Brownlow Medal 2013

[DangerSloane]

Libba > Hartlett > Wingard > Hanley > Heppell

Id be saying Wingard ahead of Hartlett. Hanley has had a great year but to me seems like he could be the type to go unnoticed.

 

[NSLK]

Id be saying Wingard ahead of Hartlett. Hanley has had a great year but to me seems like he could be the type to go unnoticed.

I'd be saying so too retrospectively, but my count says otherwise. Hartlett was killing it early, it will probably have taken the umpires to start noticing Wingard too.

Hartlett (13) - Round - Wingard (11)
3 - 1 - 0
0 - 2 - 1
0 - 3 - 2
3 - 4 - 0
3 - 5 - 0
0 - 12 - 1
0 - 13 - 2
0 - 17 - 2
2 - 18 - 0
2 - 19 - 3

 

[d3ft]

Hanley won't poll - he's a defender.

 

[sfear]

Id be saying Wingard ahead of Hartlett

yeah, I have Wingard just ahead too.

Last year I remember there was a market for most votes from after the byes (rd 13 or whatever) to season end (the opposite of leader after rd 10) but can't remember what agency, anyone know?

 

[d3ft]

Libba in to $1.65.

 

[RobbyRoy]

Libba in to $1.65.

I personally won't be touching that. He's had a phenomenal year but we simply don't know how he'll fare with the umps at this point in his career.

 

[Pinnell]

Didnt poll that great last year, and had a worse season in 2013.
Id say the value there is Wingard or Harvey
Mundy never polls well...Deledio will have to share the votes with a lot of people (Martin, Jackson, Cotchin etc)

Interesting. He polled 19 votes last year.

 

[DangerSloane]

Interesting. He polled 19 votes last year.

And he was expected to poll more...
And he's had a worse year... he wont get 19 votes, and 19 votes wont be enough to beat out Jack or Hannebury.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Didnt poll that great last year, and had a worse season in 2013.
Id say the value there is Wingard or Harvey
Mundy never polls well...Deledio will have to share the votes with a lot of people (Martin, Jackson, Cotchin etc)

Kennedy got what he deserved last year, Mundy overpolled by a fair way.

And he was expected to poll more...
And he's had a worse year... he wont get 19 votes, and 19 votes wont be enough to beat out Jack or Hannebury.

If you had him on more than 20 then your numbers were wrong. He has had a poor year but the argument wasn't beating the other swans. It was beating the others in his group.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Brownlow Group Votes - Boyz To Men
Name Win
David Mundy 2.85
Josh Kennedy (SYD) 3.75
Brett Deledio 4.00
Chad Wingard 4.50
Brent Harvey



Josh Kennedy looks a good thing - betstar grouos

I've got Mundy and Kennedy on 10, Deledio on 11, Wingard on 11 and Harvey on 11.

Take Harvey and Wingard for some value

 

[Pinnell]

I've got Mundy and Kennedy on 10, Deledio on 11, Wingard on 11 and Harvey on 11.

Take Harvey and Wingard for some value

I got my value by taking Kennedy when it opened - he was $5. But I realise its going to be tight.

 

[KardiniaPark]

If you have them all within one, I don't think it's worth guessing unless you took a small spec on Wingard, but that would be it.

 

[DangerSloane]

Kennedy got what he deserved last year, Mundy overpolled by a fair way.



If you had him on more than 20 then your numbers were wrong. He has had a poor year but the argument wasn't beating the other swans. It was beating the others in his group.

I just dont think he'll score anywhere near 19 this year.
Id say 12-13 would be more around the mark.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I just dont think he'll score anywhere near 19 this year.
Id say 12-13 would be more around the mark.

That's not what you said though.

 

[DangerSloane]

That's not what you said though.

What part of what I said are you challenging?

- Kennedy was expected by most people to get more votes in 2012.
- Kennedy's 2013 < Kennedy's 2012
- Kennedy has more people taking votes this year on top of this

I think the value in the group is Wingard or Harvey, but thats an opinion based on the above points and my views on how they'll poll this year.

Edit: Also this is echoed by another poster who has them very close to each other, meaning the value (if there is any) is in Wingard and Harvey.

 

[Quite Ironic]

If you have them all within one, I don't think it's worth guessing unless you took a small spec on Wingard, but that would be it.

Yeah i personally think the group is too tough to call.

 

[KardiniaPark]

What part of what I said are you challenging?

- Kennedy was expected by most people to get more votes in 2012.
- Kennedy's 2013 < Kennedy's 2012
- Kennedy has more people taking votes this year on top of this

I think the value in the group is Wingard or Harvey, but thats an opinion based on the above points and my views on how they'll poll this year.

Edit: Also this is echoed by another poster who has them very close to each other, meaning the value (if there is any) is in Wingard and Harvey.

'Most' people had it wrong then. I'm telling you that he didn't underpoll. In fact if anyone from Sydney did then it was Jack.

 

[KardiniaPark]

You also conveniently forgot to address the Mundy part.

 

[DangerSloane]

'Most' people had it wrong then. I'm telling you that he didn't underpoll. In fact if anyone from Sydney did then it was Jack.

Given that point, MOST people will have it wrong again this year and he will score less than expected, given that his season hasnt been as good.
Which is...exactly what I said?

 

[DangerSloane]

You also conveniently forgot to address the Mundy part.

Im not sure what about Mundy you're challenging? He generally doesnt poll well. You're forgetting last year that other good Fremantle players missed a lot of games. Barlow/Fyfe (Pavlich has a very quiet first half to the year). This meant he was much more likely to get votes in a Freo win than this year where Fyfe and Barlow barely missed any footy and Freo have had an emergence of other players like Suban and Walters.

 

[KardiniaPark]

It doesn't matter who missed games, it matters how many he should have polled and he polled way more than he should have.

 

[DangerSloane]

It doesn't matter who missed games, it matters how many he should have polled and he polled way more than he should have.

So its not easier for a quality player to score votes when other quality players arent in the side?
Now ive heard it all.

 

[KardiniaPark]

So its not easier for a quality player to score votes when other quality players arent in the side?
Now ive heard it all.

No, it's not a given.

-they get more attention
-their team is less likely to win or win by enough to have a high number of total votes in the game.

 

[DangerSloane]

No, it's not a given.

-they get more attention
-their team is less likely to win or win by enough to have a high number of total votes in the game.

In more cases than not, it would work towards the player getting more votes.
Last year Freo still won games with those players out.
I know its not 100% but you gotta say its a contributing factor to Mundy's polling last year compared with this year.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Nah, I wouldn't say that. Lets just agree to disagree.