List Mgmt. Carlton's 2018 Draft Thread (cont. in Part 2)

[harrisendblue]

I think he absolutely will have mismatches regularly at AFL level, opposition teams already cant match Charlie and i think JL is actually faster and just as fit. Not the leaper Charlie is but im fairly sure he's taller and has longer arms. Keep in mind the inevitable arrival of decongestion rules too... having guys like JL and Curnow running loose is going to be unreal.

In Rankine i see a guy with a super highlights reel, but even at Junior level he gets caught with the ball multiple times per game, imagine against bigger and faster players.. everybody already hates Polson for getting caught all the time. He's also hit and miss with his kicking, shanks as many if not more than he kicks and doesnt have the tank (right now) to be anywhere near the middle of the ground at AFL level.

Charlie beats opposition because of his leap and strength at winning contested marks rather than his acceleration.

From the footage JL was playing on a lockdown backman with tree trunk legs. Get a tall interceptor and they will keep up with him no worries.

The league is backing away more on decongestion and its looking like a 6/6/6 only after a goal is kicked. Once the ball is bounced then it will the congested game it is today.

I have no issues in taking JL or any other kid if they have genuinely shown "once in a generation" abilities. The end of season games will be crucial , like they are most years, in consolidating final opinions.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Some food for thought on Lukosius, the kid sees himself as an uncontested ball player. He has a relaxed nature which is why some people say he plays with a lack of intensity at times.

I just said earlier I'm not keen on comparing all these kids to known AFL stars but for him to be compared to Reiwoldt? I just don't see it. Nick was intense. He'd go hard for a contest and his contested marking average was quite high, we're talking Jonno Brown levels. I just don't see Lukosius ever reaching that level. If I was to compare him, I'd go more along the lines of an upgrade on Jack Watts at this stage.

Our midfield is our biggest need clearly. But for me, Rankine is still the one I'd take with #1. He has a good leap, takes strong overhead marks, has that burst of acceleration we are crying out for (how good was the Dow goal against GC? That's what you can expect from Rankine too) and imo would be the perfect tag team partner for Charlie in our forward line. They'd drive opposition back lines nuts because both are capable of doing something special and will be incredibly tough to match up on.

I agree midfield is where we should be concentrating but I havent watched him enough to make an informed decision or comparison to other players but from what ive seen the Lukosius is certainly light on his feet .
Just glides along the turf if he has a tank and the game opens up a little more in coming seasons he should be a fine player .
One would think if we are taking him at 1 goals is what we want not necessarily a link player however .
Not so sure about tags that he's a 2 grabber when marking or doesnt take many contested marks .
Theres another fella that can be labelled with those traits Lance Franklin is his name .

 

[harrisendblue]

Yes 2002 was his first full season, and spread the load from playing half back to half forward

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...-riewoldt-named-new-star-20020918-gdulpr.html

Perhaps he may not have the career that Riewoldt had and his floor might only be Westhoff, either way, not a bad range

I guess at this stage all im seeing is that his ceiling is Westoff. If that's true then I would rather the best midfielder especially as we have plenty of developing talls.

 

[Arr0w]

I guess at this stage all im seeing is that his ceiling is Westoff. If that's true then I would rather the best midfielder especially as we have plenty of developing talls.

Okay so needs based, makes sense now

 

[metrik]

In all this discussion we've been considering GC's Lynch compensation, but wouldn't Gaff net the eagles the pick after if he goes?

Or am I missing something here?

 

[Mr_Plow]

https://www.afldraftcentral.com.au/2018/07/30/scouting-notes-tac-cup-round-13/

#22 Sam Walsh – Not much to be said about Walsh that has not been said before. Another 33-disposal game to go with six inside 50s, six rebounds and six clearances. He covers the ground incredibly well, wins the ball with ease and hurts the opposition whenever he goes near it. Laid six tackles on the weekend too which was good to see highlighting his ability to impact the contest.

#1 Riley Collier-Dawkins – Not usually a handball-dominant player, Collier-Dawkins found little space, having to work in close and deliver 14 handballs in his 15 disposals, winning the majority in tight. He had three clearances, two inside 50s and laid a team-high 10 tackles showcasing his intent to win the footy.

#5 Xavier Duursma

The skipper led from the front right off the bat, and his first quarter goal stemmed the flow of a surging Knights outfit. Duursma was terrific in the midfield congestion, snatching his fair share of hard ball gets and showing a good five-meter burst to push his side forward from the midfield. While his explosiveness from stoppages was a highlight, his goal in the last term to seal the win after getting absolutely poleaxed by Northern’s Joel Randall summed up his game pretty nicely.

#5 Curtis Taylor

With his first game since coming back from playing National Championships, Taylor had a very quiet game by his standards finishing the game with only 11 disposals and no goals. Taylor showed nice movement on the wing early in the game, getting out of trouble with ease. He dropped an easy mark late in the first quarter, with the windy conditions being considered as a factor but it was his lack of second effort really stood out in that contest recording no tackles for the game. Taylor however did start the second quarter well competing hard in the midfield almost winning a classy clearance with his good judgement and movement when receiving the ball from the tap out. In the third quarter he took some nice marks and his kicking was solid. Taylor like many of his teammates struggled in the last quarter.

#29 Bailey Williams

Williams was the standout big man on the ground despite some wayward kicking at goal early on. His first nice mark in the opening quarter was followed by an absolute howler kick that went out on the full, he would however not make the same mistake with another strong mark later in the game leading to a goal. The windy conditions made it tough for the talls but he still managed to take plenty of good marks and if he was not able to mark it, he at least flew at the contests showing his intent. Williams would repeat his goal kicking woes in the third quarter, but one of those missed shots came from a fantastic contested mark. Despite the wind playing a big part in the missed shots, he was still the standout key forward through the day, always looking like a threat. He finished the game with two goals, eight marks and 17 disposals.

#7 Liam Stocker

Leading the Sandringham midfield, it was a typically authoritative performance from the Dragons onballer, with 21 kicks from 35 disposals, four marks, five tackles and a goal. While Stocker’s ability to rest forward and hit the scoreboard has been notable this season, he played purely through the midfield in the absence of usual stalwarts Bailey Smith, Alastair Richards, Harry Houlahan and Kai Owens. In windy conditions at Trevor Barker Oval, the first-round prospect kicked a freakish left-foot goal in the second term. After appearing to miss its intended target, the Sherrin — aided by the breeze — had a mind of its own, somehow evading the Pioneers’ defence before bouncing through for a miracle major. The Haileybury product was bumped crudely into the fence in the dying stages, but appeared unscathed as the final siren sounded, confirming an eight-point Dragons victory.

 

[Weiterbot23]

I guess at this stage all im seeing is that his ceiling is Westoff. If that's true then I would rather the best midfielder especially as we have plenty of developing talls.

Walsh seems the safest bet

 

[footyfan1978]

It's called the U/18 Championships which is televised and the end off year best of the best U/18 game plus a TAC Grand final all televised. That's giving about 5 games for each player televised.

Yep the great players only playing 150-200 games at most if you want the draft age to be 21! Please no!

You misunderstood. I was not saying raise the draft age to 21.
I am saying we should have an under 21's league, not two leagues of VFL and under 18's in same state.
We can still draft the best 18 year olds but from 16 years of age these kids can play with other youngsters up to 4 years older that still developing in same league to hope to get drafted.

The National Under 18's would stay as it does now. It is not televised on free to air tv.
But presently one game a week is on channel 7 of VFL. We can replace that with a game each week of the match of round in under 21's.

We will all start to get to know way more of kids drafted this way before they drafted.

 

[DangerousD]

I have Lukosius and Charlie in a similar mold. Both are very athletic and will get their goals through mobility aka nick riewoldt. Hawkins has morphed his game along this model and has 2 x bags of 7 to show for it. It works.
We have seen with players like roughhead that bigger players can run through the midfield, not to mention Cripps- who is along with fyfe capable of performing both mid and forward duties.
What we are seeing is the rise and rise of the hybrid player.
Forwards are no longer just forwards: if they are tall they must be also fit and mobile; if they are small, they must be capable of pinch hitting through the midfield at times and also have a really good defensive game.
Backs are no longer just backs: They need to be very athletic and smart, in order to thrive in a zone defence. They need to be very good decision makers in order to capitalize on rebound opportunities and put the ball to the teams advantage.

To draft Lukosius as a tall forward only, is to ignore his 2 biggest strengths: Elite fitness and Elite disposal. Skills that suits the modern tall forward exactly. Dont be surprised if he mimics charlie and runs through the midfield even though he is recruited as a forward.

As i have said before, i don't doubt that the kid is going to be a good footballer, i just don't think we can afford to have him, Charlie, Harry and a ruck in the same side. The way the game is being played at the moment doesn't allow for teams to go in so tall as they simply can't apply the high intensity pressure required.

Im all for two key forwards but not 3. Three key forwards, a ruck, three tall backs, Cripps and Kennedy who are not fast, its just too slow imo and can't apply enough pressure.

 

[harrisendblue]

Okay so needs based, makes sense now

If JL's ceiling is Westhoff then Walsh is not only needs but also best from all perspectives at this stage.

 

[Arr0w]

If JL's ceiling is Westhoff then Walsh is not only needs but also best from all perspectives at this stage.

Depends where you rate Walsh's floor

Despite having a better chance of finding an elite mid at the pointy end of the draft, they exist in every round

As I said, I really don't care who we take at this stage, Lukosius, Walsh or Smith, we still have holes in every line

 

[bmaurizio]

If JL's ceiling is Westhoff then Walsh is not only needs but also best from all perspectives at this stage.

Walsh is playing his footy aganist skinny under 18 year youngsters and has impressed granted.
Lukosius is playing aganist men and impressed at 196 cm an athletic beast with tremendous endurance. Beautiful kicking skills and able to create space with his footy IQ and distribute the ball well.
Whom would you select with pick 1.

 

[DangerousD]

Have been watching some highlights of Luko and although he looks good i am still very sceptical about key forwards in the lower leagues. Even though the SANFL doesn't have anti congestion rules like the TAC cup, it is still played totally different to AFL. The amount of times i saw players streaming out of half back and kicking inside 50 or to the wing and having forwards one on on or leading at the ball carrier is poles apart to what happens at AFL level.

This is a main reason why so may forwards have struggled to transition lately, they play by a different set of rules or to totally different tactics.

 

[DangerousD]

Walsh is playing his footy aganist skinny under 18 year youngsters and has impressed granted.
Lukosius is playing aganist men and impressed at 196 cm an athletic beast with tremendous endurance. Beautiful kicking skills and able to create space with his footy IQ and distribute the ball well.
Whom would you select with pick 1.

Its not really a fair comparison is it?

Walsh is playing against the top 18 year olds week in week out, the best kids our state has to offer and was awarded best player at the Champs, so was the best player at that age group in the country.

Luko is playing against men but its in the SANFL, its not the best, having watched some highlights just now it once again shows how hard it is to judge key forwards as the league plays a totally different set up to what he will find at AFL.

He might end up better or be better, but i don't think the TAC cup vs SANFL comparison is a good measuring stick.

 

[Arr0w]

Have been watching some highlights of Luko and although he looks good i am still very sceptical about key forwards in the lower leagues. Even though the SANFL doesn't have anti congestion rules like the TAC cup, it is still played totally different to AFL. The amount of times i saw players streaming out of half back and kicking inside 50 or to the wing and having forwards one on on or leading at the ball carrier is poles apart to what happens at AFL level.

This is a main reason why so may forwards have struggled to transition lately, they play by a different set of rules or to totally different tactics.

All top end KPF's struggle in their first 3-4 years, hardest position on the park

 

[therubbernub]

Have been watching some highlights of Luko and although he looks good i am still very sceptical about key forwards in the lower leagues. Even though the SANFL doesn't have anti congestion rules like the TAC cup, it is still played totally different to AFL. The amount of times i saw players streaming out of half back and kicking inside 50 or to the wing and having forwards one on on or leading at the ball carrier is poles apart to what happens at AFL level.

This is a main reason why so may forwards have struggled to transition lately, they play by a different set of rules or to totally different tactics.

Agree . And it really does create some uncertainty. And that is where you have to have ultimate faith in SOS. If sos with his background , doesnt understand the machinations of the modern forward line and its zones, then nobody will. I think he does, and he will have learnt from the GWS experience, where continual recruiting of big forwards, appears to have been somewhat unsuccessful.

 

[Arr0w]

Agree . And it really does create some uncertainty. And that is where you have to have ultimate faith in SOS. If sos with his background , doesnt understand the machinations of the modern forward line and its zones, then nobody will. I think he does, and he will have learnt from the GWS experience, where continual recruiting of big forwards, appears to have been somewhat unsuccessful.

I think the KPF's SOS selected at GWS have come on nicely

 

[DangerousD]

All top end KPF's struggle in their first 3-4 years, hardest position on the park

I think its more than that, the way the game is currently played is just not suited to big strong forwards and the way the lower leagues play is not good preparation for big guys.

I wonder what will happen with these proposed rule changes and what bearing that will have on who we recruit.

 

[Arr0w]

I think its more than that, the way the game is currently played is just not suited to big strong forwards and the way the lower leagues play is not good preparation for big guys.

I wonder what will happen with these proposed rule changes and what bearing that will have on who we recruit.

The big power forwards could still struggle, but the you look at Hawkins and he is still producing

If it wasn't for the knee injuries, Patton has shown enough to also suggest he is a valuable forward

Nowadays guys like Charlie, Hogan, Kennedy are more mobile and are more dangerous, but that has been the case for a while now

 

[DangerousD]

I think the KPF's SOS selected at GWS have come on nicely

I beg to differ.

Patton has been a bust, even when he was injury free this year, he was having very little impact.

Cameron, was touted as a generational player and one to build the team around, despite having patches of brilliance in his career, he hasn't become the player many expected and his output has been down. It was also reported last week that compared to other forwards he is ranked last in terms of pressure.

Mcarthy, who i really rated in his first few years has struggled with the demands of AFL football and has stagnated.

Boyd, despite his GF heroics and a few good games has really struggled to cement his spot and find his best position.

 

[DangerousD]

Nowadays guys like Charlie, Hogan, Kennedy are more mobile and are more dangerous, but that has been the case for a while now

For all the buzz around Hogan and the hype that was bestowed upon him, i don't think he has lived up to expectation either. He's a good player but he's not a superstar. Kennedy on the other hand.

 

[Arr0w]

I beg to differ.

Patton has been a bust, even when he was injury free this year, he was having very little impact.

Cameron, was touted as a generational player and one to build the team around, despite having patches of brilliance in his career, he hasn't become the player many expected and his output has been down. It was also reported last week that compared to other forwards he is ranked last in terms of pressure.

Mcarthy, who i really rated in his first few years has struggled with the demands of AFL football and has stagnated.

Boyd, despite his GF heroics and a few good games has really struggled to cement his spot and find his best position.

Patton has done 3 knees

Cameron would walk into any side

McCarthy was pick 14, not pick 1, but concede he is yet to fulfill his potential

Boyd has mental health issues

Just quietly, Charlie and Harry go okay

So i think SOS's record for early KPFs is pretty good

 

[Arr0w]

For all the buzz around Hogan and the hype that was bestowed upon him, i don't think he has lived up to expectation either. He's a good player but he's not a superstar. Kennedy on the other hand.

Hogan who won the RS? He would also walk into any team

 

[bmaurizio]

Hogan who won the RS? He would also walk into any team[/QUOTE


Correct together with Lynch they're the two absolute stand out KPF, both elite talents and command respect in their mid twenties.

 

[DangerousD]

Hogan who won the RS? He would also walk into any team

I know he would walk in to any team, i am talking about the hype around him as a junior and him being billed as a once in a generation forward and comparing that to his current output.

Which i just checked, its pretty good.