Brownlow tips

[demon_fanatic]

Ok so Tab has posted their most team votes and a variety of other bets, a few really stand out for me

$10 Thompson at 2.65 for most ade votes, van berlo also 2.65 but i like thommo

$20 Judd Carlton most votes $1.70... guy is an umpires darling and should hold off fev who is $3

$20 Swan 2.15 most pies votes--- bet of the night nearly will hold off leon davis quite easily i think given his great polling record!

$10 Hille Essendon most votes $1.80... had more better games than Mcveigh

$20 Black 1.85 vs Selwood--- another umps darling i still think selwood will be the 4th best cat so i will go with black here confidently

$20 Richo vs Pav $1.55.. odds r short but richmond won more games and confident in his polling ability

$10 K. Cornes port $1.70- the only real consistent player when they won and might get a few 1's in the losses.

$20 Richo most tigers votes $2.00-- cant see any real dangers here tuck but he doesnt seem the type to take votes off richo man

$10 Kirk swans most votes at $2.30.... good price given his good record and another solid season..

$10 Each way Corey--- tremendous value here jump on!!

Multi most votes of Riewoldt saints, cox eagles, harvey north, black bris, pav freo, swan pies, judd carlo, richo richmond, cooney dogs... will pay a lot... take out the ones u think r risky at your own accord

$5 Franklin group winner out of riewoldt, pav, fev, brown, bradshaw at $5... tremendous price will poll several several votes!!! take riewolt as cover at 2.10 if u like and u shudnt lose here no way

$5 again franklin 4.25 in a group of mitchell, hodge, goodes, kerr, simpson, ill take mitchell at 2.10 as the cover here but confident in buddy

lets see how i go, ill invest roughly $200 for the night

 

[Gpat]

Great post Demon_fantatic

Further to the Ess bet, my perception is that McVeigh has historically not received votes, probably because he gets a bit "lippy" with the umpires.

Would be great if someone could verify this with some stats.

 

[DetoNaitanui]

Can u you Multi these???

God there's some value there!

 

[BEEG]

Can u you Multi these???

God there's some value there!

I know you can do Multi's on the most votes for team

Swan
Black
Harvey
Judd
Cooney

for example but im preety sure you cant do multi's on group bets so who will get the most from these 6 players which theres usually about 6 or 7 groups

 

[thekid178]

Can u you Multi these???

God there's some value there!

usually u cant put on multi bets where 2 bets are affected by 1 result... so not sure if u can customise one up

 

[Kahuna]

Just had a quick look at the brownlow quin

I couldn't find Bartel - Ablett

 

[brent-83]

With the amount of media coverage Franklin has got, I'd be really suprised if he didn't win the Hawks tally easily..

Bombers fans.. I really like the looks of either Lloyd or Jobe Watson as your top point scorer. Lloyd could prob get around 10 votes and that might be enough. Has he typically been a good scorer in previous years? At $17.00 could be a pretty tidy collect.

 

[Eddie Dingle]

Joel Corey is getting my coin.

 

[football head]

thoughts from the original football head!

hey fellas,
just thought id pose a couple of the intriguing betting options and some that i am taking plenty of interest in!
would love to hear a range of thoughts becoz i can see that many of you are also taking in-depth looks!!!

Geelong Total Team Votes:
Out of possible 132: two very average games, firstly vs Coll only possibility is ablett but 86pt thrashing means 1-2 at best, and vs Freo Geel only won 15mins of football Sandilands 3votes lottery for the rest not many geel winners that nite.
looking thru other games from my calculations i feel that opp players may pull the odd 1vote but geelongs dominance & winning margins suggest that 20ish will b about it, therefore making the 111-115votes look the goods at $4!!!

Round 11 Leader:
Akermanis $41 ) Dogs had ripping start
Cooney $5 ) red hot early whilst dogs were flying, eye catching
Richo $16 ) tiger prob didnt win enuf for me
Ablett $1.65 ) dont like the odds
Black $ 3.75 ) proven votegetter, blistering start ala last yr

For mine Abletts too short but guess theres a reason but feel bartel mite jus pinch a couple unexpected votes off gazza. like black and cooney here but very hard to pick.

Trifecta:
Ablett-Harvey-Bartel $7
Ablett-Bartel-Harvey $7
Harvey-ABlett-Bartel $15
Bartel-ABlett-Harvey $15
Harvey-Bartel-Ablett $26
Bartel-Harvey-Ablett $26

Feel that these 3 are it! the best 2 players from geelongs all conquering midfield and Harvey, H-Sun Player Of Year, 2nd Fav, close last year etc etc.
also believe that any of those combinations could come up and there wont b much between these 3 players.


Head to Head Bets:
Judd to beat Joel Corey $1.85 (proven votegetter dont b fooled by less than 30possesion games)
Cooney to beat Riewoldt $1.85 (gr8 start should lead & hopefully hang on Riewoldt jus never seems to poll as well as we expect)
Black over selwood $1.85 (proven votegetter, selwood will come late but just dont think enuf 3voters for joel)
Richo over pavlich $1.85 (will b tight but pav same story as riewoldt)
confident on Judd, Cooney, Black, not sure on richo????

Group Betting:
Riewoldt Nick $2.15
PAVLICH Matthew (FREM)
3.60
FRANKLIN Lance (HAW)
5.00
FEVOLA Brendan (CARL)
7.00
BROWN Jonathan (BL)
13.00
BRADSHAW Daniel (BL)
31.00



PAVLICH MATTHEW
SWAN Dane (COLL)
2.80
3.50
KIRK Brett (SYD)
4.20
DAVIS Leon (COLL)
7.00
THOMPSON Scott (ADEL)
7.00


COREY Joel 4.20
JUDD Chris (CARL)
4.20
SELWOOD Joel (GEEL)
4.20
BLACK Simon (BL)
4.40
RICHARDSON Matthew (RICH)
4.40


Most Votes Team:
Adel: Thompson $2.65
Bris: Black $1.22
Carl: Judd $1.70
Coll: Swan $2.15
Ess: Hille pips Mcveigh $1.80
Freo: Pavlich 1.22/Schammer $26
Geel: Not touching
Haw: Bateman, hodge, mitchell
Melb: Mclean, bruce, green
NM: Harvey $1.****all
Port: Cassisi is value $13, S. Burgoyne polls well
Rich: Richo $2
Stk: Riewoldt
Syd: Kirk/Goodes
WB: Cooney $1.16
WC: Lynch/Cox

Bold: are the ones i think i will bet on.

the way i see it, the TAB employs ppl to study up this sort of stuff all day everyday, probably more than we so, and probably pays under the table for information lol, so their markets are going to be a fair indication of what may happen...however we will try

that took quite a long time, would love to hear some thoughts on the above if you get a chance lads!!

 

[djlowz]

Joel Corey is getting my coin.

Good man. He'll be up there trust me - each way should be a no brainer. He was in Geelong's 5 best players in every game and the umps love him cause he just gets on with it. In a lot of the Ablett/Bartel 3 vote games Corey will get the 2 or 1.. He had a few BOG's himself too.

 

[brent-83]

Most Votes Team:
Adel: Thompson $2.65
Bris: Black $1.22
Carl: Judd $1.70
Coll: Swan $2.15
Ess: Hille pips Mcveigh $1.80
Freo: Pavlich 1.22/Schammer $26
Geel: Not touching
Haw: Bateman, hodge, mitchell
Melb: Mclean, bruce, green
NM: Harvey $1.****all
Port: Cassisi is value $13, S. Burgoyne polls well
Rich: Richo $2
Stk: Riewoldt
Syd: Kirk/Goodes
WB: Cooney $1.16
WC: Lynch/Cox

Bold: are the ones i think i will bet on.

the way i see it, the TAB employs ppl to study up this sort of stuff all day everyday, probably more than we so, and probably pays under the table for information lol, so their markets are going to be a fair indication of what may happen...however we will try

I'd just point out the fact that the initial markets yes are set by lines makers but there are plenty of times they get it wrong. From then on its dictated by the money coming in. TAB makes the majority of the money from favorites losing so they will offer under the odds for a lot of favorites and everyone will jump on.

Adel: Thompson $2.65 - polls well/a number of standout games
Bris: Black $1.22 - polls well
Carl: Judd $1.70 - polls well
Coll: Don't want to touch it, but I don't like Swan. Pendles maybe.
Ess: I honestly like Watson at $9. 10ish votes may be enough.
Freo: Pavlich 1.22 - enough said
Geel: Don't want to touch either, but Ablett/Bartel
Haw: Franklin $4.50 value bet of the lot I reckon. This guy has had too much hype about him all year.
Melb: Staying away.
NM: Harvey $1.03 - easily
Port: S Burgoyne at odds, polled well previously
Rich: Richo. Tuck may go close had a huge end to the year
Stk: Riewoldt - easily
Syd: Goodes - plenty of average games but lots of great ones in wins
WB: Cooney $1.16 - massive start to the season
WC: Cox - only shining light in WCE.

I am multi-ing up the bolded ones for $20 to 1, and adding a second multi with Watson at 180 to 1.

 

[demon_fanatic]

ok ive been a tad busy here is what i actually bet on the other day (wednesday)

$10 Scott Thompson Most Ade Votes $2.65 (now into $2.30)
$20 Judd Most Carlton Votes $1.70 (now into $1.55)
$20 Dane Swan most pies votes $2.15 (now into $1.80)
$30 Richo most Tigers votes $1.80 (now into $1.60)
$10 Kirk most Swans votes $2.40 (now into $2.30)

$10 place (top 3) Simon Black $6.50 (still same price)
$10 each way Jimmy Bartel $4.00/$1.75 (still same price)
$10 Each way Joel Corey $15.00/$4.50 (still same price)
$20 Black over Selwood $1.85 (still same price)

$15 Multi Richo (richmond), Harvey (kang), Cooney (Wb), Black (Bris), Riewoldt (stk) most team votes $3.20
$5 Multi Swan (Coll), Thompson (ade) Judd (carl) Kirk (syd) Riewoldt (stk) most team votes $28.35
$10 Multi Riewoldt (stk), Judd (carl) Swan (pies), Richo (rich) Harvey (kang), Black (bris) Cooney (Wb) Cox (wc) $14.97

$10 franklin group 5 winner out of riewoldt, pav, fevola, brown, bradshaw paying $5 (now into $4), i took riewoldt at $2.10 also in this group as cover...

so $220 all up... others i will probably go do tommorow...

$5 on Black and Cooney to lead ablett at rnd 11 as someone else mentioned black is a darling and ablett last year was screwed over it could happen again.. blacks odds are $3.75 and Cooneys $5 here

$10 Franklin most Hawk votes at $4... mitchell and Hodge are $2.10 and $3.90 respectively i like buddy here...

$10 Dane Swan to top group c out of pavlich, kirk, leon davis, scott thompson.. payin $3.50.. pav is $2.80 but i simply think swan has this due to pies winning more..... maybe chuck a $10 on thompson as well tremendous value at $7 given he polled 19 votes last year!!

As mentioned earlier Lloyd or Watson at $17 and $9 cud be worth a stab for the dons... not convinced Hille will poll that well, ill whack $5 on Jobe and Llloydy... too risky at $1.90 is Hille

thoughts? $220 invested but be $270 after tommorow hopin for a return of maybe $350-400 which gives me about $100 profit... i am really hanging on Swan/Kirk to win their clubs so those juicy multi's come off

 

[checker]

brownlow bets.

not sure if theres a thread on this already but was intersted if anybody has made some good value brownlow bets?
i put 50 on brent harvey when he was at about 20-1 knowing that he always polls well.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Re: brownlow bets.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=488892

some thoughts on my bets wud be gr8... its the last post

 

[R1KSTA]

Re: brownlow bets.

i put $100 on jimmy at $80 to win!!

 

[Bubba_5]

Re: brownlow bets.

i put $100 on jimmy at $80 to win!!

When were they stupid enough to make Jimmy $80? Nice work.

I put $40 on Cooney at the start of the season at 126-1. In fact it was $40 of free betting credit courtesy of the AFL Prospectus.

 

[mark_johnson#1]

Does anyone think Deledio can pip Richo for most richmond votes??
Plays similar to juddy when he won his brownlow... 500+ possessions kicks goals..

Richos stats are comparable to his other years and he hasnt polled extremely well..

And also how about Dal Santo for the saints? proven vote getter? has his season been comparable at all to previous seasons?

 

[bomberpride13]

i just had a leak......nick reiwoldt to win 2008 brownlow medal lol

 

[jonoman89]

$1.40 for Judd is rediculous value.

 

[Par4]

What are the odds for J.Selwood?

 

[passthebottle]

i just had a leak......nick reiwoldt to win 2008 brownlow medal lol

Did you see it in the bowl?

 

[94_Eagles]

Re: brownlow bets.

i put $100 on jimmy at $80 to win!!

Nice, I'll collect about $1100 if Jimmy wins. Should have been $2600 though..

 

[sherrin_footy]

what are peoples thoughts on placing $50 for Franklin to poll most votes from hawks, and $50 on simon black at $3.50 to finish top 5?


and also, not sure how to place a multi online?
could someone explain how to do that?

thanks

 

[GoBuddyGo]

A bloke i know spoke to bartel and he thinks joel corey will win it.
Bartel for mine, but interesting to know jimmy's thoughts

 

[demon_fanatic]

franklin is gr8 value i rekn he will top the hawks and nearly be an ineligable winner despite him being a forward!! guys kicked 100 remember and is so eye catching!!! the umps wud get off the ground and remember him when voting... mitchell will be the main rival dont worry about hodge

black is tremendous value for place 6.50 or top 5... dont underestimate his polling power like last year and the lions have been slightly better this year as has black despite having a quiet middle period he will fly out of the blocks once again!!

hope deledio dont beat richo i got a fair bit on richo to top richmonds votes.... judd i got at 1.80 i think he's got it fev doesnt poll that well