comparison, Melbourne had 19 players in that age bracket in 2021. Geelong had just 13 this year, and really must be seen as a bit of an anomaly.

Not many clubs can get 28 players in that 23-28 age grouping. The natural course of drafting, given a few misses, probably gets you 18-20 over that 6 year period. We have done really well with our age demographic, so it comes down to "are they good enough" now.

It is interesting comparing the youth that Dees and Cats added in their flag years. Melbourne had 6 players 21 and under (7 if you count sub Jordon) play in the 2021 GF. Geelong had just 2 this year - SDK and Holmes (picked, but withdrew late). We don't know where we will sit with 21 and unders (only Durdin and Motlop semi established at this stage) but we will likely be somewhere between the two.

I can't see on what basis we are not seriously in contention to win it this year? Finals experience could hurt us at the business end, but everything else points to being a genuine chance to win it. Unless we are simply not good enough, then "prime" or not is irrelevant.

 

[JustaBattler]

Defensive capability is definately top4
Midfield capability if best are available is top4 if you take Walsh/Kennedy/Hewett out at best marginal top8 probably less - no depth here at Carlton...
Forward capability is top4 in talls ( Harry and Charlie) and bog ordinary for the other 4 - not finals quality SOJ/Fisher/Owies/Martin - they dont kick goals they arent a serious threat they have no factor X week in week out - they are battlers - if Durdin/Motlop have another gear that would be good - but we need Cuningham back in the side.

22 saw the Defense stretched due to injury lacking rebound hurt - and I have low trust in Young under pressure - but as a unit they are top4 with depth to cover injury even.

Forward line outperformed due to 2 Coleman medalists carrying 4 bog ordinary players-and midfield injuries crueled last ditch fall over the line finals spot chances - but both Harry and Charlie showed that they aren't proven clutch kicks at goal in important games - especially Q4 against Collingwood - when the game should have been iced and the ferals put away ...how do you lose a game 4 goals up when so much is at stake- I mean that was a massive choke....

In my mind the thing stopping Carlton being a genuine contender in '23 will be wings and HFF positions - currently occupied by blokes that aren't anywhere near top8 capability - so open question is how much better will Acres be than the blokes played last year and whether Voss can get finals quality week in week out performance from Lob/Cottrell ( unlikely) or find someone else....

I note the knives for Voss are already out based on lack of in game strategy whatever that means...maybe he lacks magical powers of finding players in game he hasn't got ..who knows.

 

[Arr0w]

What, in your opinion is the prime age bracket? I don't want to appear contrary just for the sake of debating ad nauseum, but it is often said 23-28 is the prime years for a footballer. At 23 you are 5 years into your career.

We will have 28 players in that bracket next season (and that excludes Doc and Walsh). That says we are smack bang in the middle of our prime. We have entered the early phase already - it's just that things have gone wrong, causing us to under perform. For comparison, Melbourne had 19 players in that age bracket in 2021. Geelong had just 13 this year, and really must be seen as a bit of an anomaly.

Not many clubs can get 28 players in that 23-28 age grouping. The natural course of drafting, given a few misses, probably gets you 18-20 over that 6 year period. We have done really well with our age demographic, so it comes down to "are they good enough" now.

It is interesting comparing the youth that Dees and Cats added in their flag years. Melbourne had 6 players 21 and under (7 if you count sub Jordon) play in the 2021 GF. Geelong had just 2 this year - SDK and Holmes. We don't know where we will sit with 21 and unders (only Durdin and Motlop semi established at this stage) but we will likely be somewhere between the two.

I can't see on what basis we are not seriously in contention to win it this year? Finals experience could hurt us at the business end, but everything else points to being a genuine chance to win it. Unless we are simply not good enough, then "prime" or not is irrelevant.

Reliant on talent and having a healthy list, but have mentioned countless times that I believe the ideal mix is, a quarter of your list at 22 and under, half at 23-27, quarter at 28+

So, given we hit that mark, or close to, going into next year, I believe it is the start of our prime years, in regards to experience, maturity and hopefully continuity

Again, that's not to say we can't finish top 4 or win a flag

Last time now, you are still wanting to continue this debate, based on the difference of 1 H&A win, when comparing our predictions

 

[Earls Smother]

Reliant on talent and having a healthy list, but have mentioned countless times that I believe the ideal mix is, a quarter of your list at 22 and under, half at 23-27, quarter at 28+

So, given we hit that mark, or close to, going into next year, I believe it is the start of our prime years, in regards to experience, maturity and hopefully continuity

Again, that's not to say we can't finish top 4 or win a flag

Last time now, you are still wanting to continue this debate, based on the difference of 1 H&A win, when comparing our predictions

If you read my post, I deliberately stated that isn't what I was doing.

The definition of "prime" is what I'm discussing. The number of wins doesn't matter for the sake of that. We could win 15 and finish 4th or 18 and finish 2nd. I believe we have missed the early part of our prime due to a number of factors and are not just entering it. That has nothing to do with number of wins.

 

[Beyond Blue]

I can't see on what basis we are not seriously in contention to win it this year? Finals experience could hurt us at the business end, but everything else points to being a genuine chance to win it. Unless we are simply not good enough, then "prime" or not is irrelevant.

There is still too many questions over our ability to deliver under pressure to make this comment. Even last year in reasonably safe situations like the Hawks and Port games when the pressure went up we bottled it. Yes we won those games but only after monumental struggles when a far more comfortable win should have been the result.

I’ve tried making predictions for this season - I can see us making the top 4 but I could also see us missing the 8 by a couple wins - more so than other clubs there is an unknown factor with us when it comes to winning out of habit because our players have no track record of having done it…and therein lies the problem.

 

[Earls Smother]

Defensive capability is definately top4
Midfield capability if best are available is top4 if you take Walsh/Kennedy/Hewett out at best marginal top8 probably less - no depth here at Carlton...
Forward capability is top4 in talls ( Harry and Charlie) and bog ordinary for the other 4 - not finals quality SOJ/Fisher/Owies/Martin - they dont kick goals they arent a serious threat they have no factor X week in week out - they are battlers - if Durdin/Motlop have another gear that would be good - but we need Cuningham back in the side.

22 saw the Defense stretched due to injury lacking rebound hurt - and I have low trust in Young under pressure - but as a unit they are top4 with depth to cover injury even.

Forward line outperformed due to 2 Coleman medalists carrying 4 bog ordinary players-and midfield injuries crueled last ditch fall over the line finals spot chances - but both Harry and Charlie showed that they aren't proven clutch kicks at goal in important games - especially Q4 against Collingwood - when the game should have been iced and the ferals put away ...how do you lose a game 4 goals up when so much is at stake- I mean that was a massive choke....

In my mind the thing stopping Carlton being a genuine contender in '23 will be wings and HFF positions - currently occupied by blokes that aren't anywhere near top8 capability - so open question is how much better will Acres be than the blokes played last year and whether Voss can get finals quality week in week out performance from Lob/Cottrell ( unlikely) or find someone else....

I note the knives for Voss are already out based on lack of in game strategy whatever that means...maybe he lacks magical powers of finding players in game he hasn't got ..who knows.

Those weak spots are where we need our 21 and unders (or Cunners as you say) to overtake incumbents.

It doesn't matter who, but we need one/some of Kemp, Honey, Carroll, Philp or the 4 newbies to jump up and demand a spot. Motlop and Durdin should both benefit from the exposure they've had and get better.

My point re being in our prime is based more on age demographic. If we have too many that are still not good enough, then we are going to waste our prime years.

 

[Earls Smother]

There is still too many questions over our ability to deliver under pressure to make this comment. Even last year in reasonably safe situations like the Hawks and Port games when the pressure went up we bottled it. Yes we won those games but only after monumental struggles when a far more comfortable win should have been the result.

I’ve tried making predictions for this season - I can see us making the top 4 but I could also see us missing the 8 by a couple wins - more so than other clubs there is an unknown factor with us when it comes to winning out of habit because our players have no track record of having done it…and therein lies the problem.

Those early games were more fitness/lack of run related. We didn't bottle it, we ran out of legs.

Voss knew that and we did something about it with Acres and drafting.

We bottled the Pies game but should learn a huge lesson from that. If we don't/can't then we aren't made of the right stuff to be successful.

 

[JustaBattler]

Those weak spots are where we need our 21 and unders (or Cunners as you say) to overtake incumbents.

It doesn't matter who, but we need one/some of Kemp, Honey, Carroll, Philp or the 4 newbies to jump up and demand a spot. Motlop and Durdin should both benefit from the exposure they've had and get better.

My point re being in our prime is based more on age demographic. If we have too many that are still not good enough, then we are going to waste our prime years.

Voss has to fix the HFF and wings simple as that his midfield and defensive players can hold their own against any opposition - but not having dangerous smaller forwards or wingmen who can also hit the score board - is a huge negative makes every game a hard grind - when / if the side starts putting teams away with 5+ goal margins - supporters can start thinking contending- in my mind age means nothing it is just a stat for nerdy conversation - but yeah there is enough 'experience' in the starting 22 that should see Carlton playing finals - definately.

People assume that lower sides will stay low and the only team that will improve is Carlton - big mistake. Adelaide/Norfs/Hawforn all will be much much better in '23.

So I agree with you - '23 will show whether Carlton is good enough or not - another year of 'no excuses' - but still the same questions with injury prone players and the scoring side of the equation up forward.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Defensive capability is definately top4
Midfield capability if best are available is top4 if you take Walsh/Kennedy/Hewett out at best marginal top8 probably less - no depth here at Carlton...
Forward capability is top4 in talls ( Harry and Charlie) and bog ordinary for the other 4 - not finals quality SOJ/Fisher/Owies/Martin - they dont kick goals they arent a serious threat they have no factor X week in week out - they are battlers - if Durdin/Motlop have another gear that would be good - but we need Cuningham back in the side.

22 saw the Defense stretched due to injury lacking rebound hurt - and I have low trust in Young under pressure - but as a unit they are top4 with depth to cover injury even.

Forward line outperformed due to 2 Coleman medalists carrying 4 bog ordinary players-and midfield injuries crueled last ditch fall over the line finals spot chances - but both Harry and Charlie showed that they aren't proven clutch kicks at goal in important games - especially Q4 against Collingwood - when the game should have been iced and the ferals put away ...how do you lose a game 4 goals up when so much is at stake- I mean that was a massive choke....

In my mind the thing stopping Carlton being a genuine contender in '23 will be wings and HFF positions - currently occupied by blokes that aren't anywhere near top8 capability - so open question is how much better will Acres be than the blokes played last year and whether Voss can get finals quality week in week out performance from Lob/Cottrell ( unlikely) or find someone else....

I note the knives for Voss are already out based on lack of in game strategy whatever that means...maybe he lacks magical powers of finding players in game he hasn't got ..who knows.

The other weakness is the small backs, apart from saad are not great at transitioning the ball- that is a combination of run and carry and kicking. Docherty, for example, tends to dump kick under pressure. Mcgovern mitigates this weakness if fit.
The drafting of cowans and development of boyd could be the answer

 

[JustaBattler]

The other weakness is the small backs, apart from saad are not great at transitioning the ball- that is a combination of run and carry and kicking. Docherty, for example, tends to dump kick under pressure. Mcgovern mitigates this weakness if fit.
The drafting of cowans and development of boyd could be the answer

Williams will add a lot of run and kick if he strays on the park. Doch has never been a good attacking kick - but he is a good straight line runner...it is a good enough mix back there to break even at least with most sides...having a wingman who actually presents properly into space will help as well - the outside run of the Carlton midfield ex Walsh filling in - has been bog ordinary so ne easy targets for the HBF up forward.

 

[Magruder]

the umpiring bleat brigade will be as strong as ever right from the first round - the fact every other club's supporters think they are hard done by just doesn't seem to filter through

Nathan Williamson to award the Blues an after the siren free kick and 50 metre penalty.

 

[The Bighouse]

The other weakness is the small backs, apart from saad are not great at transitioning the ball- that is a combination of run and carry and kicking. Docherty, for example, tends to dump kick under pressure. Mcgovern mitigates this weakness if fit.
The drafting of cowans and development of boyd could be the answer

Williams will add a lot of run and kick if he strays on the park. Doch has never been a good attacking kick - but he is a good straight line runner...it is a good enough mix back there to break even at least with most sides...having a wingman who actually presents properly into space will help as well - the outside run of the Carlton midfield ex Walsh filling in - has been bog ordinary so ne easy targets for the HBF up forward.

This is where Boyd is point of difference player for us, his disposal is another level to our other players and could be promoted to the co-distributor from the backline (along with Saad’s incumbent role).

 

[JustaBattler]

This is where Boyd is point of difference player for us, his disposal is another level to our other players and could be promoted to the co-distributor from the backline (along with Saad’s incumbent role).

Williams is a better kick than Saad....I think Boyd and Marchbank will be going head to head with Newman for the bench spot..

* Edit which just goes to show that there is a fair amount fo real depth in defensive lines....

 

[The Bighouse]

Williams is a better kick than Saad....I think Boyd and Marchbank will be going head to head with Newman for the bench spot..

* Edit which just goes to show that there is a fair amount fo real depth in defensive lines....

Saad’s run makes him #1 for the receiving role (however not always the best option).

Depth = yes. ZW, Boyd, Marchy, McGovern missing large patches, even Newman at the end + Weiters. Not a bad back 6 in itself.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

If you read my post, I deliberately stated that isn't what I was doing.

The definition of "prime" is what I'm discussing. The number of wins doesn't matter for the sake of that. We could win 15 and finish 4th or 18 and finish 2nd. I believe we have missed the early part of our prime due to a number of factors and are not just entering it. That has nothing to do with number of wins.

I agree. I think 2022 was the start of our prime, but our lack of experience in winning crunch games hurt us. I feel like the transition from young, exciting up and comers to finals side with a wide open window for flags, was set back by a fragile mindset in too many. Let's hope we can get everyone putting their hand up to lead, and not just watch and follow from here on in.

 

[JustaBattler]

I agree. I think 2022 was the start of our prime, but our lack of experience in winning crunch games hurt us. I feel like the transition from young, exciting up and comers to finals side with a wide open window for flags, was set back by a fragile mindset in too many. Let's hope we can get everyone putting their hand up to lead, and not just watch and follow from here on in.

It is an interesting puzzle - to consider just how connected "lack of experience" is to "fragile" ( under developed?) mindset....

On the one hand we witnessed the disaster of what losing to Adelaide ended up being and on the other hand we witnessed losing two games against top4 sides in the last minutes of the game ...

when I go through the events I see two things that ultimately 'cost' H&A percentage and H&A W/L...

1. Extremely poor execution in the forward 50 at crucial times- depriving the team of scoreboard pressure - or the killing blows to opposition; and
2. Extremely poor team discipline and execution when it comes to closing out games in the last few minutes - protecting a lead.

If I was forced to choose how Carlton managed to lose the games against Melbourne and Collingwood ( which were effectively finals games against finals teams - I would say that in the end Owies inability to kick a straight forward 20 meter pass under no pressure to Saad who had positioned himself perfectly for a receive - was a brutal reminder that in teh last minute(s) of a game you dont want the ball in the hands of players who aren't able to execute the basics ...

Worse still was the inability of 3 Carlton defenders to stop Melksham plucking a mark out of thin air right in teh middle of them all to steal a match that could have and should have been closed down merely through playing tight....

I was not surprised to see Newnes cut after that effort...

Similarly, against Collingwood- how does Durdin find the only unmanned defender in Collingwood back pocket to kick directly too - instead of pumping the ball to the goal where Carlton had Harry camped - he chose to try and find Charlie on a lead- and miss him so badly and to great disadvantage....

which brings in the second part of why the team lost round 23....instead of sticking to defensive structure - why was Elliott allowed to find so much open space ? Who allowed Stocker to move so far away from defensive posiotning behind the ball ? what was Weitering and others doing to make sure there was adequate cover for the rebound?

Both matches should have and could have been won...very very distasteful end to the season and finals chances - I agree experience and leadership went missing...

Teams can learn to close out games I doubt that players can 'learn' to execute the basics under pressure- that is in the - 'you have it or you don't' category. imo and why I have very low confidence in a few players who have enough run to get the ball and not enough skill to do good things with it...Voss was carrying 2-3 of those in the starting 22 in '22.

 

[Earls Smother]

I agree. I think 2022 was the start of our prime, but our lack of experience in winning crunch games hurt us. I feel like the transition from young, exciting up and comers to finals side with a wide open window for flags, was set back by a fragile mindset in too many. Let's hope we can get everyone putting their hand up to lead, and not just watch and follow from here on in.

We are actually positioned quite similarly to Richmond in 2017. They had a poor 2016 for various reasons (mainly injury) but it couldn't be argued they weren't in their early prime that year. Yet they finished 13th.

In 2017 they had 25 players in that 23-28 age group. We have 28. They had 3 players 29 or over (same as us), and of those, only Grigg (29) played in the flag (only really due to Griffiths getting injured). This emphasises that you do not need an older core - unless they are good enough. The Bulldogs had Murphy, Boyd and Morris in 2016 simply because they were still bloody good players, despite being in their 30's. Geelong obviously an extreme example of that.

You could argue Richmond had 3 years of finals experience (albeit poor - with a fragile mindset?) in 2013-15. They did however have a core of older players in those years, who were gone in 2017 i.e. they got better when Newman, Deledio, King, Jackson, Tuck, Foley and Chaplin had moved on. We have lost no-one of consequence and have no reliance on an older core to perform. Experience (age) was useless to Richmond, because it was all experience of failure. The younger breed created their own belief.

As you say, it's now up to our coaches and leaders to create a mindset that allows us to thrive.

 

[Arr0w]

We are actually positioned quite similarly to Richmond in 2017. They had a poor 2016 for various reasons (mainly injury) but it couldn't be argued they weren't in their early prime that year. Yet they finished 13th.

In 2017 they had 25 players in that 23-28 age group. We have 28. They had 3 players 29 or over (same as us), and of those, only Grigg (29) played in the flag (only really due to Griffiths getting injured). This emphasises that you do not need an older core - unless they are good enough. The Bulldogs had Murphy, Boyd and Morris in 2016 simply because they were still bloody good players, despite being in their 30's. Geelong obviously an extreme example of that.

You could argue Richmond had 3 years of finals experience (albeit poor - with a fragile mindset?) in 2013-15. They did however have a core of older players in those years, who were gone in 2017 i.e. they got better when Newman, Deledio, King, Jackson, Tuck, Foley and Chaplin had moved on. We have lost no-one of consequence and have no reliance on an older core to perform. Experience (age) was useless to Richmond, because it was all experience of failure. The younger breed created their own belief.

As you say, it's now up to our coaches and leaders to create a mindset that allows us to thrive.

So essentially, Tigers won 15 games that year, 2017, in the H&A season, with 3 players 29+, like we have next year?

So I guess a prediction of 13-15 wins, is reasonable

On another note, your chances of winning a flag increase dramatically if finishing in the top 3

 

[Earls Smother]

So essentially, Tigers won 15 games that year, 2017, in the H&A season, with 3 players 29+, like we have next year?

So I guess a prediction of 13-15 wins, is reasonable

On another note, your chances of winning a flag increase dramatically if finishing in the top 3

To quote you:

"Last time now, you are still wanting to continue this debate, based on the difference of 1 H&A win, when comparing our predictions"

We are coming off a 50% higher base than Richmond. 12 wins against their 8 in 2016.

There is also an extra game. If they had not won a 16th game in a 23 game season, they would have finished 5th or 6th (3 sides 1 win behind them) and history would be different.

 

[thylacine60]

It is an interesting puzzle - to consider just how connected "lack of experience" is to "fragile" ( under developed?) mindset....

On the one hand we witnessed the disaster of what losing to Adelaide ended up being and on the other hand we witnessed losing two games against top4 sides in the last minutes of the game ...

when I go through the events I see two things that ultimately 'cost' H&A percentage and H&A W/L...

1. Extremely poor execution in the forward 50 at crucial times- depriving the team of scoreboard pressure - or the killing blows to opposition; and
2. Extremely poor team discipline and execution when it comes to closing out games in the last few minutes - protecting a lead.

If I was forced to choose how Carlton managed to lose the games against Melbourne and Collingwood ( which were effectively finals games against finals teams - I would say that in the end Owies inability to kick a straight forward 20 meter pass under no pressure to Saad who had positioned himself perfectly for a receive - was a brutal reminder that in teh last minute(s) of a game you dont want the ball in the hands of players who aren't able to execute the basics ...

Worse still was the inability of 3 Carlton defenders to stop Melksham plucking a mark out of thin air right in teh middle of them all to steal a match that could have and should have been closed down merely through playing tight....

I was not surprised to see Newnes cut after that effort...

Similarly, against Collingwood- how does Durdin find the only unmanned defender in Collingwood back pocket to kick directly too - instead of pumping the ball to the goal where Carlton had Harry camped - he chose to try and find Charlie on a lead- and miss him so badly and to great disadvantage....

which brings in the second part of why the team lost round 23....instead of sticking to defensive structure - why was Elliott allowed to find so much open space ? Who allowed Stocker to move so far away from defensive posiotning behind the ball ? what was Weitering and others doing to make sure there was adequate cover for the rebound?

Both matches should have and could have been won...very very distasteful end to the season and finals chances - I agree experience and leadership went missing...

Teams can learn to close out games I doubt that players can 'learn' to execute the basics under pressure- that is in the - 'you have it or you don't' category. imo and why I have very low confidence in a few players who have enough run to get the ball and not enough skill to do good things with it...Voss was carrying 2-3 of those in the starting 22 in '22.

you've plucked some of our fringe players out here but let charlie off the hook.......you are right in your detailing of the horrors of those games but I always struggle to point the finger so specifically - I'm tipping every player made a mistake that resulted in us falling short in the end........melksham, kill me