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AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Brownlow Medal 2013
- Thread starter buddymania
- Start date
- Tagged users None
It's a good point. For some reason people that don't watch every game and rely on outside sources (SC/Herald/posters here) take their numbers as gospel. When doing it that way you need to allow wiggle room but people tend to get too hung up on the numbers in front of them. It only takes one game to turn your numbers completely upside down. WB last year is a perfect example of that. You should easily be able to create a price from the numbers you have to see who is overs and if you have Swallow 3 behind its pretty obvious to see where the value lies with some fairly simple maths.
Where do people have Danger polling all these votes?
I have him on 13 and some of those are iffy to whether he will poll at all
Rd2: 1
Rd4: 2
Rd6: 3
Rd7: 2
Rd12: 2
Rd14: 2
Rd20: 1
Jobe has that covered by Rd9 with votes against West Coast and Gold Coast almost assured in the second half of the year. His total is much less volatile as well
I have him on 13 and some of those are iffy to whether he will poll at all
Rd2: 1
Rd4: 2
Rd6: 3
Rd7: 2
Rd12: 2
Rd14: 2
Rd20: 1
Jobe has that covered by Rd9 with votes against West Coast and Gold Coast almost assured in the second half of the year. His total is much less volatile as well
- Jun 14, 2010
- 15,982
- 12,296
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
- Other Teams
- Denver, Liverpool
I dunno about Pendles. He was good but not great, had a lot of his possessions in the last qtr. I honestly think Williams, Swan, Thomas and Masten were all better.
Pendlebury is noticed a lot more when he touches it than Thomas/Williams though
It's especially difficult for mid-range players/players in mid-table teams/players who aren't being talked up. North Melbourne is a prime example. Their wins will often see a host of players pop up as being the best players, and it's my call as to who I think the umps will vote for. That's why Brent Harvey is leading their club in my count, because I know he tends to pull votes when he has good games. Swallow tends to get his 2's and 3's when he gets over 30 touches, because he isn't that flashy a player. With Wells it's hard to say. He has been talked up a bit of late, so maybe the umps will notice him a bit more in his good games in the second half of the year?
There's a huge amount of conjecture involved and I've always found it interesting to see how myself and others go in comparison to the umpires.
I have swan fyfe selwood gaz and boak still a chance to win/tie for the brownlow
*obviously fyfe cant win because he is ineligible but most votes
I think he will get a lot of 1s and 2s when hartlett and westoff were getting 3s at the start of the year and getting the 2s and 3s in their 2nd half of the season wins. he also is a chance to sneak low votes in a couple of their losses.
he polled well in 2010 when they won 10 of the 20 games he played including 3 votes in a losing side
when he has polled previously multiple goals and at least 14 kicks has been a common trend. he has kicked multiple goals on 4 occasions and he has had 14 kicks or more 11 times this year.
don't think he will win but top 5 is a big chance I think. averaging nearly a goal a game, pb average disposals per game, captain, 12-13 wins.
he polled well in 2010 when they won 10 of the 20 games he played including 3 votes in a losing side
when he has polled previously multiple goals and at least 14 kicks has been a common trend. he has kicked multiple goals on 4 occasions and he has had 14 kicks or more 11 times this year.
don't think he will win but top 5 is a big chance I think. averaging nearly a goal a game, pb average disposals per game, captain, 12-13 wins.
will post my round 22 votes soon, but its a very interesting test to see whether the umpires notice joel selwood in that game.
on paper, a lowish possession game, but still 24 touches, 6 tackles, 3 hitouts, 7 inside 50's, 5 frees for and 2 goals. its one of those games where he may grab votes, despite 37 touches to stokes; 26 and 4 goals to johnson. I tend to think that he is almost unbeatable anyway, even if he doesnt poll this week. ablett is almost at the lay stage on betfair.
on paper, a lowish possession game, but still 24 touches, 6 tackles, 3 hitouts, 7 inside 50's, 5 frees for and 2 goals. its one of those games where he may grab votes, despite 37 touches to stokes; 26 and 4 goals to johnson. I tend to think that he is almost unbeatable anyway, even if he doesnt poll this week. ablett is almost at the lay stage on betfair.
Demons Dynasty
Draftee
- Jun 7, 2012
- 18
- 8
- AFL Club
- Geelong
What is wrong with all the betting agencies this year ? Why don't we have club markets, group markets and head to head bets available already ? In previous seasons these markets were available some six weeks before the home and away season ended. Are there any agencies leading the way that have these markets already out ? Does anybody know ?
Because they get r*ped in these markets. That's why a lot of head to heads are 1.85 vs 1.85
The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
- 2,393
- 104
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
They did a couple of years ago but they would have gone pretty well last year i think
The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
- 2,393
- 104
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Tattsbet have been putting up Most Team Votes markets and Betstar H2H's
Demons Dynasty
Draftee
- Jun 7, 2012
- 18
- 8
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Ok thanks Doctor. I'll check them out.
Still 8 that can win my count. They are:
24- Ablett
24- Selwood
23- Jack
23- Pendlebury
23- Swan
21- Boak
21- Griffen
21- Hodge
Ablett is my pick from here. We know he values the medal a lot and GWS is a great chance for him to really turn it up. But Andrew Raines has a huge job in trying to stop Selwood and he might not even go to him with everyone in the Cats midfield in red hot form. Pendlebury has a great record against the Roos too...
24- Ablett
24- Selwood
23- Jack
23- Pendlebury
23- Swan
21- Boak
21- Griffen
21- Hodge
Ablett is my pick from here. We know he values the medal a lot and GWS is a great chance for him to really turn it up. But Andrew Raines has a huge job in trying to stop Selwood and he might not even go to him with everyone in the Cats midfield in red hot form. Pendlebury has a great record against the Roos too...
