Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 2)

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Ive used just montagna, hayes and dal in the saints trifecta bets. 6 bets covers all combinations. I have $10 on each @ 51 = $512 return.

Personally I think Riewoldt has a better chance than Goddard of reaching the top 3. Saying that, I'm confident he wont.

I'm hoping Goddard doesn't top 3 but anything can happen. 9 days.

 

[rocketmac360]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Also a quick question regarding Hayes, Dal Santo and Montagna, I like the thinking behind putting $10 on each trifecta but i am with TAB and i cant seem to find this anywhere. Can somebody enlighten me whether or not it is possible to bet on this and how???

They don't have quinellas or trifectas unfortunately, at least not in WA.

http://ozbet.com.au/UI/SportUI/SportEventNavPage.aspx?sportSeq=183&sportName=Australian%20Rules

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I recently had a look at Brisbane's brownlow votes for the last 2 years.
Black literally took votes for most games that Brisbane won despite only moderate possessions in some.

I can see why some are so confident on Black.

The only question is whether this will be repeated this year.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

A good one i reckon to put in a multi is the H2H of Gibbs vs Hayes. Last time i saw this Hayes was still paying very good IMO and is a pretty sure thing to beating Gibbs with Murphy, Fev and Juddy likely to own the blue votes. He will get about 8-12 but Hayes will get about 15-21.

Juswt had a look again and Hayes still paying 1.77 to Gibbs 1.94 (In my Opinion Hayes is a almost a lock).

Also a quick question regarding Hayes, Dal Santo and Montagna, I like the thinking behind putting $10 on each trifecta but i am with TAB and i cant seem to find this anywhere. Can somebody enlighten me whether or not it is possible to bet on this and how???

PS: I have Goddard finishing on 20 votes but as many suggested i also dont hink he will poll overly well. I think he will get 15 votes and be similar to Didak and Chapman who i have all finished with them on 20 but i think 15 is more reality for them.

Also be quiet about Hayes paying 51-1 for leader at round 11

Where is Gibbs Vs Hayes on offer?

 

[twarby]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Similar to what I've done. Good luck!

have you actually made that bet with the tab and its been accepted? those groups features the clubs your using in your most club votes

 

[Sportman1987]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

have you actually made that bet with the tab and its been accepted? those groups features the clubs your using in your most club votes

I have, but I've used different groups. You're right though. You basically can't overlap players in the multi's, for example choosing Geelong's leading vote getter in one leg, & choosing Selwood to win his group as another (even if you choose Ablett to win most votes for Geelong). Just the fact that Selwood is offered in both legs, it's considered overlapping and you can't do it.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

They don't have quinellas or trifectas unfortunately, at least not in WA.

http://ozbet.com.au/UI/SportUI/SportEventNavPage.aspx?sportSeq=183&sportName=Australian%20Rules

Use the TAB.

 

[Carlton Kid]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I have, but I've used different groups. You're right though. You basically can't overlap players in the multi's, for example choosing Geelong's leading vote getter in one leg, & choosing Selwood to win his group as another (even if you choose Ablett to win most votes for Geelong). Just the fact that Selwood is offered in both legs, it's considered overlapping and you can't do it.

Hmmm...sorry I've never really bet before in the Brownlow and as such wasn't aware of this. So could you possibly give where exactly I've overlapped? Thanks.

EDIT: So group 3 would be fine as I'm not betting on most votes for St.Kilda or Geelong. Group 4 would have to go because of Pendlebury with swan as most Collingwood votes. But in that particular group could I still make the bet if I took Swan out or because McLeod is in the group would he overlap with Adelaide most votes, same with Power as I have wanted to bet on Brisbane most votes?

 

[Sportman1987]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Hmmm...sorry I've never really bet before in the Brownlow and as such wasn't aware of this. So could you possibly give where exactly I've overlapped? Thanks.

EDIT: So group 3 would be fine as I'm not betting on most votes for St.Kilda or Geelong. Group 4 would have to go because of Pendlebury with swan as most Collingwood votes. But in that particular group could I still make the bet if i took Swan out or because McLeod is in the group would he overlap with Adelaide most votes, same with Power in Group 4 as I have wanted to bet on Brisbane most votes?

What I've said is only anecdotal, I don't know 100% the rules .... but I had Selwood winning a group in which Boyd was offered for one leg, then I tried to add Boyd as top vote getter for bulldogs in another leg to boost value ... but this then caused the multi to be disallowed.

So yep, the bet with Swan as leading vote getter for Pies, & then Pendlebury to win his group would be disallowed .... since Pendelbury is offered in both legs. You can 'overlap' teams, since I have Ablett/Swan head to head, & then Selwood winning his group as 2 legs in all of my multi's.

But the key seems to be you can't overlap bets where a player is offered in both.

 

[Carlton Kid]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

So all I need to do is take Swan out which barely affects the odds at all?

 

[twarby]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

So all I need to do is take Swan out which barely affects the odds at all?

if the club doesnt have a team in the group multis you are fine when betting with club votes

 

[The Water Scorpion]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Does anyone know where these votes are being stored cos' I wouldn't mind getting me hands on them for a couple of days...? I am happy to put them back where I got them from...

 

[AG]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Does anyone know where these votes are being stored cos' I wouldn't mind getting me hands on them for a couple of days...? I am happy to put them back where I got them from...

Adam Goodes looks after the votes between the end of R22 and Brownlow night.

 

[Carlton Kid]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

if the club doesnt have a team in the group multis you are fine when betting with club votes

So I wouldn't be able to bet on a group containing McLeod as I want to bet on Most Votes for Adelaide, even if I don't bet on him...?

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Stop talking about stupid boring irrelevant crap and talk about possibly multis.

 

[carpsi]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Stop talking about stupid boring irrelevant crap and talk about possibly multis.

Hey buddy obviously you havent got over your lions copping a hiding last night. If someone isnt sure on how to bet or isnt sure on certain things, they have the right to ask a question. People on here will gladly help. If you want to criticise go and choose another forum to do it. In other words piss off!

 

[CatFan79]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Stop talking about stupid boring irrelevant crap and talk about possibly multis.

Gladly...

I know most of us have Vince as a lock for group 6 but how is everyone feeling about Akermanis' chances? He looks to be the closest chance but is he worth a save?

Similarly with group 4. I rekon Pendlebury has a huge chance at $7 and is worth a save for Gibbs...

Thoughts??

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Gladly...

I know most of us have Vince as a lock for group 6 but how is everyone feeling about Akermanis' chances? He looks to be the closest chance but is he worth a save?

Similarly with group 4. I rekon Pendlebury has a huge chance at $7 and is worth a save for Gibbs...

Thoughts??

I've also incorporated Vince from the Group market into quite a few multis. Aker may be worth a save, but reckon i'll run the risk as i still see Vince being the highest vote getter at the Crows and thus will poll more than Aker.

BK got me thinking about Pendles chances in Gibbs' group, although i reassessed each of their performances for the year and can see Gibbs still overcoming Pendles.

Gibbs played all 22 games, whilst Pendles missed 3 (Rounds 13, 22, and 12 when he got injured in the first quarter), which already gives Gibbs an advantage. At most i see Pendlebury having at most 4 BOG performances throughout the season, whereas Gibbs had between 5-6 BOG performances. Furthermore, i can see Gibbs stealing a few more 2 votes than what Pendles will.

Might be worth some thought for a few multis as it could very well be close, but i'm quietly confident Gibbs' massive end to the season will see him make up ground and overcome Pendles.

What are your thoughts CatFan?

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Hey buddy obviously you havent got over your lions copping a hiding last night. If someone isnt sure on how to bet or isnt sure on certain things, they have the right to ask a question. People on here will gladly help. If you want to criticise go and choose another forum to do it. In other words piss off!

Calm down precious. Already got 40 bets on. Just want to listen to other people's opinion on things, not idle irrelevant crap thats been discussed for the last page or so.

 

[CatFan79]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

What are your thoughts CatFan?

I'm confident with Vince and have majority of my multis through him. Will only put a couple of low save bets through Aker.

I have Pendlebury polling 13-15 with Gibbs 17-19, but both these guys have improved a lot this year so polling history (which of course is very important) doesn't tell us a lot. If anything I'd expect Pendlebury to exceed expectations.

IMO at $7 Pendles is worth a save or 2 and should definitely be second favourite in that group before McLeod and Sandliands.

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Anyone else as confident as I am of Pavlich getting most votes for Freo?

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Anyone else as confident as I am of Pavlich getting most votes for Freo?

I'm fairly confident. He has the runs on the board, and is arguably Freo's most valuable player. He may not have been as overtly damaging as what he has been in years previous, having kicked fewer goals, but this is because he shifted up field for a majority of the season, with quite a few stints in the midfield. He's been just as damaging as what he was playing up forward for all of last year.

Read my analysis of Pav vs. Sandilands:

What are peoples thoughts on the Most Votes at Freo?

Haven't included Freo in any of my multis up until now, but after having a look at the market for Most Votes i'm convinced Pav should be favourite, or at least shorter odds than the $3.75 that the TAB are giving.

I compared his performance this year to that of last year, when he polled 17 ahead of Sandilands on 10, and saw a few things of note. I know using stats to try and determine the Brownlow should be fraught with care, but it's always worth noting. The similarities in Pav's 2 years start and end with the fact he has played 19 games in both 2009 and 2008.

Now for the differences: He has kicked less goals this year (28) than he did in 2008 (67), but on the other hand he has averaged a career high 21.7 possessions this year compared to 18.2 the year prior. These two stats can be attributed to the fact Pav has played further up the ground this year, with a few stints in the midfield. This fact also accounts for the career best number of tackles he laid this year (72 at an average of 3.8) compared to 2008 (average of 1.7), which says to me he would still have caught the eye of the umpires despite having not played as a deep forward and thus not kicking as many goals as what he usually would (which would've made him noticeable to umpires in the years prior).

Sandilands has had a very similar year to last year statistically, and has played 2 less games than he did in 2008 (1 more than Pav did this year). The only noticeable improvement would be that he has averaged 33 hitouts compared to 29.4 in 2008. I also go by the notion that ruckman aren't usually renowned for polling all that well, and in particular obtaining more than 10 votes which i think Pav can achieve.

Thoughts?

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

I'm fairly confident. He has the runs on the board, and is arguably Freo's most valuable player. He may not have been as overtly damaging as what he has been in years previous, having kicked fewer goals, but this is because he shifted up field for a majority of the season, with quite a few stints in the midfield. He's been just as damaging as what he was playing up forward for all of last year.

Read my analysis of Pav vs. Sandilands:

Thanks champ

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Where are you guys doing these multis?
Centrebet and Sportsbet wont let me?

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 2

Where are you guys doing these multis?
Centrebet and Sportsbet wont let me?

Sportsbet for me. Just checked and they're working...