Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

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Hmmm, I know a lot of people are saying it is too big a risk to use people in 100% of multis but is it?? By putting say Watson in 70-80% of multis, you are giving yourself a hope of winning something, or at least getting something back if he loses. But I have tried a few potential multis, and it seems a lot of trouble including a player in MOST mutlis, and not all of them- it leads to more bets, and less reward; the win wont be as big. So for me, I am probably going to be using Judd/Watson as genuine anchors and putting them in every bet. If both get up, as they most probably should I will be in a great position for the night. I feel as though I have got to take the risk, as small as that is imo, and use the 2 players I feel as most likely, to take out their teams most votes.

After this, I will be using Thompson / Goodes as secondary anchors, and Riewoldt / Brown as just semi anchors. Multi these with your value players, and hopefully you end you end up with $$$$$ :thumbsu:

I've been trying to tease out a system and have arrived at the same spot, can't find an economical way to cover the possibility of one anchor losing without sending my total outlay through the roof (and risking much more in the case of a total shock). Will probably adopt a system like this and take a chance of a total loss in return for smaller outlay and better returns. Won't be using Judd though at $1.07, just too short for my liking
 
Team Brownlow markets at the TAB opened up two weeks ago in WA. People have stated that you will be able to multi them at the conclusion of R22, so I wouldnt be writing it off yet.

Most team votes have been up the entire season in WA. I expect you will be able to multi them at the end of the season.

In other news, St.Kilda is going to be an absolute raffle. How do people rate NDS chances? Polls well and was way over priced when I got on him at $31 now into $12, could potentially be this years Hayes.

I have NDS polling in Rounds: 2,3,4,9,10,12,13,21. If he can manage some BOG's in these he is a genuine contender for Saints. However stay away from St.Kilda in the multi bets.
 

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I've been trying to tease out a system and have arrived at the same spot, can't find an economical way to cover the possibility of one anchor losing without sending my total outlay through the roof (and risking much more in the case of a total shock). Will probably adopt a system like this and take a chance of a total loss in return for smaller outlay and better returns. Won't be using Judd though at $1.07, just too short for my liking

Yep, if I am still keen on using the same players after this weeks games I am looking at making 30 bets with Watson/Judd as anchors. If I was however to use Watson/Thompson/Goodes as semi anchors and use them in different bets I would be looking at 50+ bets with a bigger outlay for probably a worse return.

I think I am going to rely on Watson. He should do it easy anyway.

Risk v Reward :thumbsu:
 
Nice count.

For Port, I'm 90% sure it will go to Rodan or Cassisi. Theoretically it's $2.50 for either of them to win. Guess not really that much value but I like it.

Thompson/Watson/Goodes/JVolt/Brown are players that should be safe. I've spread my bets out in excel but if either of Thompson/Watson/Goodes lose I barely profit. :eek: I guess they should all win but it's a tad daunting!

Rodan? I can't see it this year. Would be interested to hear what games you have him polling in. I think its a Cassisi/Boak job personally but not very confident.
 
Geez, no-one likes Rodan! ;)

I had him on 2 last year and he polled 7. Maybe I've just noticed him a lot more this year. As I said, Centrebet have him 2nd fave so someone has noticed him there too.

As for Saints, I give NDS a chance and is great value but it's too hard to call with Hayes/Montagna (and Goddard too!)
 
Round 5 - 3 votes was BOG
Round 7 - I have Rodan on 0 votes
Round 15 - I have Rodan on 2 (they lost to collingwood, Swan will get the 3 for sure, Rodan might not even get the 2 as pendles was awseome.)

Thats 5

Also have him polling in 1 vote in Round 6

Bringing him to 6.

Who'd you have polling in round 7 then.
 
Just looked on the tabsportsbet website and has confirmed that the most legs you can have in a multi is 10. Thats perfect, because there are 10 teams I am probably going to be basing my bets around so will have 1 HOPEFUL bet with all 10 in it :p

The only thing is though the odds will be into the thousands for some 8, 9, or 10 leg bets... Does anyone know the max odds you can have for a bet? I know last year on sportsbet.com.au there was no such limit, and the only thing in place was a max payout of $100 000 per bet. I am pretty sure it is either 3000-1, or 5000-1 for TABsportsbet, but can not find anything on the website.
 
Just looked on the tabsportsbet website and has confirmed that the most legs you can have in a multi is 10. Thats perfect, because there are 10 teams I am probably going to be basing my bets around so will have 1 HOPEFUL bet with all 10 in it :p

The only thing is though the odds will be into the thousands for some 8, 9, or 10 leg bets... Does anyone know the max odds you can have for a bet? I know last year on sportsbet.com.au there was no such limit, and the only thing in place was a max payout of $100 000 per bet. I am pretty sure it is either 3000-1, or 5000-1 for TABsportsbet, but can not find anything on the website.

3000-1 i beleive.
 

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Pretty sure TAB is more than 3000-1. I have one multi that was 1/4 (Black and Tredrea tieing) and the payout was $850+. So I assuming the odds would have been ~3500-1
 
The TAB can vary, while you can use 3000-1 as a rough guide, it may sometimes accept more and other times less, all depends on the total liability they have for the legs included.

If even 10 of us went down and tried to put the same multi on at 3000-1 for $10, after the first few they would most likely begin to be rejected.
 
i'm pretty sure it's 3000-1 and i too tryed to find out the other day but couldnt find it anyone on their help page (piece of shit help page it is too)

For port, i definitely wouldn't discount Rodan nor would i even bother looking at his stats for the year, he is one of the few players in the league, who can touch the ball 14-20 times and easily pick up 2 / 3 votes. His break aways from packs set him apart from any other clearance player in the game at times. For the person who said he might not even poll against Collingwood, i would bet my house that he will poll, and more likely 2 / 3 votes. The only reason he probably he might not get 3 votes is because they lost by 26 points. For what its worth, i have him on 6 votes and have Cassis and Pearce both equally leading on 11 votes. I have Boak on 8 votes. The Richmond v Port game this week shapes up as such a massive game for distinguishing a possible multi winner for these two teams.

In relation to NDS, i have him currently on 8 votes (probably the lowest i've seen on here), i actually have him polling in 6 games, with 1 BOG in round 4 and the rest 1 vote games. I am confident that Montagna / Goddard and Hayes will all outpoll him.
 
Forthwrite Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

Does anyone remember how many we all got correct last year based on what the majority in last years thread were thinking?


2009 Team Winners –
Geelong – Gary Ablett
Carlton – Chris Judd
St Kilda – Lenny Hayes
Brisbane – Simon Black / Jonathan Brown
Sydney – Adam Goodes
Dogs – Matthew Boyd
Hawthorn – Sam Mitchell / Brad Sewell
Collingwood – Scott Pendlebury
Adelaide – Bernie Vince
Essendon – Jobe Watson / Jason Winderlich
Fremantle – Mathew Pavlich / Aaron Sandilands
North Melbourne – Brent Harvey
West Coast – Mark LeCras
Port Adelaide – Warren Tredrea / David Rodan
Richmond – Matthew Richardson
Melbourne – Aaron Davey



These are the winners from last year, i would say BF posters predicted about 12 -13 of the teams (pretty good). The bold ones above i think most people found surprising. Hopefully we can have similar success this year. :thumbsu:
 
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