Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 3)

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Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

One more sleep to go, for what it's worth this was my midseason count:

MIDSEASON COUNT

G. Ablett (GEELONG) 16
S Johnson (GEELONG) 14
L Montagna (ST KILDA) 14
C. Judd (CARLTON) 13
N. Dal Santo (ST KILDA) 12
L Hayes (ST KILDA) 12
N Riewoldt (ST KILDA) 11
M. Murphy (CARLTON) 11
S Pendlebury (COLLINGWOOD) 10
J Akermanis (Western Bulldogs) 10
J Selwood (GEELONG) 9
W Tredrea (PORT ADELAIDE) 9
A Goodes (SYDNEY) 9
B Goddard (ST KILDA) 9
P Hasleby (FREMANTLE) 9
A Cooney (WESTERN BULLDOGS) 8
N Riewoldt (ST KILDA) 8
J Brown (BRISBANE) 8
S. Thompson (ADELAIDE) 7
D. Swan (COLLINGWOOD) 7
J Winderlich (ESSENDON) 7
A Selwood (WEST COAST) 7
B Sewell (HAWTHORN) 6
J Watson (ESSENDON) 6
M Lloyd (ESSENDON) 6
B Stanton (ESSENDON) 6
C. Cornes (PORT ADELAIDE) 6
K. Cornes (PORT ADELAIDE) 6
P. Chapman (GEELONG) 6
J Bartel (GEELONG) 6
D Kerr (WESTCOAST) 6
T Edwards (ADELAIDE) 6
J Bolton (SYDNEY) 6
B Kirk (SYDNEY) 6
D Giansiracusa (WESTERN BULLDOGS) 6
D Hale (NORTH MELBOURNE) 5
R Shaw (SYDNEY) 5
B. Gibbs (CARLTON) 5
T Lockyer (COLLINGWOOD) 5
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

One more sleep to go, for what it's worth this was my midseason count:

MIDSEASON COUNT

G. Ablett (GEELONG) 16
S Johnson (GEELONG) 14
L Montagna (ST KILDA) 14
C. Judd (CARLTON) 13
N. Dal Santo (ST KILDA) 12
L Hayes (ST KILDA) 12
N Riewoldt (ST KILDA) 11
M. Murphy (CARLTON) 11
S Pendlebury (COLLINGWOOD) 10
J Akermanis (Western Bulldogs) 10
J Selwood (GEELONG) 9
W Tredrea (PORT ADELAIDE) 9
A Goodes (SYDNEY) 9
B Goddard (ST KILDA) 9
P Hasleby (FREMANTLE) 9
A Cooney (WESTERN BULLDOGS) 8
N Riewoldt (ST KILDA) 8


Nice count, make Stevie J look that much more tempting to lead at round 11. However, bit of a double up with Riewoldt there :p.

Agree with BB, I have Sandilands in my multi's and all these votes for Haselby worry me.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Gday fellas,
Both Burgatron and Champion data (I think) have Goodwin to win the Crows. What are your thoughts on him? Tempting at $21...
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Nice count, make Stevie J look that much more tempting to lead at round 11. However, bit of a double up with Riewoldt there :p.

Agree with BB, I have Sandilands in my multi's and all these votes for Haselby worry me.
Stevie J was great first half of season. Can he take some Ablett votes to win Leader at round 11?
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Does anyone in here rate Adam Goodes a chance?

i think he is too far back in a middle of the road side, to be considered a chance. Currently at odds of $12.00 but i think that is far too short personally.

Possible three votes matches: (2) R11 v HAW, R19 v RICH Possible minor votes matches: (5) R2 v HAW, R7 v GEEL, R10 v WB, R12 v COLL, R21 v COLL Missed matches: Nil
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Get your money on Judd for leader at round 11. He had an awesome start to the season and their is potentially only 1 game that he is certain not to poll in, for the first 11 games.

Hayes and Judd way overs for leader at round 11. IMO. If hes within 3 votes of the lead at round 9 than he will take a BOG in round 10 and another very good performance in round 11. He could get 5 votes in those 2 games. Im really starting to get some strong vibe towards Judd to take the medal and lead at half way.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Hey guys, finished off my count for this year

I think Judd's a great chance to lead after round 11 and be very close at the end, although I have Stevie J in front after 11 on 15 votes, 1 clear of Judd and 2 clear of Hayes.

For betting (apart from the obvious players I have leading their teams by a long way), Ablett in Group 2 (TAB), Gibbs in Group 4 and Fev in Group 7 are what I'm the most confident on. In the head to heads I think Montagna and Boyd are the most solid.

For value I like anything on Hayes, Judd at 4.75 to win Group 1 (much better odds than their head to head, as I consider the group a 2 horse race), Higgins at $6 to win group 8 and Jolly at $8 to knock off Mitch Clark and win group 9. I only have Daniel Jackson 2 votes behind Deledio for Richmond so I like $13 on him to win the Tigers too.

Top 10:
Ablett 24
Judd 23
Swan 23
Mitchell 20 (ineligible)
Montagna 20
Hayes 19
Dal Santo 19
Goodes 19
Black 17
Selwood 17
Gibbs 17

Teams:

Adelaide - Vince 14, Thompson 12, Porplyzia 9

Brisbane - Black 17, Brown 15, Rich/Power 9

Carlton - Judd 23, Gibbs 17, Murphy 16

Collingwood - Swan 23, Didak 12, Davis/Pendlebury 10

Essendon - Watson 13, Stanton 10, Winderlich 7

Fremantle - Sandilands 10, Hasleby 9, Pavlich 7

Geelong - Ablett 24, Selwood 17, Johnson 16

Hawthorn - Mitchell 20, Sewell 12, Franklin 5

Melbourne - Davey 7, Bruce 4, Moloney/Jurrah 3

North Melbourne - Harvey 9, Swallow/Gibson 5

Port - Pearce/Boak 8, Salopek/Tredrea 6

Richmond - Deledio 6, Tambling 5, Cousins/Jackson 4

St Kilda - Montagna 20, Hayes/Dal Santo 19

Sydney - Goodes 19, Kirk 9, O'Keefe 7

West Coast - Selwood 11, LeCras 7, Priddis 6

Bulldogs - Boyd 15, Cooney 13, Akermanis 11
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

almost identical to my count give or take 1 or 2 votes here and there echelon. Rate Judd a huge chance aswell. I do have Le Cras winning WCE in the end though, but it's pretty much a raffle.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

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Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

What are people's top 3 bets with 1 sleep to go?

(Which betting agency allows you to multi team vote winners?)

Hayes to win.
Hayes top 5.
Hayes/Swan quinella.

Hayes is so far over the odds it's not funny. Any bet involving him is great value.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

put stkilda and geelong into a few of my multis to boost the odds so now looking at pretty big payouts if all of:

vince > rich, a selwood, hasleby, hodge, akermanis
ablett > goddard, boyd, brown, didak, murphy
swan > dal, goodes, judd, black, mitchell

all favourites in their groups and i am pretty confident
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

I don't think Ablett will win, Chappy, Stevie J and Selwood will take too many votes off of him. Wouldn't be suprised if Judd/Goodes or Black win.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Just done a review for Adam Goodes season:

Rd 1 = No Votes
Rd 2= (Will poll 1 or 2 votes)
Rd 3-7 = No votes
Rd 8 = (will poll 1 or 2 votes)
Rd 9-10= No votes
Rd 11= 3 votes
Rd 12-18= No votes
Rd 19= 3 votes
Rd 20 = (will be lucky to poll 1 vote)
Rd 21= No Votes
Rd 22- (will poll 2 or 3 votes)


Will be Laying Goodes, 12.00 is a bit short for mine, and i dont think he will get a place either.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Just done a review for Adam Goodes season:

Rd 1 = No Votes
Rd 2= (Will poll 1 or 2 votes)
Rd 3-7 = No votes
Rd 8 = (will poll 1 or 2 votes)
Rd 9-10= No votes
Rd 11= 3 votes
Rd 12-18= No votes
Rd 19= 3 votes
Rd 20 = (will be lucky to poll 1 vote)
Rd 21= No Votes
Rd 22- (will be lucky to poll 1 vote)


Will be Laying Goodes, 12.00 is a bit short for mine, and i dont think he will get a place either.

Goodes, guaranteed votes in Rd 22. Easily top 3 on ground. Top 2 probably. I would go 3. Black 2. Goodes
 

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Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 3)

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