Carlton 2024 - Are they being overestimated?

[GC2015]

Probably a bit. Last year Carlton went 13-1-9 and finished 5th, then won two arm wrestle finals to sneak into the top 4

Mostly, i think you can expect teams to do about as well as they did the year before, which suggests somewhere between 11 wins (ie: narrowly.missing finals) and 15 wins (sneaking into 4th or 5th). I don't really see why anyone expects massive improvement from a squad already in its prime who didn't add any players of note.

I suspect a bit of a slow start to the year, too. Currently missing Weitering who was last year's BnF, as well as Walsh who is the best midfielder. But also, weirdly, missing all of the non-KP forwards from last year - Silvagni, Martin, Owies, Durdin, and then Motlop got hurt in the first few minutes vs Melb. Who does that leave as the third best forward? Who applies forward pressure? Orazio Fantasia (4 games in two years?) and ummm....

The counter is the team is probably better suited to slower and tougher games in August and September than to glorified practice games in March. There's an almost certain pantsing coming in Brisbane, and a strong possibility of a slow start followed by much hand wringing in the media, but this team probably plays its best footy in the second half of the year (again) and ends up somewhere in the finals mix as well.

Very measured and fair response. Well played, sir

 

[Schauermann]

Their best 10 players aren't over-rated but if the rest drop off and a couple of injuries to the wrong players and Carlton could free fall down the ladder.

To be fair that could be the case with most teams.

So many teams in the mix for the lower half of the 8. 2 games most likely be a difference around 5 ladder positions. This is probably very true for most teams.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Big question marks on that backline, it's Weitering and what else?

Newman, McGovern, Marchbank, Saad and Williams are fine when Weitering is there. The issue is that nobody else can play a nullifying role on opposition talls or resting rucks. Gov is an interceptor. He's not a deep man on man defender. Kemp is the same height but plays even shorter than Gov.

We have Lewis Young or Sam Durdin as understudies to take on the big guys. Pretty tasty for Joe Daniher first up.

We didn't see Young dropping off so badly last year after a decent 2022. But that's no excuse for not seeking to get more cover in for this year.

 

[Fadge]

They've put together 3 months of finals standard football in recent memory, with circumstances working for them in a few of their wins in the back half of the season (Port 7 changes for their game against Carlton due to having their eyes on their top 2 clash the following week, Collingwood's dead rubber, Petracca goal that wasn't paid).

They were closer to missing the finals (again) than finishing top 4 at the end of home and away.

Expect teams like Adelaide, Sydney and Fremantle leapfrog them - if they're lucky they'll make up the numbers in the bottom half of the top 8, but IMHO they're more likely to miss the top 8.

 

[JayJ20]

I voted no simply because they have the talent, though we know sometimes things don't play out like they are on paper.

As long as Curnow isn't injured, they have the talent to make the top 6 again. Didn't fire a shot in both preseason games, but a relatively easy fixture to start the year (other than the Brisbane game next week) should see them ease into the year before the fixture gets difficult.

Start the year badly though and things can head south very quickly. We'll know more about where they sit after the first 4 weeks.

 

[Arr0w]

They've put together 3 months of finals standard football in recent memory, with circumstances working for them in a few of their wins in the back half of the season (Port 7 changes for their game against Carlton due to having their eyes on their top 2 clash the following week, Collingwood's dead rubber, Petracca goal that wasn't paid).

They were closer to missing the finals (again) than finishing top 4 at the end of home and away.

Expect teams like Adelaide, Sydney and Fremantle leapfrog them - if they're lucky they'll make up the numbers in the bottom half of the top 8, but IMHO they're more likely to miss the top 8.

Strange, read the same analysis by you last year with us finishing 11th

13th this year right ?

 

[Thrawn]

Is this the same poster who was death-riding us last year, even during our winning streak?

 

[Jeremias]

Is this the same poster who was death-riding us last year, even during our winning streak?

Not sure, but I do recall he tried to convince himself that a loss in the r23 dead rubber vs the Giants would do irreparable mental damage to the group heading into the finals.

 

[Fadge]

Not sure, but I do recall he tried to convince himself that a loss in the r23 dead rubber vs the Giants would do irreparable mental damage to the group heading into the finals.

Making up rubbish again?

Given Collingwood supporters saw their team play 5 times as many dead rubbers as Carlton in 2023.

Only difference was, Collingwood had top 2 sewn up with 5 rounds to go, whilst Carlton couldn't move from 5th in the final round.

Oh my.

 

[Jeremias]

Making up rubbish again?

Given Collingwood supporters saw their team play 5 times as many dead rubbers as Carlton in 2023.

Only difference was, Collingwood had top 2 sewn up with 5 rounds to go, whilst Carlton couldn't move from 5th in the final round.

Oh my.

Jesus, you really are desperate for attention, you sad little troll.

The comment wasn’t about you.

Oh my, indeed.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Their form in the second half of last yr was good.
I don't necessarily think they're being overestimated, but I do know plenty if other teams have had a good season, then struggle again

 

[fnerd]

More like still underestimated .

The premiership clock is about to strike 12 and the navy blues are primed like a bilge pump on the titanic.

Top tier talent on every line with Voss the boss pulling the strings from the coaches box and all backed up by the most humble, knowledgeable and deserving fans in the league.

2024 is the year the Carlton football club regains its rightful place atop the AFL mountain

Everyone else is playing for second place

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

27 grand final losses...

16 Flags though.

Pies are both First and Second place at the same time.

Probably the only sporting club around the world to do so.

 

[Vankri]

16 Flags though.

Pies are both First and Second place at the same time.

Probably the only sporting club around the world to do so.

Considering we’re reigning premiers and sitting on top of the flag tally I guess some people have to clutch very very hard at very very thin straws to try and dismiss our record. You could say we should have more flags considering how many times we’ve been in the GF but we’re already up top.

On topic I think most media are hyping Carlton on the back of the finals series and a ‘big’ supporter base waking up from its slumber. So there’s talk of GF minimum, flag favouritism etc. I think that’s forgetting a few things like how close they were to losing to Sydney and to Melbourne (who self destructed really - Gawn’s brain fade case in point) and the fact that the make up of the list still leaves too much on the shoulders of a few (great top 6-7 players) and that makes it very vulnerable to injuries.

I see their realistic ladder prediction range as 4th-9th.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

I find the Blues hard to assess. Imo Voss is in the top handful of coaches in the comp. They have some terrific players but do not possess great depth. Like some other teams in contention for the 8 they will rely on a very good run with injury.

I have them anywhere between 6 and 11.

 

[carlton_99]

Is this the same poster who was death-riding us last year, even during our winning streak?

Yes it was - but good that we have another Carlton thread. Felt like the 17,301 other ones just weren't cutting it

 

[76woodenspooners]

Yes.

The hype around Carlton has hit ridiculous levels, and it’s mostly because of the engagement of the supporter base (you don’t see GWS hyped up anywhere near as much, and they’re no less deserving)

But Carlton will beat Richmond in round 2.

 

[carlton_99]

Yes.

The hype around Carlton has hit ridiculous levels, and it’s mostly because of the engagement of the supporter base (you don’t see GWS hyped up anywhere near as much, and they’re no less deserving)

But Carlton will beat Richmond in round 2.

Can I ask where the hype has been from any neutral observer? I understand Carlton supporters might be excited just like any supporter base about the upcoming season but where is this hype from non supporters or people in the media etc?

 

[Fadge]

Jesus, you really are desperate for attention, you sad little troll.

The comment wasn’t about you.

Oh my, indeed.

So help me out here...

Who was the comment about, if if wasn't about the post that was quoted directly prior to your comments?

Oh my.

 

[carlton_99]

So help me out here...

Who was the comment about, if if wasn't about the post that was quoted directly prior to your comments?

Oh my.

Mate even I can tell you the post is about the person that started the thread and not you. They were deathriding Carlton all of last year on the main board - pretty sure they were still coming up with ways we could miss the 8 after the elimination final win

 

[Franc de Borges]

I’d go in with confidence against any team in a big final on the MCG. Far less confident about having the consistency to get there.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Can I ask where the hype has been from any neutral observer? I understand Carlton supporters might be excited just like any supporter base about the upcoming season but where is this hype from non supporters or people in the media etc?

Have a look at any ladder predictor articles / discussions / threads and where Carlton is often predicted.

 

[carlton_99]

Have a look at any ladder predictor articles / discussions / threads and where Carlton is often predicted.

I dont think predicting a team who finished in the top 4 after finals to be in the top 4 the following year is that crazy of a prediction.

 

[Jeremias]

Mate even I can tell you the post is about the person that started the thread and not you. They were deathriding Carlton all of last year on the main board - pretty sure they were still coming up with ways we could miss the 8 after the elimination final win

Best just ignore the pathetic attention seeking troll.

 

[76woodenspooners]

I dont think predicting a team who finished in the top 4 after finals to be in the top 4 the following year is that crazy of a prediction.

I get that many basically copy and paste the ladder from last year as their ladder predictor, and maybe put their own team up a few rungs in hope, and maybe fiddle a few places to show they’re being sophisticated about it.

But a lot changes between seasons. The draw changes. Players get traded and drafted. Old players get older. Young players get another preseason under their belt. Key players get injured. Maybe 1 or 2 coaches change, and footy bosses change. A bunch of assistant coach / fitness coach changes. Gameplan changes. Rule changes.

And so the ladder changes, often by a lot. What happened to Geelong, Freo, Bulldogs and Richmond in 2023? (All of them teams that played finals the previous year). Swans barely snuck into finals on the back of a bad goal umpiring call.

FWIW, I think my own team is a bit overhyped at the moment due to list profile / age. But the Premiers get that, just as Geelong did the previous season.