Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[sfear]

can someone explain what 'reaching a liability' means?
is it that they will restrict the maximum odds you can get on a multi, therefore limiting the potential payout?

 

[Vapor]

can someone explain what 'reaching a liability' means?
is it that they will restrict the maximum odds you can get on a multi, therefore limiting the potential payout?

No I think it means they won't allow you to bet on combinations of specific players after a certain amount of money has been collectively bet on that same multi.

I remember last year some people here put down quite a bit of money down on multis involving 5 or 6 specific players to lead their team votes(can't remember who exactly, but I do seem to remember it maybe involving A. Swallow and K. Jack) which were paying 4 or 5 figure odds, and the TAB then stopped letting punters put down money on that same combination of players

 

[sfear]

No I think it means they won't allow you to bet on combinations of specific players after a certain amount of money has been collectively bet on that same multi.

I remember last year some people here put down quite a bit of money down on multis involving 5 or 6 specific players to lead their team votes(can't remember who exactly, but I do seem to remember it maybe involving A. Swallow and K. Jack) which were paying 4 or 5 figure odds, and the TAB then stopped letting punters put down money on that same combination of players

ahh ok, that makes sense. thanks

 

[daleo83]

Griffen - 3
Murphy - 2
S.Thompson - 1

 

[daleo83]

kreuzer - 3
murphy - 2
gibbs - 1

 

[char]

WCE v PORT
3. S. Hurn
2. M. Priddis
1. M. LeCras

Anyone got votes/thoughts on HAW v GCFC, ESS v NM and STK v GEEL?

 

[Dr Awkward]

WB v Adel

Griffen 2.75 (3)
Ward 1.5 (2)
Murphy 1.25 (1)
Gia 0.25
S. Thompson 0.25

 

[uptheblues]

Round 13 Votes
WB v ADEL
3. R.Griffen
2. R.Murphy
1. C.Ward

HAW v GC
3. S.Savage
2. S.Mitchell
1. L.Breust

NM v ESS
3. D.Wells
2. B.Harvey
1. A.Swallow

STK v GEEL
3. J.Corey
2. P.Chapman
1. N.Dal Santo

RICH v BRIS
3. D.Martin
2. T.Cotchin
1. M.Leuenberger

CARL v SYD
3. M.Kreuzer
2. M.Murphy
1. B.Gibbs

MELB v FREO
3. B.Green
2. S.Martin
1. J.Watts

WC v PORT
3. S.Hurn
2. M.Priddis
1. M.Lecras

Found it fair bit harder giving votes this week compared to last week... Would appreciate any feedback/comparisons

 

[uptheblues]

Overall Leaderboard and Team Leaders after Round 13
18 - M.Murphy
14 - C.Judd
12 - D.Thomas, B.Moloney, J.Watson, S.Mitchell
11 - D.Cox, J.Bolton, S.Pendlebury, J.Selwood, L.Franklin, D.Martin, M.Boyd
10 - N.Fyfe, A.Goodes, G.Ablett, A.Swallow
9 - M.Priddis, D.Wells

Team Leaders
Adelaide: S.Thompson (8)
Brisbane: S.Black + J.Adcock (5)
Carlton: M.Murphy (18)
Collingwood: D.Thomas (12)
Essendon: J.Watson (12)
Fremantle: N.Fyfe (10)
Geelong: J.Selwood (11)
Gold Coast: G.Ablett (10)
Hawthorn: L.Franklin (11)
Melbourne: B.Moloney (12)
North Melbourne: A.Swallow (10)
Port Adelaide: T.Chaplin (4)
Richmond: D.Martin (11)
St Kilda: B.Goddard (6)
Sydney: J.Bolton (11)
Western Bulldogs: M.Boyd (11)
West Coast: D.Cox (11)

 

[bob7965]

Round 13 Votes
WB v ADEL
3. R.Griffen
2. R.Murphy
1. C.Ward

HAW v GC
3. S.Savage
2. S.Mitchell
1. L.Breust

NM v ESS
3. D.Wells
2. B.Harvey
1. A.Swallow

STK v GEEL
3. J.Corey
2. P.Chapman
1. N.Dal Santo

RICH v BRIS
3. D.Martin
2. T.Cotchin
1. M.Leuenberger

CARL v SYD
3. M.Kreuzer
2. M.Murphy
1. B.Gibbs

MELB v FREO
3. B.Green
2. S.Martin
1. J.Watts

WC v PORT
3. S.Hurn
2. M.Priddis
1. M.Lecras

Found it fair bit harder giving votes this week compared to last week... Would appreciate any feedback/comparisons

Where are you getting your votes from mate? Did you watch all 8 games? I'm just curious because the couple of games I dont see I like to feed thoughts, ideas off others etc and want to know there coming from genuine research and not just stats. I think its great if you're watching all games but for us to beat the bookies and all benefit we need as many genuine contributors as possible.

Anyway I know there are still 12 rounds left but does anyone else feel its almost already game over. I have Murphy leading with Judd in second and feel only Pendlebury can catch them. Selwood suspended, and others like Swan and Watson not polling recently I can't see them being caught. With a good run home it's fair to say that Carlton will win atleast 8-9 of the next 13, bar injury Murphy and Judd have the potential to poll another 10+ each. What's everyone else's thoughts??

Great to hear about team leaders on TAB's facebook page but I couldnt see the comment if anyone could guide me??

 

[premiers06]

Where are you getting your votes from mate? Did you watch all 8 games? I'm just curious because the couple of games I dont see I like to feed thoughts, ideas off others etc and want to know there coming from genuine research and not just stats. I think its great if you're watching all games but for us to beat the bookies and all benefit we need as many genuine contributors as possible.

Anyway I know there are still 12 rounds left but does anyone else feel its almost already game over. I have Murphy leading with Judd in second and feel only Pendlebury can catch them. Selwood suspended, and others like Swan and Watson not polling recently I can't see them being caught. With a good run home it's fair to say that Carlton will win atleast 8-9 of the next 13, bar injury Murphy and Judd have the potential to poll another 10+ each. What's everyone else's thoughts??

Great to hear about team leaders on TAB's facebook page but I couldnt see the comment if anyone could guide me??

I can't speak for uptheblues but i generally watch the games online on the afl website. I won't have mine done until tomorrow but generally the both of us have been on the same page for most of the matches.

With your second point to me it's a real 3 horse race, however I am liking Murphy's chances, he seems to be playing consistent football every week which gives him a greater spread of potential votes. My dark horse from outside the 3 is boyd, especially if the dogs get rolling but I doubt it will happen.

Also the quote about most team votes for multis is on the tab facebook page.

 

[uptheblues]

Where are you getting your votes from mate? Did you watch all 8 games? I'm just curious because the couple of games I dont see I like to feed thoughts, ideas off others etc and want to know there coming from genuine research and not just stats. I think its great if you're watching all games but for us to beat the bookies and all benefit we need as many genuine contributors as possible.

Anyway I know there are still 12 rounds left but does anyone else feel its almost already game over. I have Murphy leading with Judd in second and feel only Pendlebury can catch them. Selwood suspended, and others like Swan and Watson not polling recently I can't see them being caught. With a good run home it's fair to say that Carlton will win atleast 8-9 of the next 13, bar injury Murphy and Judd have the potential to poll another 10+ each. What's everyone else's thoughts??

Great to hear about team leaders on TAB's facebook page but I couldnt see the comment if anyone could guide me??

Hey mate,
Yeah as premiers06 said, I, too, try to get around to watching as many of the games each weekend as possible. And, as he does, if I miss any over the weekend, I nearly always get around to watching the rest of them on the AFL website on either the Sunday night or Monday (Uni holidays/Uni in general allow plenty of time for this ). I totally agree with what you're saying though, it can't just be put to stats if we're to get a true gauge of what the tally is going to be like at the end of the year. If I do happen to be unable to watch a specific game, which occasionally happens, there are a number of other posters on BF which often may see a game that I haven't and I compare their votes as well as others to come up with my final votes. However even if I do see all the games I try to compare as many weekly votes as possible to ensure they are as accurate as possible.

On Marc Murphy, I think you're on the money. He is having an incredible year and is playing consistently good footy. And you're right in that Carlton have a cracking run home which will give not only him, but also Judd as many opportunities as possible to poll in as many games as they can. I also agree with you on Pendlebury, who although not playing his best footy (consistency rather than performance) has still managed to poll well, and should continue to do so (as he did in 2010) so if he strings a couple of BOG's together he will be right up there come the end of the year as well.

I also think Matthew Boyd is an interesting one. Seems to have polled very well this year despite the Dog's poor form. He is a proven Brownlow Vote getter, and if the Bulldog's can get a few more wins on the board (which they should) then he's another one that could come into contention at the end of the year (given that he keeps up current form)

Hope thats answered any questions you had
totally agree with the contribution, need everyone to put in if we're going to be successful come the end of the year
Cheers
uptheblues

 

[Crow_Sting]

Brisban vs Richmond Round 13
3. Trent Cotchin
2. Alex Rance
1. Dustin Martin

 

[Mudeo]

With Travis Boaks polling history i think he could sneak a 1 in the WCE game.

Hurn
LeCras
Boak

 

[Dr Awkward]

Some votes:

Western Bulldogs Adelaide
Griffen 2.75 (3)
Murphy 1.75 (2)
Ward 1.25 (2)
Giansiracusa 0.25

Brisbane Richmond
Martin 2.5 (3)
Cotchin 2.25 (2)
Luenberger 1 (1)
Houli 0.25


Melbourne Fremantle
Green 2.5 (3)
Martin 2.5 (2)
Watts 0.75 (1)
Mc Kenzie/Scully 0.25

Carlton Sydney
Kruezer 2.75 (3)
Murphy 2.25 (2)
Gibbs 1 (1)

West Coast Port Adelaide
Hurn 3 (3)
Priddis 1.75 (2)
Le Cras 0.75 (1)
Boak 0.25
Kerr 0.25

 

[jefffff34]

What are people's thoughts about Travis Cloke? I'm looking at things from a Shane Woewodin perspective in that a man only needs 7 or 8 brilliant games and can have 14 rubbish games and win the medal.

He has received coaches votes in 7 games so far this year out of 12, and my tally has him on 9 votes at the moment.

I have hit him up big at Betfair with a view to lay when it appears suitable.

My reasoning is he is the only player on my list in my top 19 players (players that have 9+ votes) that had odds of over $70. I have Judd also on 9 votes and he is $4.80 on Betfair. Fair to say those odds stood out.

Thoughts?

PS. I have four ineligible players in the top 9 at the moment, the AFL will be hoping for Mitchell, Selwood, Franklin and Thomas to quieten down a bit I reckon.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Melb v Rich

Moloney 2.5 (3)
Scully 1.75 (2)
Watts 1 (1)
Foley 0.5
Trengove 0.25

Mitchell 2.25 (3)
Birchall 1.5 (2)
Sheils 1.25 (1)
I. Smith 1

Not much contribution this week! Anyone else got votes to share?

 

[bob7965]

Melb v Rich

Moloney 2.5 (3)
Scully 1.75 (2)
Watts 1 (1)
Foley 0.5
Trengove 0.25

Mitchell 2.25 (3)
Birchall 1.5 (2)
Sheils 1.25 (1)
I. Smith 1

Not much contribution this week! Anyone else got votes to share?

Hey mate

Freo vs Bris

Pavlich 3
Broughton 2
Black/Redden/Fyfe 1

Black gave a couple of sprays but has the best polling history. I thought Redden was better but a little unknown. Fyfe was lively, flying for marks, but missed his chances at goal. An important game in team leader votes etc.

Agree with hawks vs. Essendon. Mitchell really closing the gap now!! Didnt see melb vs. rich.

Carl vs WC

Priddis 3

Lynch was good but reported twice for hits on Murphy, I think may hurt him.
Quite confident Murphy wont poll although he did play well.

Lynch, Scotland, Kerr and possibly Yarran to share the 2 and 1.

Anyone else??

 

[bob7965]

What are people's thoughts about Travis Cloke? I'm looking at things from a Shane Woewodin perspective in that a man only needs 7 or 8 brilliant games and can have 14 rubbish games and win the medal.

He has received coaches votes in 7 games so far this year out of 12, and my tally has him on 9 votes at the moment.

I have hit him up big at Betfair with a view to lay when it appears suitable.

My reasoning is he is the only player on my list in my top 19 players (players that have 9+ votes) that had odds of over $70. I have Judd also on 9 votes and he is $4.80 on Betfair. Fair to say those odds stood out.

Thoughts?

PS. I have four ineligible players in the top 9 at the moment, the AFL will be hoping for Mitchell, Selwood, Franklin and Thomas to quieten down a bit I reckon.

Good on you for having an opinion but honestly I think you will be the only one that feels this way. I will give you 10000000-1 if Judd and Cloke are on the same votes. He is competing with Pendles, Swan, Daisy, Shaw etc and he is also a KPP having a good year nothing outstanding.

Waste of coin.

 

[jefffff34]

To be honest the Pies votes this year are quite spread out at the moment.

Thomas is on 10, Cloke 9, Pendlebury 8, Swan 7, Shaw 3 (three players on 4 too).

Just an opinion, and the obvious intention is to lay.

 

[uptheblues]

Melb v Rich

Moloney 2.5 (3)
Scully 1.75 (2)
Watts 1 (1)
Foley 0.5
Trengove 0.25

Mitchell 2.25 (3)
Birchall 1.5 (2)
Sheils 1.25 (1)
I. Smith 1

Not much contribution this week! Anyone else got votes to share?

Hey mate sorry only just got round to the last couple of games this morning. Here's what I got:
HAW v ESS
3. S.Mitchell
2. G.Birchall
1. L. Shiels

GCFC v WB
3. R. Griffen
2. M.Boyd
1. D. Giansiracusa

RICH v MELB
3. B. Moloney
2. J.Watts
1. T.Scully

SYD v COLL
3. T. Cloke
2. D. Swan
1. L.Ball

FREM v BRIS
3. M. Pavlich
2. G. Broughton
1. S. Black

GEEL v ADEL
3. C. Enright
2. C. Ling
1. A. Christensen

CARL v WCE
3. M. Priddis
2. Q. Lynch
1. D.Kerr

PORT v NM
3. D.Petrie
2. T.Goldstein
1. J.Ziebell

 

[uptheblues]

[FONT=&quot]Overall Leaderboard and Team Leaders after Round 14
18 - M.Murphy[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]15 – B.Moloney, S.Mitchell
14 - C.Judd[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]13 – M.Boyd
12 - D.Thomas, J.Watson, M.Priddis
11 - D.Cox, J.Bolton, S.Pendlebury, J.Selwood, L.Franklin, D.Martin,[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]10 - N.Fyfe, A.Goodes, G.Ablett, A.Swallow, D.Swan
9 - D.Wells, R.Griffin, M.Pavlich

Team Leaders
Adelaide: S.Thompson (8)
Brisbane: S.Black (6)
Carlton: M.Murphy (18)
Collingwood: D.Thomas (12)
Essendon: J.Watson (12)
Fremantle: N.Fyfe (10)
Geelong: J.Selwood (11)
Gold Coast: G.Ablett (10)
Hawthorn: S.Mitchell (15)
Melbourne: B.Moloney (15)
North Melbourne: A.Swallow (10)
Port Adelaide: T.Chaplin (4)
Richmond: D.Martin (11)
St Kilda: B.Goddard (6)
Sydney: J.Bolton (11)
Western Bulldogs: M.Boyd (13)
West Coast: M.Priddis (12)[/FONT]

 

[PRoberts14]

going off your leader board b.moloney will have a good chance to win the brownlow. jamar back and the dees have 5 games left where he could dominate the centre clearances. dont see many in his team that could snatch votes like in the other big teams. though like all years the favourites rule comes into play, thats why i reackon pendles will be further ahead then most think.

 

[Dr Awkward]

though like all years the favourites rule comes into play, thats why i reackon pendles will be further ahead then most think.

I agree with this, however I reckon Murphy would be pretty well liked also.

Nice work uptheblues.

 

[Eth]

Yep, I reckon if you're going to get on Moloney, do it quick.

He plays brilliantly whenever Jamar's in the team.