Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)

[Frankie23]

Another thing I have been wondering is what the best way would be to set up multis come the end of the year.. Whether it be having a number of levels of players according to confidence and coming up with various combinations or any other method those of you who are more experienced than I have used and had success with I would love to hear more about it!
Cheers

This topic of conversation will heat up more after the season finishes from past experience. The best thing you can do at the moment is keep your club totals up to date as that is the info you base your bets around...

I won't go into to much detail and I'll do a full write up after the season has finished but keeping it really short, most people start with a few anchors. Last year the three popular choices were Watson, Brown and S.Thompson. Together they combined for around $1.90-2, and were the bases for each bet (thankfully all won!). Then it is a matter of combinations, making sure you hedge your bets and have all bases covered, so even if there is a one huge upset you can at least break even. Players like Boak and Hayes last year were in a lot of multis, and were covered by Cassisi and Goddard. Even though I was very confident of Boak/Hayes getting up, I outlayed a fair amount on the other two to hedge my bets (they got up and many were happy). Then you add value players to the end of a few multis and your looking at ripping odds (Pendlebury was ripping value and just fell short last year)

The key is spread your bets with different players and combinations, I had over 100+ last year and I think 11 won (not that many). But we are playing with huge odds that I still made a decent packet as did many others..

 

[Grimmjow]

Oh, don't get me wrong, Kerr and Embley will be way back when it comes to the final tally, but along with Nic Nat and Shuey, there's enough BOGs going away from Priddis in Eagles wins (think very early in the year when Cox, Shuey and Kerr were in ripping form) to drag him back. That's a new phenomenon for Priddis.

As for multis, I'm just praying they let us do them!

I think people are getting carried away with the recent form of Cox. I have both Cox and Priddis with 3.5 BOGs and petty 1 votes to accumulate their current total.

To say Nic Nat, Shuey, Kerr, Embley will take votes away from Priddis is not a good case to use. FYI i have Cox on 17 and Priddis 16 - and i've been really generous to Cox. Its much closer then what TAB currently have $8 and $41 and heres hoping they get seduced by Cox and open a healthy price for Priddis in team market.

Its a midfielders award for a reason.

 

[Halli]

My current tally is as follows:

1. Sam Mitchell 20-30*
2. Chris Judd 20-29
3. Marc Murphy 17-29
4. Scott Pendlebury 17-28
5. Matthew Boyd 14-20
6. Dean Cox 13-22
7. Dane Swan 13-20
8. Joel Selwood 13-19*
9. Brent Moloney 13-15*
10. Adam Goodes 12-15

* Ineligible

It has been a while since ive posted so ill explain quickly how i run my count again. I've basically been picking out 4-5 players per game who could feature in the votes and if a player was a lock for best player id give him 3. If he was one of two who could get 3 votes id give him 2-3 and if the player played well, but not well enough for 3 votes id award them 1-2. If they are among a mixture of players who could get a vote id give them 1.

So the top 10 list above is basically the range of votes i have them between. After the season i'll go back through the top 20 or so players and fine tune it a bit to try and get a more accurate reading, but im hoping i can come pretty close.

It basically looks like a 3 horse race to me between Judd, Murphy and Pendlebury. People will be saying Judd and Murphy will be taking votes off each other, but the same thing will be happening for Pendlebury who has Daisy, Swan, Cloke etc playing well most weeks. Pendlebury is a genuine chance to win the Brownlow though, but its very hard to look past Judd, for obvious reasons.

 

[Halli]

I notice people are saying Dean Cox will be up there and will give the Brownlow a real shot, but i dont think he is much chance, despite the fact i have him 6th on my count.

Fact is when he used to dominate games 5 years ago when West Coast were in those Grand Finals, he was the leagues dominant ruck man and played well just about every match. But the most votes he ever got in one season was 12 (in 2006) and his previous best before that was 6 in 2005. That year he got 6, he played 22 matches, so he didnt miss any footy. He just seems like one of those dominant players who doesn't seem to poll that well.

Granted he had Judd, Cousins and Kerr to compete with in those years. So given those guys arent around now he should definitely poll a bit better than he used to, but i dont think it will be much more. Would be a fair streetch to think he can crack the 20 votes mark.

 

[kaiserchief13]

I notice people are saying Dean Cox will be up there and will give the Brownlow a real shot, but i dont think he is much chance, despite the fact i have him 6th on my count.

Fact is when he used to dominate games 5 years ago when West Coast were in those Grand Finals, he was the leagues dominant ruck man and played well just about every match. But the most votes he ever got in one season was 12 (in 2006) and his previous best before that was 6 in 2005. That year he got 6, he played 22 matches, so he didnt miss any footy. He just seems like one of those dominant players who doesn't seem to poll that well.

Granted he had Judd, Cousins and Kerr to compete with in those years. So given those guys arent around now he should definitely poll a bit better than he used to, but i dont think it will be much more. Would be a fair streetch to think he can crack the 20 votes mark.

This is probably his best season as well. This year he is taking more contested marks than I have ever seen him do. In 05/06 he would get lots of cheap possessions on the half back line. Not so many this year. He should only be about 6 behind the leader atm.

 

[Blueboy3]

Another thing I have been wondering is what the best way would be to set up multis come the end of the year.. Whether it be having a number of levels of players according to confidence and coming up with various combinations or any other method those of you who are more experienced than I have used and had success with I would love to hear more about it!
Cheers

Using last year as an example (votes arent exact)

Club
Thompson 15
Brown 10
Watson 15
Boak 13 Cassisi 11 (Next best 5)
Sylvia 11 Green 12 (Next best 5)

Thompson Brown Watson Boak Sylvia
Thompson Brown Watson Boak Green
Thompson Brown Watson Cassisi Sylvia
Thompson Brown Watson Cassisi Green

I put more on the one i thought was more likely to get up. On the night only one of these multi's will get up, but the combinations are eliminating risk. So you might only hit a couple of bets for the night, but there return could be hundreds.

 

[bisazc887]

This is probably his best season as well. This year he is taking more contested marks than I have ever seen him do. In 05/06 he would get lots of cheap possessions on the half back line. Not so many this year. He should only be about 6 behind the leader atm.

Yeah I reckon cox will be the sandi of last season (and he had Barlow massively dominating early and Pav can pull a vote)....He has been better than he was in the 2 GF years IMO too.

 

[SnappyHappy]

Interested to know what you guys have Ablett on at the moment? I have Judd and Mitchell tied on 24 and Ablett on 22.

He's not playing this week (likely wouldn't get votes against Geelong anyway), but the Suns have three winnable games to come against Adelaide, Brisbane and to a lesser extent Melbourne. I certainly rate him a good chance of winning the medal at good odds. Thoughts?

 

[Dr Awkward]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Deledio has had a great year too probably should be fav for Richmond.

Nah, he's about a $12 chance imo.

 

[krayfesh]

Another thing I have been wondering is what the best way would be to set up multis come the end of the year.. Whether it be having a number of levels of players according to confidence and coming up with various combinations or any other method those of you who are more experienced than I have used and had success with I would love to hear more about it!
Cheers

Traditionally I would go with 2-3 anchors of odds between $1.30 and $1.70 (last year it was Jobe, S Thompson, J Brown) and add in other team leaders with higher odds (last year was Boak and Pearce for example). I try and keep the multis to 5 legs or less, except for a couple of ridiculous ones.

Then once groups and head to heads come out, you add those as well.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I think people are getting carried away with the recent form of Cox. I have both Cox and Priddis with 3.5 BOGs and petty 1 votes to accumulate their current total.

To say Nic Nat, Shuey, Kerr, Embley will take votes away from Priddis is not a good case to use. FYI i have Cox on 17 and Priddis 16 - and i've been really generous to Cox. Its much closer then what TAB currently have $8 and $41 and heres hoping they get seduced by Cox and open a healthy price for Priddis in team market.

Its a midfielders award for a reason.

What I'm getting at is Cox's BOGs are absolutely nailed on whereas Priddis is less so. It doesn't matter how well others are playing when Cox is winning games off his own boot, but Priddis has never had Shuey, Nic Nat and Kerr (due to injury) to compete with for the three when it's a tight decision. For all we know the umps might prefer the class of Shuey or the X Factor of Naitanui when it comes to those 50/50 calls.

Basically what I'm saying is I'm confident on Cox's final tally being close to mine, but cautious that Priddis may be much less.

 

[PRoberts14]

Oh, don't get me wrong, Kerr and Embley will be way back when it comes to the final tally, but along with Nic Nat and Shuey, there's enough BOGs going away from Priddis in Eagles wins (think very early in the year when Cox, Shuey and Kerr were in ripping form) to drag him back. That's a new phenomenon for Priddis.

As for multis, I'm just praying they let us do them!

i saw a while ago on this thread a bloke asked via facebook the tab and they said yes to multi's but there would be restrictions of some sort. it didnt say much else

 

[Ben the Gooner]

The people who control the FB and Twitter pages don't have much of a clue tbh.

The sportsbet one said that they offer Premiership/Brownlow doubles, but only at specific prices (not multis) and only over the phone.

yeah, nah.

 

[tornsword]

I asked my local tab he said brownlow most votes team bets would be able to be multi'ed however only in VIC and also there would be a cap.. So if everyone is betting on Thompson- Boyd double they'll remove that option once it reaches it max giveaway if you get me.

 

[twarby]

The sportsbet one said that they offer Premiership/Brownlow doubles, but only at specific prices (not multis) and only over the phone.

yeah, nah.

why yeah, nah?

they often have markets that are phone only...

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Yeah, I know, but they didn't offer that market.

 

[Grimmjow]

What I'm getting at is Cox's BOGs are absolutely nailed on whereas Priddis is less so. It doesn't matter how well others are playing when Cox is winning games off his own boot, but Priddis has never had Shuey, Nic Nat and Kerr (due to injury) to compete with for the three when it's a tight decision. For all we know the umps might prefer the class of Shuey or the X Factor of Naitanui when it comes to those 50/50 calls.

Basically what I'm saying is I'm confident on Cox's final tally being close to mine, but cautious that Priddis may be much less.

I only recall Cox winning 2 games off his boot, which includes last round against WB where i gave him a 2 behind Boyd.

Your still blinded by the fact Shuey/Nic Nat/Kerr only played good games when Priddis will poll. On my count there are no games where these 3 polled where they can possiblytake votes off Priddis. As previously stated, the 3.5 BOGs that i have for both Cox & Priddis are close to certainties and the petty 1 votes to accumulate the total.

If your cautious of Priddis getting these 1 votes taken away from other players, you should feel very much the same about Cox.

 

[PRoberts14]

I asked my local tab he said brownlow most votes team bets would be able to be multi'ed however only in VIC and also there would be a cap.. So if everyone is betting on Thompson- Boyd double they'll remove that option once it reaches it max giveaway if you get me.

thats it, thats what i heard though i hope you can still go the 10 legs multi's like last year

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I only recall Cox winning 2 games off his boot, which includes last round against WB where i gave him a 2 behind Boyd.

Your still blinded by the fact Shuey/Nic Nat/Kerr only played good games when Priddis will poll. On my count there are no games where these 3 polled where they can possiblytake votes off Priddis. As previously stated, the 3.5 BOGs that i have for both Cox & Priddis are close to certainties and the petty 1 votes to accumulate the total.

If your cautious of Priddis getting these 1 votes taken away from other players, you should feel very much the same about Cox.

I think the difference is Cox, when he has his 3 vote games, is so far in front of everyone else that there's no risk. Priddis by the very nature of the way he plays (and it's no criticism of him) doesn't stand out from the pack as much.

 

[The_Doctor]

What makes you think Priddis doesnt stand out? He is an in and under player who wins his own ball in a contest and always lays plenty of tackles. He is always right under the umpires nose and has a history of polling very well. If anything i would say he stands out from the pack quite a bit

 

[char]

What makes you think Priddis doesnt stand out? He is an in and under player who wins his own ball in a contest and always lays plenty of tackles. He is always right under the umpires nose and has a history of polling very well. If anything i would say he stands out from the pack quite a bit

Agreed. Combine his vote-getting ability last year with the fact that he's won the Sandover medal in the WAFL with the most votes ever recorded - it has to say something about how he stands out. I'm rating his chances over Cox's ATM.

 

[Dteam_King]

I have recently joined the blog, and look forward to the end of the year... I have been doing a count of my own and am encouraged by the prospect of a couple more locks than last year. Also some very good value as a few of the clubs votes are shaping up to be genuine two-horse races. Looking forward to the next couple of weeks as we approach the business end of the season and the discussion heats up... hedging strategies, team tallies, anchors etc etc.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Priddis by the very nature of the way he plays (and it's no criticism of him) doesn't stand out from the pack as much.

How can you be questioning his vote getting ability when he polled very well last year, and has won a sandover medal?

In comparison Cox has had a very poor polling history and is the one who has struggled to gain the nod from the umpires.

I have them very even in my count, but if you want to worry about polling ability then you have it the wrong way around, it's Cox that you should be worrying about.

 

[CMac11]

How can you be questioning his vote getting ability when he polled very well last year, and has won a sandover medal?

In comparison Cox has had a very poor polling history and is the one who has struggled to gain the nod from the umpires.

I have them very even in my count, but if you want to worry about polling ability then you have it the wrong way around, it's Cox that you should be worrying about.

+1 Priddis is a proven vote getter and even when I'm watching games he stands out like crazy.

I didn't realise the thread had moved until tonight, lucky I found it!

 

[Ducky Tie]

Saint vs Freo
3-Dal Santo
2-Mzungu
1-Milne
Dal Santo is well and truly coming now.