Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 3)

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

eveyrone 100% sure the only combos that can win group 4 + 6 are

Gibbs
Vince
+ 600%

Gibbs
Akermanis
B.E

Pendlebury
Vince
+5%

Pendlebury
Akermanis
-5-7%

If gibbs and vince get up i win 600% of my investment
If any other combo mentioned above get up i BE
if any other combo no mentioned get up i lose it all

 

[jimbob7085]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Yeah i have to agree, with harvey missing fair few games and good value for Swallow, thats where my money will be come monday night. You think deledio will get most votes for your mob?

I wouldn't call it a cetainty but lids should get most votes for us. Anyone of Cousin/Tambling/Jackson could pip him though. You either pick lids or leave the market alone IMO.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

I don't understand all this talk about Harvey not going to win NM. In my opinion, he's one of 3 players that is an absolute certainty to win their club votes.

He polled 17 last year, 22 the year before and Swallow has never polled a vote in his career.

I have Harvey a clear best on in 3 games and I think he'll poll 12-14 votes which should be more than enough to win North's votes.

I think Harvey is on 8-10 but it should be enough.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Kept about 5 multis alive tonight. I had quite a few with Sk Kilda/Geelong quinella @5.50 for value.



I would now make a $3k profit with just a Judd/Black top 2...regardless of other results.

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Kept about 5 multis alive tonight. I had quite a few with Sk Kilda/Geelong quinella @5.50 for value.

I picked up some nice scratch tonight. Geelong -15.5/total score under 170.5 into the Broncos @ $7 Thank god Geelong chipped it around for the last 5 minutes. Just scraped in.

 

[The Newt]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Not a bad position to be in at all. The TAB stands to lose a fair bit of Hayes wins St. Kilda's voting.

I hope so

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

eveyrone 100% sure the only combos that can win group 4 + 6 are

Gibbs
Vince
+ 600%

Gibbs
Akermanis
B.E

Pendlebury
Vince
+5%

Pendlebury
Akermanis
-5-7%

If gibbs and vince get up i win 600% of my investment
If any other combo mentioned above get up i BE
if any other combo no mentioned get up i lose it all

Anyone?

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

yeah yeah

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Hopefully or im going to be a angry man!

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Anyone?

They are the only combinations. I think Vince is a lock and Gibbs/Pendles will be about the same, slighty favouring Gibbs. I have Taken Gibbs/Vince Pendles/Vince.

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

They are the only combinations. I think Vince is a lock and Gibbs/Pendles will be about the same, slighty favouring Gibbs. I have Taken Gibbs/Vince Pendles/Vince.

mcleod any show?

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

mcleod any show?

You wouldn't think so

 

[brent-83]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

For people after a little value, I'd create a multi or two with Brock Mclean (on Centrebet) as he currently stands at $21.

It will not take a huge amount of votes to win Melbourne - probably 6-8 at most, and while he isn't a lock by any stretch of the imagination, he has a decent ability to score votes (9 votes twice, 5 last year) and has had a few great games this year.. especially a couple in close losses where he might pick up 1-2.

Round 5 (Loss to Adelaide by 17) - 29 touches 1 goal 8 tackles 8 contested
Round 8 (Loss to Dogs by 7) - 36 touches 1 goal 7 tackles 8 contested 3 clearances
Round 14 (Win v West Coast) - 28 touches 5 tackles 11 contested 5 clearancew
Round 20 (Win v Freo) - 26 touches 2 goals 4 tackles

I think he could get 6 from that, maybe 7. (0-2 v Adelaide, 1-2 v Dogs, 0-2 v West Coast, 1-2 v Freo)

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

"players not quoted" at port looks a lock for me at the $4.00 on offer. k. cornes notorious non-poller and dom cassisi not big on the night either as a rule. this gives you boak, rodan and surjan (who has been invited to the count)

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Get Boak @ $16 on Sportsbet.

 

[brent-83]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

"players not quoted" at port looks a lock for me at the $4.00 on offer. k. cornes notorious non-poller and dom cassisi not big on the night either as a rule. this gives you boak, rodan and surjan (who has been invited to the count)

Boak or Pearce for me at Port. Definitely go with Centrebet if you wan't Boak though. $16 is the value. I wouldn't take $4 about players not quoted. Can't see Rodan getting over Pearce/Tredrea - if you think Boak is the one then take the $16.

 

[banana_bus]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Get Boak @ $16 on Sportsbet.

Pearce or Tredrea for mine.

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Walked into the TAB today to collect my winnings from last night. After that I put down a random trifecta that got up @ 255-1. So I added a few more multis

Groups:
Ablett/Gibbs/Thompson/Fev/ROK
Ablett/Hayes/Pendlebury/Vince
Ablett/Hayes/Gibbs/Vince
Ablett/Fev/ROK/Vince/Davis

Teams:
Goodes/Brown/Hasleby (little random, but I haven't got Hase in any of my multis)

 

[VINCANITY]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

what do people think Ritch's chances of rolling Vince in their group...... may have pressed the wrong button.

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

what do people think Ritch's chances of rolling Vince in their group...... may have pressed the wrong button.

*Rich. Can't see him polling more than 8-9 votes, will probably poll about 7 though. Vince is looking at around 12-17 votes.

 

[Frankie23]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

For people after a little value, I'd create a multi or two with Brock Mclean (on Centrebet) as he currently stands at $21.

It will not take a huge amount of votes to win Melbourne - probably 6-8 at most, and while he isn't a lock by any stretch of the imagination, he has a decent ability to score votes (9 votes twice, 5 last year) and has had a few great games this year.. especially a couple in close losses where he might pick up 1-2.

Round 5 (Loss to Adelaide by 17) - 29 touches 1 goal 8 tackles 8 contested
Round 8 (Loss to Dogs by 7) - 36 touches 1 goal 7 tackles 8 contested 3 clearances
Round 14 (Win v West Coast) - 28 touches 5 tackles 11 contested 5 clearancew
Round 20 (Win v Freo) - 26 touches 2 goals 4 tackles

I think he could get 6 from that, maybe 7. (0-2 v Adelaide, 1-2 v Dogs, 0-2 v West Coast, 1-2 v Freo)

Very good post, I've got an account on Centrebet and have based a few multi's around Mclean, those odds are juicy.

His only opposition would have to be Davey? possibily Sylvia. But going through Davey's matchs, when they have won or come close he hasnt had real standout games. Whilst McLean has polled well in the past.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

*Rich. Can't see him polling more than 8-9 votes, will probably poll about 7 though. Vince is looking at around 12-17 votes.

absolutely no chance rich will beat vince in this group, none at all

 

[carpsi]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

My big issue with Riewoldt, is that you need a number of BOGs to win the medal, and to be honest, he won't have enough when you consider the games that some of their midfielders have had this year. He may well poll a number of 1's, and the occasional 2/3 but it won't be enough to beat the Saints midfielder who polls the best.

Case in point - round 22 last year.

Riewoldt - 21 touches 11 marks 5 goals 5 4 frees for (no votes)
Dal Santo - 25 touches (1 vote)
Hayes - 29 touches 3 tackles (3 votes)

Milne got the 2 votes for a 24 touch 7 goal effort.

I still think Hayes is the one, and honestly believe he can win the medal and is being totally understated. I place a fair bit of emphisis on previous history and here is my Hayes breakdown.

2006

Played in 5 St Kilda wins
Polled in 3 games when gaining 26, 38, 24 touches (3,3,2)
Didn't poll in 2 games (22 and 11 touches)

2007

Played in 9 St Kilda wins
Polled in 4 games when gaining 32, 30, 19 26 touches (3,1,2,2)
Didn't poll in 5 games (17,17,28,22,16 touches)

2008

Played in 12 St Kilda wins
Polled in 7 games when gaining 28, 25, 27, 22, 25, 30, 29 touches (3,3,1,2,2,3)
Didn't poll in 5 games (17,15,20,16,16,20 touches)

2009

Played in 18 St Kilda wins
Managed 25 or more possessions 13 times during wins.
Managed 30 or more possessions 11 out of those 13 wins.

In the previous 3 years, if the Saints won and Hayes got more than 25 possessions, he has only not polled a vote once. I think he has 4 clear BOG games (5,8,14,16) and clearly 2 or 3 votes in 10 and 22. 16 votes from 6 games, 22 would not be surprise. I also like that he also polls mostly 2-3's previously.

enough said lenny is the man everyone has to get on him for top 5 and a place and st kildas most votes. Easy money!!

 

[SOUTH SUPPORTER]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Not sure if anyone has posted it, but if they have, can someone put a list in all the games that Ablett is most likely to get votes??? Cheers. If there is a list already I can't be bothered looking through all the pages as it will take forever to find it, LOL.

 

[Jonny27]

Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Im going with LeCras/Sylvia/Watson/Vince which is about 170/1 so Ill put 10$ on that. IIRC Syliva got suspended, that wont matter will it?? Also if anyone has there WCE, ADEL, ESS and MELB final tallies it would be greatly appreciated if you could post them on here so i could compare my results.