Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)

[max grande]

Fletcher will struggle. I don't think he will poll over 5 votes. He had that game against Carlton where he might get 3 and played ok last week but is no moral to get a vote (even though i think he will poll 1), but apart from that he hasn't stood out enough that he will get too many more votes.

I just looked him up and he has only scored over 10 once in his career (11 back in 2000). In fact, he has only score 6+ votes 3 times in his 19 year career, so those thinking Fletcher will poll well for Essendon have to be kidding themselves.

 

[Borgsta]

2nd most for Essendon behind Watson.

I think Fletch is more likely than Boyd or Hall. He might get beaten by Hurley and Zaharakis.

Seriously Hall kicked 6 goals and was the only thing that kept the Dogs close. He'll get a vote before Fletcher.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Are you saying Fletcher will get more votes than Stanton?

7 votes in 2010 = 2nd most

Seriously Hall kicked 6 goals and was the only thing that kept the Dogs close. He'll get a vote before Fletcher.

Fletcher was hardly on Hall until late in the game. I don't think Hall's performance would impact on his polling ability.

I'm not sure what the stats are in 8 goal+ losses, but I imagine all 6 votes will go to the winning team a very high proportion of the time. That's why I can't see Hall polling ahead of Fletcher. Nothing against Hall, but 48 or so points is a very big gap between the teams.

 

[Hucky]

I don't think Hall's performance would impact on his polling ability.

This seems like a blatant contradiction to me. Of course his performance will influence how he polls. I'd go as far as to say it'd be the main influence.

Would be interested to know how many players have kicked 6 goals in a match, losing or otherwise, and not polled a vote.

 

[Thedeftouch]

The Kangaroos count looks like the most interesting...

My simulator has it:

Swallow - 41%
Wells - 37%
Petrie - 12%
Goldstein - 7%
Ziebell - 2%

 

[laam]

Eeither way, whether fletecher or hall polls the 1 will have zero influence on essendon most team votes or dogs most team votes or overall winner.

Therefore

WHO CARES

 

[Ben the Gooner]

This seems like a blatant contradiction to me. Of course his performance will influence how he polls. I'd go as far as to say it'd be the main influence.

Would be interested to know how many players have kicked 6 goals in a match, losing or otherwise, and not polled a vote.

I meant in terms of goals kicked on Fletcher.

I'd love to see those stats as well, actually. I'm sure Jack Riewoldt has done that in the past couple of years.

One more comment on Hall's game is that he dropped a number of simple marks and shanked a number of kicks. Far from his best 6 goal game.

Eeither way, whether fletecher or hall polls the 1 will have zero influence on essendon most team votes or dogs most team votes or overall winner.

Therefore

WHO CARES

Groups and H2Hs?

 

[premiers06]

Eeither way, whether fletecher or hall polls the 1 will have zero influence on essendon most team votes or dogs most team votes or overall winner.

Therefore

WHO CARES

This. Can't beleive Fletcher is being talked about so much in a brownlow thread.

 

[max grande]

The Kangaroos count looks like the most interesting...

My simulator has it:

Swallow - 41%
Wells - 37%
Petrie - 12%
Goldstein - 7%
Ziebell - 2%

The North Melbourne count is the one im struggling with the most also. My count is slightly different to yours, i have Swallow and Wells pretty much equal (Wells slightly ahead, maybe 1-2 votes). Neither player has been a prolific vote getter in the past, Swallow got 11 votes from 22 games last year and 7 the year before that. Wells got 9 votes from 19 games last year and 2 the year before that. But in 2009 got 9 votes from 15 games, so not too bad a strike rate. Wells has potential to poll well and he has starred in many games this year.

I have Petrie, Goldstein and Ziebell pretty even about 4-5 votes behind these two and a couple of big games could see them right into contention. Petrie has starred in many games up forward booting some big bags, but has never been a big vote poller outside of 2010 (he got 11).

Based on that, id include Wells and Swallow in most multis, but Wells looks the value to me.

 

[max grande]

Im also keen to see how people view the Port Adelaide vote count. Boak looks the obvious pick to me, but i dont have him on many votes. I have him on roughly 4-5 votes depending how he polled in the Crows game back in Round 4.

Next best player is a bit of a lottery to me out of Gray, Brogan, Hartlett and maybe Thomas. They haven't won many games and have been hammered a lot this year so there wont be many votes going around, so there is room for a surprise winner.

Anyone reckon Boak can be beaten?

 

[Thedeftouch]

Im also keen to see how people view the Port Adelaide vote count. Boak looks the obvious pick to me, but i dont have him on many votes. I have him on roughly 4-5 votes depending how he polled in the Crows game back in Round 4.

Next best player is a bit of a lottery to me out of Gray, Brogan, Hartlett and maybe Thomas. They haven't won many games and have been hammered a lot this year so there wont be many votes going around, so there is room for a surprise winner.

Anyone reckon Boak can be beaten?

Chaplinho has 2 strong shots at votes, 4 or 5 votes might be enough to be the head clown of Port Power.

 

[Rippo]

You have mentioned 5 Port players there yet no mention of Westhoff who won the medal (3 votes), if by chance he pulls 1 more vote then he could draw with Boak.

For me its out of these 2 who will steal those very few votes

i don't think there is enough votes around to share with Gray, Brogan, Hartlett and Thomas for them to be a threat

 

[KardiniaPark]

7 votes in 2010 = 2nd most



Fletcher was hardly on Hall until late in the game. I don't think Hall's performance would impact on his polling ability.

I'm not sure what the stats are in 8 goal+ losses, but I imagine all 6 votes will go to the winning team a very high proportion of the time. That's why I can't see Hall polling ahead of Fletcher. Nothing against Hall, but 48 or so points is a very big gap between the teams.

I didn't ask about 2010...

 

[KardiniaPark]

You have mentioned 5 Port players there yet no mention of Westhoff who won the medal (3 votes), if by chance he pulls 1 more vote then he could draw with Boak.

For me its out of these 2 who will steal those very few votes

i don't think there is enough votes around to share with Gray, Brogan, Hartlett and Thomas for them to be a threat

I've backed Westhoff but I don't see how he can be on more than 3.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I didn't ask about 2010...

I clarified my initial statement, which was in response to Borgsta mentioning he only polled 7 last year.

Of course he won't outpoll Zaharakis and Stanton.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I clarified my initial statement, which was in response to Borgsta mentioning he only polled 7 last year.

Of course he won't outpoll Zaharakis and Stanton.

OK but he will outpoll Zaharakis, so will Heppell.

 

[jimbob7085]

Fletcher should poll last weekend and can see him being 2nd to Watson again this season. Spoiling everything that comes near him, and being an experienced player put him in a favourable position in comparison to the polling ability of other defenders.

Being a 50 point loss no Western Bullldogs player should poll. Even Boyd and Hall's heroics shouldn't be enough.

On the Port issue, Chaplin looks great value to me and Westhoff definitely has 2-3 votes from winning the Showdown Medal but not many other games where he could poll but it really doesn't matter. No one from Port should get to double digits. Don't have any of them more than 6 at the moment.

Boak and Gray are too short to take, it's a complete raffle unless Port win a game and one of these players gain another few votes to bring themselves into favouritism. However I still wouldn't take the risk on the short priced players then, it's just not worth it.

 

[KardiniaPark]

What do you have Stanton on ?

 

[jimbob7085]

Stanton 8, Fletcher 6. However Stanton is close to his minimum and Fletcher is on his maximum. Would not be surprised to see the gap between them a lot more on the night but Fletcher definitely could definitely end up pipping Stanton.

 

[twarby]

lol at some of these calls

 

[KardiniaPark]

It's ALIVE

 

[stuziman]

You have mentioned 5 Port players there yet no mention of Westhoff who won the medal (3 votes), if by chance he pulls 1 more vote then he could draw with Boak.

For me its out of these 2 who will steal those very few votes

i don't think there is enough votes around to share with Gray, Brogan, Hartlett and Thomas for them to be a threat

Hartlett is one who I think could upset. His run and poise off HB is very eye catching.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Chris Judd - no votes for you!

Gives Pendles a chance to catch up during Carlton's bye next week. Let's hope he rips Brisbane to shreds this weekend.

 

[carpsi]

Chris Judd - no votes for you!

Gives Pendles a chance to catch up during Carlton's bye next week. Let's hope he rips Brisbane to shreds this weekend.

Wont matter Pendles will get his week off soon

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Just ran my simulator too and it had:

36 - Fletcher, Priddis
16 - Mitchell
15 - Judd, Murphy
14 - Pendlebury

Two horse race IMO.