Brownlow Guru Speaks - 2015

[topher_gtr]

DangerSloane pls respond

 

[The Passenger]

Of the top 10 in bg's, 9 made the top 10. Ward in, and gaff finished =11 from a predicted 2nd.

Goldstein dropped from 3rd to 10th. All the rest of the top 10 were pretty close to their predictions.

 

[Jugada]

Rucks just don't poll well in the brownlow. They haven't for about 20 years.

And I thought gaff would poll a bit less than was first thought. It's his first really big year. The same year in 2016 nets him a top five finish.

Unless they are Sandilands

 

[DangerSloane]

So the two that the OP said to bet on, Goldstein and Gaff finished outside the top 10.

What a system.

My system had Fyfe then Priddis Danger and Mitchell all tied 2nd so really listening to the 'brownlow guru' would've sent you broke.

topher_gtr I hope you loaded up on Goldy and Gaff!

 

[DangerSloane]

BG's assessment of Dangerfield seems spot on.

7th in his assessment, 6th on the night.

And how was his assessment of you know, the ones he said to bet on?
Oh thats right they both finished outside the top 10.

Stop talking it up. The system was rubbish and nobody made money on it.

FWIW I had Fyfe then Priddis Mitchell and Dangerfield tied, so I was much much closer.

 

[DangerSloane]

How'd that work out for you?

A lot better than betting than 'the brownlow guru' on Goldstein!
Dangerfield missed a place by what 3 votes? I'll take it that close at $9 every day of the week.
A little luck and he sneaks in to the top 3.

Rather than backing Goldstein and Hannebury for the win and losing anyway.

 

[ManWithNoName]

Stop talking it up. The system was rubbish and nobody made money on it.

Well I'll buy you a beer BG ....loaded up on Stevens in the H2H market against Riolli.

I was OK on it but used your analysis to give me a bit more confidence in upping it, so rather than 3 bets - I put it all on Jacky boy.

 

[DangerSloane]

Wow ManWithNoName he got one H2H.
For reference I got 7 of the 9 crownlow tips on Crownbet.

He said 'bad year'
Wont release team results but has admitted theyre bad
So he won a few H2H bets, but theyre 50:50.

I'm guessing you followed his bets then? Goldstein Hannebury and the jazz.

 

[ManWithNoName]

Wow ManWithNoName he got one H2H.
For reference I got 7 of the 9 crownlow tips on Crownbet.

He said 'bad year'
Wont release team results but has admitted theyre bad
So he won a few H2H bets, but theyre 50:50.

I'm guessing you followed his bets then? Goldstein Hannebury and the jazz.

I've never seen someone get so upset over something so insignificant. Deary me.

 

[DangerSloane]

I've never seen someone get so upset over something so insignificant. Deary me.

I'm not upset, I just dont know why this guy gets airtime?
His system is based on his gut feel and him watching games.

He clearly doesnt take into account consistently good pollers, or the fact that ruckmen dont poll as well as others etc etc.

Its just a guess. The same as anyone elses, but you guys fap on about it like its some kind of licence to print money, which as has been proven 2 years in a row, its not.

 

[kickazz]

It's it because he barracks for Port Adelaide?

 

[Halftimehero]

Wow ManWithNoName he got one H2H.
For reference I got 7 of the 9 crownlow tips on Crownbet.

He said 'bad year'
Wont release team results but has admitted theyre bad
So he won a few H2H bets, but theyre 50:50.

I'm guessing you followed his bets then? Goldstein Hannebury and the jazz.

Oh wow, so you won a couple of free $5 bets, yippee

 

[Halftimehero]

Before anyone bags the original market the OP put up, maybe you should look at the odds in another way, you could have layed Danger, Priddis, Hanners, Mitchell and Kennedy for a fortune.

 

[DangerSloane]

Oh wow, so you won a couple of free $5 bets, yippee

Yeh and also the Trifecta. As I said my model had Fyfe winning from Danger Mitchell and Priddis tied for 2nd so i hit a bunch of tris around that.

And live on Fyfe when every mug decided that Mitchell had won it because the AFL accidentally released that picture.

Lost on Dangerfield place, but overall my model shat on BG's

 

[DangerSloane]

Before anyone bags the original market the OP put up, maybe you should look at the odds in another way, you could have layed Danger, Priddis, Hanners, Mitchell and Kennedy for a fortune.

Do you know what odds you get on a lay when it pays over $10 for the win?

Massive outlay for minimal return.

 

[DangerSloane]

It's it because he barracks for Port Adelaide?

Hadnt even noticed that.
But that may be why he clearly underrated Dangerfields polling ability.

 

[Halftimehero]

Yeh and also the Trifecta. As I said my model had Fyfe winning from Danger Mitchell and Priddis tied for 2nd so i hit a bunch of tris around that.

And live on Fyfe when every mug decided that Mitchell had won it because the AFL accidentally released that picture.

Lost on Dangerfield place, but overall my model shat on BG's

I layed Dangerfield and Priddis on betfair for an absolute fortune, the prices with the corporates were way under the odds, punting isn't always about who you think will win, its about trying to find value in the market.

 

[Halftimehero]

Do you know what odds you get on a lay when it pays over $10 for the win?

Massive outlay for minimal return.

You really dont understand anything about punting do you?

 

[Halftimehero]

Do you know what odds you get on a lay when it pays over $10 for the win?

Massive outlay for minimal return.

I didn't have an outlay, I layed those players and watched every clown load up because they thought it was value based on the way out of whack odds on the corporates.

 

[DangerSloane]

I didn't have an outlay, I layed those players and watched every clown load up because they thought it was value based on the way out of whack odds on the corporates.

So how much money did you make?
And how much did you stand to lose if somehow Priddis had got up?

 

[DangerSloane]

Anyway facts are facts. OP didnt encourage lays.
He encouraged bets on Goldstein and Gaff, who both finished outside the top 10, which tells you that the bookmakers had it a lot closer to reality than the 'brownlow guru'

/End thread.

 

[Halftimehero]

So how much money did you make?
And how much did you stand to lose if somehow Priddis had got up?

I greened up on the market, I had a guaranteed profit no matter who won, thats how betfair works if you are smart enough.

 

[DangerSloane]

And what has you being a hero got to do with the BG and his rubbish system?

Seems like you just came here to say you won money. Well congratulations, use $0.50 of it to head down to a phone box and call someone who cares.

I made money too...so did half the people in here.

 

[BEEG]

Wow ManWithNoName he got one H2H.
For reference I got 7 of the 9 crownlow tips on Crownbet.

He said 'bad year'
Wont release team results but has admitted theyre bad
So he won a few H2H bets, but theyre 50:50.

I'm guessing you followed his bets then? Goldstein Hannebury and the jazz.

I did wont make that mistake again

 

[Halftimehero]

And what has you being a hero got to do with the BG and his rubbish system?

Seems like you just came here to say you won money. Well congratulations, use $0.50 of it to head down to a phone box and call someone who cares.

I made money too...so did half the people in here.

Just if you used his market as a laying proposition then there was a stack of value to be had.