Senior Cam Rayner (2017-)

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Nine things we learned: This Lion is a premiership wildcard

2) This Lion is a premiership wildcard

For seven seasons, No.1 draft pick Cam Rayner has teased with his limitless talent, occasionally exploding with flashes of brilliance. Teased, then exploded. Coming off a fifth-place finish in Brisbane's best and fairest last year, we just might be entering the prime of the young Lion's career. In a finals-like cauldron against Sydney, Rayner was unstoppable with his ability to break tackles in congestion and explode to the outside, kicking two goals and giving off two others from his 20 disposals. His second goal, where he swatted aside multiple Swans before sizzling a kick from 45m, was breathtaking. His form has been steadily improving since Brisbane's mid-season bye and has the capacity to raise the Lions' ceiling come September, should they make it that far. – Michael Whiting
 

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Right as Rayner: Stats show maligned star has joined the League's best

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NOT ONLY is Cam Rayner in the best form of his seven-season career, but Brisbane's dynamic half-forward has become one of the AFL's best players in recent weeks.

Since the Lions' mid-season bye, Rayner's impact has skyrocketed and his team has followed with eight successive wins.

For so long, the No.1 pick from the 2017 AFL Draft has teased with his explosive power and goalkicking ability, taking over small pockets of games, but struggling to consistently put them together.

That has now changed.

Coach Chris Fagan has given Rayner a license to attend stoppages, and the 24-year-old has thrived, mixing dangerous moments around the contest with his usual aerial threat inside forward 50.

His third quarter goal against Sydney in round 19 encapsulated his match-winning ability; he swatted aside defenders following a forward 50 clearance to roost home a much-needed goal from long range.

"He's got great belief in himself at the moment and he's using all his attributes really well," Fagan said.

"He's been a bit maligned, I guess. It's always tough when you're the No.1 pick in the draft, everybody watches you and watches your career.

"He's a bit like a red wine, he's getting better with age."

Rayner has kicked multiple goals in Brisbane's past five games, a stretch during which he has averaged 16.1 Player Ratings points, ranking him 17th in the AFL.

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It's the best five-week stretch of his career.

Narrow that in to the past three wins over West Coast, Sydney and Gold Coast and Rayner is rated the third best player in the competition, averaging 20 disposals, six tackles and four clearances a game while adding six goals and assisting another five.

Of his 132 career games, Champion Data has rated them as three of his best four.

Speaking prior to Brisbane's training session on Tuesday morning, Rayner said clarity with his role had played a huge part in his form surge.

"Just being able to have a balance between the both of them (forward and midfield) and seeing where I feel like I can impact the game at different stages," he said.

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"My strengths are different to other people's strengths in the team and if we can find a way to play a game that works for all of us, I feel like that's how we can play our best footy."

Rayner's fitness has also improved, allowing him to impact later in games.

"There's things I've been speaking about with Muzz (forwards coach Murray Davis) and Brucey (midfield coach Cameron Bruce) which are key indicators for me," he said.

"I feel like if I can get them ticked off, the rest of it comes.

"I feel like I've been able to get them ticked off pretty early in games, which then gives me the confidence to go through and play them out."

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Despite his own top form and the Lions' winning run, Rayner says such a condensed ladder means there is no chance to relent, starting with a trip to Marvel Stadium on Sunday to face St Kilda.

"If you don't keep that energy up, you can get found out straight away," he said.

"Any team can beat any team and it's a challenge every week. You've got to keep finding ways to build energy around the club."
 
‘EMERGING’ STAR IS ‘JUST SO POWERFUL’ IN OMINOUS SHOWING

Could Cam Rayner be Brisbane’s catalyst come finals time? It sure seems like he’s warming up at the right time of the year.

Rayner finished with 23 disposals and three goals. It’s the third week the former No. 1 pick has recorded over 20 disposals and kicked multiple goals.

“The emergence of Cam Rayner — his own belief (growing) over the past six weeks; that bodes well for the Lions going into September,” Brown told Fox Footy on Sunday night.

Added Schleicher: “He really is doing it all — he’s just so powerful … The confidence that we’re seeing in his game has been incredible.”

By half-time, Rayner already had 10 disposals, five score involvements, 269 metres gained and two goals.

“He could be the most impactful player in the competition,” Brown continued.

“Because at the end of the day, he only needs to touch it 15-20 times and he’ll be best on ground most weeks if he’s doing that.

“That second quarter, it showed the impact he can have in short periods of games, and we’ve lauded the greats that have had that capability — Dustin Martin the most recent.

“I’m not saying he’s Dustin Martin-level at this stage, but his past six weeks — he’s growing in confidence, and leading into September, that’s a great thing.”
 

Can Lion star finally live up to the sky-high expectations?

Cam Rayner comes into Saturday’s semi-final against Greater Western Sydney with a point to prove. The Brisbane Lions half-forward has had a career-best year. For the first time, he was picked in the All-Australian squad, even though he wasn’t selected in the final team. Champion Data notes he has averaged career-highs for goals, disposals (15.5 a game), contested possessions, score assists (1.7 a game) and score involvements (5.6 a game).
Cam Rayner celebrates a goal during the Lions’ elimination final victory over Carlton last weekend.


Across the league, he’s one of 11 forwards to have averaged at least 15 possessions, a goal, an assist and five score involvements per year.

The query is whether he can reproduce his hot form across a finals series. And the deeper teams get into September, the going only gets tougher. Rayner knows. Historically, he has been a good performer in the first week of finals. In last year’s qualifying final against Port Adelaide, he was irresistible, kicking three goals in the first half on the way to a ruthless 48-point win. But he failed to impact in the preliminary or grand finals, not winning enough ball forward of centre, where he does the most damage. He didn’t register an inside-50 in either match.
It wasn’t the first time. Against Geelong in the preliminary finals two years ago, Rayner was substituted off with an ankle injury. The Cats thrashed the Lions on the way to a premiership.

SEASON AVERAGES FOR CAM RAYNER​

The Brisbane Lion has had a career-best season on several measures. Rayner missed the 2021 season due to injury.
Table with 8 columns and 6 rows.
SeasonDisposalsCPGoalsSAG%SASITackles
201813.55.90.948.8%0.74.42.4
20199.54.60.837.7%0.84.22.1
20209.84.11.063.0%0.84.13.2
202214.77.11.042.1%1.14.82.3
202314.25.60.946.0%1.15.32.2
202415.57.71.252.8%1.75.63.1
CP = contested possessions. SA = score assists. SI = score involvements.
Source: Champion Data

Against Carlton last week, he again scored three goals and was pivotal to setting up a 10-goal buffer that meant the Lions could get away with an error-strewn, unconvincing second half. This time, Brisbane will have to travel, and Greater Western Sydney are unlikely to be so forgiving of even a poor quarter from an erratic Lions team.
It needs to be kept in mind that Rayner’s high half-forward role is one of the hardest to play, particularly as the intensity rises across a finals campaign. Hence his oft-alleged inconsistency. Coach Chris Fagan has tried other ways to get Rayner more involved in games. Early in 2023, he was even trialled at halfback, before Keidean Coleman was settled in a play making role.

It didn’t suit Rayner, who quickly returned to the forward line, with Fagan admitting the experiment was a mistake. In the midfield, Rayner has been used with more success, and he has again averaged a career-high in clearances this year (2.5 a game). Against Melbourne in round five Rayner really shone on ball, winning an equal career-high 25 disposals, including nine game-breaking clearances. It was a glimpse of the explosive, pack-busting player that Rayner was recruited to be when he was taken with the No. 1 draft pick in 2017. So why not use him there more?

There have been queries about whether he has the endurance base for more midfield time. Rayner has slowly improved his tank, but even in that match against Melbourne, he did his best work in the first half, tailing away as the game wore on.
“He’s got better endurance now,” Chris Fagan told the club website at the start of the season. “He’s still not an endurance beast, but he’s worked on that enormously, enough to be able to play good minutes in the midfield, which is all that’s required.”
He has run out this season well: he’s ranked fifth among general forwards for scoreboard impact since the bye. But the main reason Rayner doesn’t play more midfield minutes is competition. Rayner is sixth for centre-bounce involvements at the Lions, with just 6.4 a game: a pinch-hitting role.
When you see who is in front of Rayner, it makes sense. Lachie Neale (23.6 centre bounces a game) and Josh Dunkley (22.1) are locks for those inside roles.

After them is Hugh McCluggage, with 16 centre-bounce attendances. For Rayner to get more midfield time, McCluggage would have to be pushed back out to a wing. Early in his career, McCluggage made his name as one of the best wingers in the game. But his vision and distribution makes him much more valuable to the Lions playing in the centre. So, it’s only when at least one of these three players are resting that Rayner gets his chance to show what he can do at the coalface. After that, back to the forward line he goes. And that’s the most high-pressure part of the ground – where expectations are greatest, where time and space are hardest to find, and where games are won and lost. Rayner has had to deal with the pressure of expectation his whole career. If the Lions are to get past the Giants, he looms as their likely game-breaker. He is in the form of his life.
 

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Senior Cam Rayner (2017-)

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