Caulfield Cup Day

[brooklynbute]

I was liking Ice Chariot at the big odds, but i found a little racing double that looked lucrative - Master O'Reilly into Diplomatic Force is paying $49....One is unbeaten at Caulfield over 2400 and the other is an absolute first up freak!!
Also got Nato into Mister Swinger at around the $41 mark which is good as well.

 

[the_fresh]

Meeting: Sat 18Oct2008 Caulfield

Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit Penetrometer: 5.21 Weather: Fine Track Rating: Dead 4 Track Type: Turf Total Scratchings: 5 General Comment: Updated 4pm 17/10 Irrigation: 4mm last 24 days - 23mm last 7 days Rainfall:
Track Information:



Scratchings

Race 5:
3 Rubiscent (ct 17/10 0800)

17 Aztec Smytzer (mg 17/10 9:31) Race 6:
12 Zipanese (JR 0758 17/10VC) Race 8:
5 Kibbutz (NZ) (JW 16/10 1005VC) Race 10:
8 Disciplined (mc 16/10 @10:17)
Race 1:
Like Lodore Falls
Looks to be no pace at all in this race, Cool Diva should lead, with Lodore Falls getting the sit. The unknown is Dubai Miss, first start for Michael Kent after being trained in NZ, watch the market.

Race 2:
Like Rocha
Meets Testa Monte 2kgs better at than at their last meeting when beaten an unlucky head. Longer trip, only worry is the lack of pace but could go more forward from barrier 1

Race 3:
I think anyone of the top rated horses can win here. Tindal is a real up & coming miler coming off a very good win last start, but meets Bhutane Dane & Heart of Dreams worse at the weights, Heart of Dreams was very unlucky last time and should have been closer. We'll get a guide on the sydney form with Caymans & Dr. Doutes beat a very good horse last time. Wide barrier has me thinking it''s only a place chance.
I don't think I want a bet in this race.

Race 4:
Liking Emperor Bonaparrte, It's run last start was huge when came from last to almost run down Rhyno Chaser, looks like it'll get the trip and if he can jump with them should get a nice run from barrier 7

Race 5:
El Cambio should be too good for them again, this horse flys fresh. 2 runs at 1400 are good and from barrier 2 I can see him getting a nice run, shouldn't get too far back and Macca is flying.

Race 6:
Mimi Lebrock should be too good for them, she was knocked down last start after setting on the pace, should have won IMO. She'll be better sitting one out, one back, she beat home Devil Moon here at her only go at the track.

Race 7:
I'm gonna have a few bucks each way on Alexander Of Hales.
His only fail at the 2000 was in the Turnbull Stakes, when beaten 6.2lengths, should lead and get a fairly soft run in front, Oilver sticks with him.

Race 8:
The Cup
Like all Caulfield cups they'll go hard for 800m, stack them up to the 800m and then the best sprint will take out the race.
Too many people have bagged W/end Hussler for not getting the 2000m in the Turnbull, have a look at the race, he came from barrier 13, Tuesday Joy played a cat & mouse game of keeping him out and Brad really couldn't do much if he went forward early I think we would have seen the real Hussler. Barrier 10 now here, which some have said is wide, but with no pace inside him & Mald & Mad Rush drawn outside him and All the Good taking him across I can see him sitting 5th or 6th getting the run of the race. He's the class horse of the field. Littorio's last start win to me seems a bit over rated, the SW&P conditions suited him, down in the weights for not winning a derby and with teh run he got that day was just too lightly weighted. I'm suss on the NZ form, if you read the CC facts thread you'll see all bar 1 of the last 20 winners have had a run in Australia, Douro Valley is suited back to the Handicaps after a WFA win last start and I'll be throwing in Mad Rush into my Multi bets.

Race 9:
Aichi beat a crack field in the Danehill and should be around the each way odds.

Race 10:
I hate the last races in melbourne, always a filly & mares race, always a hard race to work out and this a little harder with a few first up.
I think if you're gonna have a bet Interfere has the class edge.

My bets:
Best: Mimi Lebrock
Best E/w: Alexander Of Hales

Quaddie:
1, 4, 7
1, 2, 7, 9, 12
1, 3, 5, 10
1, 3, 5, 6, 9

Good luck, we'll need it

 

[Carpaccio]

I've used my own ratings system for last few years, and it's normally around the mark so here they are

Zagreb
Mad Rush
Ice Chariot
Weekend Hussler
Master O'Reilly
Boundless
Riva San
Red Ruler
Nom Du Jeu
Fiumicino
Viewed
Littorio
Douro Valley
Dolphin Jo
Guillotine
Barbaricus
All The Good
Maldivian

I dont take this as the correct order just shows me what horses not to back, I find the winner is almost always from the top half which rules out Littorio and although I don't think Maldivian will run last I wouldn't be going anywhere near him.
The only query is the Hussler, if he had at least ran out a 2400m he would be on top,it's worth noting the top 3 I couldn't separate on points and the next 3 were only 1pt behind them normally there is more of a difference.

 

[brooklynbute]

Race 3 - Nato

Race 4 - Emperor Bonaparte

Race 5 - Pinnicles

Race 8 - Master O'Reilly and Ice Chariot

Race 9 - Diplomatic Force

 

[Carpaccio]

r1 movin out
r2 freedom march
r3 dr doute's
r4 excelltastic
r5 el cambio
r6 tan tat de lago
r7 musket
r8 zagreb
r9 sunburnt land
r10 belle's ready

Good luck to everyone tomorrow

 

[KardiniaPark]

Meeting: Sat 18Oct2008 Caulfield

Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit Penetrometer: 5.21 Weather: Fine Track Rating: Dead 4 Track Type: Turf Total Scratchings: 5 General Comment: Updated 4pm 17/10 Irrigation: 4mm last 24 days - 23mm last 7 days Rainfall:
Track Information:



Scratchings

Race 5:
3 Rubiscent (ct 17/10 0800)

17 Aztec Smytzer (mg 17/10 9:31) Race 6:
12 Zipanese (JR 0758 17/10VC) Race 8:
5 Kibbutz (NZ) (JW 16/10 1005VC) Race 10:
8 Disciplined (mc 16/10 @10:17)
Race 1:
Like Lodore Falls
Looks to be no pace at all in this race, Cool Diva should lead, with Lodore Falls getting the sit. The unknown is Dubai Miss, first start for Michael Kent after being trained in NZ, watch the market.

Race 2:
Like Rocha
Meets Testa Monte 2kgs better at than at their last meeting when beaten an unlucky head. Longer trip, only worry is the lack of pace but could go more forward from barrier 1

Race 3:
I think anyone of the top rated horses can win here. Tindal is a real up & coming miler coming off a very good win last start, but meets Bhutane Dane & Heart of Dreams worse at the weights, Heart of Dreams was very unlucky last time and should have been closer. We'll get a guide on the sydney form with Caymans & Dr. Doutes beat a very good horse last time. Wide barrier has me thinking it''s only a place chance.
I don't think I want a bet in this race.

Race 4:
Liking Emperor Bonaparrte, It's run last start was huge when came from last to almost run down Rhyno Chaser, looks like it'll get the trip and if he can jump with them should get a nice run from barrier 7

Race 5:
El Cambio should be too good for them again, this horse flys fresh. 2 runs at 1400 are good and from barrier 2 I can see him getting a nice run, shouldn't get too far back and Macca is flying.

Race 6:
Mimi Lebrock should be too good for them, she was knocked down last start after setting on the pace, should have won IMO. She'll be better sitting one out, one back, she beat home Devil Moon here at her only go at the track.

Race 7:
I'm gonna have a few bucks each way on Alexander Of Hales.
His only fail at the 2000 was in the Turnbull Stakes, when beaten 6.2lengths, should lead and get a fairly soft run in front, Oilver sticks with him.

Race 8:
The Cup
Like all Caulfield cups they'll go hard for 800m, stack them up to the 800m and then the best sprint will take out the race.
Too many people have bagged W/end Hussler for not getting the 2000m in the Turnbull, have a look at the race, he came from barrier 13, Tuesday Joy played a cat & mouse game of keeping him out and Brad really couldn't do much if he went forward early I think we would have seen the real Hussler. Barrier 10 now here, which some have said is wide, but with no pace inside him & Mald & Mad Rush drawn outside him and All the Good taking him across I can see him sitting 5th or 6th getting the run of the race. He's the class horse of the field. Littorio's last start win to me seems a bit over rated, the SW&P conditions suited him, down in the weights for not winning a derby and with teh run he got that day was just too lightly weighted. I'm suss on the NZ form, if you read the CC facts thread you'll see all bar 1 of the last 20 winners have had a run in Australia, Douro Valley is suited back to the Handicaps after a WFA win last start and I'll be throwing in Mad Rush into my Multi bets.

Race 9:
Aichi beat a crack field in the Danehill and should be around the each way odds.

Race 10:
I hate the last races in melbourne, always a filly & mares race, always a hard race to work out and this a little harder with a few first up.
I think if you're gonna have a bet Interfere has the class edge.

My bets:
Best: Mimi Lebrock
Best E/w: Alexander Of Hales

Quaddie:
1, 4, 7
1, 2, 7, 9, 12
1, 3, 5, 10
1, 3, 5, 6, 9

Good luck, we'll need it

R4 . Agree i like the Emperor.

R6. Agree Go mimi, hope she's decent fixed odds?

R7. Agree again, BUT cant see him winning , i think he's good value in the trif though.

R8 I see your facts on the CC and i raise you that 16 out of the last 20 winners have come either first or run a place their previous race. Which rules out the hussler, and funnily enough also rules out my choice zagreb haha!!!!!. But im sure that wont stop either of us.

R9 . I agree aichi (this is getting sickening!) . I think its a 4 horse race but id have morgan dollar on top, from aichi, sunburnt lad and diplomatic force not neccesarily in that order.

 

[KardiniaPark]

A few other ill have as well

R2 Viva Dubai win, Freedom march ew @ the odds (id want $20+)

R3 F4 9/12346810/12346810/12346810

R5 Gotta have heart

R7 Baughurst

 

[warney7]

Race 1:
Movin' Out
Ballerina Girl
Dubai Miss (NTD)

Race 2:
Freedom March
Rocha
Testa Monte

Race 3:
Tindal
Heart of Dreams
Caymans

Race 4:
Trustus
Wookah
Excelltastic

Race 5:
El Cambio
Chasm
Stickpin

Race 6:
Mimi Lebrock
Bonded
Arapaho Miss

Race 7:
Musket
Kingda Ka
Mandela

Race 8:
Master O'Reilly
Douro Valley
Weekend Hussler

Race 9:
Diplomatic Force
Sunburnt Land
Aichi

Race 10:
Soaressa
Brazen Hussey
Sashenka

 

[samwise]

mkay watch this

$5.73 on heart of dreams to place @ $1.48 - just realised can only bet whole numbers
=8.48
$8.48 on el cambio to place @ $1.87
=15.858
$15.858 on mimi lebrock to place @ $1.85
=29.33 X - turns out to be $25 because $5 start not $5.73

then musket is $1.70 to place or red lord who is $2.12

and thus making a healthy $50 from $5
possibly put on sunburnt land for place but could be terrible odds

thoughts?

 

[Rough_Edges]

Race 1 - Mine Game
Race 2 - Estee
Race 3 - Heart Of Dreams (On him last time and had Oliver eased him across Bhuntane Dane's heels instead of going for inside runs he would've burned them. Ran home very quickly in the last 50)
Race 4 - Emperor Bonaparte
Race 5 - Turfontein
Race 6 - Gamble Me (wide barrier...might hurt, making up good ground over 1000 last week)
Race 7 - (my boy) Red Lord
Race 8 - Duoro Valley
Race 9 - Sunburnt Lad
Race 10 - La Goulue

 

[Rough_Edges]

Quaddie - Melbourne

2,4,7
1,3,7,9,12,16
3,5,10
1,5,9,12

****ed quaddie haha

Quaddie - Sydney

6,7,9,11
1,5
3,8
1,2,3,4,5,6,10,13



tough at both tracks

 

[rizzo]

This is my CC day:

1: Cool Diva (4)
2: Testa Monte(1)
3: Nato (8)
4: Pre Eminence (8)
5: El Cambio (2), Chasm (18)
6: Bonded (16) Speed of light
7: Baughurst (2)
8: Mad Rush (7), Litoritto (12)
9: Diplomatic Force (5)
10: Interfere (3)

Fingers crossed

 

[Ricketts]

r2 - Poco Gusto.

Even bunch of fillies, going with the one new on the scene who might keep improving the most.

r7 - New Spice.

Building up nicely in terms of both form and distance. Being from Perth he might not mind a hard track

r8 - Littorio.

A tick in every box i think - form, barrier, weight, distance. Looks the perfect big race for him considering young horses have done well in it recently.

 

[Hanis]

I'm on the emergency Barbaricus - 125 to 1 - watch him drop out and fly home at odds

Go the Grey!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[nicolbolas]

Race 1 - Mine Game
Race 2 - Estee
Race 3 - Heart Of Dreams (On him last time and had Oliver eased him across Bhuntane Dane's heels instead of going for inside runs he would've burned them. Ran home very quickly in the last 50)
Race 4 - Emperor Bonaparte
Race 5 - Turfontein
Race 6 - Gamble Me (wide barrier...might hurt, making up good ground over 1000 last week)
Race 7 - (my boy) Red Lord
Race 8 - Duoro Valley
Race 9 - Sunburnt Lad
Race 10 - La Goulue

Good start to the day!!!!!

 

[Effes]

Rough Edges 3/3

Superstar

The Effes curse didn't strike either

 

[danielz_23]

Race 1 - Mine Game
Race 2 - Estee
Race 3 - Heart Of Dreams (On him last time and had Oliver eased him across Bhuntane Dane's heels instead of going for inside runs he would've burned them. Ran home very quickly in the last 50)
Race 4 - Emperor Bonaparte
Race 5 - Turfontein
Race 6 - Gamble Me (wide barrier...might hurt, making up good ground over 1000 last week)
Race 7 - (my boy) Red Lord
Race 8 - Duoro Valley
Race 9 - Sunburnt Lad
Race 10 - La Goulue

3/3 indeed. Nice work

So far I've got Mine Game, Teste Monte (pl), Heart of Dreams. Just with little play bets, makes me a balance for a cup trifecta.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

1 bet with 1 win so far with HOD. Hopefully I can make it 2 out of 2 in the next with Excelltastic. Should be in with a good chance.

 

[rizzo]

4: Pre Eminence (8)

You beauty!

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Excelltastic had to lead to win and didn't. Great ride by Newitt on Pre Eminence, was giving the horse an almighty beating!

 

[Colin D'Cops]

My top pick in the next race is El Cambio. I expect it to be just off the pace, just behind the leader in 3rd and go WHOOOOSH in the last 200m or so. That's the plan, lets see how it goes.

 

[Danger Mouse]

What do people think of the track? First leader shot away then collapsed late and only just got nailed, then the next 4 winners have led and won easily. Looks like there might be a mad charge for the lead in the Cup!

 

[PAUL3232]

My top pick in the next race is El Cambio. I expect it to be just off the pace, just behind the leader in 3rd and go WHOOOOSH in the last 200m or so. That's the plan, lets see how it goes.

Crap ride by a crap jockey, rode it a treat the other week and today was never a chance.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Crap ride by a crap jockey, rode it a treat the other week and today was never a chance.

One of the worst rides I have ever seen. From barrier 2, got out well but went back from the start, was never going to get a run stuck on the rails and the jockey decided to pull the whip out with 50m to go which was pointless.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

I don't really fancy anyone in the next but if I had too, I'd choose Bonded. Ran well last start and Winks is due for a winner.