Preview Cats V North Sun April 14 1pm @ GMHBA

[Art Vandelay_]

Somewhat sombre mood for Sunday. Worked at the club during games as 'MC' engaging with the crowd

 

[iameviljez]

Too many people here on Big Footy go on stats, stats, stats and more effen stats, it at times simple drives me crazy how obsessed certain Big Footy members are sucked into player stats whether at AFL or VFL level.

That's for a couple of reasons:
1) Gut feel is extremely hard to quantify and argue for. It's intangible, subjective, and very much prone to confirmation bias. Stats, at least, are objective, even if their interpretation is subjective.
2) At VFL level in particular, most people simply won't see much footy. Hence, stats.

 

[OzeSparky]

Somewhat sombre mood for Sunday. Worked at the club during games as 'MC' engaging with the crowd

RIP another good one gone to soon.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Thing with Bruhn was it was hard to see his ceiling as GWS had him playing as a forward when his ideal spot was as a mid.

Showed a lot last year, has gone on with it this year and I expect he will be even better the next 2 years and become crucial to our success.

The goal he kicked against Essendon early last year when he put a step on his opponent, left him grasping for air and then snapped from 35 on his left was the moment for me. Not many players can do that.

 

[iameviljez]

Wondering (out loud) whether they will play both Stanley and Conway this weekend? Only way that happens in my mind is if we rested Blitz

I wouldn't be in favour. Neither of them have a second position that they can play; it would be a waste of a bench spot.

 

[GeelongFTW]

I wouldn't be in favour. Neither of them have a second position that they can play; it would be a waste of a bench spot.

blicavs rest

 

[iameviljez]

blicavs rest

that doesn't change things, though. Unless you literally plan on having Stanley or Conway only playing 50% of the game, then one of them will have to play a position that is not the ruck.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Hearing we might see a first gamer this week.
Left field Mitch Hardie for Clark? or a straight up Lawson Humphries/COS for Tuohy?
Or probably just Knevitt coming back in...

 

[bombersboy]

My best guess
In: Neale, Mullin
Out: Hawkins - rest, Tuohy - injured

Tuohy could be out even without the injury cloud to be honest.

I'd love to bring Conway back in, but would we take him to the Gabba with us the next week? Don't want to bring him in for one week stints, and Stanley just had his best game for the last 2 years. Might still be worth it in the long run.

Give Danger another week off to recover fully, we are in a fortunate position at 4-0 that we dont need to rush anyone.

People want to give Hawkins a game to find "form" and get "confidence", the bloke has been one of the best in the business the last 10 years. Just had one game were he was well held. Personally I think we benefit more by sneaking a game into Neale, while giving Hawkins a week to recover.

I would love to be proven wrong but my gut says Neale will not make it. He has a distinct lack of urgency in his game and soft hands meaning he is a poor contested mark. If Rohan is anywhere near fit this week I would play him ahead of Neale. Neal needs to stay in the VFL until he shows some form. People make excuses for him due to poor delivery but if he has the tank people say he has he should be able to get way more involved than he does.

 

[Heckler]

I don't think Neale is good.

The more game a player plays the better he gets
Taller players need more time to develop

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Hearing we might see a first gamer this week.
Left field Mitch Hardie for Clark? or a straight up Lawson Humphries/COS for Tuohy?
Or probably just Knevitt coming back in...

Hardie/COS the only realistic options you'd think.

Hardie has been doing okay at VFL level, so it would make sense to bring him in to play a VFL opponent.

 

[Ratcat]

Mitch Hardie might be an interesting inclusion.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Thing with Bruhn was it was hard to see his ceiling as GWS had him playing as a forward when his ideal spot was as a mid.

Showed a lot last year, has gone on with it this year and I expect he will be even better the next 2 years and become crucial to our success.

There were flashes but it was one rotation here, a quarter in a praccy there.

All he has to do is what he has done so far but more consistently within games and he's a star

 

[standupand]

Hardie/COS the only realistic options you'd think.

Hardie has been doing okay at VFL level, so it would make sense to bring him in to play a VFL opponent.

It would make even more sense to bring him (Hardie) in to play an AFL opponent.
It's hard sometimes to know exactly how someone's game translates to the higher level. Take Close. I remember from game 1 when he came in as a mature age rookie to the AFL side in 2020 when GAJ was out, you could just see how clean and influential he was at the level. But he's the kind of player that might have otherwise spent a season or two at vfl level with people saying "he doesn't get enough of the ball", "needs to knock the door down" or whatever, and never realise what an asset we actually had in him.

 

[Heckler]

If Jezza kicked to his average we win by a few more goals, and if the umpires didn't look after the Doggies forwards the margin gets even bigger.

Bulldogs have a better midfield on paper than us, significantly more disposals and did little with it.
How often is Hawkins held goalless? Last year against the Dogs kicked 2 (1 GA), year before kicked 2 in both games against the dogs (with 1 GA in one game and 2 GA in the other). If he kicked to his average Sat night we win by 16 points against a team sitting 8th and pushing for finals. Not exactly like this happened against a team like North or WCE. Bulldogs have some very capable defenders that are good matches for our forwards. Not many teams have this.

As for Henry, he isn't a KPF but had 3 marks i50, only Jezza (4) and JUH (4) had more than he did.
He is equal 2nd with Hawkins this year (9) for marks inside 50 this season only behind Jezza (12). So while he isn't a KPF and he is "too small for big defenders" he has been out marking them or smashing his opponents on leads.

Who do you drop for Neale? Stengle? Nope. Henry? Nope. Close or Miers? Absolutely not. Hawkins if he needs a rest but thats the only player who you would take out of the team.
Maybe you consider bringing him in against Melbourne so that Hawk/Neale take May/Lever and play Jezza as a HF and let him go whereever.

Your argument did not address the point made.
Identifying the need for a tall power forward.
It is a reoccurring problem against top teams.
Not a diss on the other forwards you defend.
Just because the Cats forward line works OK
Does not mean it cannot still be improved.
Consider the potential benefits if successful
Every problem has a solution to be found.
Neale was the obvious choice to be tested
Especially as the designated future KPF
He must be given opportunity to develop.
Included on the bench and rotated in.
There are several ways this could be done
The player dropped need not be a forward.
Conway went forward and took a pack mark
How to best implement is up to coaches.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

I don't see why we'd rush Danger back against North. But hope to see Lawson , COS and Neale.

 

[Down at K Park]

I wouldn't be in favour. Neither of them have a second position that they can play; it would be a waste of a bench spot.

Stanley can, and has played forward for us. Many games for StK as a forward too. The 2 of them can play together, with Stanley going forward when Conway is rucking. Makes even more sense if Hawkins doesn't play.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

That's for a couple of reasons:
1) Gut feel is extremely hard to quantify and argue for. It's intangible, subjective, and very much prone to confirmation bias. Stats, at least, are objective, even if their interpretation is subjective.
2) At VFL level in particular, most people simply won't see much footy. Hence, stats.

I understand where you are coming from iameviljez: but I've never been one for stats and I never will, I'll always back my own judgment when it comes to a players football ability, capability and potential usefulness. Dogs midfield trio over weekend had of over 100 possessions which highlights my case to a small point, how could the Doggies possibly lose with the Bont, Libba and Treloar getting those numbers along with the three also being class distributors, yet they were a battling 28 points down late in third quarter. On the flip side, Geelong's unheralded midfield led by a very young Tanner Bruhn and having far fewer possessions looked far more dangerous and effective but everybody hasn't stopped talking about the Bulldogs threesome and their STAT numbers ever since that game and how great they were, STATS are a guide but nothing more.

Very, very, happy with Tanner Bruhn as he's extra tough for a little bloke and is extremely classy and there's much to like about Jack Bowes, has good footy brain and is plenty tough, along with Brendan Parfitt who's finally finding some much needed form and a young Jhye Clark who although getting caught with ball a couple of times, which can be expected due to lack of games and age but the kid is hard at 'every contest', so you've just gotta love that. Bring in Danger and Cam Guthrie with Gary Rohan idling in back ground, while also keep developing a young Toby Conway with some much needed AFL game time and the Pussy Cats are looking mightily good for remainder of the 2024 season barring another shocking run of injuries as per 2023 of which at this stage 'touch wood' looks highly unlikely.

 

[iameviljez]

Stanley can, and has played forward for us. Many games for StK as a forward too. The 2 of them can play together, with Stanley going forward when Conway is rucking. Makes even more sense if Hawkins doesn't play.

Five years ago I would agree, but certainly not now. Stanley’s marking is not what it was and even when he did rest forward (when we had Zac Smith) he was not a good goalkicker.

Plus we already have a stacked forward line

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Can anyone please buy this poster a full stop? My eyes are out of breath

iameviljez:..... I'll only buy a 'full stop' if you stop whinging, so perhaps I never will

 

[Lana]

I understand where you are coming from iameviljez: but I've never been one for stats and I never will, I'll always back my own judgment when it comes to a players football ability, capability and potential usefulness. Dogs midfield trio over weekend had of over 100 possessions which highlights my case to a small point, how could the Doggies possibly lose with the Bont, Libba and Treloar getting those numbers along with the three also being class distributors, yet they were a battling 28 points down late in third quarter. On the flip side, Geelong's unheralded midfield led by a very young Tanner Bruhn and having far fewer possessions looked far more dangerous and effective but everybody hasn't stopped talking about the Bulldogs threesome and their STAT numbers ever since that game and how great they were, STATS are a guide but nothing more.

Very, very, happy with Tanner Bruhn as he's extra tough for a little bloke and is extremely classy and there's much to like about Jack Bowes, has good footy brain and is plenty tough, along with Brendan Parfitt who's finally finding some much needed form and a young Jhye Clark who although getting caught with ball a couple of times, which can be expected due to lack of games and age but the kid is hard at 'every contest', so you've just gotta love that. Bring in Danger and Cam Guthrie with Gary Rohan idling in back ground, while also keep developing a young Toby Conway with some much needed AFL game time and the Pussy Cats are looking mightily good for remainder of the 2024 season barring another shocking run of injuries as per 2023 of which at this stage 'touch wood' looks highly unlikely.

Using a basket stat like disposals count is useful to convey information quickly. Stats don't start and end with possessions. Champion data collects stats in more than 100 categories, with both location and pressure data. Unfortunately they are gready and don't like to share.

But even publicly available stats can be used to tell a story.

We can start with the midfield battle. The clearance count 53-44, Tackles I50 count 16-6 the bulldogs way, suggests that the Bulldogs were ahead in setting up a favourable field position (how both team set up relative to where the ball is on ground and the goals) in the game. However you can only attempt a tackle if your oppenent has the ball, so after a I50 by the Bulldogs, they'd turnover the ball and be successful enough in chasing a Geelong player to takle them for 31% of their I50, as opposed to 11% for us(T50 are generally a good thing, closer the ball is to your goal to easier it is to score, but in this case can be an example of poor ball user rather than good pressure being applied). This ties well to the The raw turnover count 82-72. Both of these are good illustrations that the Bulldogs were more ineffecient at retaining the the ball then us.

Then you could watch the game and talk about how WB were unable to use the full width of the ground when moving the ball from D50 (the few times they did they cut us open especially late, good coaching would have had the runner come out about half way through the 4th quarter and told them to switch at all costs) where as we kept cutting the half wing open causing their I50s to be congested and our to be relatively more open(the more direct the ball moves through the centre of the ground the less time the other team has to flood players back). Unfortunately we don't get stats for ball moment so I could just be writing out of my ass.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Using a basket stat like disposals count is useful to convey information quickly. Stats don't start and end with possessions. Champion data collects stats in more than 100 categories, with both location and pressure data. Unfortunately they are gready and don't like to share.

But even publicly available stats can be used to tell a story.

We can start with the midfield battle. The clearance count 53-44, Tackles I50 count 16-6 the bulldogs way, suggests that the Bulldogs were ahead in setting up a favourable field position (how both team set up relative to where the ball is on ground and the goals) in the game. However you can only attempt a tackle if your oppenent has the ball, so after a I50 by the Bulldogs, they'd turnover the ball and be successful enough in chasing a Geelong player to takle them for 31% of their I50, as opposed to 11% for us(T50 are generally a good thing, closer the ball is to your goal to easier it is to score, but in this case can be an example of poor ball user rather than good pressure being applied). This ties well to the The raw turnover count 82-72. Both of these are good illustrations that the Bulldogs were more ineffecient at retaining the the ball then us.

Then you could watch the game and talk about how WB were unable to use the full width of the ground when moving the ball from D50 (the few times they did they cut us open especially late, good coaching would have had the runner come out about half way through the 4th quarter and told them to switch at all costs) where as we kept cutting the half wing open causing their I50s to be congested and our to be relatively more open(the more direct the ball moves through the centre of the ground the less time the other team has to flood players back). Unfortunately we don't get stats for ball moment so I could just be writing out of my ass.

Thanks for info Lana: did the Dogs have an extra at stoppage around ground with Cats extra/spare in defence, if so these types of tactics plus various other tactics go on all the time in AFL virtually by the quarter or even less in many circumstances which can and will give a distorted view when it comes to stat sheets. Then we also have centre bounce clearances where all is square but the difference between the quality of clearance can be poles apart which was very much the case on occasions on Saturday night between Dogs and Cats.

 

[Tandy]

Somewhat sombre mood for Sunday. Worked at the club during games as 'MC' engaging with the crowd

saddened to hear that. He was a good Geelong man and incredibly talented at his job

 

[iameviljez]

iameviljez:..... I'll only buy a 'full stop' if you stop whinging, so perhaps I never will

Oh no! It's the chicken and egg dilemma!

 

[iameviljez]

Champion data collects stats in more than 100 categories, with both location and pressure data. Unfortunately they are gready and don't like to share.

Admittedly they are a private company, so, y'know, unless they protect their IP...

We can start with the midfield battle. The clearance count 53-44, Tackles I50 count 16-6 the bulldogs way, suggests that the Bulldogs were ahead in setting up a favourable field position

I would be interested in looking at the clearance count by quarter - I actually got the feeling that we had the edge, if anything, up until obviously five minutes before three quarter time. Whole-of-game statistics don't tell the ebb and flow of the game; I felt that the last 35 minutes of the game were very, very, very different to the rest of it.